5 Questions for 2014-15

[bballnut90]

1. First and foremost, can anyone compete with Connecticut? This year, UCONN had one of, if not the most dominant performances ever. 40 wins by 11+ points, 39 by 15+, 32 by 20+....no one put up a legit fight or proved they could hang with Connecticut. Most top teams are projected to be weaker next year while UCONN projects to be about as good next year (lose 2 studs but gain a strong freshman class, a healthy Tuck, healthy KML and a healthy Banks.)

2. Will North Carolina make the jump from good to great? North Carolina had an up and down season and showed they have potential to be great, but can they play as a team, cut down on turnovers and execute in big games? Some games this year they did, some games they didn't. With more experience and potentially Wilson joining the line up, great things will be expected out of Chapel Hill. Eyes will be on the program to see if they can deliver.

3. Can Tennessee get back to its first final four in 7 years? Talent and personnel wise, I think next year will be Tennessee's best shot provided everyone is healthy. Tennessee is loaded with talent, but can they play good team basketball to get over the hump?

4. What happens to Baylor/Stanford/Louisville? These were 3 teams all in contention for a #1 seed this year and made the Final Four in the last 3 seasons. They are all led by strong coaches and graduated exceptional talent. Baylor loses Sims, Stanford Ogwumike, and Louisville loses Taylor/Schimmel/Slaughter. The cupboards aren't completely bare at these programs (Orrange at Stanford/Davis at Baylor/Hammond at Louisville), but none of these programs will have a game changer in their starting lineup, nor do any of these teams have a great recruiting class coming in. Can these teams hang in the top 10 or will they take a backseat next year?

5. Is the Pac-12 the real deal next year? Lots of talent will be on the west coast next season and the Pac-12 title will be a battle rather than a cake walk for Stanford like it has been the last decade or so. Lots of young talent and good coaching. Will the Pac-12 be able to field multiple Sweet 16 teams next year? Should be interesting to see.

 

[UcMiami]

Nice list - I would be temped to replace your #3 with
Is USCar for real - they took the regular season SEC but flopped in tournament play - everybody is back with a year of growth, can they dominate the SEC

because I put more stock in Staley and their talent then in TN coaching/talent.

 

[Vowelguy]

I dunno if I would say UConn will be about as good next year. Bria and Stef are 2 of the greats and will not be easily replaced.
It's hard to compare either way -- the team will be a bunch different given all the personnel changes.

 

[Sakibomb25]

No way will UConn be as good as this past year - at least not yet. Between Hartley and Dolson, those two were rock solid for UConn and did whatever was needed on the court. The two played a big leadership role on the team - who can step up? KML looks like a solid choice, but you'll never know until next year.

The potential is there for the team to be great for all the reasons you stated. But not just yet.

Stanford won't be as good as this past year. I'll be happy with a Sweet Sixteen appearance. But I think Amber Orrange and Lili Thompson will do great things for us. And the Samuelson sisters, if healthy, will be a key part of the offense. Sophomores Erica McCall and Kailee Johnson will also need to step up and fill the void in the paint. While we'll miss Ogwumike, Mikaela Ruef's contributions will not go unnoticed and she'll be tough to replace as well.

 

[Kibitzer]

1. No. Will they be AS good? Probably not. But still dominant over the field. Healthy Tuck is the key.
2. No. Inconsistency will prevail.
3. No. TN needs SC more than SC needs TN.
4. Sorry, others are in the passing lane.
5. The competion is catching up to Stanford. Multiple Sweet 16 teams? I doubt it.

 

[Sonny44]

I think the biggest unknown is us. No one can replace Stef. With all we got coming in, someone or two will be a reasonable replacement for Bria. Kiah should improve, but to what level? Morgan, where are you?

 

[Wbbfan1]

IMHO Kiah is a major factor if this team is to be close to this years team. Kiah has to improve her offense and passing so that she is close to Stef on the offensive end. I think she'll be better then Stef on the defensive end, even though Stef won Defensive Player of the Year awards. I'm thinking if Morgan is healthy she should make up any difference between Stef and Kiah and be a great player coming off the bench.

I have confidence between Saniya, Banks and the incoming recruits, Geno will get the same level of productivity that he got from Bria this year. I actually think he'll get more points then what Bria provided.

 

[j66kicker]

1. Don't underestimate the impact of losing 2 senior studs. Will be a way different team next year

 

[reno tony]

No, no, possibly, 10 -20 ranked teams, yes.

 

[baggerbob]

Everyone said, that Kelly couldn't be replaced, Moriah, and Stewie got better, and will continue to do so. As long as Morgan is healthy next year along with KML, next years team will be better. Having a healthy KML, and Morgan is like having an All-American transfer in, and getting the number 1 High School recruit. Then you have an outstanding class coming in not even counting Kiah, Brianna, and Saniya. This year Geno had 6 players, and 1 of them missed 12 games.

 

[tomcat]

I. No. But they will be less predictable and probably more interesting.
2. I see NC and ND as the two best behind UConn. NC may become excellent in spite of its coaching. I wouldn't bet on it, but it is possible.
3. TN is maybe a final four team.
4. Stanford, Baylor and Louisville drop off in quality. There will be a bunch of good team and maybe three very good teams, but the differences among them are less. Much less likely to see an undefeated season next year by anyone.
5. PAC 12 is still Stanford's to lose, but the overall quality goes up.

 

[doggydaddy]

You don't replace a player like Dolson with another player. But you do replace her production in a variety of ways.

Assuming Tuck is healthy, and I alway do...lol, she and Stokes with more minutes can make up for the rebounding and defense.

Offensively, Geno will change as he alway have when great players leave.

He runs variations of his offense depending on who he has on the roster. It was different with 4 years of Charles at the 5 than the next 4 years with Dolson at the 5.

It will be different again with Stokes at the 5.

Different doesn't mean less effective.

 

[Sonny44]

1. Don't underestimate the impact of losing 2 senior studs. Will be a way different team next year

Different is ok as long as we go undefeated.

 

[bschwartz]

IMHO Kiah is a major factor if this team is to be close to this years team. Kiah has to improve her offense and passing so that she is close to Stef on the offensive end. I think she'll be better then Stef on the defensive end, even though Stef won Defensive Player of the Year awards. I'm thinking if Morgan is healthy she should make up any difference between Stef and Kiah and be a great player coming off the bench.

I agree that Kiah will be a key for next year's team especially in the tourney season. IMHO though on offense she will be a key passer and screener. Don't think she will be needed to score much. Her biggest area of improvement needs to be getting in better position so that fewer basketballs go through her hands like they did last year. As many rebounds as she gets, she loses a lot more because she is either stabbing at the ball or another player gets in a better position and takes the ball right away.

 

[rocky rococo]

#1 & 2 are directly connected. If UNC lands Wilson, they'll likely be real competition for UConn. That might even be true if she goes to SoCar, there could be three outstanding teams. To expect tight, disciplined team ball out of a Sylvia team, that isn't going to happen. But she has a bunch of the kind of players, that if she's there to directly implement her system, will work well within it.

I'd like to be more certain of a healthy Tuck than I am. Repeated injuries over the past few years leaves me very unsettled, the Keirsten Walters and Nicole Wolff memories haven't just evaporated. If Tuck is limited, or there are any other injury/health issues with our few remaining bigs, Geno will have no choice but to play a significant amount of small ball. Brianna and Saniya would have their chances, but if they don't produce quickly they might well get trampled by the four-guard class just recruited.

I think Tennessee is going to have to go "outside the family" in its coaching concern. Kevin Ollies are few and far between in any area of the sport. Until they do, I expect a holding pattern right about where they've been the past couple. Which is problematic, is it "good enough" that you can't fire the "family hire"? (BTW, I expect UConn wbb to have to do likewise when that day comes that Geno steps down. Here's one conjecture: Geno won't leave until UConn is securely in the B1G or ACC.) Of the 4 teams left on Wilson's list, I consider the LVs the least likely choice.

Stanford is always there. Even graduating Ogwumike, I don't doubt Tara will have game plans that wil keep her remaining talent fully competitive. Good coaching takes limited resources, including talent, a long way. Louisville and Baylor also have benefit of that same advantage, though I don't believe to the same degree Stanford does. They may fall briefly out of the Top 10, but Mulkey and Walz are simply too skilled to write off entirely.

I understand UCLA has an outstanding class coming in. I'll be interested to see what comes of it.

 

[msf22b]

1. No: no one can compete. UConn will be as good or better. I'm one who thinks better.
2. No, they'll be good, perhaps good +
3. Certainly not.
4. Baylor especially, Louisville and Stanford will all be decent, top-ten teams, Baylor perhaps top-5
5. Not enough knowledge, but if I had to guess, not multiple sweet 16's.

Discounting Wilson, even Tuck, UConn will be an insanely dominant team next season with spectacular D, an even more unguardable Stewie (Geno), at least two of the new guard/wings prepared to step in and be big-time contributors, not to forget KML, Kiah, and the water-sprite.

If Morgan makes it and Aja enlists, you can take Stewie's 4 National titles and undefeated seasons to the bank. But even without, the same scenario is likely, perhaps with a few hiccups.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Msf22b, glad to see someone agrees with me on #1 and #4. I'll go with good+ on UNC with a shot at being great. You and I differ on TN--I think they have a good shot at F4 (but zero chance at winning it all). I have no view on #5.

On #1, let me start by saying I love Stefanie. She put the team on her back last Tuesday and put in one of the all-time great championship game performances. Personally I though she was MOP.

That said, I don't see a huge drop off between her and Kiah. Offense is important but transition (including rebounding) and defense are really important too. If I had to put numbers on it, I'd say for a center it's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. Stef is way better in terms of offense. But Kiah is better at rebouding and defense. Net/net Stef is better but not by a huge amount. Again, I love Stefanie, but that's how I see it.

 

[doggydaddy]

Msf22b, glad to see someone agrees with me on #1 and #4. I'll go with good+ on UNC with a shot at being great. You and I differ on TN--I think they have a good shot at F4 (but zero chance at winning it all). I have no view on #5.

On #1, let me start by saying I love Stefanie. She put the team on her back last Tuesday and put in one of the all-time great championship game performances. Personally I though she was MOP.

That said, I don't see a huge drop off between her and Kiah. Offense is important but transition (including rebounding) and defense are really important too. If I had to put numbers on it, I'd say for a center it's 1/3, 1/3, 1/3. Stef is way better in terms of offense. But Kiah is better at rebouding and defense. Net/net Stef is better but not by a huge amount. Again, I love Stefanie, but that's how I see it.

The offensive 1/3 is huge. And the difference between being 1st team all American and not.

I believe it's closer to 1/2 offense, 1/4 rebounding and 1/4 defense. But I do agree that Stokes is better in rebounding and defense.

 

[Suebird10fan]

The offensive 1/3 is huge. And the difference between being 1st team all American and not.

I believe it's closer to 1/2 offense, 1/4 rebounding and 1/4 defense. But I do agree that Stokes is better in rebounding and defense.

Why would offense be so much more important than defense?

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

The state of the Duke program is such that there has been no mention of Duke in this thread. That speaks volumes of the Goestenkors era vs. the McCallie era.

 

[Zeeman007]

I can come up with a way to play us next year. Unlike this year when all that was left for our opponents was prayer

If I was Tara preparing for game 2 this is what I might be saying/thinking

"Just concentrate on Stewart and KML. Don't let them breathe a second. Let Stokes roam free. She's never met a shot she likes. As to Jefferson, just stay in front of her. If the NC game showed anthing, it was that her outside game is, to be kind, "erratic ". And the 2G , whoever it is - Chong, Banks, Nurse, et al - have never made an important shot in their Uconn lives. Their bench is a combination of untested frosh and injury prone upperclassmen. "

That's what at least I think she might say. Tara is good at prepping for Uconn if you give her 9 months to prepare for a regular season at Maples. Be all different in March at Tampa when Edmark goes for 24 and we win 91-61

Z

 

[UcMiami]

The state of the Duke program is such that there has been no mention of Duke in this thread. That speaks volumes of the Goestenkors era vs. the McCallie era.

Nice observation and I think also quite short sighted by most posters - Duke would have been much more competitive at the end of the year without such a terrible year of injuries, and given the losses at ND and at leafs my question regarding UNC coaching, I think Duke is certainly in the conversation for ACC champion and the ACC should remain as the strongest conference.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Nice observation and I think also quite short sighted by most posters - Duke would have been much more competitive at the end of the year without such a terrible year of injuries, and given the losses at ND and at leafs my question regarding UNC coaching, I think Duke is certainly in the conversation for ACC champion and the ACC should remain as the strongest conference.

Duke loses more than Notre Dame loses. Duke loses Gray, Jackson, Liston, Peters, and Wells (four of its top six scorers).

And the losses to UConn were before the season-ending injuries to Gray and Jones, while the first two losses to Notre Dame were with Jones.

 

[Buzzyboy]

Everyone said, that Kelly couldn't be replaced, Moriah, and Stewie got better, and will continue to do so. As long as Morgan is healthy next year along with KML, next years team will be better. Having a healthy KML, and Morgan is like having an All-American transfer in, and getting the number 1 High School recruit. Then you have an outstanding class coming in not even counting Kiah, Brianna, and Saniya. This year Geno had 6 players, and 1 of them missed 12 games.

I agree that we will be able to compensate for the loss of Bria but what I have big reservations about is how we compensate for Stef. Geno trusted her implicitly to have the ball in the high post and quarterback what was going on. Taking "reads" and making decisions based on the defensive setup and seeing which of her teammates might have an offensive advantage over her defender, leading to a pass that would end up being a score or foul shots or even a secondary pass that could be a layup for a third UConn player. That second pass would never show up as an assist for Stef but Geno and her teammates know that if they didn't get that outstanding first pass, the next pass for an assist would not have happened. Her stellar defense, including shot blocks, will be missed and make it more difficult for Breanna and Kia to be quite as effective defensively because of Stef's departure. Certainly the Huskies should be terrific but they won't be the same type team as they've been over the last few years.

 

[hoophuskee]

I can come up with a way to play us next year. Unlike this year when all that was left for our opponents was prayer

If I was Tara preparing for game 2 this is what I might be saying/thinking

"Just concentrate on Stewart and KML. Don't let them breathe a second. Let Stokes roam free. She's never met a shot she likes. As to Jefferson, just stay in front of her. If the NC game showed anthing, it was that her outside game is, to be kind, "erratic ". And the 2G , whoever it is - Chong, Banks, Nurse, et al - have never made an important shot in their Uconn lives. Their bench is a combination of untested frosh and injury prone upperclassmen. "

That's what at least I think she might say. Tara is good at prepping for Uconn if you give her 9 months to prepare for a regular season at Maples. Be all different in March at Tampa when Edmark goes for 24 and we win 91-61

Z

The problem with Stanford is it is possible the top 4 players on the court will be Stewie, KML, Mo Jeff and Tuck. MoJeff is much, much more than she appears if one to look at just scoring in terms of a pure scorer. I'd be surpised if MoJeff didn't show more individual scoing on offense.

And Tuck - when healthy - is a beast. Pure beast. You have ot put your best defender on Stewie. That triangle-and-two would have to be awfully lucky.

I'm excited for three seniors next year. I'm hopeful Banks can give us a full year to boot.