Adjusting expectations for this seasons

[History Geek]

I predicted an 8 win regular season. It is now clear that was too optimistic. Before the season, I knew this prediction hinged on what I expected to be much better play from an offensive line that was a year older, stronger, and more mature. Looks like now that has not come to fruition. Having said that, while I'm disappointed I'm not entirely shocked because I knew an improved OL was not a given. What has floored me has been our difficulties on D. Did not see that coming at all. I have a serious question -- why has our defense, one that returned a majority of starters, performing much worse than last year? It isn't the turnover the interior of the DL -- I think the replacements have been doing well. Is it the loss of Adams? Would that make this much of a difference?

Because I am a glass half-full kind of guy, I now see 4-3 the rest of the way, getting us to 6-6. That's predicated on improvement as the season moves forward. I'm not entirely convinced that is going to happen, though.

 

[jazyj]

My expectations remain the same i knew going in to expect early disappointment

 

[JMick]

The most disappointing part for me is that we really could/should be 4-1 on our way to 6-7 wins no problem. Now I think we'll be lucky to win 5 games.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

I would say that part of it (which nobody has addressed yet) is that we lost quite a bit more than any of us realized with Campenni and Adeyemi graduating.

Last year we rotated quite a few linemen in throughout the game, keeping everyone fresh. Myers and Fatukasi stepping into starters roles may appear to be a reasonably even trade but beyond each being less talented at putting pressure on the QB than their predecessors, their backups haven't been able to do what they were capable of a year ago.

 

[History Geek]

Maybe our turnover ratio last year "inflated" our win total and contributed to my overestimating our chances this year.

 

[History Geek]

I would say that part of it (which nobody has addressed yet) is that we lost quite a bit more than any of us realized with Campenni and Adeyemi graduating.

Last year we rotated quite a few linemen in throughout the game, keeping everyone fresh. Myers and Fatukasi stepping into starters roles may appear to be a reasonably even trade but beyond each being less talented at putting pressure on the QB than their predecessors, their backups haven't been able to do what they were capable of a year ago.

Good point. Knowing the quality of what graduated, I've paid particular attention to Murphy and Awey when in there. They are young but I think they have done well. While the rotation was overall better last year, my sense is the drop off is not THAT great.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

What we've seemed to have lost is pressure (even if it doesn't lead to sacks) on the QB. JC & KA did that better last year than MM and FF this year. MM & FF were not only better at it last year than their replacements this year, they seemed to be better at it last year as rotation guys than this year as starters.

 

[History Geek]

What we've seemed to have lost is pressure (even if it doesn't lead to sacks) on the QB. JC & KA did that better last year than MM and FF this year. MM & FF were not only better at it last year than their replacements this year, they seemed to be better at it last year as rotation guys than this year as starters.

Maybe that is part of it. I would be able to tell without going back and looking at last year's film. I'm obsessed with this stuff, but not that obsessed.

 

[SubbaBub]

Bowl game, be mathematically in it for a share of the division title on the last weekend. Expectations haven't changed.

 

[History Geek]

Bowl game, be mathematically in it for a share of the division title on the last weekend. Expectations haven't changed.

I think that means going 5-0 in the division so the AAC record is 5-2 going into to the Tulane game. I think that is a tall order.

 

[UConnDan97]

9-3 regular season is still there to be had. It's still there to be had! Punch someone in %&king mouth, Huskies...

 

[BlueDogs]

Rinse and repeat...seen this thread about 30 times in the last 6 years.

 

[UC990411]

I predicted an 8 win regular season. It is now clear that was too optimistic. Before the season, I knew this prediction hinged on what I expected to be much better play from an offensive line that was a year older, stronger, and more mature. Looks like now that has not come to fruition. Having said that, while I'm disappointed I'm not entirely shocked because I knew an improved OL was not a given. What has floored me has been our difficulties on D. Did not see that coming at all. I have a serious question -- why has our defense, one that returned a majority of starters, performing much worse than last year? It isn't the turnover the interior of the DL -- I think the replacements have been doing well. Is it the loss of Adams? Would that make this much of a difference?

Because I am a glass half-full kind of guy, I now see 4-3 the rest of the way, getting us to 6-6. That's predicated on improvement as the season moves forward. I'm not entirely convinced that is going to happen, though.

This is what is wrong with this fantasy, accepting mediocrity. You're stairmaster2.0

 

[Uconnalliance]

I predicted an 8 win regular season. It is now clear that was too optimistic. Before the season, I knew this prediction hinged on what I expected to be much better play from an offensive line that was a year older, stronger, and more mature. Looks like now that has not come to fruition. Having said that, while I'm disappointed I'm not entirely shocked because I knew an improved OL was not a given. What has floored me has been our difficulties on D. Did not see that coming at all. I have a serious question -- why has our defense, one that returned a majority of starters, performing much worse than last year? It isn't the turnover the interior of the DL -- I think the replacements have been doing well. Is it the loss of Adams? Would that make this much of a difference?

Because I am a glass half-full kind of guy, I now see 4-3 the rest of the way, getting us to 6-6. That's predicated on improvement as the season moves forward. I'm not entirely convinced that is going to happen, though.

This season is just like my meds just add more xanex

 

[History Geek]

This is what is wrong with this fantasy, accepting mediocrity. You're stairmaster2.0

I'm not accepting mediocrity. I'm a realist, and I'm depressed.

 

[zls44]

Punch someone in %&king mouth, Huskies...

Thaaaaaaat would be an ejection.


This season is exactly what every computer simulation foretold. Last year's team was incredibly lucky. They aren't any better on the lines. They're losing games up front.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

9-3

 

[FartMan69]

Didn't most media outlets predict us to win 5 games? Of course we dismissed it because everyone in the world is against us.. but maybe we are who they thought we are. Time to crown their ass

 

[HuskyV]

Disappointed with the OL & D's ability to get off the field, but still were in position to win 4 of 5 games.

I have not seen the other teams on our schedule play, but do not expect to be out classed in any game & do not expect to blow anyone out. As bad as the AAC TV contact is, the teams are more competitive then most give credit. I do not know what the magic number will be, but the goal has to be win this week.

The thing I have been impressed with is the mental & physical toughness of the team. The kids are playing strong in the Q4. They have played the entire year from behind & have not given up (some 'yarders should take a lesson from the kids).

Winning mentality must be created from success on the field. Coaches can not come out the 4 corners offense in the 1st quarter ever again.

Changes I'd like to see:

• use the short passing game to set up the run in Q1
• more FB/TE leads on interior run plays
• less interior runs & more use of TE / screens / dump offs to #22; get him 1-on-1 with LBs
• more #16, less #29 at safety
• move #15 DT & #13 to DE on 3rd downs

 

[uconnphil2016]

I'm conflicted. Part of me wants and expects 6-6 and some crappy bowl. But we all know that 6-6 buys Diaco & Co more time and keeps us in mediocrity. Another part of me wants us to just tank so that Diaco has to be let go and we can start fresh. 3 wins and he is undoubtedly gone--no question. Don't care what the buy out is. 4 wins and it's a toss up. 5 wins and he's safe.

 

[Dooley]

My floor coming into the year was 7 wins. If we can somehow beat Cincinnati - which is MUCH easier to say than do - then 7 is still possible. Losing to the Fruit really hurt though. That was a game I was pretty confident in, coming into the season, of winning. This 3-game stretch of Houston, Cincinnati, and USF is all but a guaranteed 0-3 stretch. I would feel much better being 3-4 coming out of it than 2-5.

 

[uconnflyer88]

I'm conflicted. Part of me wants and expects 6-6 and some crappy bowl. But we all know that 6-6 buys Diaco & Co more time and keeps us in mediocrity. Another part of me wants us to just tank so that Diaco has to be let go and we can start fresh. 3 wins and he is undoubtedly gone--no question. Don't care what the buy out is. 4 wins and it's a toss up. 5 wins and he's safe.

What is your definition of mediocrity?

Year 1: 2-10
Year 2: 6-7 and a bowl

A bowl game in year 2 after a 2-10 season?

 

[freescooter]

By mat standard definitions a .500 finish constitutes mediocrity.

 

[BlueandOG]

This is what I see to get us to 6-6:

UC W
@USF L
UCF W, to retain the TROPHY
@ECU L
Temple L
@BC W
Tulane W

Maybe a miracle happens and we keep the Ws and squeeze out another one or two against USF (we almost always play them hard) or Temple.

 

[freescooter]

I'm not sure UCF Is the easy win everyone expected in August. Even Tulane might be a struggle and forget BC. None of those teams are any good but I don't think we are either. Maybe we squeeze out 4 more wins but I am hard pressed to find them right now. My expectation was 7 in August with 1 wtf win. Now it is 4 and if we don't get there I won't be shocked.