An analytic look at the last few weeks

[Hey Adrien!]

Stats aren't everything, but they are helpful.

According to KenPom's website, although UConn is 1-5 in their last six games, throughout that timespan their overall rankings has dropped from 71 to 76.

It sucks that we haven't won the close, winnable games against Wichita State, Nova, Tulsa, Houston and Memphis, but we hung tough in all five of those games.

On my count, UConn has played 3 bad games this year. St. Joe's, Cincy and USF.

Last year, in the first 21 games, we played 5 bad games. The year before, 9 in the first 21.

It's probable we won't play a game after the AAC tournament, but there's progress to build on for next year and I'm excited to see how this team continues to develop throughout this season.

 

[WestHartHusk]

We have a different measure of bad games.

 

[Husky68]

So you see progress in a 6 game span where team shoots less than 39% from the field and less than 25% from 3 point range and lose 5 of the 6. Guess I just see bad offense, bad shooting and a staff that hasn't got the individual players to improve on the offensive end.
2020 so far shooting 41% overall and 32% from 3.
2019 shot 45% overall and 34% from 3.
I would call that lack of progress.
Just to give a little more context on our "improvement" from last year here are the two year rankings for field goal % and 3 point shooting %:
2020 FG% # 300 (out of about 350) tied with NJIT; 3Pt% #263 just .1% below NJIT.
2019 FG% #163 tied with Houston; 3Pt% #175 tied with Citadel.
I would like to see the offensive shooting %'s regress to last year's levels. If shot last year's average %'s in those 6 games would have won most of them.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

So you see progress in a 6 game span where team shoots less than 39% from the field and less than 25% from 3 point range and lose 5 of the 6. Guess I just see bad offense, bad shooting and a staff that hasn't got the individual players to improve on the offensive end.
2020 so far shooting 41% overall and 32% from 3.
2019 shot 45% overall and 34% from 3.
I would call that lack of progress.
Just to give a little more context on our "improvement" from last year here are the two year rankings for field goal % and 3 point shooting %:
2020 FG% # 300 (out of about 350) tied with NJIT; 3Pt% #263 just .1% below NJIT.
2019 FG% #163 tied with Houston; 3Pt% #175 tied with Citadel.
I would like to see the offensive shooting %'s regress to last year's levels. If shot last year's average %'s in those 6 games would have won most of them.

and yet you choose to ignore the defense metrics. offense gets the babes, but defense wins championships.

 

[the Q]

So you see progress in a 6 game span where team shoots less than 39% from the field and less than 25% from 3 point range and lose 5 of the 6. Guess I just see bad offense, bad shooting and a staff that hasn't got the individual players to improve on the offensive end.
2020 so far shooting 41% overall and 32% from 3.
2019 shot 45% overall and 34% from 3.
I would call that lack of progress.
Just to give a little more context on our "improvement" from last year here are the two year rankings for field goal % and 3 point shooting %:
2020 FG% # 300 (out of about 350) tied with NJIT; 3Pt% #263 just .1% below NJIT.
2019 FG% #163 tied with Houston; 3Pt% #175 tied with Citadel.
I would like to see the offensive shooting %'s regress to last year's levels. If shot last year's average %'s in those 6 games would have won most of them.

don’t forget that the 3pt line moved back again. I’m more interested in next years numbers with the players having a full year to adjust.

 

[Kathy]

don’t forget that the 3pt line moved back again. I’m more interested in next years numbers with the players having a full year to adjust.

Just a quick view on it's possible impact -

Here's how the NCAA's new 3-point line is affecting college basketball this season

An expanded arc this season will likely lead to the lowest 3-point percentage ever. But what other impacts has it had?

www.courier-journal.com

 

[Shine33]

So you see progress in a 6 game span where team shoots less than 39% from the field and less than 25% from 3 point range and lose 5 of the 6. Guess I just see bad offense, bad shooting and a staff that hasn't got the individual players to improve on the offensive end.
2020 so far shooting 41% overall and 32% from 3.
2019 shot 45% overall and 34% from 3.
I would call that lack of progress.
Just to give a little more context on our "improvement" from last year here are the two year rankings for field goal % and 3 point shooting %:
2020 FG% # 300 (out of about 350) tied with NJIT; 3Pt% #263 just .1% below NJIT.
2019 FG% #163 tied with Houston; 3Pt% #175 tied with Citadel.
I would like to see the offensive shooting %'s regress to last year's levels. If shot last year's average %'s in those 6 games would have won most of them.

Jalen Adams made a massive difference on the offensive end. Underrated. He got us a lot of good shots. He set up CV and now CV is setting up himself and the results are what you see. We need more playmakers and better shots will come. Bouk isn’t quite there yet. Adding one or two more shooter/playmakers for next year will make all the difference

 

[wheelerdog]

don’t forget that the 3pt line moved back again. I’m more interested in next years numbers with the players having a full year to adjust.

I've been on this all year. I think the new line has really affected Vital. Numerous front of the rim misses.

 

[UConnDad]

I’m far from happy with the losses. While the losses have been exasperating the games have been fun again. Until the end.

 

[SubbaBub]

It's really hard to miss the postseason with our level of recruiting. It's something else with this group. Maybe they all hit their ceiling in high school, can't figure out what it takes to win, not working on the little things, we'll never know, but they should be winning some of these games. You can see the talent is there.

 

[CL82]

So you see progress in a 6 game span where team shoots less than 39% from the field and less than 25% from 3 point range and lose 5 of the 6. Guess I just see bad offense, bad shooting and a staff that hasn't got the individual players to improve on the offensive end.
2020 so far shooting 41% overall and 32% from 3.
2019 shot 45% overall and 34% from 3.
I would call that lack of progress.
Just to give a little more context on our "improvement" from last year here are the two year rankings for field goal % and 3 point shooting %:
2020 FG% # 300 (out of about 350) tied with NJIT; 3Pt% #263 just .1% below NJIT.
2019 FG% #163 tied with Houston; 3Pt% #175 tied with Citadel.
I would like to see the offensive shooting %'s regress to last year's levels. If shot last year's average %'s in those 6 games would have won most of them.

How about margin of loss? It’s a heck of a thing to focus on but the bottom line is we are more competitive and all the cherry picked stats in the world doesn’t change that.

 

[Psolo12]

I've been on this all year. I think the new line has really affected Vital. Numerous front of the rim misses.

He always shot deep threes though. Idk if this is the problem.

 

[auror]

He always shot deep threes though. Idk if this is the problem.

More about muscle memory/calibration than range.

 

[mauconnfan]

Jalen Adams made a massive difference on the offensive end. Underrated. He got us a lot of good shots. He set up CV and now CV is setting up himself and the results are what you see. We need more playmakers and better shots will come. Bouk isn’t quite there yet. Adding one or two more shooter/playmakers for next year will make all the difference

CV isn't setting himself up c'mon. He's getting passes from AG, Gaffney, Bouk and everyone else and he's missing wide open 3's as well as the ones that are contested. He made contested 3s last year no doubt, he's streaky and has been. This year he's not even that from the floor.

No matter shooters are needed because even if Cole is the guy who can shoot they will double him or put a big guard on him to assure he's not the guy. Need multiple scorers on the court at the same time period, we have none with any consistency this year.

 

[bazz&boujee]

and yet you choose to ignore the defense metrics. offense gets the babes, but defense wins championships.

not if pat mahomes is your QB

 

[coachn]

Not satisfied with the season. Has been a disappointing year from player development and coaching stand point.
Like Hurley but the highest paid state employee should be getting better results.

 

[gwhuskyfan]

Losing your best 3 pt shooter will definitely impact those 3 pt stats as well

 

[the Q]

Just a quick view on it's possible impact -

Here's how the NCAA's new 3-point line is affecting college basketball this season

An expanded arc this season will likely lead to the lowest 3-point percentage ever. But what other impacts has it had?

www.courier-journal.com

good article, although this myopic nonsense about widening the lane is laughable.

 

[businesslawyer]

Stats aren't everything, but they are helpful.

According to KenPom's website, although UConn is 1-5 in their last six games, throughout that timespan their overall rankings has dropped from 71 to 76.

It sucks that we haven't won the close, winnable games against Wichita State, Nova, Tulsa, Houston and Memphis, but we hung tough in all five of those games.

On my count, UConn has played 3 bad games this year. St. Joe's, Cincy and USF.

Last year, in the first 21 games, we played 5 bad games. The year before, 9 in the first 21.

It's probable we won't play a game after the AAC tournament, but there's progress to build on for next year and I'm excited to see how this team continues to develop throughout this season.

So that shows the problem with the KenPoms, and many similar ratings services. They measure success possession by possession, but not by wins and losses. Let's say we have a 2 game homestand against Temple and Tulsa and they are ranked similarly. As I understand the KenPoms, the computer is largely indifferent to whether we go 2-O, winning both games by 5 points, or go 1-1, losing one game by 1 and winning the other by 11. Now, rating those two sets of results similarly may make sense as a pure predictor of future results (although that assumes that winning isn't a skill separate from how you play over the entire game, which I think this year's team has totally disproven -- note that the KenPoms view our failure to win close games as bad luck rather than a problem with our performance), but in reality 2-0 is totally different from 1-1 over those two games.

I think it's absurd to rank teams based on how "good" they are, meaning how likely they are to beat a given team on a given court in the next game, without giving far more weight to whether they are getting it done based on wins and losses.

 

[Shine33]

CV isn't setting himself up c'mon. He's getting passes from AG, Gaffney, Bouk and everyone else and he's missing wide open 3's as well as the ones that are contested. He made contested 3s last year no doubt, he's streaky and has been. This year he's not even that from the floor.

No matter shooters are needed because even if Cole is the guy who can shoot they will double him or put a big guard on him to assure he's not the guy. Need multiple scorers on the court at the same time period, we have none with any consistency this year.

Man you just love to argue small details with other posters. No one on this team is penetrating the way Jalen did last year. I think it made a huge difference in spacing for CV's shots. AG, even when he penetrates does not do a great job of distributing to others in their preferred "spots". CV is a guy who needs to be set up nicely in order to make a high percentage and I have seen him take alot more shots off the dribble this season which he misses a lot of them.

 

[ZenConn]

good article, although this myopic nonsense about widening the lane is laughable.

Unless our guys start to bulk up, widening the lanes would wreak havok on our defense. You can probably fit like 50 Akok's and Wilsons in the widened lane. Not to mention that it would take JC an extra 40 minutes go to from one side of the lane to the other.

 

[QDOG5]

Year 2 people, year 2. Hurley will tell you, Pikiell will tell you, it takes time when a program has been down. As far as on the court you shore up the defensive end first then you work on the offensive end. You recruit your butt off. Hurley has done it elsewhere twice and I trust he will do it again. Just imagine how athletic the team will be next year with Akok, Bouk, Sid and Andre on the court. With Chief manning the urinals it's a fait accompli.

 

[mauconnfan]

Man you just love to argue small details with other posters. No one on this team is penetrating the way Jalen did last year. I think it made a huge difference in spacing for CV's shots. AG, even when he penetrates does not do a great job of distributing to others in their preferred "spots". CV is a guy who needs to be set up nicely in order to make a high percentage and I have seen him take alot more shots off the dribble this season which he misses a lot of them.

Missing shots is not small details and I'm not arguing just pointing out facts. Jalen Adams penetrated to score he was never a great passer either. Hey maybe he had a few more open looks but am I wrong last year when he shot 40% when he was hot it didn't matter if he was open or not he just drilled them? He hasn't had that streakiness much this year at all, I feel bad for him he's a better shooter than what we're seeing but he can't even make them when he is open. Rough times for all.

I still think he'd be shooting a little better if Polley were in the lineup with him anyway and we'd pass it better because we'd have 2 guys to be sure don't get open. Just can't win. literally this year in so many ways.

 

[Shine33]

Missing shots is not small details and I'm not arguing just pointing out facts. Jalen Adams penetrated to score he was never a great passer either. Hey maybe he had a few more open looks but am I wrong last year when he shot 40% when he was hot it didn't matter if he was open or not he just drilled them? He hasn't had that streakiness much this year at all, I feel bad for him he's a better shooter than what we're seeing but he can't even make them when he is open. Rough times for all.

I still think he'd be shooting a little better if Polley were in the lineup with him anyway and we'd pass it better because we'd have 2 guys to be sure don't get open. Just can't win. literally this year in so many ways.

Looking at career assists JA averaged 4.3 assists per game over his career AG only 3.8 so far. Add the fact that Jalen was a better finisher inside and defenses definitely collapsed more from his penetration. I really think this is a big factor in our shooting woes particularly for spot up shooter like CV. Polley being gone doesn't help too you are right.

 

[mauconnfan]

Looking at career assists JA averaged 4.3 assists per game over his career AG only 3.8 so far. Add the fact that Jalen was a better finisher inside and defenses definitely collapsed more from his penetration. I really think this is a big factor in our shooting woes particularly for spot up shooter like CV. Polley being gone doesn't help too you are right.

Or you can say a team that can’t shoot certainly factor assists for AG because this team is by far the worst shooting team I can think of in all my years as a fan.