A thread (eventually) about turnovers

[Phil]

I want to talk about Turnovers, but first a little (maybe more than a little) background.

I don't think anyone can argue that UConn has been one of the dominant teams over the last decade. I and others have pointed out some of the statistical categories we lead or are near the top.

It isn't a realistic goal to be at the top of every statistical category. It is a question of priorities, both in terms of time spent teaching skills, and types of players recruited.

As I think about the way Geno and staff teach the game, there are certain stats I expect us to dominate, and others where it is less likely.

For example, blocks. If it happened that blocks were the most important determiner of who wins National Championships, we would recruit more players who can block, and emphasize it in practice. It isn't, so we don't.

In contrast, Geno believes defense is important, and we typically lead the country in defensive stats.

With that as background, there are two stats where I thought we would shine, and we haven't.

Free throws.
I think of free throws as something anyone can learn to do well. It doesn't take height, it doesn't take quickness, nor extraordinary athletic ability. It takes discipline, focus and practice.Yes, a good form is important, but it is more a mind skill than a body skill. Yet we are hitting 75% of our shots, not good enough to be in the top 50. I don't get it.

Finally, the point of this thread.

Turnovers.
While avoiding turnovers has more to do with raw athletic ability than free throws, it is still very much a discipline and focus skill. In 2013, we averaged 14 TOs per game. Not terrible, but 49 schools did better.

This year, we are averaging 9.5, good enough for second place (behind Villanova, who was also in first last year). While I am extremely happy about this, I don't get it. And there are two things I don't understand:

1. Why have we traditionally been so mediocre?
2. What changed this year (or it is a statistical anomaly, too early to jump to conclusions)

I don't want to hear that Geno teaches the players that holding on to the ball is important. I simply don't believe this thought just occurred to him.

Why is it that it hasn't been a strength of UConn, and this year, we are one of the best?

 

[Icebear]

I prefer blueberry turnovers. BTW, I will bet you that we have fewer TOs per possession than Villanova.

 

[huskybill]

Geno is a candidate for the football coaching job.Avoiding turnovers are even more important in football than in basketball and he wants to show that he thinks all turnovers are important to him.

 

[meyers7]

Free throws.
I think of free throws as something anyone can learn to do well. It doesn't take height, it doesn't take quickness, nor extraordinary athletic ability. It takes discipline, focus and practice.Yes, a good form is important, but it is more a mind skill than a body skill. Yet we are hitting 75% of our shots, not good enough to be in the top 50. I don't get it.

Free throws come and go. Some years we are pretty good, others only so-so. We are pretty good when it counts though.

Turnovers.
While avoiding turnovers has more to do with raw athletic ability than free throws, it is still very much a discipline and focus skill. In 2013, we averaged 14 TOs per game. Not terrible, but 49 schools did better.

This year, we are averaging 9.5, good enough for second place (behind Villanova, who was also in first last year). While I am extremely happy about this, I don't get it. And there are two things I don't understand:

1. 
   [ ]Why have we traditionally been so mediocre?
   [ ]What changed this year (or it is a statistical anomaly, too early to jump to conclusions)

I don't want to hear that Geno teaches the players that holding on to the ball is important. I simply don't believe this thought just occurred to him.

Why is it that it hasn't been a strength of UConn, and this year, we are one of the best?

First I guess I would disagree that TO's, A/TO ratio and TO differential are not a strength of UCONN. I don't think we are necessarily mediocre.

A couple reasons why we may not top the charts? One is, and ice touches on this, for raw TO numbers, UCONN typically has more possessions. More opportunity for TOs. The second, is something you touched on, focus. It can be very difficult to stay focused when you are up by 30-40 pts and it doesn't really matter. Add to that emptying the bench, which will not help your TO numbers.

Why better this year? So far, anyway, a much tighter rotation I think would explain it (the biggest reason). The more players that get into the mix, the harder it is for them to work together. I'm thinking the TO numbers may go up when Tuck and KML get back.

Also, possibly, with the refs looking at the touch fouls, they don't seem to be calling those silly traveling calls (which I don't really think are traveling) when the girls make a move to drive to the hoop. We used to get 2-3 of them a game. Haven't seen them as much this year.

 

[pinotbear]

Meyers comment about reffing and touch fouls let me to thing that, perhaps, the renewed emphasis on freedom of movement has made for a cleaner, lower-mistake offense. If somebody is clutching/grabbing/shoving while you're trying to either pass the ball or receive it, that would throw off timing and impede movement. Combine that with a tighter rotation, and some of the other factors mentioned, and, it might all add up.

Of course, if the change in officiating is making for a smoother offense, then TO's ought to be down slightly across the country. Anybody know if such stats are kept, and, if so, what they might be?

 

[Sonny44]

I want to talk about Turnovers, but first a little (maybe more than a little) background.

I don't think anyone can argue that UConn has been one of the dominant teams over the last decade. I and others have pointed out some of the statistical categories we lead or are near the top.

It isn't a realistic goal to be at the top of every statistical category. It is a question of priorities, both in terms of time spent teaching skills, and types of players recruited.

As I think about the way Geno and staff teach the game, there are certain stats I expect us to dominate, and others where it is less likely.

For example, blocks. If it happened that blocks were the most important determiner of who wins National Championships, we would recruit more players who can block, and emphasize it in practice. It isn't, so we don't.

In contrast, Geno believes defense is important, and we typically lead the country in defensive stats.

With that as background, there are two stats where I thought we would shine, and we haven't.

Free throws.
I think of free throws as something anyone can learn to do well. It doesn't take height, it doesn't take quickness, nor extraordinary athletic ability. It takes discipline, focus and practice.Yes, a good form is important, but it is more a mind skill than a body skill. Yet we are hitting 75% of our shots, not good enough to be in the top 50. I don't get it.

Finally, the point of this thread.
Turnovers.
While avoiding turnovers has more to do with raw athletic ability than free throws, it is still very much a discipline and focus skill. In 2013, we averaged 14 TOs per game. Not terrible, but 49 schools did better.

This year, we are averaging 9.5, good enough for second place (behind Villanova, who was also in first last year). While I am extremely happy about this, I don't get it. And there are two things I don't understand:

1. 
   [ ]Why have we traditionally been so mediocre?
   [ ]What changed this year (or it is a statistical anomaly, too early to jump to conclusions)

I don't want to hear that Geno teaches the players that holding on to the ball is important. I simply don't believe this thought just occurred to him.

Why is it that it hasn't been a strength of UConn, and this year, we are one of the best?

I agree that we should be better FT shooters. I think 90% should be the goal. Its a matter of concentration.

I don't agree, and have expressed this many times here, that the turnovers are out of line. Turnovers are a natural by-product of the way we play, our high speed, high risk break away, see you in my rear view mirror style. Also we place a high value on assists. If everyone just ran down the court and shot there would be far less turnovers.

 

[UcMiami]

Agree with most of the responses:
1. raw numbers (as really any stat) can be very misleading. Turnovers/offensive possession, turnovers/per pass attempted, and especially assist/turnover are probably more important. It is easier to have fewer turnovers if you never attempt an entry pass to the post, if you have twenty fewer offensive sets/game, or if your offense consists of one on one and nobody ever passes. Uconn consistently is high in assists and high in assists/turnovers and that keeps me happy.
2. Free throw shooting for a team is often a result of who is taking the free throws. Who gets fouled is something teams actual scout so if it is a close game and you need to foul someone you know who to avoid and who to hope you can foul. 75% for a team is very respectable, 80% is exceptional. Not a big deal, and the prime offender for Uconn at the moment is Bria who has had some shooting woes to start the season and Stef who is currently well below her career percentage - but it is early in the season and so the stats are still based on a pretty small sample size. Same could be said for assists and turnovers - but in the other direction.
3. The larger a team, the more combinations available, the harder it is to play clean team ball - with 7 primary players there is real familiarity with each other on the court and less chance of a player zigging when the passer thought they would zag. I expect the team to be better with KML and Tuck back, but I also suspect the TOs will go up. The other determinant would be time together and with only one scholarship freshman most of the team has a full year playing together.

 

[Icebear]

Meyers comment about reffing and touch fouls let me to thing that, perhaps, the renewed emphasis on freedom of movement has made for a cleaner, lower-mistake offense. If somebody is clutching/grabbing/shoving while you're trying to either pass the ball or receive it, that would throw off timing and impede movement. Combine that with a tighter rotation, and some of the other factors mentioned, and, it might all add up.

Of course, if the change in officiating is making for a smoother offense, then TO's ought to be down slightly across the country. Anybody know if such stats are kept, and, if so, what they might be?

Yes, and I think that is, also, why Stef's TOs went up some against OSU because that game was a bit of a return to the past in the post play and physical play and grabbing.

 

[DavidinNaples]

phil...I see 4 reasons turnovers are down this year. It is probably more complicated that this, but here's my thoughts...

1. Three freshman are now sophomores...Stewie, MoJeff and Tuck had 146 TOs last year. (26% of UConn's 557 total). Those 3 are now older, wiser and more familiar w/ Geno's system. Stewie and MoJeff have 32 so far this year. While Tuck's numbers are not relevant, Stewie and MoJeff have done a much better job not turning the ball over.

2. The only new player this year is Saniya Chong. Rather than assume the mantle of "Stupid Freshman Turnover Person", she is leading the team in FEWEST turnovers w/ 8 thru 10 games.

3. Dolson and Bria are being more careful. These two players led the team w/ 86 TOs each. Combined that was 31% of the total. Bria has 13 so far this year in 10 games, so 4 x 13 = 52. Dolson is also cutting down on her TOs.

4. Faris and Doty had 124 TOs last year. They graduated and their ball handling/passes are being handled by 2 more careful sophomores, Banks who only has 11 TOs and a frosh who doesn't turn the ball over.

Go Huskies..!

 

[Phil]

One is, and ice touches on this, for raw TO numbers, UCONN typically has more possessions.

Sorry, but I've got to challenge you on this point. When Ice said it, I nodded, because it seemed so obviously true. And it is true we have more possessions than Villanova, but then, your average Steven King novel has more possessions than Villanova. Only four teams in the country have fewer possessions than Villanova (The lowest is Presbyterian, which must lead to some religious joke, but it hasn't jumped out at me).

Connecticut averages 72 possessions per 40 minutes. That's good enough for 255th place. The average is 74, so UConn is actually below average.

 

[Icebear]

But that is still enough to impact the TOs to possession ratio.

 

[meyers7]

The other determinant would be time together and with only one scholarship freshman most of the team has a full year playing together.

Yes, that's another one.

 

[UcMiami]

I agree that we should be better FT shooters. I think 90% should be the goal. Its a matter of concentration.

I don't agree, and have expressed this many times here, that the turnovers are out of line. Turnovers are a natural by-product of the way we play, our high speed, high risk break away, see you in my rear view mirror style. Also we place a high value on assists. If everyone just ran down the court and shot there would be far less turnovers.

Oh my, oh my - we are getting awfully demanding of our team re free throws - a quick check of the record book shows:
1. Best free throw shooting Uconn team in history was - 2010/11 at 76.5% and only three other teams in Uconn history did better than 75% - lets not set the bar too high!
2. Best individual career shooting percentages - Sue Bird at 89.2% and only 8 players in Uconn history are above 80% (including KML and Stef who is currently at 70% this year.) So on your ideal team Sue would be one of the slackers as she would be bringing down the team from the 90% goal.
3. Best individual Uconn seasons - Amy Duran and Sue Bird are the only two at better than 90% and there are only three others at better than 85%. ON EDIT - and Sue and Amy only did it one year each so they were really bad the other 3 years!)

A great shooter hitting at 90% is a good goal for a season and for a career getting in at 85% is great.
A good shooter hitting 80% is a solid goal and a career at 75% isn't bad.
Multiply that by five and a team hitting 80% is really really good - and 75% is solid.
KML who is no slouch is currently at 86.3% for her career and last year almost made the 90% club coming in at 89.5%

 

[meyers7]

Connecticut averages 72 possessions per 40 minutes. That's good enough for 255th place. The average is 74, so UConn is actually below average.

Well that's because we have fewer TOs.

 

[trisailin]

I agree that we should be better FT shooters. I think 90% should be the goal. Its a matter of concentration.

Sorry - gotta disagree
The goal is perfection, sometimes you hit excellence.

 

[Sonny44]

Correct.

 

[EasyEd]

I think in the past Uconn's turnovers have been higher because they pass more than other teams (not so much one-on-one). A lot of the passes are also to get a good shot and some of these passes are a higher degree of difficulty. Like some fast breaks, lobs over the defense to an inside player are higher risk with high reward. I think this year there are less forced passes into the post (I think Steph would be scoring a lot more points if there were) which is why their turover numbers look better. As long as they have a high number of assists, I don't worry too much about their average numbe of turnovers.

 

[BrianUC]

Why are our turnovers down this year? We haven't faced really tough defense yet.

Turnovers vs. Notre Dame last year: 88 (22 per game)
Turnovers vs. Notre Dame this year: 0

 

[Phil]

Why are our turnovers down this year? We haven't faced really tough defense yet.

Turnovers vs. Notre Dame last year: 88 (22 per game)
Turnovers vs. Notre Dame this year: 0

Good point.

 

[Sonny44]

I think in the past Uconn's turnovers have been higher because they pass more than other teams (not so much one-on-one). A lot of the passes are also to get a good shot and some of these passes are a higher degree of difficulty. Like some fast breaks, lobs over the defense to an inside player are higher risk with high reward. I think this year there are less forced passes into the post (I think Steph would be scoring a lot more points if there were) which is why their turover numbers look better. As long as they have a high number of assists, I don't worry too much about their average numbe of turnovers.

You got that right.

 

[hjoerring]

Good questions. Not sure there is a definitive answer- probably varies by team and personnel. The Ivy Leagues do well in these statistics- but they play a much slower game. Villa. hasn't won much- probably play slow and non-complex sets(?) I would think that FT demands such control over the body and mind, and the mind/body relation that for a player who is going 100% it might be difficult to stop and get these features in sync. Some can but not all.

 

[reno tony]

Some years back Nebraska led the nation in fumbles. They also led the nation in over 400 yds per game rushing. UCONN is having the same issue. More passing, more attempts at passing assists all leads to opportunities for turnovers. They run the floor and transitional play leads to turnovers. If you have a high number of assists I expect you to have a high number of turnovers. The ratio of those two is where we excel.

 

[Icebear]

Over dribbling and excessive one on one play can lead to TOs, too.

 

[Phil]

I think in the past Uconn's turnovers have been higher because they pass more than other teams (not so much one-on-one). A lot of the passes are also to get a good shot and some of these passes are a higher degree of difficulty. Like some fast breaks, lobs over the defense to an inside player are higher risk with high reward. I think this year there are less forced passes into the post (I think Steph would be scoring a lot more points if there were) which is why their turover numbers look better. As long as they have a high number of assists, I don't worry too much about their average numbe of turnovers.

That's an interesting theory. I'm mulling over how to measure it, short of watching a lot of tape and counting.

 

[Sonny44]

Some years back Nebraska led the nation in fumbles. They also led the nation in over 400 yds per game rushing. UCONN is having the same issue. More passing, more attempts at passing assists all leads to opportunities for turnovers. They run the floor and transitional play leads to turnovers. If you have a high number of assists I expect you to have a high number of turnovers. The ratio of those two is where we excel.

Amen bro.