I look at Houston as a team that can hopefully make a big leap this year.
We know there are going to be some dreadful teams at the bottom - UCF, USF, Tulane, and probably ECU will all be bad losses.
UConn, Cincinnati, and SMU are all going to be very good. We all knew Tulsa would compete for a bid and with their win over Wichita State yesterday it looks like they're well on their way - I'd still place the fourth in the league but they are a good team that could win the AAC if things break right.
It's the other three teams - Memphis, Temple, and Houston - that will probably swing the perception of the conference in the eyes of the committee. Temple lost their best player from what was an NIT team last season and didn't instill much confidence in their opener against UNC (though the result was hardly surprising). It's critical that they bounce back tomorrow against Minnesota and find a way to go 3-1 in their Big 5 games. Memphis hung tough with a really good Oklahoma team but close doesn't earn you any points - it would have been a huge win for the conference and they blew a big opportunity (they still have chances for big wins against Ohio State, South Carolina, and Ole Miss). Houston has URI and LSU still to come.
Of course, it's just as imperative that the big boys take care of business. UConn, Cincinnati, and SMU all have to go at least .500 in their marquee match-ups if the league is going to get any. SMU plays @ Stanford tomorrow night and then they host Michigan December 8th. Cincinnati plays a very difficult OOC schedule (Butler, Xavier, VCU, Iowa State) and we all know what lies ahead for UConn.
It seems crazy in a sport that doesn't begin to matter to most people in March, but the AAC's reputation will be established by about a dozen games in November and December.