Analysis and Comments - Game 28 - UConn vs Creighton (game 2)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Game 2 with the Creighton Bluejays. UConn prevailed in the first meeting 94 to 50 in Omaha. In that game, UConn demonstrated a suffocating defense forcing 16 turnovers from a team that usually takes pretty good care of the basketball. UConn held a rebounding edge of 45 to 29. Creighton only hit 4 of 24 three-pointers while UConn went 9-19 from three-point. Even though this game is being played at the XL Center in Hartford...I expect Creighton to come to prove that they are a better basketball team than they showed in their first match-up. Emma Ronsiek has been playing strong of late averaging 18.1 points per game. Creighton is a very experienced team as they start 5 seniors. Creighton is 21-3 overall and 12-2 in the conference. UConn is 22-5 overall and 14-0 in conference play. Both teams are likely to make the NCAA tournament so this game is important to both teams as the outcome could have an impact on their seeding. Also, it is important for both teams to win the regular season conference title and to position themselves for the Big East Tournament.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Emma Ronsiek - 6'1" - Aaliyah is averaging 18 points, 9.3 rebounds, and shoots the ball at 61 percent from the floor. Aaliyah also contributes 1 block, 1.5 steals, and 2.2 assists per game. Emma is the Bluejay's best player averaging 18.1 points per game, 5.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists 1.2 steals, and 1 block per game..Emma could also step out and hit the three as she averages 1.3 three-pointers per game. Emma also shoots the ball at 48 percent from the floor. In the first match-up, Emma had 13 points and 1 rebound while Aaliyah had 16 points and 11 rebounds.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Morgan Maly - 6'1" - Maybe now that Paige has settled the question of the "Elephant in the room" she will be able to focus more on taking Geno up on his request that she shoot the ball more. However, shooting the ball wasn't Paige's problem the first time that UConn played Creighton this year. She had 24 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, and was 4-5 from three-point. She is currently averaging for the season 20 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.2 steals, 1 block, and 2 three-pointers per game. Morgan Maly is currently averaging 14.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, .8 steals, 2 three-pointers per game. In Creighton's first meeting with UConn Morgan had 7 points and 4 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Lauren Jensen - 5'10" - Nika is averaging 7 points, 4 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Lauren Jensen is Creighton's second-most effective player. She averages 17.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1 steal, and 2.3 three-pointers per game. When these two teams met on January 3rd, Lauren had 12 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 steal, and hit 2 three-pointers. Nika had 2 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 1 steal.
ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Mallory Brake - 6'0" - Ashlynn Shade is currently averaging 11.3 points, 3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Mallory Brake is averaging 5.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1 block per game. In their first meeting, Ashlynn had 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 1 block and she was 1-3 from three-point. Mallory had 2 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 steals, and was unable to hit from three-point.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Molly Mogensen - 5'7" - KK Arnold is currently averaging 9.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. She blows hot and cold from three-point land she goes from not scoring any threes in a game to scoring 4 in a game. Molly Mogensen is currently averaging 7.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 three-pointer per game. In their first match-up, Molly had 5 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 three-pointer. KK had 17 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and went 2-3 from three-point. Which KK will show up tomorrow? I think the right one...
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

UConn brings 11.4 points and 7.4 rebounds off the bench. Creighton brings 14.5 points and 8.4 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON

INTANGIBLES

This is a home game for UConn. Both teams will be hungry for this win as it is important for their post-season hopes. We've got Paige and they don't. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Creighton's coaching staff is doing a great job with the Bluejays, but Geno and his staff will not let this game get away from them.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 87
Creighton - 58

MOV - 29

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks for this, @cferraro04. I’ve been waiting on the edge of my seat.

I think you’re largely right in all your matchups. But UConn was a slightly different team than the one that held them to 26% shooting. Can we do that without Aubrey this time? She only played 12 minutes before she went down. But she was like a safety net for the freshmen.

It was also a breakout game for Ash and KK who scored 18 and 17 respectively. We’ll need similar performances from them this time around to dominate again. I think Ice has advanced in her game since then and that will help a lot. I hope Q feels a new defensive confidence, since she’s a difficult matchup for Creighton if Paige and Aaliyah are also on the floor.

And speaking of Paige and Aaliyah, I expect them to dominate. Paige will do whatever she wants on the floor and Aaliyah will be unstoppable in the post. And all Nika needs to do is shut down Lauren Jensen.

 

[#12in21]

I, as I'm sure many Boneyarders, look forward to and appreciate your analysis for each game. It takes a lot of work to stay up on all our opponents stats and trends. Thanks for doing that.

Looking at the analysis (season averages vs. performance in the first match up) I would have given Nika the advantage. Lauren obviously scores (and scored) more points than Nika but Nika slightly exceeded her averages in assists and rebounds, whereas Lauren had no assists and rebounds. Each was five points below their scoring average in the first matchup. I would argue that Lauren being held five points below her average while having no assists or rebounds hurt Creighton much more than Nika being five points below her average. If Nika can limit Lauren again this game it will be an advantage for UConn.

 

[Rowdy831]

Nika always seems to be the weak link in your assessment of the players yet she draws the toughest player to defend every night. Nika might be the most important player to UConn being successful because she plays defense the whole time she is in the game. She will hold he girl below her season average and force a lot of turnovers.

UConn will win this game but they better not put too much thought into the first match up.

 

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Game 2 with the Creighton Bluejays. UConn prevailed in the first meeting 94 to 50 in Omaha. In that game, UConn demonstrated a suffocating defense forcing 16 turnovers from a team that usually takes pretty good care of the basketball. UConn held a rebounding edge of 45 to 29. Creighton only hit 4 of 24 three-pointers while UConn went 9-19 from three-point. Even though this game is being played at the XL Center in Hartford...I expect Creighton to come to prove that they are a better basketball team than they showed in their first match-up. Emma Ronsiek has been playing strong of late averaging 18.1 points per game. Creighton is a very experienced team as they start 5 seniors. Creighton is 21-3 overall and 12-2 in the conference. UConn is 22-5 overall and 14-0 in conference play. Both teams are likely to make the NCAA tournament so this game is important to both teams as the outcome could have an impact on their seeding. Also, it is important for both teams to win the regular season conference title and to position themselves for the Big East Tournament.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards - 6'3" vs Emma Ronsiek - 6'1" - Aaliyah is averaging 18 points, 9.3 rebounds, and shoots the ball at 61 percent from the floor. Aaliyah also contributes 1 block, 1.5 steals, and 2.2 assists per game. Emma is the Bluejay's best player averaging 18.1 points per game, 5.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists 1.2 steals, and 1 block per game..Emma could also step out and hit the three as she averages 1.3 three-pointers per game. Emma also shoots the ball at 48 percent from the floor. In the first match-up, Emma had 13 points and 1 rebound while Aaliyah had 16 points and 11 rebounds.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers - 6'0" vs Morgan Maly - 6'1" - Maybe now that Paige has settled the question of the "Elephant in the room" she will be able to focus more on taking Geno up on his request that she shoot the ball more. However, shooting the ball wasn't Paige's problem the first time that UConn played Creighton this year. She had 24 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, and was 4-5 from three-point. She is currently averaging for the season 20 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 2.2 steals, 1 block, and 2 three-pointers per game. Morgan Maly is currently averaging 14.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, .8 steals, 2 three-pointers per game. In Creighton's first meeting with UConn Morgan had 7 points and 4 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl - 5'11" vs Lauren Jensen - 5'10" - Nika is averaging 7 points, 4 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.3 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. Lauren Jensen is Creighton's second-most effective player. She averages 17.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1 steal, and 2.3 three-pointers per game. When these two teams met on January 3rd, Lauren had 12 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 steal, and hit 2 three-pointers. Nika had 2 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists, and 1 steal.
ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON

Ashlynn Shade - 5'10" vs Mallory Brake - 6'0" - Ashlynn Shade is currently averaging 11.3 points, 3 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Mallory Brake is averaging 5.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.9 steals, and 1 block per game. In their first meeting, Ashlynn had 18 points, 5 rebounds, and 1 block and she was 1-3 from three-point. Mallory had 2 points, 1 rebound, 0 assists, 2 steals, and was unable to hit from three-point.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold - 5'9" vs Molly Mogensen - 5'7" - KK Arnold is currently averaging 9.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.3 steals. She blows hot and cold from three-point land she goes from not scoring any threes in a game to scoring 4 in a game. Molly Mogensen is currently averaging 7.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1 steal, and 1 three-pointer per game. In their first match-up, Molly had 5 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 three-pointer. KK had 17 points, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, and went 2-3 from three-point. Which KK will show up tomorrow? I think the right one...
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

UConn brings 11.4 points and 7.4 rebounds off the bench. Creighton brings 14.5 points and 8.4 rebounds off the bench.
ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON

INTANGIBLES

This is a home game for UConn. Both teams will be hungry for this win as it is important for their post-season hopes. We've got Paige and they don't. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Creighton's coaching staff is doing a great job with the Bluejays, but Geno and his staff will not let this game get away from them.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UConn - 87
Creighton - 58

MOV - 29

I agree with all your points...especially that Creighton is not the same team that we faced in Omaha in early January. Of course, neither are we...the loss of Aubrey is crucial and impactful. I accounted for this by lowering the MOV from 44 to 29. I did go back and forth on the Muhl match-up and I went with the lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot and gave Lauren Jensen the benefit of the doubt. However, I am with you and I would love to see Nika prove me wrong.

 

[cferraro04]

I, as I'm sure many Boneyarders, look forward to and appreciate your analysis for each game. It takes a lot of work to stay up on all our opponents stats and trends. Thanks for doing that.

Looking at the analysis (season averages vs. performance in the first match up) I would have given Nika the advantage. Lauren obviously scores (and scored) more points than Nika but Nika slightly exceeded her averages in assists and rebounds, whereas Lauren had no assists and rebounds. Each was five points below their scoring average in the first matchup. I would argue that Lauren being held five points below her average while having no assists or rebounds hurt Creighton much more than Nika being five points below her average. If Nika can limit Lauren again this game it will be an advantage for UConn.

Great post...I agree Nika is capable of disrupting Lauren Jensen...but, I am not sure she will be able to hold Lauren to an "ofer" in both rebounds and assists again. In that match-up, I erred on the side of caution.

 

[cferraro04]

Something that I did not factor into the analysis...is the time of day that UConn is playing this game. Athletes are like fine-tuned machines...if something is off they don't perform optimally. The noon start may have an impact on the way both teams play.