COMMENTS
Yeah baby we are in the sweet, sweet, sweet sixteen. It certainly wasn't an easy road for UConn to get here...injuries and foul trouble aside, catching Jackson State in the first round...no way Jackson State was a 12 seed...they were a much better team than a 12. Then Syracuse was no picnic...and when they brought UConn's lead down to 2 late in the fourth quarter I was sitting at the end of my couch...thinking unthinkable thoughts. But, KK dropped a big three and I began to breathe easier.
So, here we are in a sweet sixteen game against the Duke Blue Devils. I am trying hard to get thoughts of Jessica Foley's three-pointer at the buzzer that led to Duke's 68-67 victory over the UConn Huskies in 2004. Well, that was then and this is now! Duke is a young team they will start 1 freshman, 3 sophomores, and one senior. They bring pretty good size into the starting line-up: 6'6", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11", and 5'9". They tend to go pretty deep into the bench with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes.
Duke averages 66.9 points per game while holding their opponents to 58 points per game. They are not a prolific 3-point shooting team but when has that ever stopped UConn's opponents? It always seems that whoever UConn plays tends to give their best game. In any case, Duke averages 5.7 three-pointers per game. They pull down 38.2 rebounds per game.
UConn should be able to force this young team into turning the ball over. They average 16.7 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 17.1 times per game.
Duke's RPI is 17 and its SOS is 3 while UConn's RPI clocks in at 5 and its SOS is also 5. Duke's record is 22 and 11. They have lost to: Davidson; #6 Stamford in OT; #1 South Carolina; Clemson; #17 Louisville; #4 North Carolina State; Miami; #12 Virginia Tech; #16 Notre Dame; North Carolina; and #10 North Carolina State. Duke has beaten: #14 Virginia Tech; #23 Florida State; #17 Syracuse; #6 North Carolina State; and #7 Ohio State.
ANALYSIS
Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kennedy Brown, 6'6" - Aaliyah had a tough game against Syracuse...clearly, the defensive scheme was to double down on Aaliyah in the paint and to bump her hard and often in order, to try to get her into foul trouble. Aaliyah managed to stay out of foul trouble but she had a hard time putting the ball in the basket. Aaliyah was able to get a hard-fought double-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds.\, and 5 assists. She was effective on the defensive end with 2 steals and 1 block. She did have 5 turnovers as the Syracuse defenders had very active hands. Normally, Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1 block per game...I think she will get back on track against Duke in this match-up. Kennedy averages 8.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Jadyn Donovan, 6'0" - Jadyn averages 6.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Since Jadyn averages 22.3 minutes per game look for Oluchi Okinanwa to come off the bench she averages 12.2 minutes, 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 three-pointer, and 1.4 steals per game. It won't matter who is on the floor, Paige will dominate whoever she is playing off of. Paige is averaging 21.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Reigan Richardson, 5'11" - Reigan is Duke's most effective player and Nika always wants the assignment of defending their most effective player. Size wise they match up pretty well with each other. Reigan averages 12.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika's defense could disrupt Reigan's game plan. Nika is averaging 6.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Nika had a poor shooting night against Syracuse...probably because her defensive assignment was so demanding but, I expect to see Nika get back on track and contribute something on the scoring end. She also contributes in all the other categories and will impact her team more than Reigan does Syracuse. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Aslon Jackson, 6'0" - Aslon Jackson averages 9.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn Shade has been playing her best basketball in the post-season, which is exactly what we want to see. Ashlynn is averaging 11.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN
KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Taina Muir, 5'9" - Taina averages 9.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Taina is Duke's facilitator. KK will make things tough on Taina. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. Taina's averages are slightly better than KK's. ADVANTAGE - DUKE
BENCH
Duke will bring 23.6 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. They also have Camilla Emsbo, 6'5" on the bench. She averages 15.1 minutes, 4.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. UConn will have available 11.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. UConn also has Amari DeBerry, 6'5" on the bench...but, she rarely gets minutes, and she is unfortunately, consistently inconsistent.
ADVANTAGE - DUKE
INTANGIBLES
Neutral court, UConn has the advantage in talent and experience and has found a way to win despite all the adversity that they had to deal with this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN
COACHING
Kara has a wealth of player experience with her years of playing college basketball at Tennessee and her years in the WNBA, she has been doing a great job at Duke. Geno and his staff are unbelievably experienced and have coached in the sweet 16 many times before.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN
SCORE
UConn - 75
Duke - 64
MOV - 11