538 Probabilities - Oregon over ND?

[HuskyNan]

Apparently so; probabilities show Oregon has a 56%-44% chance of winning. Interesting. But as they say, that's why they play the game.

2018 March Madness Predictions

 

[Centerstream]

I think that there's a 50% chance that the Ducks win and a 50% chance that they lose.

 

[HuskyNan]

It's a statistical analysis thing, not a person setting the probabilities. If you look down on the page, there's a link to the stats where the probabilities were calculated.

I think ND win. Stats can't factor in experience.

 

[wire chief]

Somebody would need to explain to me That Miss St has a Mere 7% chance.

 

[Kaizen]

I cheer for ND. It is not easy to reach today with so many players injured.

 

[Sonny44]

I think they are right about us vs. Loolville though.

 

[Shades]

Somebody would need to explain to me That Miss St has a mere 7% chance.

After you break off 73% for UConn, you only have 27% to divvy up between the 6 other remaining teams.

UConn 73%
Louisville 14%
Mississippi St 7%
Notre Dame 3%
Oregon 2%
South Carolina <1%
UCLA <1%
Oregon St 0%

It's weird how they think Oregon is more likely to win the head-to-head with ND, but assign them lesser odds to win the whole tournament.

 

[Kaizen]

Massey has ND 57% vs. Oregon 47%.

Massey Ratings

 

[RockyMTblue2]

I expect Oregon to win the game, but it should be one heck of a great contest. I'm also tired of the "usual suspects" other than our "usual suspect", Geno a/k/a Keyser Soze:

 

[scubadog]

I'll stick with my prediction of Oregon going to the FF and ending the Irish's season. N.D. has not had to face a team with offensive firepower, size and athleticism.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Because they have Louisville at 60% and Miss St at 35% if they meet in the Semi-Final Game. They also show UCLA at 22% to advance to the Final Four.

I don't think UConn should be at 96% to So Carolina at 4%. IMO should be more like 70 -30 or 65-35

Somebody would need to explain to me That Miss St has a Mere 7% chance.

 

[Centerstream]

I'll stick with my prediction of Oregon going to the FF and ending the Irish's season. N.D. has not had to face a team with offensive firepower, size and athleticism.

Just wondering...don't you think that Louisville has offensive firepower, size and athleticism?
(BTW I am a ND hater.)

 

[DefenseBB]

I'll stick with my prediction of Oregon going to the FF and ending the Irish's season. N.D. has not had to face a team with offensive firepower, size and athleticism.

Umm, they did play a team named UConn...

 

[HuskyNan]

Just wondering...don't you think that Louisville has offensive firepower, size and athleticism?
(BTW I am a ND hater.)

ND lost to Louisville twice this season.

 

[nwhoopfan]

I'm also tired of the "usual suspects" other than our "usual suspect"

The previous two Final 4's have been gratifying then, yes? Especially '16.

 

[Centerstream]

ND lost to Louisville twice this season.

I understand that and was thinking that same point when I was replying to @scubadog's post.

 

[Lambjr]

ND’s short bench hurts them, Oregon wins in a close match. MOV 5.

 

[warbler1055]

I have seen Sabrina Ionescu play. She is way up there with the best. The problem is her teamates. On the other hand Marina Mabrey is having a fantastic tournament for ND. I suspect Oregon will prevail but it will be close.

 

[scubadog]

Umm, they did play a team named UConn...

How did that work out ?

 

[scubadog]

Just wondering...don't you think that Louisville has offensive firepower, size and athleticism?
(BTW I am a ND hater.)

I was talking about the tournament ! And besides , how did the Louisville game turn out ?

 

[Centerstream]

I was talking about the tournament ! And besides , how did the Louisville game turn out ?

We are on the same page here. My point was that ND has faced a team with offensive firepower, size and athleticism, albeit during the regular season, and they lost. You made no mention of "during the tournament" in your post, so....

 

[Orangutan]

We are on the same page here. My point was that ND has faced a team with offensive firepower, size and athleticism, albeit during the regular season, and they lost. You made no mention of "during the tournament" in your post, so....

Oregon lost to Louisville, too. That line of argument cuts both ways. Who has Oregon beaten that compares to ND? UCLA would be the closest thing but they don't have as much "offensive firepower" as ND.

 

[DefenseBB]

How did that work out ?

You posted “N.D. has not had to face” and they did face a team with 6 skilled scorers and athleticism, so just qualify next time by sayin has not faced since UConn, though I also think Louisville is very athletic as well and ND didn’t fare well against them either.

 

[DefenseBB]

Oregon lost to Louisville, too. That line of argument cuts both ways. Who has Oregon beaten that compares to ND? UCLA would be the closest thing but they don't have as much "offensive firepower" as ND.

I think you are correct in this observation. I would add that while ND may not be the most athletic 6 out there (Arike and Jackie are!), Muffet will not let the game get away from her. In fact the only game I have ever seen of ND let get completely away was the 1st Louisville game. This game should be close but I worry about how Shepard and Nelson handle the mobility of the Ducks inside game. It can be done as OSU did it but Gulich is/was more athletic and mobile than these 2. Arike and Mabry need to bring it and how Muffet uses Young on defense could determine the game-does she guard Sabrina?

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Apparently so; probabilities show Oregon has a 56%-44% chance of winning. Interesting. But as they say, that's why they play the game.

2018 March Madness Predictions

Why do they keep lowering UCONN? It was 77% the other day now it is 72%?