a higher seed may be just what we need

[uconngb]

Projected somewhere between 7-9, for the ncaa tourney, also depends on st.johns and BET,
But I think we are better off playing tough teams early on.
This team has played it's best, by far, in the toughest spots: facing depaul defeat, on the road in Milwaukee, on the road in Omaha, last night 2nd half down 14 season in the balance. Etc.

Alex himself said, paraphrasing, that this team doesn't get up for some games.
If we get a Maryland again, or a Louisville first round I'd feel better than if we drew Miami-ohio or Drake.

I would also love to play #1seed in rd 2 or 3. Last years team, seeded #1 overall, got off on running every possession to a T, no matter the opponent. They played against themselves. This years team needs a grudge

There is no statistical reason for this. I also know that we won't be a top 5 seed anyway, unless we win the big east and run the table. But give me an 8 seed and watch out

Isn’t that a lower seed???

 

[bendm]

The best seed for any team in UConn's predicament (i.e., they won't be a top-5 seed) is 6th in the worst 1st seed's bracket. Then they get to play 11th, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st seeds in that order.

To be a 6th seed, UConn needs to be around 21-24 in the committee's eyes. If UConn goes on a run from now on, they can achieve that.

I’d rather be a 6 than a 5. Gimme the 11, 3, and 2 seed over the 12, 4, and 1 every time.

 

[auror]

Yep.

These people are out of their gourd if they think we’re better off playing a one seed.

Have any of them watched any of Auburn’s games?

The 1/2 seeds are historically strong this year. There have been 5 teams with a pre-tournament KenPom >33 adjEM in the last decade. All 5 made the Final Four. This year, there are 4 such teams currently (Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida). 5 in a decade, 4 this year.

 

[RuffRuff]

The 1/2 seeds are historically strong this year. There have been 5 teams with a pre-tournament KenPom >33 adjEM in the last decade. All 5 made the Final Four. This year, there are 4 such teams currently (Duke, Auburn, Houston, Florida). 5 in a decade, 4 this year.

Great point and why I’ve said we want to avoid the 8-9 line, in either direction. A 10 is way better than an 8-9.

 

[auror]

Great point and why I’ve said we want to avoid the 8-9 line, in either direction. A 10 is way better than an 8-9.

Ideally we get to the 6 seed. At least one of Florida or Houston is going to end up as a 2 and I'd rather not spin that roulette wheel. Let's get to the Sweet 16 before playing an analytical monster.

 

[RuffRuff]

Ideally we get to the 6 seed. At least one of Florida or Houston is going to end up as a 2 and I'd rather not spin that roulette wheel. Let's get to the Sweet 16 before playing an analytical monster.

100% I just don’t know what our chances of jumping 2-3 lines are at this point. We could forget about it with a loss to StJ Sunday. We’d have to practically win out at this rate.

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

Not having had Liam (arguably our best player) for a long stretch makes our record somewhat skewed. We will likely be seeded a few lines below where we would have been if he had been healthy all year, playing, learning more team chemistry etc... Whomever gets us in first two games is not going to be happy.

 

[djct1999]

Yeah but it is more about Physicality that we have issus with. Think St. John's but on steroids. Duke i'm not worried about even if they have Copper Flagg. They are still soft and more of a Finesse team from what I have seen.

And if the game is in Raleigh, Duke will be in the bonus by the under 12 timeout.

 

[gtcam]

Hmmm. Duke is enormous, Houston is tiny.

maybe but the coaching makes the difference- Sampson is the best coach in the NCAA
Scheyer wilts in the tight games

 

[ctbro1999]

If we end up a 7-10 seed, the 1/2 seed bracketed to face us (assuming we win) is NOT gonna be happy to see our name pop up opposite them on Selection Sunday, that's for sure.

 

[ctbro1999]

Not having had Liam (arguably our best player) for a long stretch makes our record somewhat skewed. We will likely be seeded a few lines below where we would have been if he had been healthy all year, playing, learning more team chemistry etc... Whomever gets us in first two games is not going to be happy.

Eh, I don't know how much stock (if any) the committee will put in McNeeley being out. I mean we had him all 3 games of the Maui massacre, along with the Seton Hell game.

 

[Travelman6]

If they had beaten Colorado and shall I don't think we'd be having this convo and UConn would be looking more like a 5 seed, fringe 4. Those are some of the worst regular season losses any UConn team that can be described as good or better has ever had. Not counting the NEastern and Wagner losses as that wasn't a good UConn team that year.

(In fact I wonder what the worst regular season loss a +20 win UConn team has ever had)

 

[RuffRuff]

Eh, I don't know how much stock (if any) the committee will put in McNeeley being out. I mean we had him all 3 games of the Maui massacre, along with the Seton Hell game.

Yeah the Seton Hall loss all but killed that notion. That loss was brutal on so many levels. We’re not getting any credit for injuries. There have been a ton of injuries across the sport.

As for Sampson vs Scheyer, irony is that Scheyer beat him in the tourney last year. The one thing about these defense heavy teams is they tire out.

 

[Scottobot]

Yep.

These people are out of their gourd if they think we’re better off playing a one seed.

Have any of them watched any of Auburn’s games?

Exactly. One seeds are teams typically without flaws. To beat a one seed you have to play 40 minutes of your best basketball. I can’t think of a game where UConn played their best basketball for 30 minutes of a game this season.
This team desperately needs to go on a run and get a 6th. They can beat an 11 seed, and have a decent shot against a 3 seed. That would get the team into sweat 16 and make the season a success.

 

[RuffRuff]

Exactly. One seeds are teams typically without flaws. To beat a one seed you have to play 40 minutes of your best basketball. I can’t think of a game where UConn played their best basketball for 30 minutes of a game this season.
This team desperately needs to go on a run and get a 6th. They can beat an 11 seed, and have a decent shot against a 3 seed. That would get the team into sweat 16 and make the season a success.

Well then you better route like hell Sunday. But yeah getting to the 3 seed line opens things way up.

 

[ctbro1999]

Yeah the Seton Hall loss all but killed that notion. That loss was brutal on so many levels. We’re not getting any credit for injuries. There have been a ton of injuries across the sport.

As for Sampson vs Scheyer, irony is that Scheyer beat him in the tourney last year. The one thing about these defense heavy teams is they tire out.

I mean that loss is like a Q3.9 loss. It is BAD. That game alone probably drops us at least a seed line (maybe even 2).

 

[ctbro1999]

I know earlier this season a lot of people were talking about Creighton like they may very well miss the tourney, while we were solidly a top 4 seed. Looking at the metrics now, ours and Creighton's are eerily similar. Identical 18-8 records, almost identical BE records, #36 and #37 in NET, identical # of Q1/2/3/4 wins too.
You could argue they actually have a slightly better tourney profile as they aren't saddled with a Q3 loss like we are.

 

[RuffRuff]

I know earlier this season a lot of people were talking about Creighton like they may very well miss the tourney, while we were solidly a top 4 seed. Looking at the metrics now, ours and Creighton's are eerily similar. Identical 18-8 records, almost identical BE records, #36 and #37 in NET, identical # of Q1/2/3/4 wins too.
You could argue they actually have a slightly better tourney profile as they aren't saddled with a Q3 loss like we are.

Most brackets have us both in that 8 range.

Creighton is one of those teams that just don’t produce enough dynamic action to be compelling. They are fundamentally great and have Kalk, but low on kill shots. They're paced and don’t really generate anything off defense as their whole mantra is to avoid mistakes/fouls. It’s nice in theory, but then avoids any killer instinct as it relies more on fundamentalling you to death. Kind of mentality that is great for regular seasons but not for tourneys.

 

[gsmooth]

Yeah the Seton Hall loss all but killed that notion. That loss was brutal on so many levels. We’re not getting any credit for injuries. There have been a ton of injuries across the sport.

As for Sampson vs Scheyer, irony is that Scheyer beat him in the tourney last year. The one thing about these defense heavy teams is they tire out.

Don't forget Houston lost their starting PG and best player Jamal Shead in the first half of that game against Duke.

 

[JohnFSilver]

So many ways this could go I think UConn probably a 7 seed right now. If they can win out and do some damage in Big Eest Tourney, probably looking at a 4. They run the table now and through Big East tourney, probably a 3.

Lose out? NIT.

Most likely, I think they are a 6 unless they beat St. John's at MSG and then beat Marquette and take care of the other 3 games.

Who knows. They could be in Final Four this year as a 4 seed, or out in the first round as an 8 seed. Or, they culd be in Final Four as an 8 seed and out of first round as a 4 seed.

I have no confidence, either way, about what this team is.

 

[RuffRuff]

Don't forget Houston lost their starting PG and best player Jamal Shead in the first half of that game against Duke.

Sure, but that was not a great Duke team as they then lost to a whatever NCSt team. For all the toughness Sampson drills, you'd think they could still beat that soft @ss Duke team.

 

[Kolumbo]

Eh, I don't know how much stock (if any) the committee will put in McNeeley being out. I mean we had him all 3 games of the Maui massacre, along with the Seton Hell game.

A agree it won't matter. McNeeley has a lot more experience now though. Check it. Liam had 0 points against Dayton. Bizarre.

 

[gtcam]

Don't forget Houston lost their starting PG and best player Jamal Shead in the first half of that game against Duke.

EXACTLY they played that game with 6 healthy/near healthy players

 

[gtcam]

Sure, but that was not a great Duke team as they then lost to a whatever NCSt team. For all the toughness Sampson drills, you'd think they could still beat that soft @ss Duke team.

every team throws in a klunker now and then. NC State was on one of those weird rolls like Loyola or St Peters
I dont think you will find a more consistent team as far as ranking and records are concerned than Houston over the past decade or so.

 

[Scottobot]

Well then you better route like hell Sunday. But yeah getting to the 3 seed line opens things way up.

I meat getting to 6 seed so they play a 3 in second round rather than having to play a 1 or 2 in second round