538’s Guide to the Women’s tournament

[HuskyNan]

A statistical look

Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Women’s Tournament

 

[CTtoSanDiego]

FiveThirtyEight's bracket predictor is easy and fun to use. Spoiler Alert: They give UConn a 68% chance to make the Final Four and 19% chance to win it all. Personally, I think that is reasonable. ND is the championship favorite at 30% with Baylor second at 28%. MSST is 4th at 10%.
2019 March Madness Predictions

 

[Orangutan]

Interestingly, 538's power ratings and Massey's power ratings give the same order for the top 7:

1. ND
2. Baylor
3. UConn
4. Miss. St.
5. Oregon
6. Louisville
7. Stanford

Note that the Massey power ratings are different from the normal rating where Baylor is #1.

As defined on Massey's website:

• Rating = overall assessment of the team's performance to this point in the season
• Power = estimated team strength going forward (used to make predictions)

 

[MilfordHusky]

The top 4 (ND, Baylor, UConn, and Miss State) have a combined 87% chance of winning it all. Toss in Oregon and Louisville, and it's 97% for 6 teams.

Our CUMULATIVE chances of advancing by round, as of now (probabilities change as games are completed):

Round 1: 99+%

Round 2: 97%

Round 3: 88%

Round 4: 68%

Round 5: 35%

Round 6: 19%

 

[ConnecticutBB]

Just having some fun with my bracket selection. I have the 4 number 2 rates teams going to the FF...
UCONN/STANFORD/Oregon/Iowa.

 

[Moose]

They pick just two first round upsets:
10 Buffalo over 7 Rutgers
10 Auburn over 7 BYU.

And the 8-9 match of S. Datoka and Clemson is apparently a 70-30 slam dunk for S. Dakota.

I'd love to know what it is about these teams Buffalo, Auburn and S. Dakota which makes the predictions much better than their seeds.

 

[Huskee11]

I'd love to know what it is about these teams Buffalo, Auburn and S. Dakota which makes the predictions much better than their seeds.

In Buffalo`s case, they advanced to the Round of Sixteen last year after beating USF and Florida State in Florida. They went to Albany and gave South Carolina a tough game, down by only 5 in the fourth quarter before bowing out. Well coached and unafraid, and they have played a decent schedule. Cierra Dillard is a force, can score against anyone, had 29 against South Carolina last year and 32 against Oregon earlier this year. The Charles Barkley of WCBB.

 

[Moose]

In Buffalo`s case, they advanced to the Round of Sixteen last year after beating USF and Florida State in Florida. They went to Albany and gave South Carolina a tough game, down by only 5 in the fourth quarter before bowing out. Well coached and unafraid, and they have played a decent schedule. Cierra Dillard is a force, can score against anyone, had 29 against South Carolina last year and 32 against Oregon earlier this year. The Charles Barkley of WCBB.

But Quinnipiac isn't picked for an upset...

 

[jaydee602]

This year is so different for UCONN when it comes to odds-makers. They were always favored by 25 to 40 points in their past regional bracket games. This year, they are still favored in all games, but here are the Massey spreads for some of their possible matchups:
Towson:-38
Buffalo:-20
Rutgers:-12
Oregon State:-10
UCLA:-11
Louisville:-4

 

[hussybulldog]

Just having some fun with my bracket selection. I have the 4 number 2 rates teams going to the FF...
UCONN/STANFORD/Oregon/Iowa.

That was my final 4 in my bracket filed on espn as well.

 

[IrishTiger]

They pick just two first round upsets:
10 Buffalo over 7 Rutgers
10 Auburn over 7 BYU.

And the 8-9 match of S. Datoka and Clemson is apparently a 70-30 slam dunk for S. Dakota.

I'd love to know what it is about these teams Buffalo, Auburn and S. Dakota which makes the predictions much better than their seeds.

Betting odds actually have Auburn as the favorite