A different look at Paige's stats

[MilfordHusky]

We've known for a while that Paige is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation. In fact, she has been leading the nation for a while. She's at 55.84% on the season. Freshman Diamond Johnson of Rutgers is at 53.73%. Aleah Goodman of Oregon State and Katie Benzan are both in the 51-52% range.

Paige is averaging 36.51 minutes per game, good for 43rd in the nation and highly unusual for a freshman, especially a UConn freshman.

She also is scoring 21.1 ppg, which is 25th in the nation.

Her assists are at 5.9 per game, good for 12th in the nation. She has 100 assists. The freshman record is shared by Renee Montgomery and Pam Weber at 123. That will be toast, even in a shortened season.

Her A/TO ratio of 2.38:1 ranks 38th in the nation.

Here's one of her most valuable stats that is often overlooked: Her overall shooting percentage, an outstanding 57.61%, ranks her 15th in the nation but #1 among guards!

 

[MSGRET]

We've known for a while that Paige is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation. In fact, she has been leading the nation for a while. She's at 55.84% on the season. Freshman Diamond Johnson of Rutgers is at 53.73%. Aleah Goodman of Oregon State and Katie Benzan are both in the 51-52% range.

Paige is averaging 36.51 minutes per game, good for 43rd in the nation and highly unusual for a freshman, especially a UConn freshman.

She also is scoring 21.1 ppg, which is 25th in the nation.

Her assists are at 5.9 per game, good for 12th in the nation. She has 100 assists. The freshman record is shared by Renee Montgomery and Pam Weber at 123. That will be toast, even in a shortened season.

Her A/TO ratio of 2.38:1 ranks 38th in the nation.

Here's one of her most valuable stats that is often overlooked: Her overall shooting percentage, an outstanding 57.61%, ranks her 15th in the nation but #1 among guards!

With all the missed bunnies that the team has had on her passes, Paige should've already been past Renee and Pam in assists and would be averaging between 7 - 10 a game.

 

[my2cents]

The point about Paige being a guard is significant. She is not making a high % of her shots from lay ups. Against, St Johns , she made one layup and had 7 outside shots ( 2 threes).
Her last two games, 70% shooting, 62.5% from 3's, 9 assts per.
She doesn't hunt her shots, and still looks to pass first.
She could score any amount of points the coach asked for, or what's needed to win.

 

[TWG236]

Paige has the most beautiful midrange shot I have ever seen. Coming off a screen at the top of the key and stop and pop. As stated by my2cents, she can score anytime she wants. She is the consunate teammate. We will be talking about her on the boneyard for a long long time.

 

[huskyd]

We've known for a while that Paige is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation. In fact, she has been leading the nation for a while. She's at 55.84% on the season. Freshman Diamond Johnson of Rutgers is at 53.73%. Aleah Goodman of Oregon State and Katie Benzan are both in the 51-52% range.

Paige is averaging 36.51 minutes per game, good for 43rd in the nation and highly unusual for a freshman, especially a UConn freshman.

She also is scoring 21.1 ppg, which is 25th in the nation.

Her assists are at 5.9 per game, good for 12th in the nation. She has 100 assists. The freshman record is shared by Renee Montgomery and Pam Weber at 123. That will be toast, even in a shortened season.

Her A/TO ratio of 2.38:1 ranks 38th in the nation.

Here's one of her most valuable stats that is often overlooked: Her overall shooting percentage, an outstanding 57.61%, ranks her 15th in the nation but #1 among guards!

Percentages are always highest for the players who set up under the basket. Leading the guards in shooting percentage is far more remarkable, as guards mostly do it from away from the basket (but not all also lead in 3pt %).

 

[DefenseBB]

We've known for a while that Paige is one of the best 3-point shooters in the nation. In fact, she has been leading the nation for a while. She's at 55.84% on the season. Freshman Diamond Johnson of Rutgers is at 53.73%. Aleah Goodman of Oregon State and Katie Benzan are both in the 51-52% range.

Paige is averaging 36.51 minutes per game, good for 43rd in the nation and highly unusual for a freshman, especially a UConn freshman.

She also is scoring 21.1 ppg, which is 25th in the nation.

Her assists are at 5.9 per game, good for 12th in the nation. She has 100 assists. The freshman record is shared by Renee Montgomery and Pam Weber at 123. That will be toast, even in a shortened season.

Her A/TO ratio of 2.38:1 ranks 38th in the nation.

Here's one of her most valuable stats that is often overlooked: Her overall shooting percentage, an outstanding 57.61%, ranks her 15th in the nation but #1 among guards!

Hey Milford, and any of our other stat savvy BYers, what is the UConn record for Assist-Turnover ratio among players with a large Assist total? That 2.38 is only getting better by the way. I wonder what Diana's, Sue's, Renee's, Moriah's or Jen's ratio was each of their 4 years?

 

[MilfordHusky]

I don't see A:TO as an explicit stat, but here's a selection of career stats from some great players with averages of at least 2.0:

2.65 Moriah: 659:249

2.59 Crystal: 599:231

2.33 Saniya: 308:132

2.12 Lou: 455:215

2.11 Sue: 585:277

2.09 Kia: 442:211

Diana, Jen, Maya, Stewie, Renee, Gabby, Ketia, Kelly, et al. had lots of assists and good A:TO ratios, but less than 2:1.

This was all done manually from the Media Guide. Feel free to check it.

I have even more appreciation for Moriah, Crystal, Saniya, Lou, and Kia. I always have fully appreciated Sue.

 

[diggerfoot]

One thing to bear in mind is that the era from Jefferson to Samuelson featured quite a few outside sharpshooters. This will increase the A/T ratio as it is less riskier feeding the perimeter and if they hit a high % of shots it will reflect well on a guard’s stats. This makes Bird’s stats all the more impressive. Taurasi and Ralph, for example, were not as efficient shooters as KML or Samuelson, plus more offense came from the posts.

As the BY loves to point out, Buecker’s current situation is more like Bird’s than Jefferson’s, et al, in terms of our outside shooters (except for herself) which makes her A/T ratio all the more impressive.

 

[UcMiami]

Digger - agree that having good outside shooting helps get assists, but Sue and Diana for example had great fast breaking teams and very good post play that helped because when they got the pass inside it was a basket. Sue played four years with the highest percentage shooter in Uconn history and DT got two years of that. Here are the best shooting years in Uconn history:
1. .540 (1,356-2,513) 2014-15
2. .539 (1,198-2,223) 1999-00
3. .533 (1,290-2,422) 2017-18
4. .530 (1,299-2,453) 2015-16
5. .527 (1,210-2,295) 2016-17
6. .520 (1,278-2,458) 2001-02
7. .514 (1,139-2,215) 1998-99
8. .511 (1,206-2,362) 2009-10
9. .510 (1,222-2,395) 2008-09
10. .509 (1,086-2,133) 1996-97

Agree that PB is missing some assists because of missed shots (as everyone does) but I think being a good A/TO player is more about not making TOs than about shooting percentages - knowing when to pass and being accurate and not traveling on committing offensive fouls is a big factor. The math works out - a .400 shooter gets you 4 assists in 10 passes, a .500 shooter on gets you one more assist on the same passes whereas cutting out a turnover in those same ten chances would improve you A/TO ratio more than the improved shooting.

And while the inside windows may be narrower, looking at Uconn TOs seems to happen as much ouside as inside especially when you consider the walks and other offensive fouls.

 

[diggerfoot]

Well, except that post shooters get points from putbacks and unassisted moves in the lanes (as do guards with the latter, but you already are filtering that out of your equation). This is particularly true for T. Williams, also one of our better offensive rebounders. A perimeter shooter is assisted more often. Ironically, but to the point, the worse a team shoots from outside the better the shooting % should be by posts from the assist free putbacks. Bottom line, the overall shooting % of a team is not as relevant as the outside shots in influencing A/T ratios.

Walks and offensive fouls can occur in either situation, usually independent of the set up. Not sure what kind of evidence you can call up to prove that a guard who sets up the perimeter will commit more walking and/or offensive fouls than one setting up posts.

But let’s forget all that and just accept your position. If true, then what is your explanation for why Chong is significantly better than Bird at A/T ratio?

 

[hoophuskee]

Here's one of her most valuable stats that is often overlooked: Her overall shooting percentage, an outstanding 57.61%, ranks her 15th in the nation but #1 among guards!

Currently her True Shooting % and her EFG% is better than Curry's ever was. Better than LBJ ever was. and other big name players including the big centers like Jabbar. Paige's True FG% also is surpassing Wilt's Chamberlain's best season of 66-67 in which he shot 68.3% from the floor.

Paige is more efficient as a scorer in terms of stats than all of the all-time great NBA players in her frosh year -- so far.

 

[bballnut90]

Digger - agree that having good outside shooting helps get assists, but Sue and Diana for example had great fast breaking teams and very good post play that helped because when they got the pass inside it was a basket. Sue played four years with the highest percentage shooter in Uconn history and DT got two years of that. Here are the best shooting years in Uconn history:
1. .540 (1,356-2,513) 2014-15
2. .539 (1,198-2,223) 1999-00
3. .533 (1,290-2,422) 2017-18
4. .530 (1,299-2,453) 2015-16
5. .527 (1,210-2,295) 2016-17
6. .520 (1,278-2,458) 2001-02
7. .514 (1,139-2,215) 1998-99
8. .511 (1,206-2,362) 2009-10
9. .510 (1,222-2,395) 2008-09
10. .509 (1,086-2,133) 1996-97

Agree that PB is missing some assists because of missed shots (as everyone does) but I think being a good A/TO player is more about not making TOs than about shooting percentages - knowing when to pass and being accurate and not traveling on committing offensive fouls is a big factor. The math works out - a .400 shooter gets you 4 assists in 10 passes, a .500 shooter on gets you one more assist on the same passes whereas cutting out a turnover in those same ten chances would improve you A/TO ratio more than the improved shooting.

And while the inside windows may be narrower, looking at Uconn TOs seems to happen as much ouside as inside especially when you consider the walks and other offensive fouls.

Worth noting, Tamika Williams only took 5-6 FGA per game her last 3 seasons. Her first season she only played with Bird for 8 games. She also feasted on offensive rebounds for putbacks, so I don't think Williams was a big factor in helping Bird/Taurasi's assist numbers. Bird/DT's assists were lower than Paige's because they almost always had a second distributor on the floor. Ralph led the team in assists in 2000 and was again a big distributor in 2001, DT/Bird overlapped in 2001/2002, and DT shared PG duties with Conlon her last 2 seasons. Paige technically has shared PG duties with Muhl as of late, but for most of the season she has handled a larger distribution load than Bird or Taurasi did.

The high team FG% seasons correlate with the years UCONN was in the AAC without Louisville, with 2015-2018 being 4 of the 5 highest seasons. Having players like Collier and Williams also helps immensely. 2000 is the one non-AAC year that made the top 5, and they had a very efficient lineup. Shea Ralph shot a ridiculous 62% from the field as an off guard, plus Svet, Schumacher, and all 4 of the TASS force all shot 50% from the field or higher. IIRC those were their top 7 scorers...I'm not sure any team has ever had their top 7 scorers all shoot 50% from the field or higher. That team is underrated.

In regards to Paige's shooting, the percentages she has right now are truly unreal. I don't think there has ever been a guard who has been such a high usage player that's come close to shooting over 55% from both the floor and from deep, plus rank high nationally in assists per game. Usually with high usage comes lower percentages but she's an anomaly. I don't expect her percentages to stay so high throughout her career since players inevitably go through ups and downs, but who knows, she's pretty unique.

 

[DefenseBB]

Ok, so like some of you, I did some research myself and calculations- I chose, by looking at all their 4 years of data on. The highest A/To ratio for each of them was
Player-----FrYr/SoYr/JrYr/SrYr
Bird-------1.56/2.00/1.92/2.48
Taurasi----1.51/2.51/1.40/2.05
Montgomery-1.52/1.72/1.96/1.99
Hartley----1.10/1.43/1.58/2.08
Jefferson--1.41/2.95/3.08/2.83
Rizzotti----.90/1.67/1.87/1.93

Paige-----2.38 which ranks 6th best behind MoJeff 2015 season and 2014 season and 2016 seasons. Diana's sophomore year 2.51 and Sue Bird's Senior Yr 2.48.

That Paige is doing this her Freshman year is also pretty impressive.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Ok, so like some of you, I did some research myself and calculations- I chose, by looking at all their 4 years of data on. The highest A/To ratio for each of them was
Player-----FrYr/SoYr/JrYr/SrYr
Bird-------1.56/2.00/1.92/2.48
Taurasi----1.51/2.51/1.40/2.05
Montgomery-1.52/1.72/1.96/1.99
Hartley----1.10/1.43/1.58/2.08
Jefferson--1.41/2.95/3.08/2.83
Rizzotti----.90/1.67/1.87/1.93

Paige-----2.38 which ranks 6th best behind MoJeff 2015 season and 2014 season and 2016 seasons. Diana's sophomore year 2.51 and Sue Bird's Senior Yr 2.48.

That Paige is doing this her Freshman year is also pretty impressive.

Those MoJeff numbers are insane! She learned early on to pass the ball to Stewie and Kaleena.

 

[oldude]

Paige has the most beautiful midrange shot I have ever seen. Coming off a screen at the top of the key and stop and pop. As stated by my2cents, she can score anytime she wants. She is the consunate teammate. We will be talking about her on the boneyard for a long long time.

That midrange shot makes UConn’s pick and roll undefendable Liv & Aaliyah are becoming better every game at setting screens for Paige and rolling to the basket. Paige has that unique ability to hold onto the ball until the last second before deciding whether to shoot or pass.

Opposing defenders are falling all over themselves to defend Paige’s midrange shot, opening up the lane for easy baskets from the Bigs. The best thing is that we will all get to see this over and over for the next 4 seasons.

 

[my2cents]

If we are talking about assts. If you look at Paige's Hopkins highlights ( which You Tube puts in front of me). You will see a player who had much more "glitz" in her game. Fancy dribbling, around the back passes, no look passes, etc.
Her HS team mates were more prepared for that as they had played with her much longer than her current team mates.
Geno has undoubtedly advised her to tone that down, unless she wanted all her team mates to have broken noses, and have to wear face masks.

 

[Gurleyman]

Those MoJeff numbers are insane! She learned early on to pass the ball to Stewie and Kaleena.

I have MoJeff on my all time UConn starting 5 (based on college) - and she stays if/when Paige is officially on it. Those were the Stewie years in UConn lore, but MoJeff’s play at both ends was another reason those teams were untouchable.

Hard to leave Bird off, but MoJeff was the Defensive Player of the Year in addition to 55 percent shooting and a 3:1 ratio. She played PG as well as it can be played.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I have MoJeff on my all time UConn starting 5 (based on college) - and she stays if/when Paige is officially on it. Those were the Stewie years in UConn lore, but MoJeff’s play at both ends was another reason those teams were untouchable.

Hard to leave Bird off, but MoJeff was the Defensive Player of the Year in addition to 55 percent shooting and a 3:1 ratio. She played PG as well as it can be played.

MoJeff was effective enough to be the NPOY if not for her lanky teammate.

 

[blkkirk]

It is a shame that MoJeff has been injured her professional career. I think her and Collier have been the two most complete players we have had. Great offensively and defensively.

 

[Gurleyman]

I didn’t see the Gtown game live but watched it later on replay with an eye for how much she was trying to facilitate. I think we took 22 shots off Paige passes (I didn’t check my math) and most were really good looks. Nine went in. You don’t expect every shot to go in, but if we had a good shooting day, she could have had 14-15, given the quality of those shots.

 

[CTisballers]

She easily can average more then 21.1 a game also

 

[Phil]

Let's not forget Maria Conlon, who had good numbers as well.

Year Fr /So /Jr / Se/ Career
Conlon 1.63/2.06/2.0/1.69/1.89

 

[ABCDFE]

Ok, so like some of you, I did some research myself and calculations- I chose, by looking at all their 4 years of data on. The highest A/To ratio for each of them was
Player-----FrYr/SoYr/JrYr/SrYr
Bird-------1.56/2.00/1.92/2.48
Taurasi----1.51/2.51/1.40/2.05
Montgomery-1.52/1.72/1.96/1.99
Hartley----1.10/1.43/1.58/2.08
Jefferson--1.41/2.95/3.08/2.83
Rizzotti----.90/1.67/1.87/1.93

Paige-----2.38 which ranks 6th best behind MoJeff 2015 season and 2014 season and 2016 seasons. Diana's sophomore year 2.51 and Sue Bird's Senior Yr 2.48.

That Paige is doing this her Freshman year is also pretty impressive.

All the more impressive for Paige given the teammates MoJeff, D and Sue had those years.

 

[DriveLH]

Saniya Chong's senior year 140 assists to 42 turnovers : 3.33