A potentially disturbing stat

[rugbymate]

In close games one of the key stats that can determine outcomes is free throw differential. Often it can be the major subject of post game press conferences. Of the ranked teams, SC is +10.0 and LSU is +8.5 by far and away the most. By comparison, UCONN is +2.0. Haven’t seen enough of SC or LSU games to understand how this could happen. It would be interesting to know if someone has an explanation. I worry that in a close game this could make a difference.

 

[cwh20]

True, getting to the line is one thing UConn is not exceptional at. Still a UConn close game is them winning by only 15. If Blanca comes back and the rest stay healthy there would have to be a major, major break down for them not to win it all. I’m not worried at all.

 

[Vowelguy]

1) bigEast games arent as physical
2) Uconn can be more perimeter oriented
3) in blowout games the defense is so overmatched that they're not quick enough to be in position to foul

 

[Huskee11]

To oversimplify, UConn players generally look to get open while SEC players generally look to drive and create contact.

The way in which UConn's offense operates is much different than what you see in a typical SEC game. Much more ball movement, passing, cutting, screening. Much more point guard ball dominance in the SEC.

In the open court transition game, if the UConn player doesn't have a clear path to the hoop, the option of choice is often to set someone up for a three. Think the K9/Allie connection, for example.

But even with all of that, UConn does not hit the offensive boards very well. They need to do a better job there. I don't think they had any in the first half of their last home game against Creighton, maybe one. If they were more aggressive there, that would generate more fouls. I do realize that shooting a high percentage limits the opportunities.

 

[bballnut90]

To oversimplify, UConn players generally look to get open while SEC players generally look to drive and create contact.

The way in which UConn's offense operates is much different than what you see in a typical SEC game. Much more ball movement, passing, cutting, screening.

In the open court transition game, if the UConn player doesn't have a clear path to the hoop, the option of choice is often to set someone up for a three. Think the K9/Allie connection, for example.

This ^^

Also keep in mind every LSU stat is still quite inflated due to playing 300+ RPI teams.

South Carolina's players who draw a lot of fouls (Latson, Edwards and Okot), don't take many 3pt shots and rely on hitting shots around the basket where players are guarded more closely with physicality.

 

[Next 12]

Uconn does not use free throws as part of it's scoring design. Uconn uses passing, speed, steals and 3 pointers as it's attacking method. The dribbling teams rely on free throws as part of their scoring. Free throws are nice and not undesireable , but not part of Uconn's attacking the basket. GO HUSKIES1111111

 

[BBallF]

I would bet that if someone analyzed a game or two for SC and LSU they would see that multiple free throws came from offensive rebounds which we do not have an abundance of.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

For the Number one ranked and undefeated team in the country...we sure have a lot of issues! 🤣

 

[cabbie191]

If you look at data for the number of fouls called per game by conference, you'll see that the SEC leads the way.

 

[darrell]

In last year’s two matchups against South Carolina, UConn was 12/13 to SC’s 9/11 in the February matchup and 18/21 to SC’s 13/18 in the Nat’l Champ game.

A lot of variables, but I’d say their FT shooting is matchup dependent (with Big East comp not being as physical). A bonus is they shot 9 more FTs than UCLA in the FF game.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

If you look at data for the number of fouls called per game by conference, you'll see that the SEC leads the way.

Some of those teams confuse good defense with hacking. Back in the day, that would get you hurt on the playground.

 

[Inthepaint]

In their recent game, LSU missed 5 or 6 free throws down the stretch in a nail bitingly close game with SC
It’s often when you go to the line and whether you make them at crunch time

 

[Zarathustra]

Remember: At the end of the "close game" of UCONN
versus Michigan the "rock" was in Azzi hands.... Michigan
fouled her, of necessity, and Fudd was 100%. (Currently
98%?)
Of course, in future "close games", the "STRONG" Sarah
would be in the game.... When I last heard, Sarah's
Free Throw % was 93 %. (i.e. a "pre-flu" Sarah). Opponents
beware: pick your poison at the end these games! Go HUSKIES

 

[Bald Husky]

I think the teams' culture of passing up a good shot for a great shot also limits their opportunities to get fouled.

 

[oldude]

In addition to the reasons Vowelguy and others have suggested why FT differential should not be a concern for UConn, I will add 2 additional reasons:

• UConn does a lot of their scoring in transition before the opposing defense is set, including a number of wide open layups.
• UConn plays great defense without fouling. Currently, UConn ranks 20th in the nation at only 13.4 fouls per game. Many of those fouls are non-shooting, the result of aggressive, pressure defense. So no FT’s are awarded until the 5th foul in any qtr.

 

[HopJim]

In close games one of the key stats that can determine outcomes is free throw differential. Often it can be the major subject of post game press conferences. Of the ranked teams, SC is +10.0 and LSU is +8.5 by far and away the most. By comparison, UCONN is +2.0. Haven’t seen enough of SC or LSU games to understand how this could happen. It would be interesting to know if someone has an explanation. I worry that in a close game this could make a difference.

It would be interesting to understand how these stats came out when playing top10 or top20 teams. Suspect that many of the lower ranked teams LSU and SC plays need to foul versus play defense.

 

[JellyBean]

Not too disturbing when you factor in style of play by the team, player style, dynamic of conference play, and probably some other stuff that I can't think of at the moment, but I am not too worried.

 

[Geew1992]

Uconn has always shot a low percentage of free throws. As @Huskee11 posted, the system isn't made for shooting alot of free throws

 

[faninwisc]

This stat is meaningless. Uconn is averaging 15.5 steals per game, which is third in the nation and forcing 24.59 turnovers per game which is 6th in the nation. It's pretty hard to get fouled when you are shooting uncontested layups. It also isn't relevant to compare Uconn to South Carolina or LSU because these teams play different styles. Uconn makes 9.4 threes per game while LSU only makes 5.4 and South Carolina only makes 6.2. You'd also have to factor in how efficient of a passing team Uconn is as well. Uconn works hard on offense to get easy shots, which are once again often wide open.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

It would be interesting to understand how these stats came out when playing top10 or top20 teams. Suspect that many of the lower ranked teams LSU and SC plays need to foul versus play defense.

South Carolina’s by-game Free Throw Rate (FTM / FGA) under Offensive Four Factors and the FTR of its opponents under Defensive Four Factors are below:

• SC’s FTR is above average and a big part of that are several opponents who cannot defend without fouling.
• SC’s FTR is low in games with Duke, Louisville and South Florida.
• UConn’s (and its opponents’) FTR is here.

Torvik’s D1 database also has the FTR/ FTRD statistic, and conveniently one can filter to only Quad 1 opponents (below):

• UConn defends without significantly fouling with awarded free throws (FTRD = 20.4.);
• In LY’s NCAAT, UConn had a better/ comparable FTR than its opponents except for USC.

UConn’s emphasis on its best shot offense and worst-and-less-frequent-opponent-shot-defense has resulted in dominant wins where rebounding margin and free throw differential are (so far) not much of a concern.

 

[Bigboote]

To rephrase some of what's been said, there's a difference between a shot you're trying to make and a shot where you're trying to get fouled. Of the top ten schools in free throw attempts per game, LSU and North Dakota State are the only two who shoot a decent percentage from the floor. In fact, LSU is top ten in both free throws and field goal percentage.

 

[BBallF]

Some of those teams confuse good defense with hacking. Back in the day, that would get you hurt on the playground.

Big time and worse nobody would pick you for the next game.

 

[rugbymate]

My first reaction when seeing the differential was that Staley and Mulkey do a great job of intimidating the refs.

 

[BobbyJ]

My first reaction when seeing the differential was that Staley and Mulkey do a great job of intimidating the refs.

I don't understand why the officials allow them out on the floor to do their screaming and coaching. Sometimes Mulkey is 4 feet out there only 5 feet from a ref and no warning and no T.

 

[Ozimoto]

Sometimes the number of fouls and trips to the line are tied to fouling when teams are behind and our trying to get more possessions at the end of close games. UConn has so few close games that this does not come into play very often.