Al Jefferson to join Kemba on Bobcats

[Matrim55]

Ok matrim, since you seem to be into this sort of thing, who's going to be better next year? Bobcats or Celtics? How many games do they win respectively?

(clearly by your breakdown, you think Charlotte, but I'll ask it outright anyway....)

I think Charlotte will win between 37-43 games, Celtics somewhere between 28-35 or so - though I suspect that number will sink lower as they part with Rondo, Wallace and maybe even Green.

 

[intlzncster]

I think Charlotte will win between 37-43 games, Celtics somewhere between 28-35 or so - though I suspect that number will sink lower as they part with Rondo, Wallace and maybe even Green.

Why would they want to part with Green? A throw in to sweeten a trade?By all accounts, Ainge likes Green.

Not so sure they'll dump Rondo as people seem to think. They won't get a Top 10 for him, and he's worth more than that to the Cs.

Edit, fwiw: http://espn.go.com/boston/nba/story/_/id/9453011/brad-stevens-rajon-rondo-dynamic-key-boston-celtics

"Combine that with a good competitive spirit, and you've really got what he's been, and that's a really, really good player, one of the best players in this league. I can't wait to meet him. I can't wait to spend time with him. I hope that he can feel like, at the end of the day, he's learned a thing or two from me, but I'm guessing I'll learn a lot more from him."

While Rondo hasn't spoken publicly, all indications are he's just as intrigued to meet Stevens and wants to spearhead Boston's rebuild. Ainge phoned Rondo after the team hired Stevens and told him the news. Rondo's response?

"[Rondo said,] 'Oh, Is that the guy that coached Gordon Hayward and Shelvin Mack?'" recounted Ainge. "I go, 'Yeah, yeah, that's the guy.' [Rondo said,] 'Oh, yeah. That sounds great.'"

Stevens certainly knows how to play the ego game.

 

[champs99and04]

Kemba looks like Gary Payton when you compare him to Kyrie or Jose Calderon (or Will Bynum). Like you said, he's not great, but I think he's probably a bit above average when you factor in his ability to slip screens and prevent penetration so often on the pick-and-roll. When you consider what a huge part of the modern NBA that is, I think it's pretty huge. This also probably explains why the Bobs were nearly 3 points worse per 100 possessions defensively with him off the court.

Gordon and Jefferson are flammable, of course, which is why they're available. I honestly don't mind Jeff in 1v1 post situations to be honest, since he's big and strong enough to prevent deep post positions and at least makes it difficult on 5s. Where he's absolutely terrible is defending the pick-n-roll, and that's why Zeller should be such a good pick up.

Zeller long, and his agility is off the charts for a big man. He's going to blow up pick-n-rolls the way Varejao used to for Cleveland, which should improve Charlotte's D immensely. I don't even think it'll take him a lot of time to learn that part of the game - it's instincts with him.

I also have more confidence in their offense than you seem to. Jeff is going to get his 20/10 every night, and Kemba will continue to improve - especially now that he doesn't have to be the No. 1 option. I wouldn't be surprised to see him average 20/8, and shoot pretty close to 45%. Just having those two working together should be a huge boost, even if MKG and Zeller are offensive cyphers in the half-court.


Come on, they're clearly hellbent on tanking! They've replaced Garnett with either Fab Melo or Colton Iverson - you or I could play the 5 vs. them. And that's the key for the Celtics: they'll have some guys who can score, but without Garnett and Pierce, they're going to be as bad defensively as we've ever seen them. Nobody there who can protect the rim, nobody who can handle pick-n-rolls, and Bradley was exposed badly in the playoffs. Anybody who goes up against him is just going to put their biggest backcourt out there and back him down repeatedly.

I think they're meat, with or without Rondo.


I don't think that keeping Rudy means Toronto are going to be particularly good, or even "not terrible." They have four guys in their lineup who need the ball, and no one who I can see that's particularly adept at getting it to them. I think they max out a 35 wins.

You may have a point about Atlanta, especially if they sign-and-trade Smith for Asik (which is looking like a good possibility).

Regardless, I think Charlotte is a playoff team. If you have a 5 who can score and four other guys who can defend the pick and roll, you've got a very, very good shot at the postseason in today's NBA. I think that's what the Bobs have now.

EDIT: Really fun debate, by the way. I live for this sort of thing.

Kemba was an elite defender in college; I haven't seen more than fifteen of his games since he's turned pro, so I'm probably not the guy to assess how he's made the transition on that end of the court. From what most executives/scouts/writers seem to believe though, his defense has lagged behind his offensive game on the development curve, and that's where he'll need to improve to make the leap as a player. I think he has the tools to at least be a decent defender, but as we know, the NBA is stacked at the PG position and you're going up against an all-star caliber player every night, so adapting to the different animal that is the NBA game won't be easy. I didn't realize the Bobcats were three points worse per 100 possessions with him off the court. Then again, that stat could be a bit skewed by lurking variables (Kemba generally plays with the first unit).

I agree with you on Zeller - it seems doubtful he'll ever develop superstar abilities, but if his combine performance is any indication, he has the athleticism and foot-speed to hold his own defending the pick and roll. I don't think he will be enough to compensate for Al Jefferson's league worst pick and roll defense, though.

Between Rondo, Bradley, Green, and Bass, Boston has four quality defenders starting - Pierce and Garnett obviously leave a large void on both ends of the floor, but I think they'll still be solid defensively assuming nobody else leaves (which as you said, is a big assumption at this point). I don't think it's fair to chalk up a poor six games against a crafty, veteran guard in Raymond Felton as Bradley being "exposed" when he's otherwise been an elite NBA defender over a much larger sample size. Ultimately, Boston's place in the standings next season relative to Charlotte will depend almost entirely on whether they trade Rondo. If they keep him, I'd be shocked if they were worse than the Cats.

 

[Gurleyman]

I've watched Kemba a fair amount. He's a decent defender - not lockdown, but definitely not a liability. He works hard pressuring the ball, and was among the league leaders in steals last year. He doesn't take possessions off or make lazy mistakes and he helps well off the ball.

On the down side, he's a little undersized with a smallish wingspan, so bigger guards (or guards who play big like Westbrook) can shoot over him. From time to time, he tried to put too much pressure on the ball and was beaten too easily one on one (being smaller than the guy he's guarding usually means he can't make plays from behind). He's gotten better at keeping his man in front of him, though.

He also was put in some bad spots by the Charlotte defensive system - he got limited hedging help from the bigs. Instead, they've wanted Kemba to fight over the top of screens and recover to his man, which is very hard to do. I remember a game when Norris Cole got the better of him statistically (rookie year, so both came off the bench and matched up against each other a lot). But Cole got to come off high screens with an open lane to the basket or a pullup if he wanted it (even if LeBron was on the bench) whereas if Kemba came off a high screen at the other end, he'd be aggressively double-teamed and the Heat would cover the rest of the floor with their rotations. Some of that is based on personnel - when you either have slow-footed (Diop, Mullens) or raw (Biyombo) big men, you try to take responsibility off their shoulders.

Remains to be seen what happens with a new coach, new system, and new personnel.

 

[MilliniumPrince]

If Drummond played at UConn as he does in the NBA, he would have been #1.

Our guards thought passing into the post was a felony offense that year. Jazz and Lamb jacked up jumpers like they were being paid on a shot-per-game scale.

 

[Gurleyman]

The NBA game is also a lot different with spacing. In college, it is easier to double the post and help, or swarm an offensive rebounder. Even though Drummond was raw offensively and didn't need to be doubled, teams would collapse around him anyway, so he never had a lot of room to work with, and he sometimes showed his youth by being taken out of the game mentally when it wasn't coming easy. He doesn't get post feeds with the Pistons, either, but with the floor a little more spread out, he can use his size and speed to get to more rebounds. Even as good as he was, there were some invisible days too, usually when the guy matching up with him paid attention to the little details and kept a body on him at all times.

 

[uconnbill]

I think Bynum would have been a better signing. Cheaper, probably for 1 year, and more losses. even higher upside.thing is their ticket holders wouldnt like that. the cats need to hit the ball outta the park in the '14 and '15 draft.

Really go off of what, last year? Who knows what he would give any team of if he even cares. With Jefferson he will give you 15 pts. and 9 rebs. at the very least.

 

[Matrim55]

Given their recent moves, it looks like we can take Atlanta off the "obviously tanking" list.

 

[TheChamps990411]

Great pick up. if he is as good as he can be it opens things up for kemba. best case scenario kemba makes the all star team.

 

[caw]

I don't know what the Bobcats were thinking. I guess they want to be mediocre.

They did vastly improve their front court so far, but it's a year too early, IMO.

Next year they have a frontcourt rotation of: Zeller, Biyombo, Jefferson, McRoberts, Haywood and maybe Adrien. That is a huge upgrade over what they started last year with: Biyombo, Haywood, Thomas, Mullens, Diop.

I know a lot of folks don't like Zeller as a top 4 pick, but this was a horrid draft overall. I think he's a solid pick.

This hurts their chances at getting a top 3 pick (assuming other teams tank), but who knows if someone gets injured, or they get lucky in the lottery.

At the worst this should help Kemba get some easy assists and help with the spacing (doubling on Jefferson).

They currently go into the season with this roster:

PG: Kemba, Sessions
SG: ????, Gordon
SF: MKG, Taylor
PF: McRoberts, Zeller, Adrien (assuming not cut)
C: Jefferson, Biyombo, Haywood

Gordon has 13 million coming off the ledger next year and they still have a few picks coming their way, but if they miss out on the top 3 in next years draft that will hurt for years to come. If they had signed some players to one year contracts to fill gaps they could have had a top 3 pick (very likely) and 20+ million to throw at free agents.

In a vacuum I like Jefferson on the Bobcats, relative to what they had, but not when you consider potential ramifications with picks.

EDIT: On the plus side the best shooting guard prospects next year are likely not going in the top 5 (unless you count Smart).

 

[Gurleyman]

The trouble with banking on the ping pong balls is that you can't guarantee any better than fourth, no matter how bad you are. The last time there wasn't a bust in the top four was probably 1994 - Robinson, Hill, Kidd, Donyell. Too early to tell with the 2012 Draft of Davis-MKG-Beal-Waiters, and 2011 Draft of Irving-D. Williams-Kanter-Thompson, but 2010 doesn't look good already with Wesley Johnson (and Evan Turner is sorta meh at this point). We won't talk about 2009. Every year prior to that has a Stromile Swift or Eddy Curry or Jay Williams or Adam Morrison or Michael Olowakandi or Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Darko Milicic or Marvin Williams.

You could say that there has been a bust in the top three every year since 1994 as well, but it depends on how you feel about Okafor and Gordon in the 2-3 spots after Dwight Howard. Okafor has been a quietly productive if unspectacular pro, and Gordon had a brief flash of brilliance followed by kinduva thud. Shaun Livingston was picked fourth that year and might not have been a dud without his knee injury.

Wiggins does seem like a can't miss - and I know folks are high on Randle and Parker, without seeing them in college yet (Harrison Barnes and Andre Drummond were considered one-and-done and into the top 2-3 picks coming out of high school, and ended up going 7 and 9). But it just seems like too much uncertainty to throw away a season while other teams are also tanking with you. Plus you have to worry about Kemba (and perhaps Biyombo) after their rookie contracts expire - if they feel their careers are stuck in the muck, they may go somewhere else and leave your team with some new holes.

Maybe the Cats improve and win 35 games, and still win the lottery to get the best of both worlds. Odds are against it - but there's also a fair chance you get the 4th or 5th pick by tanking (see Celtics, when they went to plan B and traded for Ray).

 

[Huskyforlife]

I don't know what the Bobcats were thinking. I guess they want to be mediocre.

They did vastly improve their front court so far, but it's a year too early, IMO.

Next year they have a frontcourt rotation of: Zeller, Biyombo, Jefferson, McRoberts, Haywood and maybe Adrien. That is a huge upgrade over what they started last year with: Biyombo, Haywood, Thomas, Mullens, Diop.

I know a lot of folks don't like Zeller as a top 4 pick, but this was a horrid draft overall. I think he's a solid pick.

This hurts their chances at getting a top 3 pick (assuming other teams tank), but who knows if someone gets injured, or they get lucky in the lottery.

At the worst this should help Kemba get some easy assists and help with the spacing (doubling on Jefferson).

They currently go into the season with this roster:

PG: Kemba, Sessions
SG: ????, Gordon
SF: MKG, Taylor
PF: McRoberts, Zeller, Adrien (assuming not cut)
C: Jefferson, Biyombo, Haywood

Gordon has 13 million coming off the ledger next year and they still have a few picks coming their way, but if they miss out on the top 3 in next years draft that will hurt for years to come. If they had signed some players to one year contracts to fill gaps they could have had a top 3 pick (very likely) and 20+ million to throw at free agents.

In a vacuum I like Jefferson on the Bobcats, relative to what they had, but not when you consider potential ramifications with picks.

EDIT: On the plus side the best shooting guard prospects next year are likely not going in the top 5 (unless you count Smart).

no way in hell this is a bad move

 

[Matrim55]

Cody Zeller had a monster game (21 and 13) in the summer league today.

I actually think he's going to be very good, especially if he can hit an 18-footer. And his ability to finish the pick-and-roll is going to be perfect for Kemba, who's going to have a monster season.

 

[Palatine]

Jordan has had so many terrible draft picks, the law of averages have to kick in at some point. Drafting tends to be 50/50 but MJ always loses. Zeller could be one that turns out right.

 

[Matrim55]

They are not even remotely close to a playoff squad. Al Jefferson is an effective low post scorer and rebounder who is below average in every other aspect of basketball. I don't hate the signing because the Bobcats are short on respectable NBA players, but they overpaid and will probably have one of the worst records in the league again next season barring significant development from Kemba, MKG, and Zeller.

Bump

Bobcats clinched a playoff spot today as they moved over .500, 39/38 for the year. Jefferson has been a top-15 player in the league (arguably top 10) and the Bobs have a top 5 defense.

Kemba hasn't been shooting well, but his all-around game has been fantastic. Happy for him and for this franchise.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Bump

Bobcats clinched a playoff spot today as they moved over .500, 39/38 for the year. Jefferson has been a top-15 player in the league (arguably top 10) and the Bobs have a top 5 defense.

Kemba hasn't been shooting well, but his all-around game has been fantastic. Happy for him and for this franchise.

How can you not be a fan of a team who signed Jeff Adrian, drafted Kamba walker, and I run by Michael Jordan? I'm on their bandwagon

 

[dsturdy5]

Going to Boston on Friday to see Kemba...I plan on wearing my 2014 NCAA champions shirt.