AAC Contract Prediction

[Adios]

This deal is middle of the fence. Not enough to pay for football, but enough promise to not do anything else with football.

The AAC and most football conferences always have had a mindset that football drives the dollars, so a "football only" membership in the AAC could make sense. There is already the Navy precedent. Pay ~80% of the revenue to UConn for football, and let the rest of the program go Big East. Lower costs for Non-Rev sports, much better basketball conference, regional opponents, and still keep football.

But what about the Men's and Women's basketball programs? Although UConn offers its own following for its own women's program, no one else values the women's game as there is low viewer interest. The AAC is already on record as putting a low value on Men's Basketball.

When the Big East is talks about a possible 11th team, I think they are only talking about UConn. I can't see adding Dayton, VCU, or Wichita State. UConn would bring value.

The process forward for UConn should now include talks with the Big East. The bar is set for the AAC deal with ESPN. What would Fox do for renewing the Big East contract early if UConn were to join? How much money is on the table in early renewal?

Do you have any meaningful hobbies?

My condolences for the loss to Penn at the ever-so-mighty Palestra. Home of Penn volleyball.

Also, my condolences for Temple outmaneuvering Villanova in athletics, going forward. Maybe you should tell your Big East buddies to invite UConn and Temple.

 

[Zissou]

Do you have any meaningful hobbies?

My condolences for the loss to Penn at the ever-so-mighty Palestra. Home of Penn volleyball.

Also, my condolences for Temple outmaneuvering Villanova in athletics, going forward. Maybe you should tell your Big East buddies to invite UConn and Temple.

Ouch. That was hurtful. You are quick witted.

 

[StunningSteve]

The bar is set for the AAC deal with ESPN. What would Fox do for renewing the Big East contract early if UConn were to join? How much money is on the table in early renewal?

1. There is no such rengotiation with FS1 for adding UConn content.
Fox gave the NBE a pro rata, which means UConn would get what DePaul is getting right now.

2. The ratings for the Fox broadcasts have been poo.

3. In light of the audience, Fox bigwigs most likely think the standard 4 million is ‘ponying up’ for UConn.

4. Only question is if the current contract will be reduced when it’s up.

 

[Adios]

Ouch. That was hurtful. You are quick witted.

Thank you. Now take your soap box for praising the Big East elsewhere.

 

[Adios]

Hey, maybe the Big East can add Quinnipiac.

 

[UConnNick]

I always wondered if this was a possibility:

Put all sports, except football in the Big East. Have an agreement with the AAC to keep football there, for roughly half of the yearly contract, and in return schedule 3 or more OOC basketball games with the AAC (Cincy and Memphis, and rotate the opponents the other years). This way we would still get the $4 mil from the BE as a full member and $3-4 mil as a partial member from the AAC.

Keeps basketball afloat in a better league, MSG, etc and allows us to keep football where it is with a partial member payout.

The AAC will never agree to allow us to turf the FB program there, and even if they were willing to, there's no way they'd give us a half share just for our lousy football program. That's a pipe dream.

 

[Zissou]

1. There is no such rengotiation with FS1 for adding UConn content.
Fox gave the NBE a pro rata, which means UConn would get what DePaul is getting right now.

2. The ratings for the Fox broadcasts have been poo.

3. In light of the audience, Fox bigwigs most likely think the standard 4 million is ‘ponying up’ for UConn.

4. Only question is if the current contract will be reduced when it’s up.

1. Adding UConn without dilution is the current contract term. A contract renegotiation that is ok with both parties is always possible. If Fox sees the value, they get a longer term locked up but pay now for improved and added content.

2. Building from zero takes time. Fox has reasonable expectations.

3. See points 1 and 2. Added bonus is that all UConn games would be broadcast nationally.

4. Not likely! They also said we’d lose MSG to the ACC. We just re-signed and extended the MSG contract before it was up (see point 1).

5. Butch is eloquent and quick witted, for a butch.

 

[billybud]

Blah, blah...UConn is not going to leave the AAC...not going to "park" football anywhere.

....joining the BE, while it might be good for basketball, is really a step down...a step to a minor league in the big scheme of things.

....it would be a step towards Povidence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Nova...and a leap away from any chance, ever, of moving towards P5 remuneration.

....the AAC has more of a chance for future increased AD income than the BE.

....And, if it was the classic visual question on IQ tests...."which one of these doesn't belong"....I think Zissou misses the correct answer.

 

[Husky25]

So the AAC is going to say "hey, take all your national championship programs out of here, we don't want your success in this league and we will give you money for your really crap football team that can't even win 2 games"?

Show me someone who proposes these types of scenarios, and I'll show you someone who overrides the trade/draft/recruiting feature in EASports games.

 

[Zissou]

It's an interesting argument.

UConn basketball would not bring any value to Fox?

The AAC values UConn for its basketball but not its football?

 

[AZHuskiePop]

More like a leaking tourniquet. It won't save your life, but it will slow the rate at which you are dying.

So your preference is UConn athletics bleeds to death.
I thought you claimed to be a UConn fan.

1. Adding UConn without dilution is the current contract term. A contract renegotiation that is ok with both parties is always possible. If Fox sees the value, they get a longer term locked up but pay now for improved and added content.

2. Building from zero takes time. Fox has reasonable expectations.

3. See points 1 and 2. Added bonus is that all UConn games would be broadcast nationally.

4. Not likely! They also said we’d lose MSG to the ACC. We just re-signed and extended the MSG contract before it was up (see point 1).

5. Butch is eloquent and quick witted, for a butch.

a
Aren’t both Fox and ESPN now owned by Disney?
Are they really competitors anymore?

 

[CL82]

So your preference is UConn athletics bleeds to death.
I thought you claimed to be a UConn fan.

a
Aren’t both Fox and ESPN now owned by Disney?
Are they really competitors anymore?

No my preference is for it thrive. Some here prefer a slow death to shot a life. Short term thinkers, I guess.

 

[Adios]

It's an interesting argument.

UConn basketball would not bring any value to Fox?

The AAC values UConn for its basketball but not its football?

It would value our football if we were in good shape. Our fanbase was fine before Edsall left. Are you stupid?

 

[Zissou]

Aren’t both Fox and ESPN now owned by Disney?
Are they really competitors anymore?

I think Disney buying Fox studios (movies, content, etc.) does not include buying the big Fox network channel, FS1, FS2, Fox News, or the Big Ten Network.

ESPN and Fox Sports are still competitors. Fox Sports will still have the NFL, World Series, Big East, etc.

ESPN is the established giant. Fox Sports is the share growth competitor.

 

[Zissou]

To not know butch is a stereotypical nickname for a bully is incredibly self unaware. Or maybe credibly.

"On Wednesday night's Late Show, John Cena helped Stephen Colbert prepare to fight a bully.

It seems the Ed Sullivan Theater is being plagued by a mean guy named Butch, who interrupted Colbert's interview with guest John Cena to taunt the CBS host.

After calling Colbert "the Late Show dummy," the "studio bully" proceeded to knock the host's cards out of his hands. "How you gonna ask your stupid questions without your stupid cards? Dummy!" he goaded.

Butch threatened to beat up Colbert after the show, so the host enlisted Cena to get him in fighting shape."

From Jimmy Neutron:



Butch Pakovski is the slightly slack-jawed bully, who is seen constantly bullying students.

This slightly slack jawed bully fears big words. He is very unintelligent and seemingly doesn't have many friends, but he does appear to be friends with Nick. He is never seen to be specifically mean to Jimmy for unknown reasons. He seems to bully Oleander and Carl most often.

From Tom and Jerry:

Beach Bully Bingo - When beach bullies, Butch and Spike, squeeze Tom and Jerry off the beach, the cat and mouse team up to pit one bully against the other.

 

[NJHusky]

Don't forget geography and demographics they are big part of what UConn brings to the table.

Actually, I would argue this works against Uconn. Rutgers got a B1G invite not because of the success of their sports programs....they haven't had any...but on the size of the NJ TV market. I am forced to pay $2 per month to get the B1G network even though I don't want it. I'm pretty sure it's the same for every cable provider in the state. At over 9M residents, that's a lot of TV revenue...and nearly3x the number of Ct households!

 

[CL82]

Actually, I would argue this works against Uconn. Rutgers got a B1G invite not because of the success of their sports programs....they haven't had any...but on the size of the NJ TV market. I am forced to pay $2 per month to get the B1G network even though I don't want it. I'm pretty sure it's the same for every cable provider in the state. At over 9M residents, that's a lot of TV revenue...and nearly3x the number of Ct households!

This is exactly right and an underappreciated fact, IMO. Both UConn and Rutgers are in the coveted NYC DMA but RU brought it plus another 3M people. (Households not people is the relevant demographic but I don't know those numbers. I assume the ratio is about right.) CT only brought another 1M people. Said differently NJ has @6M in the NYC DMA while Connecticut has @2M.

But RU is already in a P5 conference. If you want to acquire a state school where the state is in the NYC DMA, UConn is only other major not in a P5. That is a huge advantage for us. We also show well at MSG which is a defacto home court for us. Finally CT is one of the wealthiest states in the nation on a per capita basis. That's a big plus for us as well.

Now is all that a reason to invite us into a conference? Probably not in my opinion, absent another reason for expansion. But if something happens that forces expansion, those factors put at the top of the list of the schools available.

 

[Adios]

We also have interest from New England. People consider UConn, not BC, as the most preeminent D1 athletic department in New England.

If we were in the Big Ten or ACC, our games would get higher ratings in Big East cities around here than their own schools.

 

[billybud]

The question is...how valuable is the New York market now to the ACC?

They already have entrance to Altice's cable market ( New York, parts of Connecticut, New Jersey, Pennsylvania) and will be paid for the ACCN as well as for the ABC and ESPN sports programming.

The ACC also is featured on the YES channel.

What the conference may need are more "must watch" matches for national audiences. and...for basketball...UConn fits the bill.

For football? Nope

 

[Zissou]

Wichita State was reported to get $250K annually in it's 4th AAC season and beyond. If that is the value for basketball, and the new TV deal is $8M per year for full members, does that mean a "football only" member would be worth $7.75M per year?

It seems if UConn went Big East for all sports but kept football in the AAC then UConn should at least get $6M for just football.

UConn football value should not be greatly devalued by its recent performance slump if it's all about markets and fan bases. Rutgers sucks and always sucked and they were Pfived over UConn when UConn was at its peak in both hoops and football.

Does the AAC value UConn's football market? We know the AAC does not value hoops (at least monetarily). There seems to be a logical case for "football only" with high share compensation.

 

[Adios]

We know the AAC does not value hoops (at least monetarily).

That's just another fantasy of yours.

What do Hardaway and Hurley get paid? How much did Fertitta cost? Whatever you say, or fantasize.

 

[Zissou]

That's just another fantasy of yours.

What do Hardaway and Hurley get paid? How much did Fertitta cost? Whatever you say, or fantasize.

Please correct me as I could be wrong. What does Witchita State get as far as TV money from the conference?

Hurley does not get paid by the conference, and UConn athletics operates in a deficit disregarding subsidies.

 

[dante]

Wichita State was reported to get $250K annually in it's 4th AAC season and beyond. If that is the value for basketball, and the new TV deal is $8M per year for full members, does that mean a "football only" member would be worth $7.75M per year?

It seems if UConn went Big East for all sports but kept football in the AAC then UConn should at least get $6M for just football.

UConn football value should not be greatly devalued by its recent performance slump if it's all about markets and fan bases. Rutgers sucks and always sucked and they were Pfived over UConn when UConn was at its peak in both hoops and football.

Does the AAC value UConn's football market? We know the AAC does not value hoops (at least monetarily). There seems to be a logical case for "football only" with high share compensation.

Just stop!

 

[Stinger92860]

Actually, I would argue this works against Uconn. Rutgers got a B1G invite not because of the success of their sports programs....they haven't had any...but on the size of the NJ TV market. I am forced to pay $2 per month to get the B1G network even though I don't want it. I'm pretty sure it's the same for every cable provider in the state. At over 9M residents, that's a lot of TV revenue...and nearly3x the number of Ct households!

Despite NJ being 3x of CT, we are still in a top 25 market for size. I’m willing to pay 6 per month for the B1G network in CT.

 

[NJHusky]

But RU is already in a P5 conference. If you want to acquire a state school where the state is in the NYC DMA, UConn is only other major not in a P5. That is a huge advantage for us. We also show well at MSG which is a defacto home court for us. Finally CT is one of the wealthiest states in the nation on a per capita basis. That's a big plus for us as well.

Agree, but that didn't seem to matter when the ACC took Ville over Uconn.

We also have interest from New England. People consider UConn, not BC, as the most preeminent D1 athletic department in New England.

If we were in the Big Ten or ACC, our games would get higher ratings in Big East cities around here than their own schools.

But, the folks in MA, VT, NH and NY prob won't get charged $5 per month on their cable bill if Uconn joins a P5...which happened when RU joined the B1G and was IMO the reason they got the invite (and the chance to play games close to NYC)