90 pts per game?

[Cuango]

Just win #12! The rest is just noise. I don’t care about any of the rest, except for health, of course! I’m sure Paige et al would all be happy scoring ten points under their career averages if they could just win that title! Of course, we know that‘s not going to happen but I’m pretty sure that’s how they feel. . “Just win, Baby!”

 

[RockyMTblue2]

If UCONN scores 75 ppg, and wins the NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP, I would be very happy!
Add Paige again being the National Player of the Year, and a repeat consensus ALL AMERICAN,
and, of course, the # 1 WNBA Draft Pick! Do I ask too much? Let me add a healthy and
productive year for AZZI, Carolyn, and Aubrey! Go EVERYBODY! Let the games begin!

I wouldn't count on 75 winning the Natie. And that only play 6 in the NCAAs is maybe a necessity, but I'd want 9 ready to go. Hence blooding the kiddies.

 

[Stagnant]

They could get 90 PPG. I really think the big east is going to be bad this year. And they will be able to pick their score in those games.

 

[Bigboote]

What does everyone think: can the team get 8 more possession on average?

That's equivalent to going from 40 seconds per trip up and down the floor to 34 seconds. That certainly happens in some games, but most UConn foes don't try to quicken the pace of the game.

 

[Zarathustra]

I wouldn't count on 75 winning the Natie. And that only play 6 in the NCAAs is maybe a necessity, but I'd want 9 ready to go. Hence blooding the kiddies.

What I meant was UCONN scoring 75 points per game for the regular season. The thread was
a discussion of " 90 points per game". The gist of what I was saying, somewhat poorly, was
that I really don't care how many points the team scores.... the only important Stat is winning the last
game of the season. I apologize for the confusion! "GO UCONN... score more than the other teams!"

 

[Vowelguy]

Will Paige & Co score 90 points/game this season? If so, where will it come from?

 

[Bone Dog]

Is Judge Judy being recruited?

 

[DefenseBB]

Ok, ignoring my knee jerk reaction of this author is off his rocker, I did an analytic approach of looking at the statistics of the leading scoring teams for the last 12 years and UConn's scoring during the years they didn't lead it.

In the past 12 years (back to 2012-13 season) exactly 3 teams have averaged more than 90 points per game during the season:

• 2014 Oregon 93.2 with 81.5 Field Goals attempted and 22 3 pt attempts with 10.7 steals
• 2021 Maryland 90.8, 67.6 FGA, 20.4 3GA, 9 steals
• 2024 Iowa 91.0 65.5 FGA, 29 3GA, 7.4 steals
• Only 91 teams in 12 years have averaged more than 80 points per game (UConn 7 times with a high of 89.0 in 2015

While not impossible it is highly, highly improbable. The last 3 years, UConn has averaged only 74.47 points per game. This is a key concern as our league, the Big East, will slow down the pace to use every bit of the shot clock and slow the UConn tempo down as they don't have the same athletes we do.
During our last 4 years in the BE, we averaged
77.8 pts 60.7 FGA and 18.9 3ptA

In the 8 years before we averaged
84.9, 63.4 and 21.0 3 PtA

As UConn has NEVER averaged 90 points per game for a season and with a league that is notorious for milking the shot clock, I am pretty confident we will be hard pressed to break 80 points per game.

Items to consider are possessions per game, shot attempts, ability to make those shots and strong offensive rebounding plus steals to get easy transition baskets. Temper the over exuberance on what you THINK the skill set of the team is with the past 4 years of the reality.

 

[UcMiami]

Averaging 90 points a game - Uconn has done it once, in 1998-99 - the first year of the TASSK force at 91.2 points. That was also before the BE got really good, and while Uconn was playing some quite questionable OOC games against the likes of Holy Cross. They were bringing Swin, Tamika, and Asjha (freshmen) off the bench, while Shea and Sveta were the stars.

They had a run at it in 1994-5 (89.5), and 1999-2000 (86.1), 2000-01 (86.7) and 2001-02 (87.0).

And they had a stretch in their AAC days in the years from 2014-15 through 2017-18 ranging from 87.1-89.4.

The last of the top 10 was Maya's sophomore year at 83.9.

It is not just the speed of games, but also the quality the the reserves that inevitably play large portions of the fourth quarter in blow-outs. This year we have enough talent (though young) off the bench that we should be able to keep the score ticking over. But Geno is much more likely to also slow the offense these days to work the half court offensive sets with the reserves than he used to.

 

[Skeets]

Look, a heck of a lot of respective posters put a of time in this, but here's my (often mistaken) opinion. Geno has the fire power to approach 100 in every BE game. But will he? Why? Where is the margin in that? More likely he'll empty his bench early, and then run the clock late. Do you really think Geno wants to embarrass the BE? That doesn't help jack...

 

[uconnfan68]

Will Paige & Co score 90 points/game this season? If so, where will it come from?

In the Paige era, which really only consists of 2 season so far, the girls have only managed 80+ twice:

• 82 points (20-21)
• 80 points (23-24).

The other two seasons, with Paige mainly riding the rehab bench (sigh), they scored

• 74 points (21-22)
• 76 points (22-23)

Geno's teams have won NCs without breaking the 80 point barrier, so this isn't necessarily a prerequisite. In fact, the team has only broken the 90 point barrier once (98-99), and this was not an NC year. But some of the strongest teams flirted with 90 points, like the last two Stewie teams, 89 points (14-15) and 88 points (15-16). And the NC team featuring Rebecca scored 89.5 points (94-95). In other words, Geno's teams can win it all with defense or offense, and sometimes both.

But if this team is truly special, as I believe, led by one of the most special players in the game right now, I wonder if they can break the 90 point barrier and win an NC. What would it take, and from whom? Paige averaged 22 points/game last season. It may not be unreasonable to think once Azzi returns, that she'll average something similar. And we know Ash can fill it up, as can Kaitlyn. One question mark is Caroline -- if she can truly return, it's not unreasonable to expect 10-12 points from her. The same for Aubrey. The other question marks are Ice Jana and Sarah. Once unleashed on opponents in her more natural position at PF, can Ice get 12 points in 20 mins? And if Jana can stay in games, can she manage 12 points? And finally Sarah, who I think is good for 14 points.

These are all optimistic numbers. But even if no one but Paige scores 20, the rest of an 8 player rotation only needs to average 9 points to get close to 90, which seems conservative to me. And that's not counting the wild cards like Allie and Qadence. I expect any of these players can go off for 20+ in any given game. For one thing, the team shot 36% from 3, and while they lose Nika's 40% effort, they get back Azzi and add the newcomer Allie, who looks to be capable of lighting it up from behind the arc. They averaged 17 attempts/g last season and made 6. Just up those numbers slightly to 20 attempts and 7.5 makes (or a conservative 37.5%) and that could make a significant difference, especially in opening up the paint for Jana and Ice.

We've all mused this summer on the plethora of sharpshooters Geno has on the roster. If those dreams come true, it would look something like this. And I think it would be a fitting signature for Paige to put on her final season, to win an NC and lead the team to a new scoring mark.

Like Dean Smith holding down Jordan, Geno will hold down his team so as not to embarrass opponents he respects.

 

[cferraro04]

Great analysis! Of course, I’m sure you know that Chen went to Princeton - not Fairfield. Just a preseason “brain fart”. I’m sure you’ll do better once the games begin

Oops, lol I guess it is obvious that I have not accepted the fact that we only had Lou Senechal Lopez for one season. You are right, however, I am not in mid-season game shape yet lol

 

[oldhusky]

That's equivalent to going from 40 seconds per trip up and down the floor to 34 seconds. That certainly happens in some games, but most UConn foes don't try to quicken the pace of the game.

This is an interesting take, and I agree that most Uconn foes don't necessarily try to quicken the pace. My way of looking at the numbers would be a little different. The 40 seconds per trip "up and down the floor" includes one offensive possession and one defensive one. So if there was no impact on the other team's pace I think Uconn would have to reduce their average possession from 20 to 14 seconds to achieve saving 6 seconds on the round-trip.

That is a huge difference, but while we don't have the same level of control of the opponents pace, we can influence that with a pressing defense that speeds up the pace by getting turnovers early in the shot clock, and speeding them up as they try to break the press by moving the ball quickly up the court.

So maybe if you are trying to shave 6 seconds off per round-trip, you could get there by saving 4 seconds on the offensive end and 2 on the defensive end, still a pretty major change.

 

[VaConnFan11]

You have to keep in mind that Geno slows the game down himself in the 4th quarter of blowouts. UConn would have to average 75 ppg through the 3rd quarter to have a chance with 15 points in the 4th. It's hard to maintain 25 points per quarter for a season. I also believe that the "toss-up" games on the schedule will be defensive battles rather than shootouts.

So to answer the OP's question...No.

 

[Ozimoto]

We as a group have this idea that the team will be an offensive juggernaut and the team will rain threes all over the place. We shall see...

 

[DEpup]

I think UConn would need to consistently work the press in order to generate turnovers and quick run out scores to average 90. I think everyone is correct in saying that most schools utilize a strategy to use all their shot clock to limit possessions against UConn to keep the score low.

 

[Bigboote]

Is Judge Judy being recruited?

I hear she has quite the two-hand set shot.

 

[DefenseBB]

Averaging 90 points a game - Uconn has done it once, in 1998-99 - the first year of the TASSK force at 91.2 points. That was also before the BE got really good, and while Uconn was playing some quite questionable OOC games against the likes of Holy Cross. They were bringing Swin, Tamika, and Asjha (freshmen) off the bench, while Shea and Sveta were the stars.

They had a run at it in 1994-5 (89.5), and 1999-2000 (86.1), 2000-01 (86.7) and 2001-02 (87.0).

And they had a stretch in their AAC days in the years from 2014-15 through 2017-18 ranging from 87.1-89.4.

The last of the top 10 was Maya's sophomore year at 83.9.

It is not just the speed of games, but also the quality the the reserves that inevitably play large portions of the fourth quarter in blow-outs. This year we have enough talent (though young) off the bench that we should be able to keep the score ticking over. But Geno is much more likely to also slow the offense these days to work the half court offensive sets with the reserves than he used to.

I appreciate the history of what happened 25+ years ago but the whole world of Women's College Basketball has changed. The depth of talent has increased 10-fold or more and the quality of coaching has dramatically increased so UConn doesn't have the top 8 best players on the floor anymore and the gap between our staff and the opponent is narrower than ever.

Two items thwart the notion of 90+point games, UConn's defensive intensity required that opposing teams have to work for the best shot for all 30 seconds and our own working the shot clock for our best shot against better coaching and players. Simply put, we do not create enough opportunities to get to 90 points. I think this year we will get to 80 point (Just barely) but 90 is pure folly. The fact you had to go all the way back to 1998-99 proves my point on how hard it really is.

In looking at the 3 teams I mentioned, the Oregon team in 2013-14 (Before Sabrina) was 16-16 and gave up 89 points per game so those games were a track meet with the Ducks hoisting an unheard of 31 3 point shots a game. By comparison, Iowa last year had 29 3 point shots per game. Maryland was a very fast paced team in 2020-21 and not known for their defensive intensity. Same goes for Iowa last year as the Hawkeye opponents actually averaged more shots per game than Iowa did.

Given the UConn focus on defense these past 10 years, there is simply very limited opportunities for us to get the number of possessions needed to score 90.

I will take my analysis of the statistics of the last 12 years of WCBB and the UConn efforts vs. the generation ago of stats or the "Pollyanna" view of the Husky's world to paint a rosy picture that simply does not exist.

The other big problem this team has for any point prognostication is we lost a 59.3% FG scorer in Aaliyah and are replacing that with 43.6% shooting Ice Brady. While Kaitlyn Chen shot a good 48.8% on her overall FG, her 32.6% 3 point shot is abysmal. Her career 3 point shooting is 29.3% on a paltry 51/174 shooting stat line. This is not an elite shooter like Lou or even Nika (who shot 40.2% last year on 51/127 and 36.2% for her career). Take a good look at that set of data. Nika, last year alone made as many 3's as Kaitlyn has her whole career and on LESS SHOT ATTEMPTS. Yes, we get Azzi back so that helps but getting to 90 simply is not realistic.

 

[UcMiami]

I appreciate the history of what happened 25+ years ago but the whole world of Women's College Basketball has changed. The depth of talent has increased 10-fold or more and the quality of coaching has dramatically increased so UConn doesn't have the top 8 best players on the floor anymore and the gap between our staff and the opponent is narrower than ever.

Two items thwart the notion of 90+point games, UConn's defensive intensity required that opposing teams have to work for the best shot for all 30 seconds and our own working the shot clock for our best shot against better coaching and players. Simply put, we do not create enough opportunities to get to 90 points. I think this year we will get to 80 point (Just barely) but 90 is pure folly. The fact you had to go all the way back to 1998-99 proves my point on how hard it really is.

In looking at the 3 teams I mentioned, the Oregon team in 2013-14 (Before Sabrina) was 16-16 and gave up 89 points per game so those games were a track meet with the Ducks hoisting an unheard of 31 3 point shots a game. By comparison, Iowa last year had 29 3 point shots per game. Maryland was a very fast paced team in 2020-21 and not known for their defensive intensity. Same goes for Iowa last year as the Hawkeye opponents actually averaged more shots per game than Iowa did.

Given the UConn focus on defense these past 10 years, there is simply very limited opportunities for us to get the number of possessions needed to score 90.

I will take my analysis of the statistics of the last 12 years of WCBB and the UConn efforts vs. the generation ago of stats or the "Pollyanna" view of the Husky's world to paint a rosy picture that simply does not exist.

The other big problem this team has for any point prognostication is we lost a 59.3% FG scorer in Aaliyah and are replacing that with 43.6% shooting Ice Brady. While Kaitlyn Chen shot a good 48.8% on her overall FG, her 32.6% 3 point shot is abysmal. Her career 3 point shooting is 29.3% on a paltry 51/174 shooting stat line. This is not an elite shooter like Lou or even Nika (who shot 40.2% last year on 51/127 and 36.2% for her career). Take a good look at that set of data. Nika, last year alone made as many 3's as Kaitlyn has her whole career and on LESS SHOT ATTEMPTS. Yes, we get Azzi back so that helps but getting to 90 simply is not realistic.

All true, but you dismiss the 2017-18 Uconn team that scored 89.4 points per game, at the end of a string of 4 years where they averaged 86+ points each year. And that was probably fueled by great defense leading to lots of steals and fast breaks in Moriah, Gabby, et al, and great scorers in Morgan, Stewie, Lou, Phesa, et al. Those were AAC years, but really is the newBE and tougher?

 

[Cuango]

I appreciate the history of what happened 25+ years ago but the whole world of Women's College Basketball has changed. The depth of talent has increased 10-fold or more and the quality of coaching has dramatically increased so UConn doesn't have the top 8 best players on the floor anymore and the gap between our staff and the opponent is narrower than ever.

Two items thwart the notion of 90+point games, UConn's defensive intensity required that opposing teams have to work for the best shot for all 30 seconds and our own working the shot clock for our best shot against better coaching and players. Simply put, we do not create enough opportunities to get to 90 points. I think this year we will get to 80 point (Just barely) but 90 is pure folly. The fact you had to go all the way back to 1998-99 proves my point on how hard it really is.

In looking at the 3 teams I mentioned, the Oregon team in 2013-14 (Before Sabrina) was 16-16 and gave up 89 points per game so those games were a track meet with the Ducks hoisting an unheard of 31 3 point shots a game. By comparison, Iowa last year had 29 3 point shots per game. Maryland was a very fast paced team in 2020-21 and not known for their defensive intensity. Same goes for Iowa last year as the Hawkeye opponents actually averaged more shots per game than Iowa did.

Given the UConn focus on defense these past 10 years, there is simply very limited opportunities for us to get the number of possessions needed to score 90.

I will take my analysis of the statistics of the last 12 years of WCBB and the UConn efforts vs. the generation ago of stats or the "Pollyanna" view of the Husky's world to paint a rosy picture that simply does not exist.

The other big problem this team has for any point prognostication is we lost a 59.3% FG scorer in Aaliyah and are replacing that with 43.6% shooting Ice Brady. While Kaitlyn Chen shot a good 48.8% on her overall FG, her 32.6% 3 point shot is abysmal. Her career 3 point shooting is 29.3% on a paltry 51/174 shooting stat line. This is not an elite shooter like Lou or even Nika (who shot 40.2% last year on 51/127 and 36.2% for her career). Take a good look at that set of data. Nika, last year alone made as many 3's as Kaitlyn has her whole career and on LESS SHOT ATTEMPTS. Yes, we get Azzi back so that helps but getting to 90 simply is not realistic

I too think the 90 point barrier is virtually impossible in this day & age. By far imo, the more important stat is how many points we can hold our opposition to! Last season I believe we allowed 57.2 ppg. (SC allowed 56.6) I am clearly no expert on these things but I think it’s reasonable to expect that, considering the pool of healthy players available, our defense is likely capable of being better than it was last season? We did lose a defensive force in Nika of course, but we should be getting Aubrey back so I’m thinking that will be fairly close to a wash. Meanwhile, we have a big that should shore up our middle, a potentially massive upgrade in our rebounding, more (and less) experience, and lots more fouls and minutes for Geno to use. I’m hoping we can get that number down to 55 (or below) but at least maintain the 57.2. Assuming we have a healthy season, this is the more important (and more achievable) number that will ultimately determine our chances of raising a 12th banner! Go Huskies!

 

[DefenseBB]

All true, but you dismiss the 2017-18 Uconn team that scored 89.4 points per game, at the end of a string of 4 years where they averaged 86+ points each year. And that was probably fueled by great defense leading to lots of steals and fast breaks in Moriah, Gabby, et al, and great scorers in Morgan, Stewie, Lou, Phesa, et al. Those were AAC years, but really is the newBE and tougher?

so, do you want to make a monetary bet on this team scoring 90+ points or is all your bravado just that?

 

[Tonyc]

This team has the potential to score alot of points and score them in a hurry. We have a roster that will allow that. Understand that it takes time to develop team chemistry. We have alot of underclassman and newbies. Yes we can score 90 pts a game however based on past seasons Geno calls off the dogs when in a blow out. We are gonna have alot of games where we get off to a fast start and a big lead. I expect the non starters to be worked in to adjust to college ball, and adjust to UConn ball. We will still score often and I expect our defense to once again lead the way to victory for us.

Paige is a player who can take control of games just like she did her freshman season. We saw that and I expect that this season. When Azzi gets back and I hope its by December that duo is going to draw alot of attention.

We could score 90 pts a game with our roster. We may however the key this season is to get healthy and stay healthy. Can you imagine playing the defense we played last season with the players we have this season? I think its coming. This is gonna be an exciting season and I dont see any team beating us if we stay healthy.

 

[DEpup]

I wonder if a better question is can we average the 50 mark by half time. That then allows Geno to be classy and call off the dogs in the second half.

 

[UcMiami]

so, do you want to make a monetary bet on this team scoring 90+ points or is all your bravado just that?

I think it is very doubtful - but they came 0.6 points/game short just 6 years ago was all I was pointing out.

I think if everyone is healthy Geno has a team he can press with full court for long stretches. And he has gifted scores all over the roster and players who can run. I would not be surprised if there is a rise in steals, blocked shots and rebounding with the height and length at all positions and some quicks. This is a team that can gamble a little more on the outside with the added height in the middle. All that is to say, they should score a lot of points. And the bench is full of players that can score when Geno sits the starters.

In the end I don't actually care. I am more interested in the MOV, and whether they can become stifling on defense again. The days when we flirted with allowing only 50 ppg were great.

 

[Happydad745]

Geno has enough players to run the floor and push other teams to exhaustion, so scoring more points is possible. Geno favors a good defense, and, in my opinion, sees better scoring as a result of it. I am basing this on my limited basketball knowledge.

 

[Skeets]

I wonder if a better question is can we average the 50 mark by half time. That then allows Geno to be classy and call off the dogs in the second half.

Thats an even better question because against, let's say an average BE team, the starters are likely to get more minutes in the first half than in the second half. Of course the end on Geno's bench isn't chopped liver either.

 

[Rowdy831]

I would agree that Geno will not run up the score but I don't think he is going to ask his players to miss on purpose either. Think of the players that will be on the court when the second team is out there cleaning up the game and many of those faces will be players they counted on last year to play big minutes.

With that said it is hard to put up 90 points per game when you focus on ball movement and run a motion offense. If they are outstanding they may be close to an 80 point average but really a solid win is a solid win regardless of how many points you put up. I would rather see them try to hold an opponent to under 50 per game.

 

[Ex Nutmegger]

I project an average of 93.6 points per game and seven 100 point games. I’d go even higher if I didn’t agree with those who say Geno will be doing everything he can to slow things down without compromising style of play.

 

[HopJim]

Not sure with UConn's schedule that I care about averaging 90 a game. More interested in what the plus and minus is against top 10 or top 20 teams. If we average about 75-78 points a game against top 20 teams while also averaging 5-7 more points per game, I will be happy.

 

[DefenseBB]

I project an average of 93.6 points per game and seven 100 point games. I’d go even higher if I didn’t agree with those who say Geno will be doing everything he can to slow things down without compromising style of play.

And you still believe in the Tooth fairy, Easter Bunny and Santa Claus?