As it currently stands, we're guaranteed to be between 4-6. If we win out, we claim the four seed. If we lose out, we get the six.
If we win tonight, we're guaranteed to be playing in the 4-5 game on Friday afternoon. Which makes Sunday's game of Tulsa @ SMU huge. The winner of that game gets the top seed in the tournament, and would likely be our semifinals opponent assuming we get past the first game. I'd like to avoid SMU for as long as possible.
There's a very minute RPI difference between beating SMU and losing to X other team and beating Tulsa and losing to SMU. The latter is actually slightly better.