Adamec: Geno really really wants the S curve....1/8...2/7 etc

[Blakeon18]

Carl's article in Saturday's JI is interesting. He quotes Geno as strongly arguing
for the best one to be seeded with the worst 2 and so forth....geography shouldn't be a factor.
He says it will be a great tourney if they get the ones and twos right....doesn't care about the other seeds and
the factors going into those selections.

Carl predicts what may happen:

Albany:
1: UConn
2: Florida State
3: Arizona State
4: Princeton

Greensboro
1: South Carolina
2: Oregon State
3: Louisville
4: George Washington

Oklahoma City
1: ND
2: Baylor
3: Iowa
4: Kentucky

Spokane
1: Maryland
2 LadyVol
3: Stanford
4: Mississippi State

BTW: the first weekend games in Storrs are apparently still TBA in terms of whether
they will be Friday/Sunday or Saturday/Monday.

Carl guesses that either St. Francis [NY] or Robert Morris will be our 16.
The 8/9 game? He says maybe Syracuse/Seton Hall.

We know that UConn and South Florida will be in the NCAA's.
Maybe Tulane? Carl says their RPI is 51 with wins over LSU and Miami.
Miami did beat ND.

 

[meyers7]

I'd take that Regional.

 

[DobbsRover2]

But first you have to figure out an S-curve, and what Geno or Charlie think is the strength rating may not be what the committee votes when they meet. There have been some eye-raisers in the past. Also, you have to balance the sure thing of the geography factor at least getting fans to buy tickets, to the the S-curve factor that sometimes sees none of the #1's and #2's meeting up in the Elite 8 game. I can see a point of putting the 4th and 5th rated teams together (always out west) if they seem to be very close and there is a gap to the #6 team, but that isn't the case this year. After the top 4 teams, a case could be made for Baylor, Tennessee, or FSU as the 5th best team, and if Louisville is the fourth #2 seed, we know about their history in the NCAAT, or if it's OreSU, maybe they'll get their mojo back in the tourney.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Another thing to remember is that any of the eastern teams sent to Spokane are at a severe disadvantage, as PAC teams have won the West regional for 7 straight years. Maryland is basically pinned in there, and some Vol fans want their team to go there, but there is a serious down side to traveling out west. Whether OreSU gets in there as a #2 or possibly more likely as a #3, or its Stanford as a #3, the PAC rep has a big advantage, almost guaranteeing the PAC an FF team for 7 straight years.

 

[jsloanjr]

You cannot cry about seatings when the season is over.......

 

[MilfordHusky]

Another thing to remember is that any of the eastern teams sent to Spokane are at a severe disadvantage, as PAC teams have won the West regional for 7 straight years. Maryland is basically pinned in there, and some Vol fans want their team to go there, but there is a serious down side to traveling out west. Whether OreSU gets in there as a #2 or possibly more likely as a #3, or its Stanford as a #3, the PAC rep has a big advantage, almost guaranteeing the PAC an FF team for 7 straight years.

I agree about an Eastern team being at a disadvantage being sent to Spokane, but the PAC team advancing was largely due to the talent (and coaching) that Stanford had, especially the O sisters. I don't see that level of talent in the PAC this year--more depth and balance to be sure but no superpower. Clearly, the fans will favor Stanford or OSU over Tenn or the Terps,

 

[EricLA]

I'd still prefer to see Tennessee in ND's bracket, but their fans are clamoring for Maryland. Will be interesting to see if they get their wish...

 

[VAUConnFan]

IMO, while nice to reward/award Princeton a #4 seed, that is probably too high. However there is very between a 4 and a 5.

 

[cockhrnleghrn]

I'd still prefer to see Tennessee in ND's bracket, but their fans are clamoring for Maryland. Will be interesting to see if they get their wish...

I still think the committee *could* give Tennessee the one over Maryland, due to SOS.

 

[mhshuskies]

Carl's article in Saturday's JI is interesting. He quotes Geno as strongly arguing
for the best one to be seeded with the worst 2 and so forth....geography shouldn't be a factor.
He says it will be a great tourney if they get the ones and twos right....doesn't care about the other seeds and
the factors going into those selections.

Carl predicts what may happen:

Albany:
1: UConn
2: Florida State
3: Arizona State
4: Princeton

Greensboro
1: South Carolina
2: Oregon State
3: Louisville
4: George Washington

Oklahoma City
1: ND
2: Baylor
3: Iowa
4: Kentucky

Spokane
1: Maryland
2 LadyVol
3: Stanford
4: Mississippi State

BTW: the first weekend games in Storrs are apparently still TBA in terms of whether
they will be Friday/Sunday or Saturday/Monday.

Carl guesses that either St. Francis [NY] or Robert Morris will be our 16.
The 8/9 game? He says maybe Syracuse/Seton Hall.

We know that UConn and South Florida will be in the NCAA's.
Maybe Tulane? Carl says their RPI is 51 with wins over LSU and Miami.
Miami did beat ND.

That would be great to put two massive beatdowns on ACC teams. Show the rest of the country what a chump league it is.

 

[EricLA]

That would be great to put two massive beatdowns on ACC teams. Show the rest of the country what a chump league it is.

I think the ACC is pretty terrific this year. Would be fun to see an ACC-SEC challenge. I think the ACC would romp...

 

[Wonkster]

You cannot cry about seatings when the season is over..

All you gotta do is bring seat pads to the games.

 

[triaddukefan]

That would be great to put two massive beatdowns on ACC teams. Show the rest of the country what a chump league it is.

 

[hussybulldog]

I still think the committee *could* give Tennessee the one over Maryland, due to SOS.

put both them in Spokane, and it does not matter who is #1 or #2, if they hold up to their seeding, then they will meet up in the regional final.

 

[MilfordHusky]

put both them in Spokane, and it does not matter who is #1 or #2, if they hold up to their seeding, then they will meet up in the regional final.

Sounds fair to me.

 

[DobbsRover2]

I agree about an Eastern team being at a disadvantage being sent to Spokane, but the PAC team advancing was largely due to the talent (and coaching) that Stanford had, especially the O sisters. I don't see that level of talent in the PAC this year--more depth and balance to be sure but no superpower. Clearly, the fans will favor Stanford or OSU over Tenn or the Terps,

Sure the Stanford teams (and Cal one) were highly ranked, but usually you would expect an upset or two in those seven years, since the #1 seeds have only about a 55% rate of reaching the . The western placement has protected the PAC teams, much like having a lower seed host their pod gives them a much greater chance of winning. Whether it will be enough to help a #3 seed PAC team win this year does remain to be seen though.

 

[UcMiami]

Sure the Stanford teams (and Cal one) were highly ranked, but usually you would expect an upset or two in those seven years, since the #1 seeds have only about a 55% rate of reaching the . The western placement has protected the PAC teams, much like having a lower seed host their pod gives them a much greater chance of winning. Whether it will be enough to help a #3 seed PAC team win this year does remain to be seen though.

I think itis as much coaching as 'protection'. Tara like Muffet and Geno just doesn't have her team get 'upset' very often when she has a really good team and a chance to prepare. If you look at those three teams records over the last 7 or so years they have been very consistent to their talent level. Other one and two seed teams, not so much!

 

[DobbsRover2]

I think itis as much coaching as 'protection'. Tara like Muffet and Geno just doesn't have her team get 'upset' very often when she has a really good team and a chance to prepare. If you look at those three teams records over the last 7 or so years they have been very consistent to their talent level. Other one and two seed teams, not so much!

Sounds like chicken and egg to me. Which came first, the good consistent coaching that avoids the upset or the fact that you are playing on home turf to avoid the upset? Granted, the west regionals are only occasionally in the San Francisco area, but the whole west coast is home territory for Stanford when they're playing eastern teams in the S16 - E8, and the one time they didn't advance in recent years was when they got knocked off by Cal.

During those seven years when Stanford was making 6 trips to the FF and Cal once from the west region, Tara's record in OOC games against ranked opponents in November and December is 15-1 at home and only 3-9 on the road. That speaks to me more of home court advantage than of a coach who just consistently gets her team up for the big games.