90 pts per game?

[Bone Dog]

Will Paige & Co score 90 points/game this season? If so, where will it come from?

In the Paige era, which really only consists of 2 season so far, the girls have only managed 80+ twice:

• 82 points (20-21)
• 80 points (23-24).

The other two seasons, with Paige mainly riding the rehab bench (sigh), they scored

• 74 points (21-22)
• 76 points (22-23)

Geno's teams have won NCs without breaking the 80 point barrier, so this isn't necessarily a prerequisite. In fact, the team has only broken the 90 point barrier once (98-99), and this was not an NC year. But some of the strongest teams flirted with 90 points, like the last two Stewie teams, 89 points (14-15) and 88 points (15-16). And the NC team featuring Rebecca scored 89.5 points (94-95). In other words, Geno's teams can win it all with defense or offense, and sometimes both.

But if this team is truly special, as I believe, led by one of the most special players in the game right now, I wonder if they can break the 90 point barrier and win an NC. What would it take, and from whom? Paige averaged 22 points/game last season. It may not be unreasonable to think once Azzi returns, that she'll average something similar. And we know Ash can fill it up, as can Kaitlyn. One question mark is Caroline -- if she can truly return, it's not unreasonable to expect 10-12 points from her. The same for Aubrey. The other question marks are Ice Jana and Sarah. Once unleashed on opponents in her more natural position at PF, can Ice get 12 points in 20 mins? And if Jana can stay in games, can she manage 12 points? And finally Sarah, who I think is good for 14 points.

These are all optimistic numbers. But even if no one but Paige scores 20, the rest of an 8 player rotation only needs to average 9 points to get close to 90, which seems conservative to me. And that's not counting the wild cards like Allie and Qadence. I expect any of these players can go off for 20+ in any given game. For one thing, the team shot 36% from 3, and while they lose Nika's 40% effort, they get back Azzi and add the newcomer Allie, who looks to be capable of lighting it up from behind the arc. They averaged 17 attempts/g last season and made 6. Just up those numbers slightly to 20 attempts and 7.5 makes (or a conservative 37.5%) and that could make a significant difference, especially in opening up the paint for Jana and Ice.

We've all mused this summer on the plethora of sharpshooters Geno has on the roster. If those dreams come true, it would look something like this. And I think it would be a fitting signature for Paige to put on her final season, to win an NC and lead the team to a new scoring mark.

 

[reelfan]

Given the firepower of this team, 90 PPG seems within reach.

 

[Next 12]

Good post. My opinion is with the players UCONN has this season, they are capable of scoring 90 points a game multiple times and even 100 points.Even with limited playing time Alie with her 3 pointers, Sarah with her put back rebounds, and the rest of the Newbies can score. This team is TOO talented not to score BIG TIME. Also, our defense will contribute to the scoring as it gives the players more opportunities to score more. This season is going to be a complete joy to watch.What ever happens the team will not surprise me if they go off the charts in scoring. GO FRESHMEN!!!!GO SOPHOMORES!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[ConnMotors]

Didn’t the Bird, Cash, Jones, Taurasi and Williams five start the season with 3 or 4 100 point games?

 

[Zonepress]

Will Paige & Co score 90 points/game this season? If so, where will it come from?

In the Paige era, which really only consists of 2 season so far, the girls have only managed 80+ twice:

• 82 points (20-21)
• 80 points (23-24).

The other two seasons, with Paige mainly riding the rehab bench (sigh), they scored

• 74 points (21-22)
• 76 points (22-23)

Geno's teams have won NCs without breaking the 80 point barrier, so this isn't necessarily a prerequisite. In fact, the team has only broken the 90 point barrier once (98-99), and this was not an NC year. But some of the strongest teams flirted with 90 points, like the last two Stewie teams, 89 points (14-15) and 88 points (15-16). And the NC team featuring Rebecca scored 89.5 points (94-95). In other words, Geno's teams can win it all with defense or offense, and sometimes both.

But if this team is truly special, as I believe, led by one of the most special players in the game right now, I wonder if they can break the 90 point barrier and win an NC. What would it take, and from whom? Paige averaged 22 points/game last season. It may not be unreasonable to think once Azzi returns, that she'll average something similar. And we know Ash can fill it up, as can Kaitlyn. One question mark is Caroline -- if she can truly return, it's not unreasonable to expect 10-12 points from her. The same for Aubrey. The other question marks are Ice Jana and Sarah. Once unleashed on opponents in her more natural position at PF, can Ice get 12 points in 20 mins? And if Jana can stay in games, can she manage 12 points? And finally Sarah, who I think is good for 14 points.

These are all optimistic numbers. But even if no one but Paige scores 20, the rest of an 8 player rotation only needs to average 9 points to get close to 90, which seems conservative to me. And that's not counting the wild cards like Allie and Qadence. I expect any of these players can go off for 20+ in any given game. For one thing, the team shot 36% from 3, and while they lose Nika's 40% effort, they get back Azzi and add the newcomer Allie, who looks to be capable of lighting it up from behind the arc. They averaged 17 attempts/g last season and made 6. Just up those numbers slightly to 20 attempts and 7.5 makes (or a conservative 37.5%) and that could make a significant difference, especially in opening up the paint for Jana and Ice.

We've all mused this summer on the plethora of sharpshooters Geno has on the roster. If those dreams come true, it would look something like this. And I think it would be a fitting signature for Paige to put on her final season, to win an NC and lead the team to a new scoring mark.

Against biggie’s competition only the coach can keep the score under 110 points
The weakness of the Big East this year cannot be overstated
Honestly, the games will be like scrimmages
Not that there’s anything that can be done, but the quality of the competition certainly doesn’t help

 

[PacoSwede]

a 90-point standard? not at uconn.

winning is the goal at uconn, and when that's ensured in a game, the huskies ain't inclined to running up the score ... geno would slow uconn's pace, go easy on the running game, no pressing, etc.

i assume geno would use out-of-hand contests trying new lineups and working on the team's weaknesses.

there may be many 90-point blowouts anyway, of course.

 

[Majic Hands]

There you go! Causing a lot of brain cells to start firing. Perhaps hurting with anticipation.

If my memory serves Geno tends to insert the nonstarters to avoid blowouts as well as build confidence and to develop through real game experience.

What I expected from the nonstarters isn’t what I’ve seen for several years.

Asking myself, what if I took out who I think the starters are and played the nonstarters, what would the scores potentially look like in the big east. What’s the win/loss playing these players only.

KK Arnold, Qadence Samuels,
Allie Ziebell, Sarah Strong, Morgan Cheli, Ayanna Patterson.

Consider the following players as they come back, won’t be starting right out of the gate added to this list.

Caroline Ducharme, Azzi Fudd, Aubrey Griffin

I don’t think coach has ever asked/told his player not to execute to the best of their ability. I think Geno may practice concepts during a game wher the kids need work that will pull down the point totals.

Personally I think we could see several 90+ games.

 

[diggerfoot]

To average in the 90s you have to both shoot a high percentage and have high possessions per game. Even if UConn shoots at a high percentage their half court offense relies on a lot of ball movement = less possessions per game. Getting into the 90s likely means a lot of transition offense, which would depend in large part on their defense.

 

[Bone Dog]

a 90-point standard? not at uconn.

winning is the goal at uconn, and when that's ensured in a game, the huskies ain't inclined to running up the score ... geno would slow uconn's pace, go easy on the running game, no pressing, etc.

No one said anything about a “standard.” But Geno never tells the team to take it easy. That would be tantamount to training them for losing. Yes, winning is the only goal. But this has side effects.

If my memory serves Geno tends to insert the nonstarters to avoid blowouts as well as build confidence and to develop through real game experience.

Exactly. He’ll never tell them not to play hard. But he will empty the bench. The problem isn’t just that the Big East looks too easy. It’s also that the bench looks too good. Playing the bench may be exactly what runs up the score, since they’ll all be looking to make an impression and earn even more minutes. And there’s a lot of scoring punch on the bench this season.

If Paige and Azzi combine for ~40 on any given night, I’m pretty sure the other 12 can come up with the other 50 before the other team knows what hit ‘em.

Didn’t the Bird, Cash, Jones, Taurasi and Williams five start the season with 3 or 4 100 point games?

I suspect several UConn teams have hit the 100 mark a few times. And that’s what we’re probably looking at this season. It’s not the 90 point blowouts that will push the average above 90. It’s the 100 point blowouts.

 

[Alydar]

To average in the 90s you have to both shoot a high percentage and have high possessions per game. Even if UConn shoots at a high percentage their half court offense relies on a lot of ball movement = less possessions per game. Getting into the 90s likely means a lot of transition offense, which would depend in large part on their defense.

That's been true in recent years. Geno has said that a short bench forced him to limit high pressure defense and a running game. I also think he said that they would play more up-tempo this season. Of course he said that last year and then things changed.
UConn usually has about 60-65 fg attempts per game. If they force the pace (and I think they will) that number could go to 75+. I also think that 3pt attempts will also go up.
Geno does turn off his transition game against weak opponents about midway through the third period but the mop up team on the floor in the 4th period would likely be an AP top 15 team with several really good 3pt shooters.

Ninety pts sounds like a lot to me and my first instinct is to take the under but I've never seen as powerful an offense as we may see this season.

 

[Zarathustra]

Good post. My opinion is with the players UCONN has this season, they are capable of scoring 90 points a game multiple times and even 100 points.Even with limited playing time Alie with her 3 pointers, Sarah with her put back rebounds, and the rest of the Newbies can score. This team is TOO talented not to score BIG TIME. Also, our defense will contribute to the scoring as it gives the players more opportunities to score more. This season is going to be a complete joy to watch.What ever happens the team will not surprise me if they go off the charts in scoring. GO FRESHMEN!!!!GO SOPHOMORES!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!

I like the point that extra rebounding will lead to extra points (either with passing out to
the perimeter shooters or immediate putbacks and, hopefully, trips to the FT line). It is
always nice to put points on the board when the clock is not running!

 

[Zarathustra]

That's been true in recent years. Geno has said that a short bench forced him to limit high pressure defense and a running game. I also think he said that they would play more up-tempo this season. Of course he said that last year and then things changed.
UConn usually has about 60-65 fg attempts per game. If they force the pace (and I think they will) that number could go to 75+. I also think that 3pt attempts will also go up.
Geno does turn off his transition game against weak opponents about midway through the third period but the mop up team on the floor in the 4th period would likely be an AP top 15 team with several really good 3pt shooters.

Ninety pts sounds like a lot to me and my first instinct is to take the under but I've never seen as powerful an offense as we may see this season.

How about a pre-season Boneyard contest of our best guess as PPG for the full regular season. I have to go
back to my analytics and rabbits foot before I dive into that prognostication!

 

[and one]

Averaging 90 would be a real stretch. If they can average 85 not a lot of teams will be able stay with them.

 

[packwrap]

Nice post. During our underwomanned injury phase, we have often rolled out offensively challenge teams, or lots of freshman.

This year everyone on the roster, even freshman are scorers.

Not sure if we can avg 90, but 85+ for certain.

 

[Bone Dog]

It's definitely doable. Iowa averaged 91 last season. MD did it in 20-21. Oregon did in 13-14. And UConn came very close, 89.4 in 14-15 and 17-18.

 

[bballnut90]

It's definitely doable. Iowa averaged 91 last season. MD did it in 20-21. Oregon did in 13-14. And UConn came very close, 89.4 in 14-15 and 17-18.

It hasn't happened the past 25 years, I don't see it happening this year. Maryland in 2020-21 and Iowa played helter skelter fast paced offense. Oregon in 2013-14 was coached by Paul Westhead who is infamous for his fast paced, all offense, no defense approach to basketball. The team itself was not good, finishing 16-16 overall and 6-12 in Pac 12 play. UCONN's offense has never operated in that manner and I don't see it changing this year.

 

[cferraro04]

This thread is annually one of my favorite threads because it gets the cerebellum juices flowing. Each year I do a player-by-player average per game and it is always hard to keep this team under 90 points. This is because this exercise when done in a vacuum comes up with a scenario of what would happen in the best of the best worlds. It usually fails to take into consideration the intangibles like;
1. Which players will not be in the line-up due to injury, personal issues, or illness?

2. The flow of the game, if UConn is in a run-away early scenario...how soon does Geno empty his bench?

3. His stars may look for their shots more in a close game but look to get their teammates involved more in games that are not closely contended.

4. It also depends on the other team's strengths and weaknesses, for example, if a team is stronger under the basket then our guards will be counted on to contribute more; if the opposing team is weak under the basket then our guards will push the ball to the paint and our bigs will have great scoring games.

Other intangibles can impact the scoring in a game...but to go into those types of intangibles would only invite speculation and conjecture, so, I will stick to those listed here.

UConn this year has a lot of firepower and in a perfect world getting each of our players sufficient minutes is going to be a very difficult task for Geno this season. Player availability will create scenarios where Azzi is scheduled to come back and must be integrated in a timely and sensible way: Aubrey and Caroline will need similar attention if and when they return to the line-up. Young players may show offensive promise early but then have to become a third, fourth, or fifth option when veteran players return. Then there are slumps that players often go through before they find their offensive rhythm. Starting line-ups will change throughout the season, especially with a team as deep and talented as UConn that has many proven upperclassmen who will be making their way back into the line-up. Finally, there is the unpredictability of the new players and transfers and how fast they will adapt to UConn's offensive and defensive sets. With players like Jana El Alfy, Allie Ziebell, Kaitlyn Chen, Sarah Strong, Morgan Cheli, and Ayanna Patterson trying to find how and where they can contribute to this very talented team it makes predictability almost impossible.

We know for sure that we will have to return from last year: Paige Bueckers, KK Arnold, Ashlynn Shade, Ice Brady, and Qadence Samuels. That is five players out of 14. That makes 9 player variables that must be accounted for and correctly anticipated if one is to come to any kind of prediction as to what this year's version of the Huskies will average per game. It is a wonder that the preseason ratings have UConn as high as they do. I guess even the rating committees are taking into account the huge talent pool and potential firepower that this year's team has.

Okay here we go: To begin with we will certainly miss the 24.5 points per game that Liya and Nika took with them to the WNBA but, we have plenty of firepower on this year's roster.

1. Paige Bueckers - the new, take-no-prisoners mamba mentality that Paige claims she will bring to the table tells me we will see a much more offensively, more selfish version this season. I look for her to bring her previous season's average up from 21.9 points per game to 26 points. I am pretty confident that there will be some 30-plus-point games from Paige.

2. I think Ashlynn Shade is the kind of player that Geno loves. She gives 110 percent every game, makes very few mistakes, shares the ball, and can score in various ways...especially that pretty pull-up jumper that she has. She averaged 11 points per game last season and was third on the team. I expect to see that sophomore leap lead her to increase her scoring average to about 14 points per game.

3. I felt that KK was beginning to find her offensive rhythm in the second half of the season. She averaged 8.9 points per game. I would be happy to see KK lift her average to 11 points. I believe for the very talented KK that this is wholly achievable.

4. Qadence Samuels averaged 12.3 minutes per game and was able to average 5.0 points per game...there were moments when her three-point shot was falling that made you wonder what the up-side for this kid was. With all the players fighting for minutes this season I don't see Qadence getting that many more minutes than last season however, I think she will go to about 15 minutes per game and assuming her productivity per game goes up we may see her average go to about 7.0 points per game.

5. Finally, from our returning players we have Ice Brady. Ice is a big who could develop into quite a threat. She has good footwork around the basket, she has soft hands and she can defend. Ice averaged 17.4 minutes per game and 4.5 points per game. With our guards looking to be more offensive which will take the pressure off our bigs, and with Ice maybe getting closer to 20 minutes per game I think we will see Ice's average also increase to about 7 points per game.

These 5 returning players could collectively average 65 points per game. This is probably more easily achieved in the early part of the season before some of our injured players return to the line-up and some of our new players are worked into the line-up. As the season progresses and other players work themselves into the line-up I expect to see Samuel's, KK's and Ice's averages drop slightly. However, the following nine players will contribute to UConn who has the potential to be viewed as an offensive juggernaut.

6. The return of Azzi Fudd...who doesn't want to see that? The prospect of seeing Azzi and Paige on the floor together is the sort of thing that basketball fans dream of. Azzi and Paige have dreamed of this themselves and for some reason things just haven't worked out that way. But, it certainly looks like it is heading that way this season. Imagine both Azzi and Paige healthy playing together I think that is how magic is created. In her freshman year, Azzi averaged 12.5 points per game in her shortened (15 games) sophomore year she averaged 15.1 points per game. Now after missing most of last year, she will be back in what appears to be early December I expect her to be playing close to what we all expected her to be playing. I would say we would not be surprised to see her averaging 17 points per game.

7. No one knows when Aubrey Griffin will return to the game...but, who could forget her athleticism and her 9.5 points per game. It will not be necessary for her to average 9-10 points per game but who is going to stop a motivated Aubrey who wants to demonstrate that she can play at the next level? If she is back by January...there is no reason to believe that she won't average 7 points per game.

8. Caroline Ducharme to me is the saddest story on this year's team. She was something to watch during her freshmen year when she averaged 9.8 points per game and at times put the team on her back. I am only slightly optimistic that we will see Caroline play major minutes. I think her offensive contributions assuming she sees some limited time on the floor to be only 4 to 5 points per game.

9. Ayanna Patterson is another enigma to me. She did not deliver in a demonstrative way during her freshman outing. Then she got hurt and now she seems to have been set back by yet another injury (shoulder). She averaged 2.2 points per game in her freshman year. She is still totally unproven and it is only fair to attribute to her 2.0 per game should she return and play some minutes during the 2024-24 season.

Now that we have discussed the returning injured players we should add up their collective offensive output keeping in mind that some may return earlier than others and some may not return at all. These 4 players if they return to the line-up could potentially add 30.2 points to the Husky's offensive output per game. As we can see we are already getting into trouble because we are reaching an offensive output that is unrealistic. We are currently at 65 plus 30.2 or 95.2 points per game and we haven't included the expected offensive output from the incoming transfers and freshmen.

10. Kaitlyn Chen will undoubtedly be a starter and she was a shoot-first point guard at Fairfield University. Kaitlyn averaged 15.8 points and 4.9 assists during her senior year at Fairfield U. It is hard to replace Nika's defensive tenacity and her 6.9 points and 6.5 assists but with Kaitlyn, we have come pretty close. Kaitlyn will not have a shortage of scorers to feed the ball to and there will be plenty of opportunities for her to score. We will not need Kaitlyn to score 15 points per game, but giving us 10 points per game is not unrealistic.

11. Jana El Alfy is virtually an unknown. She is a sort of X factor...coaches who have watched her play on the international stage have stated that she was the best player on the floor. What if she brings that same game to UConn? There is no reason to think that she won't she is chomping at the bit to prove that she belongs here. She has size, agility, and the ability to score. All I can say is wow! How many points will she bring to the table per game...5, 10, 15?

12. Sarah Strong is the number one player from her class. Geno says she continues to surprise him in every way, every day. He says that she is the best freshman that has been in Storrs in a long time. This is a double WOW!... She has to play, she has to play meaningful minutes...how do you keep her under double-digit scoring? Her high school opponents couldn't do it. Her international opponents couldn't do it. How many points does she average...?

13. Morgan Cheli is a versatile big guard who averaged double figures in high school and was a highly sought-after recruit. Will they bring her along slowly or will she earn minutes on this very talented team? She is very capable of contributing on the offensive end.

14. Allie Zeibell - is a sharpshooter in the same vein as Azzi Fudd... You can't stop a shooter from scoring. She is another who will contribute to the offensive output of this team...

These last five players are capable of playing and giving many Division One teams a competitive game...it is difficult to see these players going o'fer and not contributing to the 95.2 points per game already predicted in the above 9 players. The question shouldn't be how is this team going to average 90 points but rather it should be how to keep a team like this from scoring 100 points. The drop-off is minimal as you move down the lineup. If people aren't excited about this team they better get on board. Remember we haven't even discussed how if this team rises to Geno expectations defensively...how many points will be created from their defense? Do I sound excited you bet I am?

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Will Paige & Co score 90 points/game this season? If so, where will it come from?

In the Paige era, which really only consists of 2 season so far, the girls have only managed 80+ twice:

• 82 points (20-21)
• 80 points (23-24).

The other two seasons, with Paige mainly riding the rehab bench (sigh), they scored

• 74 points (21-22)
• 76 points (22-23)

Geno's teams have won NCs without breaking the 80 point barrier, so this isn't necessarily a prerequisite. In fact, the team has only broken the 90 point barrier once (98-99), and this was not an NC year. But some of the strongest teams flirted with 90 points, like the last two Stewie teams, 89 points (14-15) and 88 points (15-16). And the NC team featuring Rebecca scored 89.5 points (94-95). In other words, Geno's teams can win it all with defense or offense, and sometimes both.

But if this team is truly special, as I believe, led by one of the most special players in the game right now, I wonder if they can break the 90 point barrier and win an NC. What would it take, and from whom? Paige averaged 22 points/game last season. It may not be unreasonable to think once Azzi returns, that she'll average something similar. And we know Ash can fill it up, as can Kaitlyn. One question mark is Caroline -- if she can truly return, it's not unreasonable to expect 10-12 points from her. The same for Aubrey. The other question marks are Ice Jana and Sarah. Once unleashed on opponents in her more natural position at PF, can Ice get 12 points in 20 mins? And if Jana can stay in games, can she manage 12 points? And finally Sarah, who I think is good for 14 points.

These are all optimistic numbers. But even if no one but Paige scores 20, the rest of an 8 player rotation only needs to average 9 points to get close to 90, which seems conservative to me. And that's not counting the wild cards like Allie and Qadence. I expect any of these players can go off for 20+ in any given game. For one thing, the team shot 36% from 3, and while they lose Nika's 40% effort, they get back Azzi and add the newcomer Allie, who looks to be capable of lighting it up from behind the arc. They averaged 17 attempts/g last season and made 6. Just up those numbers slightly to 20 attempts and 7.5 makes (or a conservative 37.5%) and that could make a significant difference, especially in opening up the paint for Jana and Ice.

We've all mused this summer on the plethora of sharpshooters Geno has on the roster. If those dreams come true, it would look something like this. And I think it would be a fitting signature for Paige to put on her final season, to win an NC and lead the team to a new scoring mark.

Bone Dog- - - Earlier in the summer I wrote I thought UConn was capable of averaging 92 to 94 points per game!
So we are thinking the alike!

 

[Cuango]

Sure! I’d like to see 90 ppg and I think that is clearly possible! However, offense is not my big concern as we are simply loaded with offensive talent. What I’m hoping for is a classic UConn defense! If Geno can get this team playing the type of defense we’ve traditionally seen from his best teams, this team could be practically unbeatable! That, for me will determine just how formidable this team can be! It is difficult to imagine that our rebounding will not be vastly improved. We have size, quickness, and athleticism available that was nowhere to be seen last year so I’m hoping Geno is working them hard on that side of the ball! As Geno himself often says, defense, though often overshadowed by our perennially great offense, is really where all those championships came from!

 

[Bone Dog]

Sure! I’d like to see 90 ppg and I think that is clearly possible! However, offense is not my big concern as we are simply loaded with offensive talent. What I’m hoping for is a classic UConn defense! If Geno can get this team playing the type of defense we’ve traditionally seen from his best teams, this team could be practically unbeatable! That, for me will determine just how formidable this team can be! It is difficult to imagine that our rebounding will not be vastly improved. We have size, quickness, and athleticism available that was nowhere to be seen last year so I’m hoping Geno is working them hard on that side of the ball! As Geno himself often says, defense, though often overshadowed by our perennially great offense, is really where all those championships came from!

I couldn’t agree more. And I share your optimism. My suspicion is that all the offensive firepower will help the defense. Scorers help build the morale of a team, and this helps them buckle down to the less glorious grind of playing suffocating defense. Sure, blocks and steals are flashy, but defense is much more about tirelessly getting to your spots, fighting through screens and grappling for position in the paint. I’m sure all of this is exactly what Geno CD and Jamelle are working on right now. But I’m thinking now of the way Paige’s easy scores, either a quick 3 or more often a midrange jumper, can deflate an opponent and encourage her own teammates. Getting a defensive stop often means making an opponent grind for 20-30 seconds and that effort gets easier to commit to if the payoff is a quick dagger on the other end. That we have several dagger-droppers this season will supercharge the defense as well as the offense.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that we may have several rim protectors in Jana Sarah ice Ayanna Aubrey Caroline Qadence and, of course, Paige. And sticky fingered thieves who love to disrupt the passing lanes. The defensive skill sets are already present, and the likelihood that they will be defensive-minded is encouraging.

The issue, of course, is minutes. Adding up scoring potential is a one sided exercise since competition for playing time will prevent anyone from simply posting an abstract scoring average. If Paige and Azzi score 40+ between them, someone else will have fewer opportunities. And if Geno goes to the bench to avoid running up the score, this may also depress scores. Though given this bench it could just as well have the opposite effect.

I’m eager to see how matchups against USC ND ISU and SC test Geno’s young charges. Each of these opponents will pose unique challenges, either to the posts or to the guards. How will they defend against Hannah Olivia and Sonia, or Juju and Kiki, or Audi and Addy, or the long list of talent Dawn has at her disposal? And if they encounter UCLA in March, how will they deal with the great size of their frontcourt? There’s so much to look forward to this season and a potent combination of offense and defense should be the hallmark of Paige & Co.

Let the games begin!

 

[LwrcasefaN]

It hasn't happened the past 25 years, I don't see it happening this year. Maryland in 2020-21 and Iowa played helter skelter fast paced offense. Oregon in 2013-14 was coached by Paul Westhead who is infamous for his fast paced, all offense, no defense approach to basketball. The team itself was not good, finishing 16-16 overall and 6-12 in Pac 12 play. UCONN's offense has never operated in that manner and I don't see it changing this year.

I would tend to agree. If it happens, I don't think it will be by design. They could steamroll through the BE and the law of averages kicks in, but there's too much parity in the OOC schedule. I've always seen the UCONN brand as adhering to a disciplined half court set and then teaching players when to break off the pattern (read) depending on the defense being applied. Can't really develop that third eye with a constant uptempo style of offense. Don't get me wrong, they have the offensive weapons, mostly from the perimeter and midrange, but to court the 90s, you need consistent offensive rebounding and finishers around the rim. I can't wait to see if that's the case.

 

[DEpup]

We won't get to a 90 pt average especially in BE play because Geno has class. Once they get to a 30+ lead midway through the 3rd he'll put the newbies out there and say take off the press run offense to basically do in game practice. They just won't get the shot attempts to reach 90 most games. If everyone stays healthy I would say an 84-85 ppg average.

 

[oldhusky]

To average in the 90s you have to both shoot a high percentage and have high possessions per game. Even if UConn shoots at a high percentage their half court offense relies on a lot of ball movement = less possessions per game. Getting into the 90s likely means a lot of transition offense, which would depend in large part on their defense.

Diggerfoot has boiled it down to the two key points, high efficiency and high possessions. I will take his points and go further by saying it means a complete and total commitment to a fast pace regardless of which 5 are on the floor. That means fast break with the starters, fast break with the bench, and fast break with the third string when you are up by 30.

It also would probably mean Paige would not be the principle player pushing the ball up the court. For all her greatness her natural inclination is not to push the ball upcourt ala Nika with the dribble, but does look to advance it by pass. Anyway someone else bringing it up quickly is probably better anyway since Paige is the one player you still want to maximize minutes for.

Having said all that, I don't think Geno will make a full on commitment to pushing the pace. I think he will look to do it frequently, but with certain lineup combinations will probably conclude it is not appropriate, or when the game becomes a blowout. I expect our pace to increase significantly, and in terms of points per game, pace has as much importance as efficiency, but I don't expect Uconn to resemble a team like the Loyola Marymount men I think many years back, that pushed the pace every second of the game, perhaps to their detriment.

Geno won't sacrifice efficiency for pace, but with this team he can probably rank pretty high in both. 90 points per game though sounds like a pretty high bar unless pace becomes the primary goal, not just one of them.

 

[JellyBean]

90 points a game is doable with the potential we have on this roster. A lot will just depend on how Coach wants to hold back or go into attack mode with this squad. I just hope that he loosens the reins and let's these players play carefree.

 

[Bone Dog]

Last season, Paige & Co averaged 61.6 fg attempts (41.9 2s and 19.7 3s) and shot at 49.6% clip. Breaking it down, they shot 36.2% from 3 and 55.9% from 2 for an effective field goal rate (eFG%) of 55.4%. That rate yielded 79.7 ppg. What would it take to get 10.3 more points in the same 200 total minutes available? @diggerfoot is right that they either need to up the efficiency or the possessions.

The possession side of the equation entails improving offensive rebounding (as well as steals) and this is hard to predict since it's about effort more than about height. My read of Jana is that her mighty heart is all about effort. But this is just a guess. Ice and Ayanna haven't put up big rebounding numbers yet, which isn't promising, and Ice in particular seemed a bit fumble fingered as rebounder last season. By contrast, Sarah appears to be a forceful rebounder, though this is another guess. We'll need to see some significant improvement in this area from all the posts.

On the efficiency side, Geno seems to have the pieces in place to boost the eFG% a point or two. The sheer number of credible 3 pt shooters means the lane should be clear for the bigs and this points to greater efficiency. To run the transition game also boosts efficiency and it requires either steals or quick outlet passes on long rebounds, which is more the hallmark of rebounding guards than posts. Still, Ice and Sarah have both shown the ability to get a quick outlet pass going in the FIBA games. They just have to show they can do it in D1. And Caroline has displayed a bit of genius as an outlet passer.

Do we have the sort of guards who can get steals, rebound and start the break effectively? I think we have some sneak thieves in KK Ash (plus guard-adjacent Aubrey and Caroline), and Paige, of course. Sarah showed herself to quite the thief in HS, as did Morgan. The girls averaged 10.2 steals and 38.5 rebounds last season. Geno might be able to nudge the rebounds up a little, but I'm not sure how much upside potential there is in steals/game. Also, they lose 6 rebounds/g with the departure of Nika, and she was a major source of transition offense as a result.

An even more fine-grained analysis might look at the impact of assists on eFG%. The team averaged 19.6 assists on 30.6 made field goals. That's some combination of half court and transition baskets, so it isn't clear how much this helps eFG%. Still, we may see some improvement in this already quite high fg/a ratio. But I'd guess that teams with lower assist ratios tend to rely more on post ups and isolation plays on offense, and these do not tend to yield many quick baskets. Also, the rate at which players like Paige, Sarah, Jana, Allie, Ash, Aubrey and Azzi get to the free throw line can have an impact. I mention this group because they are the best free throw shooters, in my estimation.

Finally, in terms of individual eFG%, they lose Aaliyah and Nika who trailed Paige's 60.0% by small margins. That trio was the most efficient one on the team. Who will step up total their places? Ash and Aubrey were the next closest, one because of her formidable midrange game and the other from tradition baskets and putback scores. KK and Qadence were the other two above 50%. Who among the newcomers will be able to boost these numbers? Kaitlyn, Allie, Sarah? And among the returners from injury? Azzi is the main candidate here.

After all that, it looks to me like the ingredients for 90 ppg may be in place, but it will depend on some delicate balance between efficiency and defense. Those extra 10 ppg will likely require 4-5 more made fgs, which likely requires 8 more possessions. This means going from 61.6 to 70 possessions, maybe a little less if we get more FT attempts. What does everyone think: can the team get 8 more possession on average?