5 Thoughts while waiting for Loyola

[Gael]

Funny. Last season when UConn destroyed teams with their small lineup, Ash was on the court with Azzi, KK, Sarah and Paige. So the only difference this season is Serah for Paige. Hard to see how Ash could thrive in one lineup and not in another?

Some facts and observations on this discussion about whether Ash should continue to start or come off the bench, which seems in part to revolve around her expected impact as a scorer.

First, I'm not sure when to start the meaningful string of teams that UConn "destroyed" with "their small lineup" last season, but I'm going to omit the Big East string of games and concentrate on the final five games of the NCAA tourney, in which UConn consecutively destroyed South Dakota State, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA and South Carolina by near-historic margins.

Second, Ash started none of those games. The departed Paige and Kaitlyn started all of them, and Ash came off the bench. Therefore, the destructive small lineup often consisted of Sarah, Paige, Azzi, KK and Kaitlyn, and only sometimes Ash.

Third, how destructive a scoring force was Ash was in those five crucial games? In them, Ash scored 3 (in 28 minutes), 12 (28), 0 (13), 0 (13), and 4 (20). Hence, in the five highest pressure, survive-and-advance games of the season, Ash scored 19 points in 102 minutes or 3.8 PPG.

Finally, regardless of what happened last season, Ash has not been "thriving" in the two regular season games so far. K9 arguably has thrived. Allie seems to to have increased her productivity from last season. Many fans reasonably expect Blanca to be a special player. And even Caroline is showing sparks of her old self.

Ash will continue to be a valued player no matter her place in the rotation. Where that place ultimately should be—in the context of the competing alternatives such as K9, Allie, Blanca and Caroline—seems to be a reasonable discussion, and one that should include a balanced view of all of those players' scoring and other skill potentials.

That will require some further lineup experimentation by Geno.

 

[TAK]

Some facts and observations on this discussion about whether Ash should continue to start or come off the bench, which seems in part to revolve around her expected impact as a scorer.

First, I'm not sure when to start the meaningful string of teams that UConn "destroyed" with "their small lineup" last season, but I'm going to omit the Big East string of games and concentrate on the final five games of the NCAA tourney, in which UConn consecutively destroyed South Dakota State, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA and South Carolina by near-historic margins.

Second, Ash started none of those games. The departed Paige and Kaitlyn started all of them, and Ash came off the bench. Therefore, the destructive small lineup often consisted of Sarah, Paige, Azzi, KK and Kaitlyn, and only sometimes Ash.

Third, how destructive a scoring force was Ash was in those five crucial games? In them, Ash scored 3 (in 28 minutes), 12 (28), 0 (13), 0 (13), and 4 (20). Hence, in the five highest pressure, survive-and-advance games of the season, Ash scored 19 points in 102 minutes or 3.8 PPG.

Finally, regardless of what happened last season, Ash has not been "thriving" in the two regular season games so far. K9 arguably has thrived. Allie seems to to have increased her productivity from last season. Many fans reasonably expect Blanca to be a special player. And even Caroline is showing sparks of her old self.

Ash will continue to be a valued player no matter her place in the rotation. Where that place ultimately should be—in the context of the competing alternatives such as K9, Allie, Blanca and Caroline—seems to be a reasonable discussion, and one that should include a balanced view of all of those players' scoring and other skill potentials.

That will require some further lineup experimentation by Geno.

Good analysis. I recall in the sweet Sixteen or Elite 8 game, Ash fell and hit her head on the floor. There was discussion on the Boneyard of lingering effects in the following games.

 

[Next 12]

Yeah, me too. If Ash can knock down 2 or 3 shots it will end the speculation about her starting. But, she's got to knock down the shots.

I've also noticed that Ash was relatively open a couple of times and the ball didn't go to her. I don't know if this is a problem or UConn running some play on the other side of the court. If UConn wasn't trying to run something else, I hope it gets addressed during the film sessions.

I sense Ashlynn misses Paige. To my recollection, it was Paige that often fed Ashlynn the ball for her many 3's.I believed Paige had confidence in Ashlynn's 3's. Ashlynn is too good a player and she will pick up her scoring this tear. I count on her scoring 400+ this tear like her freshman year. GO ASHLYNN!!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!!

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

… concentrate on the final five games of the NCAA tourney, in which UConn consecutively destroyed South Dakota State, Oklahoma, USC, UCLA and South Carolina by near-historic margins.

Second, Ash started none of those games. The departed Paige and Kaitlyn started all of them, and Ash came off the bench. Therefore, the destructive small lineup often consisted of Sarah, Paige, Azzi, KK and Kaitlyn, and only sometimes Ash.

Disagree that Ash wasn’t part of the most impactful small ball (winning time combination) in last year’s title run:

• in the SC finals game, Geno played one of his winning time small ball rotations ( Big3 + Ash + KK) &1 for a 32-9 run starting from 3Q 3:12 (Score: 50-39) to 4Q 4:01 (Score: 82-48).
• in the UCLA final 4 game, Geno played one of his winning time small ball rotations ( Big3 + Ash + KK) for a 8-2 run starting from 3Q 3:02 (Score: 15-11) to 1Qend 4:01 (Score: 23-13).
• in the USC elite 8 game, Geno played his winning time small ball rotations ( Big3 + Ash + KK/ Kaitlyn) for a 10-6 run from 2Q 7:53 (Score: 18-13) to 2Q 3:34 (Score: 28-19). Ash committed her 2nd foul and was replaced by KK in the small line-up which ended the 2Q on a 11-6 run. Aubrey ended up the better replacement for Ash in the 4th Q in small ball.
• In the Oklahoma Sweet 16 game, Geno played his winning time small ball rotation ( Big3 + Ash + Kaitlyn ) for a 13-2 run from 3Q 6:38 (Score: 42-40) to 3Q 2:35 (Score: 55-42).
• The runs above are (among) the most decisive in those games.

Geno hones his players to be “basketball players” that makes a rotation play at its offensive and defensive best. Yes, Ash is streaky. But she is the 4th / 5th scoring option of the most lethal winning time combinations, doing all the things Geno demands of “basketball players.”

As for this year’s very limited sample size, Ash’s rotations (e.g. here) are still among the most productive. And she is playing the 3/4 positions in those rotations which is different from last year. Blanca, Caroline, Allie, Morgan(?) will alter things for the better. Still, Geno trusts Ash. Players don’t usually regress as “basketball players” in Geno’s farm system.

&1 Aubrey subbed for Sarah from 3Q 0:39 to 4Q 9:04.

 

[Ozimoto]

I expect Ash will get "back in the groove" as the season wears on. I have noted that the trajectory of her shot is rather flat. That may be something that needs adjustment.

 

[Cuango]

crazy random thought: blanca in time will show as the clone of Catch, though a bit taller.

not too shabby, but i may not around to say 'i predicted it'.

Don’t sell yourself short! Here’s hoping you’re there when they’re raising #15 & 16 and playing yet another talented young women for us to debate about!

 

[BobbyJ]

I expect Ash will get "back in the groove" as the season wears on. I have noted that the trajectory of her shot is rather flat. That may be something that needs adjustment.

Very surprised that no one has coached her out of that yet and that UConn doesn't have a dedicated shooting coach on staff. Bueckers and Fudd had their own during offseasons and Quinonez may have to do the same.

 

[victor64]

Very surprised that no one has coached her out of that yet and that UConn doesn't have a dedicated shooting coach on staff. Bueckers and Fudd had their own during offseasons and Quinonez may have to do the same.

Include Kelis in that discussion also.

 

[Bone Dog]

Disagree that Ash wasn’t part of the most impactful small ball (winning time combination) in last year’s title run:

• in the SC finals game, Geno played one of his winning time small ball rotations ( Big3 + Ash + KK) &1 for a 32-9 run starting from 3Q 3:12 (Score: 50-39) to 4Q 4:01 (Score: 82-48).
• in the UCLA final 4 game, Geno played one of his winning time small ball rotations ( Big3 + Ash + KK) for a 8-2 run starting from 3Q 3:02 (Score: 15-11) to 1Qend 4:01 (Score: 23-13).
• in the USC elite 8 game, Geno played his winning time small ball rotations ( Big3 + Ash + KK/ Kaitlyn) for a 10-6 run from 2Q 7:53 (Score: 18-13) to 2Q 3:34 (Score: 28-19). Ash committed her 2nd foul and was replaced by KK in the small line-up which ended the 2Q on a 11-6 run. Aubrey ended up the better replacement for Ash in the 4th Q in small ball.
• In the Oklahoma Sweet 16 game, Geno played his winning time small ball rotation ( Big3 + Ash + Kaitlyn ) for a 13-2 run from 3Q 6:38 (Score: 42-40) to 3Q 2:35 (Score: 55-42).
• The runs above are (among) the most decisive in those games.

Geno hones his players to be “basketball players” that makes a rotation play at its offensive and defensive best. Yes, Ash is streaky. But she is the 4th / 5th scoring option of the most lethal winning time combinations, doing all the things Geno demands of “basketball players.”

As for this year’s very limited sample size, Ash’s rotations (e.g. here) are still among the most productive. And she is playing the 3/4 positions in those rotations which is different from last year. Blanca, Caroline, Allie, Morgan(?) will alter things for the better. Still, Geno trusts Ash. Players don’t usually regress as “basketball players” in Geno’s farm system.

&1 Aubrey subbed for Sarah from 3Q 0:39 to 4Q 9:04.

Exactly. People too easily forget that the whole point of rotation analysis is too capture what individual stats miss. For example, a 40% 3 pt shooter draws defensive attention away from other scorers. And a ferocious high energy defender has a disruptive impact even if she doesn’t get credited with all the turnovers, rebounds, blocks, shot clock violations and rushed shots she has a hand in.

 

[FanSince17]

Exactly. People too easily forget that the whole point of rotation analysis is too capture what individual stats miss. For example, a 40% 3 pt shooter draws defensive attention away from other scorers. And a ferocious high energy defender has a disruptive impact even if she doesn’t get credited with all the turnovers, rebounds, blocks, shot clock violations and rushed shots she has a hand in.

Joe Girardi- let me look at the analytics- 14 stats- before I put in that pinch-hitter.
We can also watch the game. Yes, a couple of UConn players can (and will ?) improve to a successful level.

 

[Boreifs]

Funny. Last season when UConn destroyed teams with their small lineup, Ash was on the court with Azzi, KK, Sarah and Paige. So the only difference this season is Serah for Paige. Hard to see how Ash could thrive in one lineup and not in another?

Ash also started her Freshman year.

 

[fomalhaut]

Yes, Ash was great off of the bench but I love starting a game with four players who won a National Championship last year.

I'd prefer five (Jana).

 

[RockyMTblue2]

The notion that there is some special sauce to coming off the bench I find baffling. Maybe one of our statistics geeks can make a case.

 

[Bone Dog]

The notion that there is some special sauce to coming off the bench I find baffling. Maybe one of our statistics geeks can make a case.

Of course there’s a special sauce. Who starts is a huge morale issue, not just for the starters, but for the entire team. It’s how the coach reassures them (or fails to) that competition in practice is fairly measured.

 

[HopJim]

Funny. Last season when UConn destroyed teams with their small lineup, Ash was on the court with Azzi, KK, Sarah and Paige. So the only difference this season is Serah for Paige. Hard to see how Ash could thrive in one lineup and not in another?

Another way of expressing this is we have 2+ years of strong performance by Ash and some want to rate her based on two games?

 

[oldude]

Another way of expressing this is we have 2+ years of strong performance by Ash and some want to rate her based on two games?

The force is strong among the “What have you done for me lately?” crowd……..

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Of course there’s a special sauce. Who starts is a huge morale issue, not just for the starters, but for the entire team. It’s how the coach reassures them (or fails to) that competition in practice is fairly measured.

You may misunderstand my special sauce meaning. I mean that there is something in coming off the bench that makes some players more efficient or play better.

 

[YKCornelius]

Funny. Last season when UConn destroyed teams with their small lineup, Ash was on the court with Azzi, KK, Sarah and Paige. So the only difference this season is Serah for Paige. Hard to see how Ash could thrive in one lineup and not in another?

Oldude, I think you might be straddling two different discussions.

The one discussion is whether the team is ultimately better served with Ashlynn coming off the bench rather than starting. Last year following the loss to Southern Cal right before Christmas, Geno's went with a starting line-up was almost exclusively Sarah, Jana, Kaitlyn, Azzi and Paige (the only two exceptions were when Paige sat out a game and for Senior Night). I think folks would agree that was not a "small ball" starting line-up.

The small ball rotation, that you correctly pointed out Ash was an effective part of, never started any game. Like Ash and KK, it collectively entered the game as a disruption force (my term). It was wonderfully effective, and aesthetically pleasing to boot.

The second discussion is about what is the small ball rotation/line-up this year and does it involve Ashlynn. The current starting line-up (for just two games) has been Sarah, Serah, Ash, Azzi and KK. Very effective so far, but certainly not a "small ball" line-up.

Against Florida State, Geno didn't go with a "small-ball" rotation until midway through the second quarter. Assuming BballF's Chronological Rotations post (separate thread that was also tweaked by Gael) is all-inclusive, for the remainder of the game Geno used five different small ball rotations, only one which involved Ashlynn - for a total of about eight seconds. The remainder of Ash's 20 minutes was with at least two bigs on the court with her.

This was different than the first game against Louisville where, according to BballF, Geno employed three different small-ball rotations among the 19 rotations he used, each of the three involving Ashlynn.

So the take away from the BballF's rotation analysis: in the first game small-ball involved Ashlynn and was very effective, the second game small-ball did not involve Ashlynn and was also very effective.

My position: Ashlynn is effective whether she starts or comes in off the bench. She is also effective whether she is used in small-ball, or in rotations with multiple bigs on the floor. She is a Swiss army knife, and will be integral to the team's success going forward.

Two interesting discussions. What a great position the program is in for us to be having them.

 

[Bone Dog]

On the subject of Ash starting, here’s the latest video from the Back2sports guy. Enjoy.

 

[Gael]

Two and a half hours to go before the game and one thought predominates: Even against this low-rated opponent I'm . . . ineluctably adither.