Yep, the POY will not come from a middle of the conference team and probably shouldn't.
No one in the top 5 of points per game will be from the top 4 conference finishers unless Memphis wins at Houston. None of Houston, Wichita, or Tulsa even have a player in the top 10 of points per game.
Cumberland is 6th, but he has shot 25% overall in the last month as he's been clearly banged up (and missed last game and possibly today's with a heel injury), and his numbers have regressed enough from last year when he won it that I doubt the writers go with him from a narrative perspective.
On the other hand, Vital has shot 51% during the same time frame. He's 4th in points per game and has the edge in advanced stats: he currently leads the league in box plus minus, win shares, 3rd in PORPAGATU! and is first in KPOY. We'll have a ~45% chance to finish 5th in the conference if we beat Tulane, which would be ahead of Memphis. And he's not just all offense, as he leads the conference in steals per game.
Precious has probably been the most "dominant" player in the conference, as he leads the conference in rebounding and is top 5 in points per game and 3rd in blocks. But his advanced stat offensive numbers stink since he's such a bad free throw shooter and is turnover prone. Memphis is likely to lose at Houston, and if they do, they'll finish either 6th or 7th, depending if SMU wins. If they win tomorrow, he might lock it up, but it's wide open if they don't.
Kendric Davis of SMU is the dark horse. 7th in points per game and leads the conference in assists. SMU could finish 5th or 6th. But he's been bad on D and I'm just not sure he has the renown yet.