A look ahead: Michigan

[mauconnfan]

I know we're doomed and are still unsure about our first 3 vs Maine, UNH and Furman

Looking at UM's roster I only recognize a couple guys an returning impact guys, if even that. I know Albrecht is a steady guard for them and LeVert, while inconsistent, is a solid scorer but where else will they turn to for experience. The kid Chapman who UConn also recruited at one point showed glimpses I believe but they will be inexperienced. The freshman (including Moritz Wagner of Germany also mentioned UConn) will be required early and often to provide impact for Bielein. This is our door to the winners bracket in Atlantis so I was wondering what others remember about this team as I did not see much of them last year?

 

[Kitaman]

Can't wait, huh Mau?

 

[methodology]

Michigan returns all 5 starters from last year while losing only 1 key contributor from last season. They return 93% of their scoring, 90% of their rebounding and 96% of their assist. They struggled last year as they dealt with injuries that depleted their team.

Starters:

PG: Walton Jr (JR) 10.5 ppg, 4.5 rb, 3 ast - Played injured last season (toe injury) that hurt his numbers, production, and quickness. Looking to bounce back which should lead to better numbers overall
SG: LaVert (SR) 15 ppg, 5 rb, 3.5 ast - Best player on the team who does it all.
SF: Zak Irvin (JR) 14 ppg, 5 rb, 1.5 ast - Former Mr. Bball Indiana who saw his minutes and production rise last year. Very good player who can does a little bit of everything and could become All BIG this season.
PF: Aubrey Dawkins (SO) 7 ppg, 2 rb -Son of Johnny Dawkins and smallish at 6'6 but can stroke the 3 (44% last year)
C: Ricky Doyle (SO) 6 ppg, 3 rb - Only 6'9 but has a 7'2 wingspan. Doesnt step outside like other Belien centers

Their bench is somewhat young outside of Spike (SR) who will be the primary back up PG. Chatham is a possible breakout candidate this year on the wing and Muhammad will also be a primary bench player. They dont have a ton of size as most of their backups are in the 6'8-6'9 range for the front court. I doubt Moritz gets much burn this year.

One guy to keep an eye on is William College transfer Duncan Robinson 6'8. He transferred last year and practiced with the team while sitting out and Beilein says he is an unbelievable 3 point shooter who broke all of Stauskas' shooting drill records during practice last year. Also a good passer who will be key to Beilein having spacing and moving the ball for east baskets and open 3s.

Overall Michigan has a talented roster with experienced upperclassmen shouldering the load. They have tons of depth at the guard and wing positions but are inexperienced and lacking a contributor/size at the center position. Their bench is majority Sophomores outside of Spike. Solid team but not of the caliber that Michigan saw in the previous seasons prior to last year. Top 20ish type team.

 

[tcf15]

Michigan will be good this year and will be a good test for us.

They return close to an entire team whose season was derailed by injuries in 14/15.

Blue Ribbon has them as the #17 team preseason.

Here are some more notes from Blue Ribbon on Michigan.

Expected Starters

PG: Derrick Walton, Jr. (Junior, 6'1", 190) - Started 14/15 season strong, averaging 13.8 points on 46.3 FG%, but then sprained his toe in the Villanova game, and was inconsistent throughout the season (ended up shooting 33.3 FG% after the injury) before being shut down entirely in late January. He's a good 3-point shooter, but will look to improve his assist-turnover ratio. Beilein said when DW plays well, UM has been really good.

SG: Caris LeVert (Senior, 6'7", 205) - B1G Player of the Year Candidate. Best NBA prospect on UM (3rd in B1G behind Diamond Stone and Thomas Bryant, per DraftExpress). Could have left for NBA at end of last year and been late 1st rounder. Fractured foot 18 games in last year ended his season. Looks like Beilein wants LeVert to be a Stauskas-type player, which last year which had mixed results. Based on last year, looks like he really hit his stride when B1G play started (he only lasted 4 games, but ended up averaging 16.3 ppg before getting injured).

SF: Zak Irvin (Junior, 6'6", 215) - Picked up the slack when Walton and LeVert went out, averaging 17.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.3 assists in the final 7 games of the season. Last game of the season (2OT vs. Northwestern) he had his best performance of the season: 49 of 50 minutes, 28 points, 11 rebounds. His shooting dipped as his minutes increased from freshman (15.4 mpg, .434 FG, .425 3P) to sophomore year (36.2 mpg, .402 FG, .355 3P). Still, seems like Beilein wants more consistency out of Irivn this season - improved shooting numbers and apparently Irvin has had problems with assists and inconsistent rebounding. He can play the 2, 3 and 4.

PF: Aubrey Dawkins (Sophomore, 6'6", 205) - Most up-for-grabs position at UM, which is why they really wanted Shonn Miller. Dawkins is the son of Stanford's head coach Jonny Dawkins. Played in 30 games as a freshman, starting 13 of the last 14 games, in which he averaged 33.3 minutes per game. Can shoot the 3, as he shot .438 from long, and he made 8 of them in one game against Rutgers last year. Blue Ribbon says for Dawkins to own the second forward spot, he needs to become a multi-position player - played only the left side of Beilein's offense last year and needs to expand his game to the right. Also needs to improve assists and attempted free throws. Could end being a revolving door at this position, though.

C: Ricky Doyle (Sophomore, 6'9", 250) - 7'2" wingspan (but only .4 bpg last year) and started 19 games for UM last year. Led UM in 2-point FGs made per 100 possessions (8.6) and averaged 7.1 points on 60% FG shooting. Beilein wants him to extend his game to the point where he can thrive in ball-screen situations and operate effectively with a man on his back. Also needs to improve his rebounding (46 offensive rebounds was a team high, but 52 defensive rebounds ranked 7th). Biggest key for him is conditioning - hasn't dropped any pounds, but shed baby fat and Beilein says he looks fit and defined.​

Key Reserves

G - Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Sophomore, 6'4", 185) - Started final 12 games averaging 35 minutes. Best game as a freshman was against MSU - 18 points (8/14 shooting with two 3P), 1 assist and 3 rebounds). One of UM's best dribble penetrators, reliable free-throw shooter and has a fearless streak to him. Blue Ribbon calls him a natural scorer and can provide a major spark.

PG - Spike Albrecht (Senior, 5'11", 175) - Coming off 2(!) offseason hip surgeries and a repaired torn labrum, figure Spike to be the veteran leader. As we know with Omar, recovering from hip surgery is no sure thing. But Albrecht seems to be one of Beilein's favorite players - "I told our freshmen today 'Watch Spike Albrecht.' That's what college basketball is gravitating to. Diving on the floor, playing at high speed, playing so hard that you can't breathe sometimes. That is what great players do."

F - Kameron Chatman (Sophomore, 6'8", 215) - Had an awful freshman year - ranked last on the team in FG% and 3P%, had 29 turnovers, and was often lost defensively. Has good potential - lefty with a nice midrange game and can shoot the 3.

C - Mark Donnal (Sophomore RS, 6'9", 240) - Slotted to be 14/15 starting center, but ended up being outperformed by freshman Doyle. Can hit the midrange and even the long ball, but appears to play too soft for the center position.

F/C - D.J. Wilson (Freshman RS, 6'9", 240) - Top 150 recruit in 2014. Entered UM coming off a stress fracture of the fifth lumbar vertabrae as a HS player, then fractured a finger during summer workouts, then sprained his right 5 games into season and took a medical redshirt. Added 20 pounds to his frame and has a 7'2" wingspan - likely to play in the middle at the 4 or 5 spot where he can rebound, dunk and alter shots.​

Newcomers

G/F - Duncan Robinson (Sophomore RS, 6'8", 210) - Transfer from DIII Williams College. As a freshman, led Williams College to DIII National Championship and was voted DIII freshman of the year. Could provide scoring and spacing for the team, but remains to be seen how he performs against athletic, DI opponents.

F - Moritz Wagner (Freshman, 6'10, 225) - Had interest from UConn, and it's been proven that having at least one German player on your roster infinitely increases your chances of winning a national championship. Went from 211 to 226 within two months of arriving on UM's campus. He will be in the mix for the 4 and 5 spot, but can shoot it from deep.​

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Overall, Blue Ribbon gives UM a B+ for backcourt, B for frontcourt, A for bench/depth and A for intangibles.

Having veteran leadership for UM this year is huge, but they need to be healthy. UConn plays them early enough in the season where I think we'll be seeing a full UM roster.

 

[aceboon]

Wouldn't really surprise me if Michigan is just as good as Maryland this year in the Big 10, pretty good chance Levert will be the best player on the floor in the Mich/UComn matchup.

 

[raf46]

I know we're doomed and are still unsure about our first 3 vs Maine, UNH and Furman

Looking at UM's roster I only recognize a couple guys an returning impact guys, if even that. I know Albrecht is a steady guard for them and LeVert, while inconsistent, is a solid scorer but where else will they turn to for experience. The kid Chapman who UConn also recruited at one point showed glimpses I believe but they will be inexperienced. The freshman (including Moritz Wagner of Germany also mentioned UConn) will be required early and often to provide impact for Bielein. This is our door to the winners bracket in Atlantis so I was wondering what others remember about this team as I did not see much of them last year?

Doomed? Kidding right? Once the team settles in we will be very good. Final Four Good!

 

[James]

Levert is indeed a monster test for purvis or hamilton, i'm not even sure who matches up with him... UM has a size advantage at both the 2&3 and they are the best players for them. Uconns advantage lies in a better pg rotation and shonn miller, who should by all means have a big outing ( rebounding, finishing around the tin).

 

[mauconnfan]

The stat guys get the work done for me - nice thanks.

They look a lot better than I thought and will be a huge test for our Huskies to get in to the winners side. Revert is a good test for our guys but the same could be said for him vs DHam. Didn't realize how tough the injury bug was on them last year.

Let's go!!!!!

 

[Dogbreath2U]

Levert is indeed a monster test for purvis or hamilton, i'm not even sure who matches up with him... UM has a size advantage at both the 2&3 and they are the best players for them. Uconns advantage lies in a better pg rotation and shonn miller, who should by all means have a big outing ( rebounding, finishing around the tin).

I wonder if KO might move Miller to guard a player the size of Levert. UM has 3 6'6"-6'7" size starters, so we could mix and match as none are listed over 215 lbs.

 

[Kitaman]

Doomed? Kidding right? Once the team settles in we will be very good. Final Four Good!

I know you mean well, but we ain't that good. Sure we have the parts, but Ollie has got to still build the machine. It won't look anything like we had last year so we can't predict what the end result will be. Personally I think we won't really know what we have until say mid-January.

Sure the staff know the manual (building a Championship Team), and know what they want to build and they certainly have a fantastic toolbox with great looking tools. Just saying that Ollie and staff still have a job to do building a Final Four Team.

We also have to identify that alpha dog, the All American contender to lead us to the promise land. Hamilton? Purvis? Gibbs?

As for Michigan, they have an advantage over us, in that they know each other, so I won't be surprised at the result either way. I expect a real close and exciting game, especially after reading Mr Factual's @tcf15 great report.

 

[Leebo]

Doomed? Kidding right?

It's a meme, raf.

 

[Silk31]

Beating Michigan will be huge for us to move on in the winner's bracket of the tourney. We need all the help we can get in terms of bolstering our SOS & RPI as we know we can't expect conference play to do us any favors in that department.

 

[Yankees32123]

Some talk about size disadvantage, but I think this year's team is one of the bigger teams we've had in a while. No one shorter than 6'2" and good size on the wings with Hamilton (6'7"), Purvis (6'4" and built like a tank), Omar (6'5") and Shonn Miller (6'7", built, and can guard either of Lavert or Irvin IMO). I think we'll match up size wise with any team in the country, much unlike 2014 when both our guards were tiny and had to go against Mich. St, Florida and Kentucky who were huge that year. Irvin and Purvis have had very similar career trajectories so far, as both were prolific scorers in HS and have "underachieved" with flashes of dominance, so I think the game will be decided amongst those two. I'm hoping Shonn Miller can contain Irvin though.

 

[BFieldHusky]

I actually think Michigan will be a tougher opponent than Syracuse would be if we both advance. One thing to remember...even before the injuries last year, Michigan really struggled defensively.