American This Year

[BFieldHusky]

This is a huge year for the conference with the addition of Wichita State, and the improvement of teams like UCF and Houston. I see the league like this.

The Top

1. Wichita State
2. Cincinnati

I think these two are clearly the best teams coming into the season. That being said, serious questions for both. Does Wichita State stumble know that they play quality teams more often that not, rather than maybe 1-2 teams in their league. For Cincy, can Cane Broom come in and help run that team? I think a lot of Cincy fans underestimate the kind of player Troy Caupian was. That being said, I would be very surprised if these 2 teams don't make the tournament this year.

The Next Level

3. SMU
4. UCONN
5. UCF

You could 3-5 in any order you please as far as I'm concerned. Questions about each roster, and a lot of roster turnover for all 3. But all 3 with potential elite guards: Shake Milton, Jalen Adams, and BJ Taylor. These teams should be tournament teams. If this conference is going to go to the next level, these teams are key. I still feel UCONN has the most talent in this conference from top to bottom, but we need to start showing results on the court.

Potential Bubble/NIT Teams

6. Temple
7. Houston
8. Tulsa

Temple is my dark horse in this league. They got back a senior guard in Brown, and they developed a lot of good young guards/wings last year. And they always play a tough OOC schedule. They could easily move to that next level. Houston and Tulsa if they play well could be bubble teams this year, but always seem to struggle OOC.

The Bottom of the League

Memphis had a crazy amount of turnover, and I just don't see them being great this year. Nothing to really add on the other 3. Dunleavy is a good coach, but it will take him time to develop that roster.

9. Memphis
10. East Carolina
11. Tulane
12. USF

Best case I could see this being a 6 bid league. Probably more likely to be 4-5. Much improved over the last couple of years.

 

[Son of Robert]

That's a really good breakdown. Props.

 

[WrenchFan69]

Nice post. I think Memphis has a sneaky good year. Sure they lack talent but Tubby has guys who want to be there and want to play for him and he's a better coach when that is the case. Think they'll be better than Tulsa at least. Also like USF to not be the worst team in the conference. It'd go a very long way for us to do well in OOC games this year if we're to get 5 or 6 in the dance. Need a good year.

 

[upstater]

Am I the only one who is very confident about UConn vs. UCF?

UConn handled them with the most dysfunctional team in decades. What's changed?

 

[Stainmaster]

Am I the only one who is very confident about UConn vs. UCF?

UConn handled them with the most dysfunctional team in decades. What's changed?

They have a handful of decent transfers (including Dawkins' kid from Michigan) who are miles ahead of the kids in their rotation last year.

For as much crap as Amida continues to get here, he did a pretty decent job on Tacko Fall, who may be guarded by someone 9-12 inches shorter than he is this year.

B.J. Taylor won't get the respect he deserves because his jersey says "UCF," but he's damn good.

 

[champs99and04]

I don't think there is much separation between the UConn/SMU/UCF tier and the Temple/Houston tier.

Honestly, there probably isn't a lot of separation 1-7. Not sure there are many leagues where the team that has the most talent (UConn) is picked to finish fourth or fifth. Wichita State and Cincinnati are high floor/low ceiling teams so I could see them getting walked down by gravity at some point.

UCF and Temple are the ones to watch, as you pointed out. Could easily see this being one of those years where we have no idea how the hell UConn and Cincinnati are playing in the 4/5 game of the conference tournament.

 

[champs99and04]

Am I the only one who is very confident about UConn vs. UCF?

UConn handled them with the most dysfunctional team in decades. What's changed?

We handled them once. The second game went down to the wire. Even though we swept them, they were better than us last year and return more pieces than we do. There is reason to believe that Fall will be one of the very best players in the country and if he improves this summer the way he did last summer, he might be the very best. They decapitated Memphis in the conference tournament last year before losing a competitive game to SMU and making a run to the NIT final four.

Where you watch Cincinnati and feel like you've watched the same team for seven straight years, there is a variance with UCF that's kind of fascinating. I watched them a lot last year and sometimes I felt that the only thing preventing them from being great was the fact that they weren't supposed to be. We'll see if Dawkins can take them to the next level because there is an infrastructure in place that's good enough to win the league outright.

 

[SamIamCassell]

This is a huge year for the conference with the addition of Wichita State, and the improvement of teams like UCF and Houston. I see the league like this.

The Top

1. Wichita State
2. Cincinnati

I think these two are clearly the best teams coming into the season. That being said, serious questions for both. Does Wichita State stumble know that they play quality teams more often that not, rather than maybe 1-2 teams in their league. For Cincy, can Cane Broom come in and help run that team? I think a lot of Cincy fans underestimate the kind of player Troy Caupian was. That being said, I would be very surprised if these 2 teams don't make the tournament this year.

The Next Level

3. SMU
4. UCONN
5. UCF

You could 3-5 in any order you please as far as I'm concerned. Questions about each roster, and a lot of roster turnover for all 3. But all 3 with potential elite guards: Shake Milton, Jalen Adams, and BJ Taylor. These teams should be tournament teams. If this conference is going to go to the next level, these teams are key. I still feel UCONN has the most talent in this conference from top to bottom, but we need to start showing results on the court.

Potential Bubble/NIT Teams

6. Temple
7. Houston
8. Tulsa

Temple is my dark horse in this league. They got back a senior guard in Brown, and they developed a lot of good young guards/wings last year. And they always play a tough OOC schedule. They could easily move to that next level. Houston and Tulsa if they play well could be bubble teams this year, but always seem to struggle OOC.

The Bottom of the League

Memphis had a crazy amount of turnover, and I just don't see them being great this year. Nothing to really add on the other 3. Dunleavy is a good coach, but it will take him time to develop that roster.

9. Memphis
10. East Carolina
11. Tulane
12. USF

Best case I could see this being a 6 bid league. Probably more likely to be 4-5. Much improved over the last couple of years.

This is a huge year for the conference with the addition of Wichita State, and the improvement of teams like UCF and Houston. I see the league like this.

The Top

1. Wichita State
2. Cincinnati

I think these two are clearly the best teams coming into the season. That being said, serious questions for both. Does Wichita State stumble know that they play quality teams more often that not, rather than maybe 1-2 teams in their league. For Cincy, can Cane Broom come in and help run that team? I think a lot of Cincy fans underestimate the kind of player Troy Caupian was. That being said, I would be very surprised if these 2 teams don't make the tournament this year.

The Next Level

3. SMU
4. UCONN
5. UCF

You could 3-5 in any order you please as far as I'm concerned. Questions about each roster, and a lot of roster turnover for all 3. But all 3 with potential elite guards: Shake Milton, Jalen Adams, and BJ Taylor. These teams should be tournament teams. If this conference is going to go to the next level, these teams are key. I still feel UCONN has the most talent in this conference from top to bottom, but we need to start showing results on the court.

Potential Bubble/NIT Teams

6. Temple
7. Houston
8. Tulsa

Temple is my dark horse in this league. They got back a senior guard in Brown, and they developed a lot of good young guards/wings last year. And they always play a tough OOC schedule. They could easily move to that next level. Houston and Tulsa if they play well could be bubble teams this year, but always seem to struggle OOC.

The Bottom of the League

Memphis had a crazy amount of turnover, and I just don't see them being great this year. Nothing to really add on the other 3. Dunleavy is a good coach, but it will take him time to develop that roster.

9. Memphis
10. East Carolina
11. Tulane
12. USF

Best case I could see this being a 6 bid league. Probably more likely to be 4-5. Much improved over the last couple of years.

I agree with your analysis and good job on it. However, this league has constantly been a 2 bid league in March and just because Witcha State joins the conference its suddenly a 5 bid league? I don't think so. At best we are getting 3 teams in the tournament and 1 is an automatic from winning the conference tourny. Sad but these are the facts.

 

[Jaybo]

The AMERICAN needs to have four teams at minimum in the tournament every year consistently.five would be great for this conference and could help recruiting. Uconn,Wichita st,Cincinnati and Smu should be tournament teams year after year. No reason one of temple,Houston,ucf,Tulsa and Memphis can't slip in on occasion.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

We handled them once. The second game went down to the wire. Even though we swept them, they were better than us last year and return more pieces than we do. There is reason to believe that Fall will be one of the very best players in the country and if he improves this summer the way he did last summer, he might be the very best. They decapitated Memphis in the conference tournament last year before losing a competitive game to SMU and making a run to the NIT final four.

Where you watch Cincinnati and feel like you've watched the same team for seven straight years, there is a variance with UCF that's kind of fascinating. I watched them a lot last year and sometimes I felt that the only thing preventing them from being great was the fact that they weren't supposed to be. We'll see if Dawkins can take them to the next level because there is an infrastructure in place that's good enough to win the league outright.

Tacko is a good player, but to suggest he will be one of the best players in the country, if not the best, is a strong reach.

 

[champs99and04]

Tacko is a good player, but to suggest he will be one of the best players in the country, if not the best, is a strong reach.

I don't know. He roared out of the gates last season before regressing in conference play. He averaged 16 & 12 OOC, and not all those games were against patsies - he put 26 and 12 on Mississippi State and 20 and 13 on Villanova. His advanced stats are across the board some of the best for any returning player in college basketball. UCF builds their entire defensive scheme around him in a way that no other team in the country builds around one player, and it seems to have paid off - they ranked 18th in the country last season in adjusted defense last season and could be even better this year.

There is no precedent for this player. Calling him a project would be an understatement - he's more of a science experiment. Human beings aren't supposed to be this big and it often seems, in watching him play, that the outcome is at the mercy of complete randomness. There is a discernible process to his growth that puts UCF, as a mid-major, in the odd position of having to manage a resource that swings a larger hose than anybody else on the floor at all times. It isn't that he's always going to be the best player so much as he's the one with the launch code. By all accounts, he's an extremely bright kid, and he demonstrated growth from year one to year two that allows for hope moving forward. If he can hold up physically, he's capable of doing things - specific things - that are possible at the college basketball but not the pro level due to the absence of defensive three seconds among other things. Whether he does them is anybody's guess - they'll need some luck because a lot of this is a matter of pure instinct that can be the difference between anchoring a dominant defense and fouling out in ten minutes.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

I don't know. He roared out of the gates last season before regressing in conference play. He averaged 16 & 12 OOC, and not all those games were against patsies - he put 26 and 12 on Mississippi State and 20 and 13 on Villanova. His advanced stats are across the board some of the best for any returning player in college basketball. UCF builds their entire defensive scheme around him in a way that no other team in the country builds around one player, and it seems to have paid off - they ranked 18th in the country last season in adjusted defense last season and could be even better this year.

There is no precedent for this player. Calling him a project would be an understatement - he's more of a science experiment. Human beings aren't supposed to be this big and it often seems, in watching him play, that the outcome is at the mercy of complete randomness. There is a discernible process to his growth that puts UCF, as a mid-major, in the odd position of having to manage a resource that swings a larger hose than anybody else on the floor at all times. It isn't that he's always going to be the best player so much as he's the one with the launch code. By all accounts, he's an extremely bright kid, and he demonstrated growth from year one to year two that allows for hope moving forward. If he can hold up physically, he's capable of doing things - specific things - that are possible at the college basketball but not the pro level due to the absence of defensive three seconds among other things. Whether he does them is anybody's guess - they'll need some luck because a lot of this is a matter of pure instinct that can be the difference between anchoring a dominant defense and fouling out in ten minutes.

He is very intelligent Talked to him at the Windsor Marriot for a half hour. Not only bright but personable, grounded and has a plan in life outside of basketball.

 

[upstater]

I agree with your analysis and good job on it. However, this league has constantly been a 2 bid league in March and just because Witcha State joins the conference its suddenly a 5 bid league? I don't think so. At best we are getting 3 teams in the tournament and 1 is an automatic from winning the conference tourny. Sad but these are the facts.

It hasn't constantly been a 2 bid league. In fact, in 2016, it was a 4 bid league, and Wichita State went that year as well.

I'm not saying it is going to get 5 bids, but the fact is, last year was a low point with 2 bids. The AAC did better in prior years.

 

[Wordbomar]

It hasn't constantly been a 2 bid league. In fact, in 2016, it was a 4 bid league, and Wichita State went that year as well.

I'm not saying it is going to get 5 bids, but the fact is, last year was a low point with 2 bids. The AAC did better in prior years.

2017-2
2016- 4
2015- 2
2014- 4

 

[bearcatmax]

I don't think there is much separation between the UConn/SMU/UCF tier and the Temple/Houston tier.

Honestly, there probably isn't a lot of separation 1-7. Not sure there are many leagues where the team that has the most talent (UConn) is picked to finish fourth or fifth. Wichita State and Cincinnati are high floor/low ceiling teams so I could see them getting walked down by gravity at some point.

UCF and Temple are the ones to watch, as you pointed out. Could easily see this being one of those years where we have no idea how the hell UConn and Cincinnati are playing in the 4/5 game of the conference tournament.

Not sure how you define "talent" but I think it's pretty clear WSU and UC have the best collection of players in the league. That's why they are the consensus picks for top two teams in the league.

Can't really speak for WSU since I only saw them a handful of times last year, but I think UC has a much higher ceiling this year with Broome and Cumberland replacing Caupain and Johnson. Broome (going off practice reports) and Cumberland are very dynamic offensive players, while Caupain was merely steady and often maddening on that end. Johnson was not a good offensive player by any metric. I don't think that is debatable. I think Keith Williams will be able to come in and provide what Cumberland did last year, so I see the transition away from Caupain and Johnson being a net positive.

Not buying the Temple hype to be honest. Rose could turn into a star, but as it stands their top returnee (Obi) is a big man that shoots 40% from the field and they are relying on a PG (Brown) coming off an achilles tear.

I think UConn definitely has the potential for a good year if Larrier and Gilbert are as advertised. They will need to find some quality in the paint though or they'll be have all sorts of trouble against WSU and UC. The rest of the league (aside from Tacko) is devoid of quality bigs, so it shouldn't be as much of an issue outside of those 4 games.

Apparently Sampson is really talking up the talent Houston has but they lose 1 player (Dotson) from a team that was a two man show. Davis could take a leap and maybe one of the newcomers is better than expected, but I see them closer to Tulsa/Memphis than UConn/UCF/Temple.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

They have a handful of decent transfers (including Dawkins' kid from Michigan) who are miles ahead of the kids in their rotation last year.

For as much crap as Amida continues to get here, he did a pretty decent job on Tacko Fall, who may be guarded by someone 9-12 inches shorter than he is this year.

B.J. Taylor won't get the respect he deserves because his jersey says "UCF," but he's damn good.

BJ Taylor is still there? Christ

 

[metsfan2323]

2017-2
2016- 4
2015- 2
2014- 4

Now add WS and you get 5-3-5-3.

 

[upstater]

Now add WS and you get 5-3-5-3.

2015 was SMU's ban year, correct? Should have been 3 teams.

 

[Wordbomar]

2015 was SMU's ban year, correct? Should have been 3 teams.

FWIW

 

[SubbaBub]

Not getting 5 bids. UConn isn't getting one unless it does really well in the non-conference. The league gets no respect inside the committee room regardless of what the results on the court are. Any and all close decisions go to the other conferences.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

Not sure how you define "talent" but I think it's pretty clear WSU and UC have the best collection of players in the league. That's why they are the consensus picks for top two teams in the league.

Can't really speak for WSU since I only saw them a handful of times last year, but I think UC has a much higher ceiling this year with Broome and Cumberland replacing Caupain and Johnson. Broome (going off practice reports) and Cumberland are very dynamic offensive players, while Caupain was merely steady and often maddening on that end. Johnson was not a good offensive player by any metric. I don't think that is debatable. I think Keith Williams will be able to come in and provide what Cumberland did last year, so I see the transition away from Caupain and Johnson being a net positive.

Not buying the Temple hype to be honest. Rose could turn into a star, but as it stands their top returnee (Obi) is a big man that shoots 40% from the field and they are relying on a PG (Brown) coming off an achilles tear.

I think UConn definitely has the potential for a good year if Larrier and Gilbert are as advertised. They will need to find some quality in the paint though or they'll be have all sorts of trouble against WSU and UC. The rest of the league (aside from Tacko) is devoid of quality bigs, so it shouldn't be as much of an issue outside of those 4 games.

Apparently Sampson is really talking up the talent Houston has but they lose 1 player (Dotson) from a team that was a two man show. Davis could take a leap and maybe one of the newcomers is better than expected, but I see them closer to Tulsa/Memphis than UConn/UCF/Temple.

On April 4 Brown was close to 100%. He put up 16, 9 and 5 in a Tourney game. That isn't hype it is reality. Cane Broome is much more hype per your practice reports. I like Broome. He is legit but against top competition I expect he will struggle as a shot maker.

Temple has a front court full of question marks. Those guards when healthy could be the best in the AAC this year. Both Broome and Brown are coming off years with limited or no playing time. So that could take time. Even Alani Moore is dangerous. The guy to keep an eye is Trey Lowe. He scored 21 vs Nova on the road (when Nova was ranked #1) during the 15/16 season I believe while hitting 5 treys before a car accident caused a redshirt in 2016/17. I really don't see the Temple hype nationally at all. They are under the radar.

 

[champs99and04]

Not sure how you define "talent" but I think it's pretty clear WSU and UC have the best collection of players in the league. That's why they are the consensus picks for top two teams in the league.

Can't really speak for WSU since I only saw them a handful of times last year, but I think UC has a much higher ceiling this year with Broome and Cumberland replacing Caupain and Johnson. Broome (going off practice reports) and Cumberland are very dynamic offensive players, while Caupain was merely steady and often maddening on that end. Johnson was not a good offensive player by any metric. I don't think that is debatable. I think Keith Williams will be able to come in and provide what Cumberland did last year, so I see the transition away from Caupain and Johnson being a net positive.

Not buying the Temple hype to be honest. Rose could turn into a star, but as it stands their top returnee (Obi) is a big man that shoots 40% from the field and they are relying on a PG (Brown) coming off an achilles tear.

I think UConn definitely has the potential for a good year if Larrier and Gilbert are as advertised. They will need to find some quality in the paint though or they'll be have all sorts of trouble against WSU and UC. The rest of the league (aside from Tacko) is devoid of quality bigs, so it shouldn't be as much of an issue outside of those 4 games.

Apparently Sampson is really talking up the talent Houston has but they lose 1 player (Dotson) from a team that was a two man show. Davis could take a leap and maybe one of the newcomers is better than expected, but I see them closer to Tulsa/Memphis than UConn/UCF/Temple.

They're the consensus best two teams in the league because they were both good last season and return a lot of players. I don't think the other teams - SMU, UCF, UConn, etc. - have lesser players so much as they are more difficult to handicap because of the uncertainty. Coaching plays a role, too. Marshall might get more out of his guys than anybody in the country and Cronin has been pretty consistent as well. What helps more than anything is that there is a continuity there that doesn't exist with most of the other rosters in the country.

I think UConn has a couple of players - Adams, Gilbert, maybe Larrier - that are in a different orbit talent wise than most of the other guys in the conference. The problem is that three of our four best players are under 6'3 and our one returning front court player is coming off an ACL tear...so I don't think Gilbert and Larrier will be at the peak of their powers next year whereas Cincinnati and Wichita State will have players running closer to their ceiling.

I don't necessarily know that Cincinnati is a team that has another gear. That's been the knock on them for some time now. They have talent, but they don't have talent that scares you. Arizona, Michigan State, Duke, Cal, etc...these are examples of teams with talent that scares me. Then again, that's a subjective fan description that a lot of people have applied to teams that have gone on to win championships. Villanova from a couple years ago comes to mind.

As a UConn fan, though, I always feel going into the Cincy match-ups that we will win if we do the things we're supposed to do. I even felt that way last year when we were dreadful and Cincy was like 17-1 in conference. That's different from expecting to win, but you get my point. We were so limited last year that everything had to go right for us to win, but there still existed a scenario where we won. That wasn't always the case with some of the other teams we played.

 

[bearcatmax]

On April 4 Brown was close to 100%. He put up 16, 9 and 5 in a Tourney game. That isn't hype it is reality. Cane Broome is much more hype per your practice reports. I like Broome. He is legit but against top competition I expect he will struggle as a shot maker.

Temple has a front court full of question marks. Those guards when healthy could be the best in the AAC this year. Both Broome and Brown are coming off years with limited or no playing time. So that could take time. Even Alani Moore is dangerous. The guy to keep an eye is Trey Lowe. He scored 21 vs Nova on the road (when Nova was ranked #1) during the 15/16 season I believe while hitting 5 treys before a car accident caused a redshirt in 2016/17. I really don't see the Temple hype nationally at all. They are under the radar.

The Temple hype hasn't been national but I've read some expect them taking a big leap in the AAC next year. I don't see it. They'll definitely be improved but I'd be surprised if they jump UConn, UCF, SMU, etc.

Re: Josh Brown
He's been an average/steady player for 3 years. One good game in the tournament doesn't change that. He could definitely help stabilize the team but I see him as just a guy and not someone that will push them up the ladder in the AAC.

 

[hardcorehusky]

Cincy's calling card is defense. Cumberland is not a defensive stalwart- let's see how his offense is affected by playing D. Also, Broome is stepping up a level. The jury is out. Kyle Washington is the difference maker if he is hitting his shots and unfortunately, Clark is back and he is the backbone of that team. But I agree that they don't have another level in the NCAA tournament.

 

[bearcatmax]

They're the consensus best two teams in the league because they were both good last season and return a lot of players. I don't think the other teams - SMU, UCF, UConn, etc. - have lesser players so much as they are more difficult to handicap because of the uncertainty. Coaching plays a role, too. Marshall might get more out of his guys than anybody in the country and Cronin has been pretty consistent as well. What helps more than anything is that there is a continuity there that doesn't exist with most of the other rosters in the country.

I think UConn has a couple of players - Adams, Gilbert, maybe Larrier - that are in a different orbit talent wise than most of the other guys in the conference. The problem is that three of our four best players are under 6'3 and our one returning front court player is coming off an ACL tear...so I don't think Gilbert and Larrier will be at the peak of their powers next year whereas Cincinnati and Wichita State will have players running closer to their ceiling.

I don't necessarily know that Cincinnati is a team that has another gear. That's been the knock on them for some time now. They have talent, but they don't have talent that scares you. Arizona, Michigan State, Duke, Cal, etc...these are examples of teams with talent that scares me. Then again, that's a subjective fan description that a lot of people have applied to teams that have gone on to win championships. Villanova from a couple years ago comes to mind.

As a UConn fan, though, I always feel going into the Cincy match-ups that we will win if we do the things we're supposed to do. I even felt that way last year when we were dreadful and Cincy was like 17-1 in conference. That's different from expecting to win, but you get my point. We were so limited last year that everything had to go right for us to win, but there still existed a scenario where we won. That wasn't always the case with some of the other teams we played.

You just named 4 of the top 5-6 teams in the country. Not sure what your point is there... I'm not arguing UC has that type of "talent."

re: Adams, Gilbert and Larrier
Definitely a talented core, but I completely disagree that they are in a different orbit talent wise. It seems you are defining talent as NBA potential. Those guys aren't the top NBA prospects at their respective positions in the AAC. And to your point about those guys not being close to their ceilings while others are (namely UC). Adams and Larrier are old juniors (both will be 22 before conference play). The other top juniors in conference: Jacob Evans (20), Markis McDuffie (20), Shake Milton (21), Jarrey Foster (21), Tacko Fall (22). Age isn't everything but it matters for development (and remaining potential) that they are older than their peers...