ANALYSIS and COMMENTS - UConn vs Duke - Sweet Sixteen (Game 3 - NCAA Tournament)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Yeah baby we are in the sweet, sweet, sweet sixteen. It certainly wasn't an easy road for UConn to get here...injuries and foul trouble aside, catching Jackson State in the first round...no way Jackson State was a 12 seed...they were a much better team than a 12. Then Syracuse was no picnic...and when they brought UConn's lead down to 2 late in the fourth quarter I was sitting at the end of my couch...thinking unthinkable thoughts. But, KK dropped a big three and I began to breathe easier.

So, here we are in a sweet sixteen game against the Duke Blue Devils. I am trying hard to get thoughts of Jessica Foley's three-pointer at the buzzer that led to Duke's 68-67 victory over the UConn Huskies in 2004. Well, that was then and this is now! Duke is a young team they will start 1 freshman, 3 sophomores, and one senior. They bring pretty good size into the starting line-up: 6'6", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11", and 5'9". They tend to go pretty deep into the bench with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes.

Duke averages 66.9 points per game while holding their opponents to 58 points per game. They are not a prolific 3-point shooting team but when has that ever stopped UConn's opponents? It always seems that whoever UConn plays tends to give their best game. In any case, Duke averages 5.7 three-pointers per game. They pull down 38.2 rebounds per game.

UConn should be able to force this young team into turning the ball over. They average 16.7 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 17.1 times per game.

Duke's RPI is 17 and its SOS is 3 while UConn's RPI clocks in at 5 and its SOS is also 5. Duke's record is 22 and 11. They have lost to: Davidson; #6 Stamford in OT; #1 South Carolina; Clemson; #17 Louisville; #4 North Carolina State; Miami; #12 Virginia Tech; #16 Notre Dame; North Carolina; and #10 North Carolina State. Duke has beaten: #14 Virginia Tech; #23 Florida State; #17 Syracuse; #6 North Carolina State; and #7 Ohio State.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kennedy Brown, 6'6" - Aaliyah had a tough game against Syracuse...clearly, the defensive scheme was to double down on Aaliyah in the paint and to bump her hard and often in order, to try to get her into foul trouble. Aaliyah managed to stay out of foul trouble but she had a hard time putting the ball in the basket. Aaliyah was able to get a hard-fought double-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds.\, and 5 assists. She was effective on the defensive end with 2 steals and 1 block. She did have 5 turnovers as the Syracuse defenders had very active hands. Normally, Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1 block per game...I think she will get back on track against Duke in this match-up. Kennedy averages 8.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Jadyn Donovan, 6'0" - Jadyn averages 6.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Since Jadyn averages 22.3 minutes per game look for Oluchi Okinanwa to come off the bench she averages 12.2 minutes, 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 three-pointer, and 1.4 steals per game. It won't matter who is on the floor, Paige will dominate whoever she is playing off of. Paige is averaging 21.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Reigan Richardson, 5'11" - Reigan is Duke's most effective player and Nika always wants the assignment of defending their most effective player. Size wise they match up pretty well with each other. Reigan averages 12.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika's defense could disrupt Reigan's game plan. Nika is averaging 6.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Nika had a poor shooting night against Syracuse...probably because her defensive assignment was so demanding but, I expect to see Nika get back on track and contribute something on the scoring end. She also contributes in all the other categories and will impact her team more than Reigan does Syracuse. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Aslon Jackson, 6'0" - Aslon Jackson averages 9.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn Shade has been playing her best basketball in the post-season, which is exactly what we want to see. Ashlynn is averaging 11.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Taina Muir, 5'9" - Taina averages 9.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Taina is Duke's facilitator. KK will make things tough on Taina. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. Taina's averages are slightly better than KK's. ADVANTAGE - DUKE

BENCH

Duke will bring 23.6 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. They also have Camilla Emsbo, 6'5" on the bench. She averages 15.1 minutes, 4.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. UConn will have available 11.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. UConn also has Amari DeBerry, 6'5" on the bench...but, she rarely gets minutes, and she is unfortunately, consistently inconsistent.
ADVANTAGE - DUKE

INTANGIBLES

Neutral court, UConn has the advantage in talent and experience and has found a way to win despite all the adversity that they had to deal with this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Kara has a wealth of player experience with her years of playing college basketball at Tennessee and her years in the WNBA, she has been doing a great job at Duke. Geno and his staff are unbelievably experienced and have coached in the sweet 16 many times before.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 75
Duke - 64

MOV - 11

 

[temery]

Please don't use the giant font. My guess is it's a problem with the way what you paste is handled by the boneyard's script. If so, let me know and I'll see if I can fix it on my end.

Thanks.

 

[Glenn]

Nice write-up, but I believe Amari is out for the tournament.

 

[cferraro04]

Please don't use the giant font. My guess is it's a problem with the way what you paste is handled by the boneyard's script. If so, let me know and I'll see if I can fix it on my end.

Thanks.

Hi Temery: I just have a question...not trying to be wise...just looking for an answer...why are you against the larger fonts? For the record, I do not cut and paste any of my posts. I research the information...then I write up the comments and analysis. These posts do take me all of an hour or more...to create. I have been choosing the larger fonts to make it easier for old folgies like me to be able to read them. Of course, if you really want me to stop using larger fonts I will but I just wanted to know why....I hope there is no problem in me asking.

 

[#12in21]

Hi Temery: I just have a question...not trying to be wise...just looking for an answer...why are you against the larger fonts? For the record, I do not cut and paste any of my posts. I research the information...then I write up the comments and analysis. These posts do take me all of an hour or more...to create. I have been choosing the larger fonts to make it easier for old folgies like me to be able to read them. Of course, if you really want me to stop using larger fonts I will but I just wanted to know why....I hope there is no problem in me asking.

I for one am always eager to read your analysis each game and I assume that is the case for most if not all of us on the Boneyard. Especially for these teams we haven't seen yet this season, your summary gives us a great lens as to what to look for in our next opponent. I am sure it takes you a considerable amount of time to put these together and your efforts are much appreciated.

Your analysis posts are kind of a unique fixture on here, so frankly although the font is larger, I have never really given it much thought. For me It's not at all like, say, some of the screaming (all bold) posts that we all know are a no-no. For me your analysis' are formatted and composed in a clear to the point manner and I without exception read them as soon as they popup while I am logged on. Thanks again for doing these for us.

 

[FormerCTrez]

COMMENTS

Yeah baby we are in the sweet, sweet, sweet sixteen. It certainly wasn't an easy road for UConn to get here...injuries and foul trouble aside, catching Jackson State in the first round...no way Jackson State was a 12 seed...they were a much better team than a 12. Then Syracuse was no picnic...and when they brought UConn's lead down to 2 late in the fourth quarter I was sitting at the end of my couch...thinking unthinkable thoughts. But, KK dropped a big three and I began to breathe easier.

So, here we are in a sweet sixteen game against the Duke Blue Devils. I am trying hard to get thoughts of Jessica Foley's three-pointer at the buzzer that led to Duke's 68-67 victory over the UConn Huskies in 2004. Well, that was then and this is now! Duke is a young team they will start 1 freshman, 3 sophomores, and one senior. They bring pretty good size into the starting line-up: 6'6", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11", and 5'9". They tend to go pretty deep into the bench with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes.

Duke averages 66.9 points per game while holding their opponents to 58 points per game. They are not a prolific 3-point shooting team but when has that ever stopped UConn's opponents? It always seems that whoever UConn plays tends to give their best game. In any case, Duke averages 5.7 three-pointers per game. They pull down 38.2 rebounds per game.

UConn should be able to force this young team into turning the ball over. They average 16.7 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 17.1 times per game.

Duke's RPI is 17 and its SOS is 3 while UConn's RPI clocks in at 5 and its SOS is also 5. Duke's record is 22 and 11. They have lost to: Davidson; #6 Stamford in OT; #1 South Carolina; Clemson; #17 Louisville; #4 North Carolina State; Miami; #12 Virginia Tech; #16 Notre Dame; North Carolina; and #10 North Carolina State. Duke has beaten: #14 Virginia Tech; #23 Florida State; #17 Syracuse; #6 North Carolina State; and #7 Ohio State.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kennedy Brown, 6'6" - Aaliyah had a tough game against Syracuse...clearly, the defensive scheme was to double down on Aaliyah in the paint and to bump her hard and often in order, to try to get her into foul trouble. Aaliyah managed to stay out of foul trouble but she had a hard time putting the ball in the basket. Aaliyah was able to get a hard-fought double-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds.\, and 5 assists. She was effective on the defensive end with 2 steals and 1 block. She did have 5 turnovers as the Syracuse defenders had very active hands. Normally, Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1 block per game...I think she will get back on track against Duke in this match-up. Kennedy averages 8.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Jadyn Donovan, 6'0" - Jadyn averages 6.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Since Jadyn averages 22.3 minutes per game look for Oluchi Okinanwa to come off the bench she averages 12.2 minutes, 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 three-pointer, and 1.4 steals per game. It won't matter who is on the floor, Paige will dominate whoever she is playing off of. Paige is averaging 21.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Reigan Richardson, 5'11" - Reigan is Duke's most effective player and Nika always wants the assignment of defending their most effective player. Size wise they match up pretty well with each other. Reigan averages 12.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika's defense could disrupt Reigan's game plan. Nika is averaging 6.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Nika had a poor shooting night against Syracuse...probably because her defensive assignment was so demanding but, I expect to see Nika get back on track and contribute something on the scoring end. She also contributes in all the other categories and will impact her team more than Reigan does Syracuse. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Aslon Jackson, 6'0" - Aslon Jackson averages 9.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn Shade has been playing her best basketball in the post-season, which is exactly what we want to see. Ashlynn is averaging 11.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Taina Muir, 5'9" - Taina averages 9.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Taina is Duke's facilitator. KK will make things tough on Taina. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. Taina's averages are slightly better than KK's. ADVANTAGE - DUKE

BENCH

Duke will bring 23.6 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. They also have Camilla Emsbo, 6'5" on the bench. She averages 15.1 minutes, 4.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. UConn will have available 11.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. UConn also has Amari DeBerry, 6'5" on the bench...but, she rarely gets minutes, and she is unfortunately, consistently inconsistent.
ADVANTAGE - DUKE

INTANGIBLES

Neutral court, UConn has the advantage in talent and experience and has found a way to win despite all the adversity that they had to deal with this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Kara has a wealth of player experience with her years of playing college basketball at Tennessee and her years in the WNBA, she has been doing a great job at Duke. Geno and his staff are unbelievably experienced and have coached in the sweet 16 many times before.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 75
Duke - 64

MOV - 11

Thanks for this write-up, as I always look forward to reading it.

 

[FormerCTrez]

COMMENTS

Yeah baby we are in the sweet, sweet, sweet sixteen. It certainly wasn't an easy road for UConn to get here...injuries and foul trouble aside, catching Jackson State in the first round...no way Jackson State was a 12 seed...they were a much better team than a 12. Then Syracuse was no picnic...and when they brought UConn's lead down to 2 late in the fourth quarter I was sitting at the end of my couch...thinking unthinkable thoughts. But, KK dropped a big three and I began to breathe easier.

So, here we are in a sweet sixteen game against the Duke Blue Devils. I am trying hard to get thoughts of Jessica Foley's three-pointer at the buzzer that led to Duke's 68-67 victory over the UConn Huskies in 2004. Well, that was then and this is now! Duke is a young team they will start 1 freshman, 3 sophomores, and one senior. They bring pretty good size into the starting line-up: 6'6", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11", and 5'9". They tend to go pretty deep into the bench with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes.

Duke averages 66.9 points per game while holding their opponents to 58 points per game. They are not a prolific 3-point shooting team but when has that ever stopped UConn's opponents? It always seems that whoever UConn plays tends to give their best game. In any case, Duke averages 5.7 three-pointers per game. They pull down 38.2 rebounds per game.

UConn should be able to force this young team into turning the ball over. They average 16.7 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 17.1 times per game.

Duke's RPI is 17 and its SOS is 3 while UConn's RPI clocks in at 5 and its SOS is also 5. Duke's record is 22 and 11. They have lost to: Davidson; #6 Stamford in OT; #1 South Carolina; Clemson; #17 Louisville; #4 North Carolina State; Miami; #12 Virginia Tech; #16 Notre Dame; North Carolina; and #10 North Carolina State. Duke has beaten: #14 Virginia Tech; #23 Florida State; #17 Syracuse; #6 North Carolina State; and #7 Ohio State.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kennedy Brown, 6'6" - Aaliyah had a tough game against Syracuse...clearly, the defensive scheme was to double down on Aaliyah in the paint and to bump her hard and often in order, to try to get her into foul trouble. Aaliyah managed to stay out of foul trouble but she had a hard time putting the ball in the basket. Aaliyah was able to get a hard-fought double-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds.\, and 5 assists. She was effective on the defensive end with 2 steals and 1 block. She did have 5 turnovers as the Syracuse defenders had very active hands. Normally, Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1 block per game...I think she will get back on track against Duke in this match-up. Kennedy averages 8.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Jadyn Donovan, 6'0" - Jadyn averages 6.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Since Jadyn averages 22.3 minutes per game look for Oluchi Okinanwa to come off the bench she averages 12.2 minutes, 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 three-pointer, and 1.4 steals per game. It won't matter who is on the floor, Paige will dominate whoever she is playing off of. Paige is averaging 21.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Reigan Richardson, 5'11" - Reigan is Duke's most effective player and Nika always wants the assignment of defending their most effective player. Size wise they match up pretty well with each other. Reigan averages 12.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika's defense could disrupt Reigan's game plan. Nika is averaging 6.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Nika had a poor shooting night against Syracuse...probably because her defensive assignment was so demanding but, I expect to see Nika get back on track and contribute something on the scoring end. She also contributes in all the other categories and will impact her team more than Reigan does Syracuse. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Aslon Jackson, 6'0" - Aslon Jackson averages 9.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn Shade has been playing her best basketball in the post-season, which is exactly what we want to see. Ashlynn is averaging 11.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Taina Muir, 5'9" - Taina averages 9.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Taina is Duke's facilitator. KK will make things tough on Taina. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. Taina's averages are slightly better than KK's. ADVANTAGE - DUKE

BENCH

Duke will bring 23.6 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. They also have Camilla Emsbo, 6'5" on the bench. She averages 15.1 minutes, 4.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. UConn will have available 11.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. UConn also has Amari DeBerry, 6'5" on the bench...but, she rarely gets minutes, and she is unfortunately, consistently inconsistent.
ADVANTAGE - DUKE

INTANGIBLES

Neutral court, UConn has the advantage in talent and experience and has found a way to win despite all the adversity that they had to deal with this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Kara has a wealth of player experience with her years of playing college basketball at Tennessee and her years in the WNBA, she has been doing a great job at Duke. Geno and his staff are unbelievably experienced and have coached in the sweet 16 many times before.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 75
Duke - 64

MOV - 11

In regards to Ashlon Jackson, I do remember her being recruited by UConn. And although I’m happy she’s thriving at Duke, I was a little sad when she chose the Duke blue instead of the Husky blue. Anyway, that was then, but now they get to play each other for the chance to move on to the Elite 8. Go Huskies! Go UConn!!

 

[temery]

Hi Temery: I just have a question...not trying to be wise...just looking for an answer...why are you against the larger fonts? For the record, I do not cut and paste any of my posts. I research the information...then I write up the comments and analysis. These posts do take me all of an hour or more...to create. I have been choosing the larger fonts to make it easier for old folgies like me to be able to read them. Of course, if you really want me to stop using larger fonts I will but I just wanted to know why....I hope there is no problem in me asking.

Because there are a number of people with vision problems or who just set preferences on their browsers to zoom-in all text. When we see your threads the large fonts become unreadable.

Beyond that, bolding all text, and or increased text size is considered shouting, and is difficult to read by many.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again for an excellent analysis, @cferraro04.

What I get from what you've given here, as well as watching a few recent Duke games, is that they play tough defense but aren't as skilled offensively as the big 3 on UConn. We've seen that a good defense can limit Aaliyah Nika Ice and KK. But it looks like Paige and Ash can score against this team, maybe any team. If I consider the last time they met -- without Paige or Dorka -- Aaliyah had the upper hand over Brown all game long. I wonder if Brown's defense has improved since then.

One thing I notice is that the Duke roster has turned over quite a bit. The only players from last season seem to be Brown Richardson and Jackson, and only Brown was a starter. Kara Lawson has done an excellent job of pulling this team together in one season. Richardson was the hero against tOSU and played well above her season average. if she can do that again, it will be a close game. If she can't someone else will have to, maybe Jackson is the only other candidate to step up in that way.

This is really a game for Ice to rediscover her confidence. She can compete with these guys. And I think you're right that KK will be a total headache for Mair, and Nika should be able to keep Richardson from repeating her heroics from last game. This means the burden will be on Jackson to create space for herself. Will Ash Nika and KK be able to prevent that? It will be interesting to see.

On offense, I imagine Paige will score 30+ if she has to (I hope she doesn't have to) and Ash will score 20. Against Brown, Aaliyah could score 18-20 with 10+ rebounds. But I'd really like to see Nika score 8-10 and Ice too. Nika and Kk shouldn't be afraid to shoot, and Ice is too great a talent to let jitters get in her way.

I'm also sure we'll see the usual pattern where we open up a lead and then our 6-woman-rotation gets tired and they close the gap, and then Paige and Ash step in and drop a few daggers to rouse the troops. What wouldn't I give to see Inês get some minutes!

One player you didn't mention is Delaney Thomas. I believe she's a friend of Q and Azzi. She visited Storrs a couple of times in high school but wasn't recruited. I wondered at the time if she would have fit in here. She's a strong quick kid who has excellent potential. She didn't get much playing time this season. Though foul trouble in the last game meant she got a lot of minutes and she acquitted herself really well. I hope she really blossoms next season. I also really hope Q gets some minutes, in part because I think there's room for her in this game, but also to have a chance to play against Delaney.

I think your score prediction is just about right, though I suspect the difference may be inflated by fouls in the closing seconds. The game in the 4th quarter may feel closer than 11 points.

 

[jdote33]

It's an interesting matchup. Kara Lawsons been a thorn on Uconn's side since the Bush administration.jk. I think she may have coached Paige in 3 on 3 competition as well. Overall I have no idea what to expect. Duke barely lost to Stanford at Stanford and played South Carolina pretty tough. They also beat Virginia Tech this season. They are super athletic on the wings and I'm sure will be physical, so I am a bit concerned for Ashlynn and Paige. AE last year had somewhat of a breakout game against them. It was kinda the first time I thought she could be the type of player she is today. I think she will have a good game. I think as the analysis pointed out, controlling the bench points will be big and I also hope in these upcoming rounds Nika can find a bit of her offense.

 

[Urshurak]

Appreciate it. I know very little about Duke, which is my own fault as I live in a Charlotte suburb.....

Seems to me by looking at their schedule that they can beat anyone, and lose to almost anyone. Thats a tough team to prepare for. Some of their wins are like "WOW" and some of their losses are like "WoW."

I honestly am not sure what to make of this one. Which Duke team shows up. I'm going to assume their best version. Everyone always seems to be able to shoot 3's against UConn (look at Syracuse, they couldn't miss fromt the arc.) Who knows? I pick UConn in a close one.

 

[schmendrick]

Consistently excellent write-ups, and the care and time you put into them. Thank you, @cferraro04.

 

[temery]

Hi Temery: I just have a question...not trying to be wise...just looking for an answer...why are you against the larger fonts? For the record, I do not cut and paste any of my posts. I research the information...then I write up the comments and analysis. These posts do take me all of an hour or more...to create. I have been choosing the larger fonts to make it easier for old folgies like me to be able to read them. Of course, if you really want me to stop using larger fonts I will but I just wanted to know why....I hope there is no problem in me asking.

Every browser has the ability to increase the font size for all sites. In Safari, it's in the url window.

 

[cferraro04]

Temery is a moderator here if he wants the font to be smaller then so be it. I was just looking for some clarity as to the reason why as I thought that enlarging and bolding parts of the posts would make it more readable. I will continue to bold and color the match-up names and the categories...but, I will reduce the font size and hopefully, it will not reduce the readability of the post. I appreciate the feedback on the post...as these analyses are a learning experience for me. Looking forward to this game and hope we punch a ticket to the Elite 8 and a visit with Ju Ju.

 

[temery]

Temery is a moderator here if he wants the font to be smaller then so be it. I was just looking for some clarity as to the reason why as I thought that enlarging and bolding parts of the posts would make it more readable. I will continue to bold and color the match-up names and the categories...but, I will reduce the font size and hopefully, it will not reduce the readability of the post. I appreciate the feedback on the post...as these analyses are a learning experience for me. Looking forward to this game and hope we punch a ticket to the Elite 8 and a visit with Ju Ju.

Ultimately, just a suggestion. I assumed initially it was just a mistake in the script.

 

[VA Huskie]

Temery is a moderator here if he wants the font to be smaller then so be it. I was just looking for some clarity as to the reason why as I thought that enlarging and bolding parts of the posts would make it more readable. I will continue to bold and color the match-up names and the categories...but, I will reduce the font size and hopefully, it will not reduce the readability of the post. I appreciate the feedback on the post...as these analyses are a learning experience for me. Looking forward to this game and hope we punch a ticket to the Elite 8 and a visit with Ju Ju.

I really appreciate and look forward to your analyses. Personally I like your format. But have no problem if it needs to change. Thanks for what you do. Hope we get to see your work in the Final Four!

 

[darrell]

I’m expecting Kara to put together some great defensive schemes for Paige. Her guards are scrappy defensively and can all get hot from the 3, which we’ve seen a lot of teams do against UConn over the past couple years.

UConn won last year’s neutral-site matchup by 28. Duke has since lost Liz Balogun, Day-Wilson and Celeste Taylor notably, but have Ashlon Jackson & Reigan Richardson in bigger roles and a pretty good transfer in Mair. Aaliyah outplayed Brown by a mile, but we’re without Aubrey, Azzi and Lou (but Paige is back!).

Duke is a bit smaller than Syracuse, so Aaliyah should bigger impact. As long as Nika stays out of foul trouble and we get some offensive contributions from both her and KK. I think we’ll see Q tomorrow, her length would definitely be an added both vs a smaller Duke team.

 

[triaddukefan]

Appreciate it. I know very little about Duke, which is my own fault as I live in a Charlotte suburb.....

Seems to me by looking at their schedule that they can beat anyone, and lose to almost anyone. Thats a tough team to prepare for. Some of their wins are like "WOW" and some of their losses are like "WoW."

I honestly am not sure what to make of this one. Which Duke team shows up. I'm going to assume their best version. Everyone always seems to be able to shoot 3's against UConn (look at Syracuse, they couldn't miss fromt the arc.) Who knows? I pick UConn in a close one.

There was an article in December about Duke (and a few others)

The idea of a Knife Kid is simple: it’s a kid running around with a knife, dangerous and unpredictable. Entertaining at first glance, until you fully register that it’s a kid with a knife, liable to hurt themselves if left unattended and likely to hurt you when you try to intervene.

A Knife Kid team is just the same: entertaining, as long as you’re not the one that has to play them because that can end very badly! They’re the kind of team that runs a high NET without actually earning an at-large bid in March, as their highest highs are offset by bewildering lows. And the past couple of weeks have seen a lot of Knife Kid teams swinging wildly and hitting everything in sight. Try to make sense of them, I dare you.


I posted on here in the fall that I can see Duke missing the tournament or making the Sweet 16.

A few examples of my favorite mercurial team

Down 17 to Stanford in the first quarter. Had a shot to win the game on the last play in regulation, missed the shot and lost by 3 in OT.
Down 15 points to SCar midway through the 3rd quarter... tied the game with 7:43 left in the 4th quarter
Down 13-1 to VPI, won the game by 17
Beat a ranked FSU squad by 42 points... could have been a 50+ pt spread easily.
Trailed Wake Forest by 17 points in the 2nd quarter.. Duke won by 23 points.
Had 27 turnovers at Syracuse, still led the Orange by 20 points in the 4th quarter
Led NC State by 20 points in the 3rd quarter
Down to Richmond 9 points at the half... won by double digits.
Down to Ohio State by 16 in 2nd quarter, won by double digits.

Of course, after we gave SCar a battle, we got blown out by a trash arse Clemson Team
Numerous examples of having single digit scoring quarters.

 

[CTBballfan243]

IMO opinion UConn is at best even with Duke in the post. I might even lean slightly to Duke being the favorite. Also, probably have to give Richardson the advantage over Nika. Richardson will provide some scoring for Duke where as Nika will most likely not contribute at all to the scoring for UConn. So Paige Advantage Uconn, the rest even to a slight advantage for Duke.

 

[maple]

Duke is the ultimate "knife kid" this season. The question is, which version of Duke is going to show up against UConn? I really can't say that I know.

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke is the ultimate "knife kid" this season. The question is, which version of Duke is going to show up against UConn? I really can't say that I know.

Honestly, Ohio State might have been an easier opponent. At least you know what you are getting playing the senior laden Buckeyes. Beat the press... slow down and contain Mcmahon, boom. Those kids from Duke , my hair has been graying rapidly since November

 

[DallasDomer]

There was an article in December about Duke (and a few others)

The idea of a Knife Kid is simple: it’s a kid running around with a knife, dangerous and unpredictable. Entertaining at first glance, until you fully register that it’s a kid with a knife, liable to hurt themselves if left unattended and likely to hurt you when you try to intervene.

A Knife Kid team is just the same: entertaining, as long as you’re not the one that has to play them because that can end very badly! They’re the kind of team that runs a high NET without actually earning an at-large bid in March, as their highest highs are offset by bewildering lows. And the past couple of weeks have seen a lot of Knife Kid teams swinging wildly and hitting everything in sight. Try to make sense of them, I dare you.


I posted on here in the fall that I can see Duke missing the tournament or making the Sweet 16.

A few examples of my favorite mercurial team

Down 17 to Stanford in the first quarter. Had a shot to win the game on the last play in regulation, missed the shot and lost by 3 in OT.
Down 15 points to SCar midway through the 3rd quarter... tied the game with 7:43 left in the 4th quarter
Down 13-1 to VPI, won the game by 17
Beat a ranked FSU squad by 42 points... could have been a 50+ pt spread easily.
Trailed Wake Forest by 17 points in the 2nd quarter.. Duke won by 23 points.
Had 27 turnovers at Syracuse, still led the Orange by 20 points in the 4th quarter
Led NC State by 20 points in the 3rd quarter
Down to Richmond 9 points at the half... won by double digits.
Down to Ohio State by 16 in 2nd quarter, won by double digits.

Of course, after we gave SCar a battle, we got blown out by a trash arse Clemson Team
Numerous examples of having single digit scoring quarters.

They played Notre Dame pretty well but lost by 8 at home. That game was very sloppy with 17 turnovers for ND and 21 for Duke. If a turnover fest starts again it won't be a pleasant experience.

 

[Ralph]

I would point that some the Dukies who score about the same as the UConn player they are being matched up with put up their numbers in 10+ fewer minutes. Better way to look at it would be say Ash versus these two Duke players, KK versus these 2. Suddenly a lot of our advantage goes away. You can call it bench but I see it as 2 players going against 1 and they have 10 fouls to give, we only have 5. I am scared we will see some foul trouble and so far that mostly has not gone well for us. We need Ice to get back to her Big East Tourney form, and it would be nice for Q to say: "end of season, time for me to step it up. I can't let the team down if they need me." Don't need to score a ton, play solid defense, rebound, and make a shot or two as a bonus. A roster of 7 is way better than a roster of 5. A few minutes of rest for the starters might be really nice.

 

[PJCLaw]

COMMENTS

Yeah baby we are in the sweet, sweet, sweet sixteen. It certainly wasn't an easy road for UConn to get here...injuries and foul trouble aside, catching Jackson State in the first round...no way Jackson State was a 12 seed...they were a much better team than a 12. Then Syracuse was no picnic...and when they brought UConn's lead down to 2 late in the fourth quarter I was sitting at the end of my couch...thinking unthinkable thoughts. But, KK dropped a big three and I began to breathe easier.

So, here we are in a sweet sixteen game against the Duke Blue Devils. I am trying hard to get thoughts of Jessica Foley's three-pointer at the buzzer that led to Duke's 68-67 victory over the UConn Huskies in 2004. Well, that was then and this is now! Duke is a young team they will start 1 freshman, 3 sophomores, and one senior. They bring pretty good size into the starting line-up: 6'6", 6'0", 6'0", 5'11", and 5'9". They tend to go pretty deep into the bench with 10 players averaging double-digit minutes.

Duke averages 66.9 points per game while holding their opponents to 58 points per game. They are not a prolific 3-point shooting team but when has that ever stopped UConn's opponents? It always seems that whoever UConn plays tends to give their best game. In any case, Duke averages 5.7 three-pointers per game. They pull down 38.2 rebounds per game.

UConn should be able to force this young team into turning the ball over. They average 16.7 turnovers per game while forcing their opponents to turn the ball over 17.1 times per game.

Duke's RPI is 17 and its SOS is 3 while UConn's RPI clocks in at 5 and its SOS is also 5. Duke's record is 22 and 11. They have lost to: Davidson; #6 Stamford in OT; #1 South Carolina; Clemson; #17 Louisville; #4 North Carolina State; Miami; #12 Virginia Tech; #16 Notre Dame; North Carolina; and #10 North Carolina State. Duke has beaten: #14 Virginia Tech; #23 Florida State; #17 Syracuse; #6 North Carolina State; and #7 Ohio State.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Kennedy Brown, 6'6" - Aaliyah had a tough game against Syracuse...clearly, the defensive scheme was to double down on Aaliyah in the paint and to bump her hard and often in order, to try to get her into foul trouble. Aaliyah managed to stay out of foul trouble but she had a hard time putting the ball in the basket. Aaliyah was able to get a hard-fought double-double with 11 points, 11 rebounds.\, and 5 assists. She was effective on the defensive end with 2 steals and 1 block. She did have 5 turnovers as the Syracuse defenders had very active hands. Normally, Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1 block per game...I think she will get back on track against Duke in this match-up. Kennedy averages 8.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Jadyn Donovan, 6'0" - Jadyn averages 6.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game. Since Jadyn averages 22.3 minutes per game look for Oluchi Okinanwa to come off the bench she averages 12.2 minutes, 9.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 three-pointer, and 1.4 steals per game. It won't matter who is on the floor, Paige will dominate whoever she is playing off of. Paige is averaging 21.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.4 blocks, and 2.1 three-pointers per game.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Reigan Richardson, 5'11" - Reigan is Duke's most effective player and Nika always wants the assignment of defending their most effective player. Size wise they match up pretty well with each other. Reigan averages 12.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Nika's defense could disrupt Reigan's game plan. Nika is averaging 6.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.1 steals, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. Nika had a poor shooting night against Syracuse...probably because her defensive assignment was so demanding but, I expect to see Nika get back on track and contribute something on the scoring end. She also contributes in all the other categories and will impact her team more than Reigan does Syracuse. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Aslon Jackson, 6'0" - Aslon Jackson averages 9.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, and 1 steal per game. Ashlynn Shade has been playing her best basketball in the post-season, which is exactly what we want to see. Ashlynn is averaging 11.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.8 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Taina Muir, 5'9" - Taina averages 9.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers per game. Taina is Duke's facilitator. KK will make things tough on Taina. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .8 three-pointers per game. Taina's averages are slightly better than KK's. ADVANTAGE - DUKE

BENCH

Duke will bring 23.6 points and 14.8 rebounds off the bench. They also have Camilla Emsbo, 6'5" on the bench. She averages 15.1 minutes, 4.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game. UConn will have available 11.1 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. UConn also has Amari DeBerry, 6'5" on the bench...but, she rarely gets minutes, and she is unfortunately, consistently inconsistent.
ADVANTAGE - DUKE

INTANGIBLES

Neutral court, UConn has the advantage in talent and experience and has found a way to win despite all the adversity that they had to deal with this season. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Kara has a wealth of player experience with her years of playing college basketball at Tennessee and her years in the WNBA, she has been doing a great job at Duke. Geno and his staff are unbelievably experienced and have coached in the sweet 16 many times before.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 75
Duke - 64

MOV - 11

Because they weren't a 12 seed, JSU was a 14 seed, which makes it even more surprising considering how well they played.