538: Baylor blowout win drops UConn's chances to 49%

[Jimbo]

UConn Won By 61 But Their Chances Of A Five-Peat Dropped

"Despite beating the Albany Great Danes 116 to 55 – for UConn’s 108th win in a row — our model showed the Huskies [sic] chances dropping from 52 percent pre-tournament to 49 percent after Round 1.

How is this possible? In a word: Baylor."

"From our model’s perspective, Baylor’s chances increased from 23 percent to 32 percent…."

Sorry, but the notion that Baylor's demolition of poor Texas Southern could actually have this substantial an effect on anything is pretty ridiculous. If I had a statistical model that did this, I'd be seriously questioning the validity of that model right now.

 

[Plebe]

UConn Won By 61 But Their Chances Of A Five-Peat Dropped

"Despite beating the Albany Great Danes 116 to 55 – for UConn’s 108th win in a row — our model showed the Huskies [sic] chances dropping from 52 percent pre-tournament to 49 percent after Round 1.

How is this possible? In a word: Baylor."

"From our model’s perspective, Baylor’s chances increased from 23 percent to 32 percent…."

Sorry, but the notion that Baylor's demolition of poor Texas Southern could actually have this substantial an effect on anything is pretty ridiculous. If I had a statistical model that did this, I'd be seriously questioning the validity of that model right now.

I mean, all of these analytics take margin of victory into account, even if it is an 80-point win against the one of the two worst teams in the tournament. So not really surprising. Every game played between now and the Final Four will continue to alter the exact percentages.

 

[GoingPostal]

Let's see. Baylor beat Winthrop by 108. I wonder how that figures in?

 

[ctfjr]

I mean, all of these analytics take margin of victory into account, even if it is an 80-point win against the one of the two worst teams in the tournament. So not really surprising. Every game played between now and the Final Four will continue to alter the exact percentages.

Especially the game that Baylor loses

 

[Shorty Dee]

Really now. Albany was a better team than Texas Southern. Baylor can feed off that if they want, but they will be in for a rude awakening. Like with Md, Baylor still have teams to play before they can think about the NC.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

If UConn's chances are under 50% it's because the committee will force them to beat 3 of the other 4 best teams in the nation to win the title.

 

[Jimbo]

I mean, all of these analytics take margin of victory into account, even if it is an 80-point win against the one of the two worst teams in the tournament. So not really surprising. Every game played between now and the Final Four will continue to alter the exact percentages.

Oh sure, I understand that the percentages will continue to change. As it happens, UConn is now down to 48%, probably because Maryland just won, but I can't quibble with that. I just have a very hard time believing that Baylor crushing Texas Southern, even by 89 points, should move the needle as much as it did. Baylor's chances of winning the tournament increased from 23% to 32%, which is a pretty huge jump. I can understand seeing that kind of shift if one of the other top contenders gets knocked off, but I don't get it here. And if it's because the model was wowed by the absurd margin of victory, then maybe they should consider some kind of MOV cap. When an opponent is that badly outmatched, it shouldn't matter whether Baylor won by 69 or 79 or 89. At least, I don't think it has any real predictive meaning as far as the probability of Baylor winning this tournament, which is the model's purpose.

 

[HuskyNan]

“Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.”

― Aaron Levenstein

 

[UcMiami]

I also am pretty sure that each round that the three other 1 seeds advance is going to increase the percentage chance they get to the Uconn match-up more than it will increase Uconn's chance, so their overall probability of winning will increase more than Uconn's will regardless of the scores of the games played. The percentage chance in the uconn match-up will not alter much but that overall percentage was based on 6 games and is now based on five.

 

[eebmg]

I also am pretty sure that each round that the three other 1 seeds advance is going to increase the percentage chance they get to the Uconn match-up more than it will increase Uconn's chance, so their overall probability of winning will increase more than Uconn's will regardless of the scores of the games played. The percentage chance in the uconn match-up will not alter much but that overall percentage was based on 6 games and is now based on five.

I imagine the original statistics for the #1 seeds to reach the FF is dominated by the likelihood that they meet the highest possible seeds during each of the 4 steps regionals. So the 4 matchups which were the basis of the original statistics would be 1-16, 1-8, 1-4, 1-2. If all these seeds play out, the probability wont change unless the type of win (more dominating than expected) occurs . If lower seeds upset the regionals, that should push the 1 seed probabilities higher. Not much I imagine.
The actual change of games left (from 6 to 5) by itself does not change probabilities. Only new and independent information different from prior assumptions will do that.

 

[UcMiami]

I imagine the original statistics for the #1 seeds to reach the FF is dominated by the likelihood that they meet the highest possible seeds during each of the 4 steps regionals. So the 4 matchups which were the basis of the original statistics would be 1-16, 1-8, 1-4, 1-2. If all these seeds play out, the probability wont change unless the type of win (more dominating than expected) occurs . If lower seeds upset the regionals, that should push the 1 seed probabilities higher. Not much I imagine.
The actual change of games left (from 6 to 5) by itself does not change probabilities. Only new and independent information different from prior assumptions will do that.

Yes it will - just like the massey expected loses column changes after every game won - the chance of Baylor getting to the elite eight increased because they won that 1-16 match-up regardless of score. They no longer have 0.5% chance of losing that game because they won it. And that will change much more dramatically if OSU loses in one of their games or Quinnipiac were to beat Miami.

 

[BroadwayVa]

Keep in mind that these guys had it at over 70% that Clinton would defeat Trump.

No wonder they missed it----Bill wasn't even running!!
However since Texas ran NC state into the dust--Uconn's percentage to win now stands a 37 percent---taking the quality of Refs into the equation.