A Tale of Three Seasons in One For Vital (stats)

[auror]

Doesn't take a genius to see that Vital has picked up his play lately. I made a post recently about how his shooting had gotten back to form. Well, now that the regular season is over, we can look definitely at his full stats. There's an easy dividing line one can make to separate his season into the non-conference portion, the beginning of the conference season, and the end of the season.

(First 12 = Nov/Dec, Middle 10 = Jan/Feb 1, Last 9 = Feb 6/Mar). Bold is best of the 3.

Vital Per/G	MP	ORtg	%Ps	Pts	eFG%	2PM	2PA	2PT%	3PM	3PtA	3PT%	FTM	FTA	FT%	OR	DR	TRB	A	TO	Blk	Stl	PF
Nonconf 12	28.83	107.67	26.00	14.33	47.78%	2.50	6.00	41.67%	1.92	5.25	36.51%	3.58	4.08	87.76%	1.58	5.83	7.42	2.83	2.67	0.17	2.67	1.92
Middle 10	32.30	96.00	25.30	13.90	40.24%	2.70	6.10	44.26%	1.50	6.20	24.19%	4.00	4.30	93.02%	1.00	4.40	5.40	2.10	2.50	0.20	2.10	3.10
Last 9	36.56	125.11	26.67	21.78	56.69%	3.44	7.00	49.21%	3.11	7.33	42.42%	5.56	6.22	89.29%	1.11	4.67	5.78	2.89	2.89	0.11	2.78	3.00

What is clear is that Vital has increased his production AND efficiency across almost the full spectrum, and that the first 10 conference games were an anomaly. Perhaps he was secretly struggling with an injury? He has since played more minutes, which obviously boosts some counting stats, and the schedule got easier (4/9 games were 'A'/'B' games, whereas middle stretch had 6/10), but neither of those can explain his ORTG jumping 30 points while using MORE possessions.

On Jan 31st, in a post talking about Vital, I said:

Now for an actually important stat: Of players who have used at least 26% of their team's possessions on the year, he's 244th out of 272nd in eFG%. That's the 11th percentile.

Shall we revisit that?

His 56.69% eFG% in the last 9 games would rank 33rd out of 280. That's the 88th percentile. And it would lead the conference: 1st out of 11 (Note: comparing to full season stats for the rest of the players out of necessity, so take with small grain of salt). His true shooting % rank would be even higher, considering his high FT%.

People, including myself, were not mistaken about his poor quality of play up to that point. But this is a great reminder to not write someone off, especially someone with the mental toughness and experience of Vital. I'd love for someone to do a review of his tape to see what changed, whether it was schematic, lineup changes, shot selection, mental approach, mechanics, or likely some combination of a bunch of those things. Would be a great line of inquiry from "some guys" if you are reading this.

He's represented UConn well this year, and I'm looking forward to see what he can do with his remaining games in a UConn uniform.

 

[imno1]

Down the stretch he is now scoring off the dribble and finishing at the rim. The last month or so he’s been playing at an AA level.

 

[Mano]

There was a lineup change and a noticeable improvement in motion and ball movement that seemed to occur at the same time. Not sure how well the time frames lineup, but they seem to in my mind’s eye.

It’s crazy how much of a ballhawk he’s become too. All while usually taking on the toughest defensive assignment.

Great post @auror!

 

[UCLJ0211]

Do you think he could play his way into the g-league or an NBA roster? Or is overseas the more likely route?

 

[Palatine]

There was a lineup change and a noticeable improvement in motion and ball movement that seemed to occur at the same time.

A big part of that is Carlton is a space eater. When they sat him it opened up the floor. Check out the difference in spacing when Carlton is out. That's not to say there are not times when you need a big body. But for this team at this point space was more important.

That said, we are also very effective when both Carlton and Whaley are on the floor at the same time. It really ups our rebound production. But the foul situation rarely allows for for us to use both big men at once.

 

[Lefty2one]

I think it's a combination of him getting hot at the right time mixed with him--and the entire team--playing smarter basketball. Gaffney and Whaley's emergence can't be ignored. It's been a pleasure to watch. Talk about changing your entire legacy in a mere seven games!

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

He's the same player, he's just hitting open shots and finishing at the rim like he was last year.

 

[Stinger92860]

I think its better shot selection, playing within himself, and trusting his teammates. It’s no coincidence that his play changed with Bouk starting. Plus he seems to have improved his handle e.g. crossover and his pull up Js in the Lane, plus an occasional step back. I’ve not seen these capabilities in the past.

Should he continue down this path, with his tough D and rebounding, I don’t see why he cannot go G league. NBA, I don’t know, but either way he will get paid.

 

[alexd]

And it really was "a tale of 3 seasons" for the team as well:
9-3 pre-conference
1-6 start in conference
9-3 finish in conference.

 

[businesslawyer]

1. Great original post.

2. Hard to tell how much of the numbers is Vital just being better -- we all knew he was a better 3 point shooter than he was showing and the numbers would catch up eventually -- and how much is the offense being entirely different when we play small ball.

3. Carlton played really well when he was in yesterday, and has been much better the last few weeks, but he has to be able to stop fouling like he's Sid Wilson. There will be games we play post season -- Wichita State comes to mind -- where the opponent is beefy and being able to play two big for stretches of the game will be extremely important.

4. Likewise, Hurley is treating Sid like Calhoun used to treat walk-ons when we were short handed. If I can see needing him at the end of the game, I better give him 2 minutes in the first half. Again, if we're making a post season run we will need Sid at some point, and hopefully he's ready to settle down and let the game come to him.

 

[uconngb]

And it really was "a tale of 3 seasons" for the team as well:
9-3 pre-conference
1-6 start in conference
9-3 finish in conference.

When you see the numbers like that, understanding that pre-conference included a bunch of cupcakes, it's very stark. Just go 4-3 in those first 7 conf games and we're dancing. SIGH

 

[auror]

He's the same player, he's just hitting open shots and finishing at the rim like he was last year.

Sure. But last year he was only using 22-23% of possessions. There's a real downward pressure on your efficiency when you get into the 25+ range. Presumably that's why he only shot 32% from 3 his sophomore year when he was forced to take a bunch more shots with all the injuries.

I do think there's definitely some variance and "schedule losses" that impacted his shooting during that bad stretch. We had @Houston, @Villanova, @Cincy, @Memphis, and @Tulsa in those 10 games.

And his shooting did pick up before most of the lineup changes took place, although it's picked up even more since.

 

[spudzj6]

@auror awesome post, well done. Very eye popping to see a difference with stats, not just with the eye test.

One thing I've noticed, over the last two games at least, his rebound numbers have dipped slightly - the direct reason for this is Bouknight. I would have to go back and count, but each game you see at least 3 times where both Bouk and Vital are fighting each other for defensive rebound, usually Bouk coming out with the ball. This shows some hope that we wont lose as much guard rebounding (defensively anyway) as we thought earlier in the year.

 

[businesslawyer]

As great as it's been to see Vital's offensive productivity go up the last month, it appears to me that his defensive play has gone up even more. You used to be able to count on him for steals, but not for being able to lock his man down when he wasn't playing the passing lanes. He now seems to have become a much, much better man defender.

 

[SubbaBub]

I think this has as much to do with others stepping up and CV trusting them more than anything else.

Rebounds are function of missed shots and we missed (took) a ton of (bad) shots early.

Poor shooting is a function of both bad shot selection, being behind late, and trying to make up for the others lack of scoring. The rise of Bouk, Whaley, and Adams has made all.of that less common or necessary.

Before Akok went down, the offense was heavily dependent on CV, and up and down efforts from AG and Carlton. Polley was hurt and Akok didn't give you much in the half court. Bouk and Adams were being counted on for significant minutes and Whaley was strictly in for fouls.

 

[Hoops91]

It is not a coincidence that his scoring increased since Bouknight has become a scorer too. This happened at the same time. Vital was struggling by himself, now that he has a second scorer the pressure to do everything is gone.

 

[Husky1]

CV has been, is, and will be, an incredibly great player, stop dissecting it and qualifying it