Analysis and Comments - Game 15 - UConn vs Georgetown

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

This game will be the first game without the services of Aubrey Griffin who brought the energy off the bench. It will be interesting to see what adjustments Geno will make with regard to his substitution pattern as well as his overall strategy concerning how the team plays. The bench is shorter now, and the luxury of trapping and full-court pressure will now be stressed as this team cannot afford for its players to get into foul trouble they just aren’t deep enough to absorb the loss of key players.

They still have enough talent to handle most of the regular season. Special attention will have to be given to the South Carolina, Notre Dame, Marquette (2) and Creighton (2) games. Hopefully, UConn can play its way into a number 2 seed for the NCAA tournament. If they can then it is possible for a deep run in the tournament maybe even to the final four.

Georgetown lost a key player in Kennedy Fauntleroy who was the Big East Freshman of the Year. Her entry into the transfer portal was a blow to the Hoyas. They also lost graduate guard Kristina Moore. However, the Hoyas did return 10 of their 14 players who represented 68 percent of the team’s scoring and played 67 percent of last year's minutes. They have an experienced core of players who will be matching up with a depleted UConn line-up that has sitting on its bench what could be a starting line-up for most teams in Division I of women’s college basketball; Azzi Fudd, Ayanna Patterson, Jana El Alfy, Caroline Ducharme and now Aubrey Griffin.

Additionally, the Hoyas as two graduate students: Alex Cowan who transferred from Wagner where she earned All-NEC honors twice and finished fifth in the conference in scoring last season; May Bembry who transferred within the Big East from Seton Hall where she had accumulated 68 career starts as a Pirate. She consistently placed among the team’s top rebounders.

The Hoyas have been playing this season as a memorial to their coach Tasha Butts who lost her two-year battle with breast cancer. They will be tenacious on defense and there will be no quit in this team. The current coaching staff is headlined by interim coach Darnell Harvey and two assistants Kelly Mazzante and Mariya Moore. Kelly spent 7 years in the WNBA after setting the Big Ten career scoring record and Mariya Moore logged 1700 points and was selected three times as All ACC.

The to-watch player is Kelsey Ransom, she is a preseason All-Big East selection who led Georgetown in points, rebounds, assists, and steals last season. Joining her are the starting forward duo of graduate Graceann Bennett and senior Jada Claude, who will anchor the Hoya frontcourt, as well as vital rotational pieces in junior forwards Brianna Scott and Kaliyah Myricks, junior center Ariel Jenkins and sophomore guard Modesti McConnell, all of whom played in at least 28 of the team’s 31 contests in 2022

The Hoyas are currently 12 and 2, having only lost to Brown and Seton Hall. Georgetown currently has an 88 RPI rating and is ranked 189 in SOS. I expect this game to be a tough one as the Hoyas so far this year have been able to hold their opponents to an average score of 49.6 points. They seem to be somewhat challenged on the offensive end only averaging 59 points per game. If UConn puts up 70 points or more it would be very difficult for the Hoyas to come away with a win. The Hoyas will have the advantage of playing in front of a home crowd so, I don’t think UConn will take this game to the 90s. I think this will be a low-scoring event.


ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards 6’3” Senior Forward vs Graceann Bennett, 6’3” Graduate Forward - Graceann averages 9.1 points and 7.4 rebounds per game and is a solid player but I expect Aaliyah to continue playing at what looks like an All-American pace. Her 16.9 points and her 8.6 rebounds per game will be a lot for Graceann to contend with. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6’0” Redshirt Junior Guard/Forward vs Brianna Scott, 6’4” Junior Forward - It is kind of weird seeing Paige playing out of position for this entire year but, the injuries coupled with the fact that UConn’s bigs are not yet ready for a starting line-up position necessitates Paige playing the Guard/Forward Position. So far it has paid off. While Brianna is putting up some good numbers at 9 points and 6.4 rebounds and is the Hoyas best shot blocker Paige will be too much for Brianna to handle and I would look for her to split time with Mya Bembry. It won’t matter though. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5’1” Senior Guard vs Kelsey Ransom 5’10 Senior Guard - Kelsey is the Hoyas floor general…averaging 15.4 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.7 steals. Kelsey will shoot a lot of threes but she only shoots them at .282. She also leads the team in TOs probably because she has the ball in her hands more than anyone else. Nika will have her hands full with Kelsey. Nika will have to be careful not to get into foul trouble as our options off the bench are limited. We will have to depend on Q or Bettencourt if Nika gets into foul trouble. Even with a good game from Nika…I still think Kelsey will score and have a major impact on the game. ADVANTAGE - GEORGETOWN

Ashlynn Shade 5’10 Freshman Guard vs Victoria Rivera 6’0” Sophomore Guard - Victoria Rivera has started in quite a few of Georgtown’s games. She can shoot the three and averages 1.6 per game while shooting the three at .272. Ashlynn has worked herself into averaging double figures and has been up around the 20-point mark in her last few games. She is growing in confidence with every game she plays. I don’t see any reason for that to change in this game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold 5’9” Freshman Guard vs Alex Cowan 5’7” Graduate Guard - Now here is a lop-sided match-up if you only consider experience. Alex is a very experienced college-level guard, however, KK is an unusually talented freshman who doesn’t play like one. KK is shooting the ball well from three, she is a thief and a half on defense, she is averaging 9.5 points per game, and is a good rebounding guard. ADVANTAGE - UCONN


BENCH

Boy did we take a hit with the loss of Aubrey…this weakens our bench greatly. UConn will bring 9.2 points and 6.2 rebounds per game off the bench. Georgetown will bring 14.5 points and 10.1 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN


INTANGIBLES

It is a home game for the Hoyas, They are playing emotionally for the memory of their former coach Tasha Butts, UConn is depleted with a short bench but the Huskies are too talented in every position. ADVANTAGE - EVEN


COACHING

I like the coaching staff at Georgetown but I will look to the experience of Geno and his staff to make the adjustments needed for UConn to come away with the win.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN


SCORE

UCONN - 75
GEORGETOWN - 52

MOV - 23

 

[Boreifs]

It seems like every game you give Nika the disadvantage in a matchup. You do that at your own peril; she is the team’s unquestioned leader. Just ask any of her teammates and/or any of the coaches.

 

[cferraro04]

Nika's impact on the team is of course extremely positive...is she vocal? YES. Is she a leader on the team? YES.. Is she "the unquestionable leader of THE team?" I think that job is split between the seniors: Aaliyah, Paige (who is technically a senior), Aubrey (Grad), and Nika. Some lead vocally, some lead by example but at the end of the day they all share in the leadership of the team. This analysis utilizes individual match-ups in this game Nika has a very difficult assignment. You might ask why my analysis always gives Nika a tough defensive assignment. The answer is simple...because Nika is UConn's best defender.

It is not always necessary for Nika to dominate her defensive assignment. It is enough that she makes life difficult for her opponent which forces the opposing team to have to go to other players who aren't necessarily the ones who normally lead the team. Also, a lot of tough defensive match-ups are mitigated when the team plays a zone and brings help. That being said...sometimes even the best defense isn't enough to stop the other team's best offensive weapon.

While UConn has been successful of late it doesn't negate the notion that most of the match-ups up and down the roster are difficult:

1. Aaliyah is almost always out-sized. Defenses collapse on her making scoring in the paint difficult.

2. Paige has been playing out of position the entire season. Instead of playing the shooting guard, she has had to slide over to the 3 and play small forward and on occasion has to play the 4...not easy when you are also being called upon to put the team on your back and lead in scoring night after night. Opposing teams develop their defensive strategy around stopping Paige...thank God they haven't been all that successful in achieving that task.

3. Nika has been asked to take on the other team's floor general...she is usually out-gunned in points scored. She has had to become a rebounding guard because we are height-challenged. Finally, in addition to all this added responsibility she is expected to lead the team in assists and to get everyone else involved. She had been doing an excellent job.

4. Ashlynn and KK are both true freshmen. They are being asked to grow up in a hurry and with only 14 games under their belts, they find themselves guarding experienced college-level upperclassmen.

All of these players have to perform every game because the bench is short, they can't afford to get into foul trouble, they must stay on the floor and play long minutes, they can't stand around and expect someone else to do it...there is no one else.

With UConn, because they are talented at every position...other teams have to pick their poison...So in an on-paper match-up like in this thread if we get 4 of the five positions to come out to our "ADVANTAGE" then we get the "W". As far as Nika getting the tough assignment and maybe coming up short on dominating her assignment offensively I don't think she would want it any other way.

 

[SCNCHuskie]

It seems like every game you give Nika the disadvantage in a matchup. You do that at your own peril; she is the team’s unquestioned leader. Just ask any of her teammates and/or any of the coaches.

I have noticed that Nika seems to always be on the short end of the comparisons. Whenever I see that I think, “Well, we don’t wanna give UConn the advantage in each category, so let’s sacrifice Nika.” Also, I always thought she was a little taller than 5’1”

 

[Skeets]

Here's the thing. Let's say Nika scores 6 and Ransom scored 8. Who won the match up? I'd say Nika because she held Ransom to 50% of her average. Same deal when Nika plays Clark. No way Nika is going to outscore Clark but if Clark complains "get that kid out of my face" Nika won the matchup.

 

[PvP]

I don't know about anyone else, but I have come to look forward to and to depend on these great pre-game analyses from @cferraro04! While we might quibble with any such analysis, he provides the information that we need to get more out of the subsequent game and to question our own preconceptions. I believe he deserves many kudos for these efforts and commend him accordingly.

 

[Topdawg]

I believe Nika will have high impact on the game. More assists, more rebounds, and more stops than her opposing player. Points will depend on her mindset, which is evolving.

 

[Centerstream]

I think that KK and Nika will split who they will be guarding and both can be effective against Ransom. Last season she was not very effective but as has been posted, she wasn't the focus of the Hoya offense.
BUT no matter who is defending her, they can't commit any silly fouls.

 

[Centerstream]

I believe Nika will have high impact on the game. More assists, more rebounds, and more stops than her opposing player. Points will depend on her mindset, which is evolving.

So true but I think that she will have to step up her scoring. Teams don't really defend her because of ability to get the ball to the other 4, so she should be able to take advantage. Looking forward to her establishing a mid range jumper from the lane. Now is the time.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thank you thank you thank you, @cferraro04. I've been watching out for your post!

I have a couple questions. Why Paige vs Bri Scott, who you list as a rotation player? And why Nika vs Kelsey? I get that she's their key player and Nika is our tough defender.

I have a feeling KK will spend more time on Kelsey than Nika does. But either way, I agree that Kelsey is the key to whatever Georgetown manages to do. Over the last few games, KK has become the sort of menace on defense that Nika has long been -- though perhaps with less control over fouling. Still I take your point about relative experience.

In previous meetings, when Kelsey has been healthy, she has led the Hoyas to hard fought games with UConn. Bella Fauntleroy was also key to some of those challenging games, and she is indeed a significant loss for them. Whatever it takes to contain Kelsey -- who is a threat on offense and defense -- that's what we need to do.

In the end, I think this game is going to come down to the front court, and this is a moment for Ice to really flex her muscles, so to speak. Aaliyah is more talented, stronger and quicker than Graceann, Brianna and Jada Claude, but they can put some significant size out there if Bri plays next to Graceann, and that will be difficult for Aaliyah to manage by herself. Putting Ice on the floor with her could be a way to solve the problem, but this is not a lineup Geno has wanted to run much this season, and it means we are a slower team for those stretches. I have a feeling his solution to when they have 'twin towers' on the floor is to make them run even more. I also suspect that Paige Nika KK and Ash will need to crash the boards a lot.

As a side note, Brianna is Christy Winters Scott's daughter, and is a childhood friend of Azzi.

 

[Centerstream]

I have a feeling KK will spend more time on Kelsey than Nika does. But either way, I agree that Kelsey is the key to whatever Georgetown manages to do. Over the last few games, KK has become the sort of menace on defense that Nika has long been -- though perhaps with less control over fouling. Still I take your point about relative experience.

I agree and want to add that both KK and Nika must avoid foul trouble, no matter which players they are guarding.

 

[OldSchooler]

The conclusion on bench strength doesn't seem to match the analysis. Was that a mistake?

 

[Bigboote]

It seems like every game you give Nika the disadvantage in a matchup. You do that at your own peril; she is the team’s unquestioned leader. Just ask any of her teammates and/or any of the coaches.

I think we'll see a lot of switching who guards Ransom. KK and Shade are both capable defenders.

I also think Nika might be covering Scott some. She relishes the challenge of covering bigs, and she's done very well at that in the last few games. We also might see Ice more than recently since Scott is 4" taller than Paige.

ETA: Didn't see Bone Dog's response before crafting this one. Great minds think alike.

 

[Rowdy831]

I have noticed that Nika seems to always be on the short end of the comparisons. Whenever I see that I think, “Well, we don’t wanna give UConn the advantage in each category, so let’s sacrifice Nika.” Also, I always thought she was a little taller than 5’1”

She definitely plays bigger than she is.

 

[Rowdy831]

The starting five is exactly what it has been for the past month. The only change will be Ice will sub in when Aubrey was coming in and that is something that won't hurt UConn as long as she does the same things offensively as Aubrey. She needs to drive the ball to the basket and draw fouls while being very selective on the three point shots. On defense Aubrey will be missed more but again Ice is capable she just hasn't been doing it. Should be a good opportunity for her to shine.

 

[Ralph]

I get tired of people saying KK and Shade are "only freshmen" you can't expect that much. Olivia MIles, now Hidalgo, Juju Watkins, they are or were "only freshmen". but they are great players? Well I think Ash and KK are great too.

 

[Geew1992]

It will be interesting to see which UConn team shows up. It’s seems, in the last couple of years. Every time there’s been an injury, the team comes out flat. And yes I know it takes a toll mentally

 

[cferraro04]

The conclusion on bench strength doesn't seem to match the analysis. Was that a mistake?

I agree OldSchooler the conclusion seems to be out of whack with the analysis...however, since our bench is so short it is unlikely that when a player comes off the bench she won't have the combined efforts of 4 starters on the floor with her. This dynamic will minimize the negative effects of our short bench producing fewer points and rebounds. Likewise, when Georgetown's bench players enter the game they will more than likely be playing against UConn's starters this will also limit Georgetown's bench players from being as effective as they usually are. I think this is one of those things that falls under "things aren't always what they seem"...lol, .

 

[cferraro04]

Thank you thank you thank you, @cferraro04. I've been watching out for your post!

I have a couple of questions. Why Paige vs Bri Scott, who you list as a rotation player? And why Nika vs Kelsey? I get that she's their key player and Nika is our tough defender. I went with Brianna Scott in the starting line-up because Georgetown will need as much firepower as they can get since they are going up against UConn's high-octane offense. I am just as a matter of conjecture thinking that Coach Harvey will be starting Brianna and bringing Mya Bembry off the bench. As far as Nika playing off Kelsey...I think she is our best defender and we need to slow Kelsey down. I just hope Nika can stay out of foul trouble.

I have a feeling KK will spend more time on Kelsey than Nika does. But either way, I agree that Kelsey is the key to whatever Georgetown manages to do. Over the last few games, KK has become the sort of menace on defense that Nika has long been -- though perhaps with less control over fouling. Still I take your point about relative experience. You may be right as I feel that both KK and Nika could get into foul trouble guarding Kelsey. They are our best hope when it comes to defending the other teams best guards.

In previous meetings, when Kelsey has been healthy, she has led the Hoyas to hard fought games with UConn. Bella Fauntleroy was also key to some of those challenging games, and she is indeed a significant loss for them. Whatever it takes to contain Kelsey -- who is a threat on offense and defense -- that's what we need to do. I do worry about Kelsey's impact on this game and I am hoping that by using our best defender / defenders against her we can cut off the head of the snake.

In the end, I think this game is going to come down to the front court, and this is a moment for Ice to really flex her muscles, so to speak. Aaliyah is more talented, stronger and quicker than Graceann, Brianna and Jada Claude, but they can put some significant size out there if Bri plays next to Graceann, and that will be difficult for Aaliyah to manage by herself. Putting Ice on the floor with her could be a way to solve the problem, but this is not a lineup Geno has wanted to run much this season, and it means we are a slower team for those stretches. I have a feeling his solution to when they have 'twin towers' on the floor is to make them run even more. I also suspect that Paige Nika KK and Ash will need to crash the boards a lot. I agree Aaliyah is the key to this game and that Ice Brady needs to step up and begin to become relevant as she may be called upon to mitigate Georgetown's bigger line-up.

As a side note, Brianna is Christy Winters Scott's daughter, and is a childhood friend of Azzi. Cool!

 

[Blond D.]

I agree OldSchooler the conclusion seems to be out of whack with the analysis...however, since our bench is so short it is unlikely that when a player comes off the bench she won't have the combined efforts of 4 starters on the floor with her. This dynamic will minimize the negative effects of our short bench producing fewer points and rebounds. Likewise, when Georgetown's bench players enter the game they will more than likely be playing against UConn's starters this will also limit Georgetown's bench players from being as effective as they usually are. I think this is one of those things that falls under "things aren't always what they seem"...lol, .

We might have a bit of a disagreement with some of your analysis but trust me when I say we LOVE your analysis plus respect and realize all the work it takes to do such a great job.
I for one and I think I speak for many when I say we look forward to reading the great job you do before every game.

 

[David54]

It seems like every game you give Nika the disadvantage in a matchup. You do that at your own peril; she is the team’s unquestioned leader. Just ask any of her teammates and/or any of the coaches.

It’s probably because Nika is only 5’ 1” tall.

 

[cferraro04]

It’s probably because Nika is only 5’ 1” tall.

Okay...so, my second key stroke on the one to make it 5'11" didn't take... Sue me...

 

[cferraro04]

We might have a bit of a disagreement with some of your analysis but trust me when I say we LOVE your analysis plus respect and realize all the work it takes to do such a great job.
I for one and I think I speak for many when I say we look forward to reading the great job you do before every game.

Thank you...I enjoy doing the research and learning about the other team and its players. It is easy to get UConn-centric when we are so spoiled each year by the great recruiting job our coaching staff does.

 

[Ironman23]

Nika is 5' 10".

 

[David54]

Okay...so, my second key stroke on the one to make it 5'11" didn't take... Sue me...

Knew it was a mistake but couldn’t resist. Nice post by the way!