4 levels of UCONN's TOUGH 2015 schedule

[Dooley]

5 wins is my dancing in the streets benchmark. Anything above that might solicit some celebratory streaking to the quad next to the gymnasium. Anything below that should put Diaco & Staff on a warm coaching seat.

 

[SubbaBub]

5 wins is my dancing in the streets benchmark. Anything above that might solicit some celebratory streaking to the quad next to the gymnasium. Anything below that should put Diaco & Staff on a warm coaching seat.

The problem with 5 wins is that it isn't really any better than 2 wins to recruits, TV, casual fans, or prospective conferences. It's a non bowl season. The levels of CFB success are:

No bowl game
Bowl game
Conference Championship
BCS Bowl Game
NCG
NC

You can always parse further with win this bowl game, beat your rival, or a better bowl game invite or not being a complete laughingstock.

5 wins would make us not a complete laughingstock. Whoopee. It doesn't mean momentum for next season, you could just as easily stay at 5 or drop to 3 as you could jump to 7.

Long term builds are not what CFB is about. You have 2 maybe 3 productive years from players. Young needs to mix with old, offense needs to mesh with defense. You can have a senior laden team have it's one day in the sun, but if that day is 7 win trip to the Bahamas bowl, is that worth 3 years of sub .500 FB? To me that is the definition of a terrible program (or Rutgers).

Edsall built a brand for 4 years then got a pop with a near BCS bid, regrouped and then got it and underachieving that season in doing so. (Loses to terrible Temple and Louisville, dropping a game to a beatable Michigan team). That's what you want out of a four year cycle.

And forget continuity. Edsall was an outlier in longevity. Coaches need to win with players they didn't recruit. The bulk of Bob's first full recruiting class won't play a meaningful snap if at all until next season. They'll be RSr's, in 2019. No one is waiting that long, not even Bob.

There is enough size, strength, and speed right now to beat most of the teams on this schedule. They need to execute individually and as a unit. Can Bob get them to do that? A good coach would.

 

[mets1090]

5 wins would make us not a complete laughingstock. Whoopee. It doesn't mean momentum for next season, you could just as easily stay at 5 or drop to 3 as you could jump to 7.

People look at a 5 win team and say with a little improvement they could be 8-4. People look at a 2-10 team and say with a little bit of improvement they could be 5-7.

Every year you go 2-10 makes it that much harder to climb back up the ladder of perception. Going 5-7 this year would put us right back at the brink of being relevant again with an 8-4 season the following season.

Can you honestly say that if we go 2-10 this year you would feel just as optimistic about 2016 as you would if we finished 5-7?

 

[Dooley]

The problem with 5 wins is that it isn't really any better than 2 wins to recruits, TV, casual fans, or prospective conferences. It's a non bowl season. The levels of CFB success are:

No bowl game
Bowl game
Conference Championship
BCS Bowl Game
NCG
NC

You can always parse further with win this bowl game, beat your rival, or a better bowl game invite or not being a complete laughingstock.

5 wins would make us not a complete laughingstock. Whoopee. It doesn't mean momentum for next season, you could just as easily stay at 5 or drop to 3 as you could jump to 7.

Long term builds are not what CFB is about. You have 2 maybe 3 productive years from players. Young needs to mix with old, offense needs to mesh with defense. You can have a senior laden team have it's one day in the sun, but if that day is 7 win trip to the Bahamas bowl, is that worth 3 years of sub .500 FB? To me that is the definition of a terrible program (or Rutgers).

Edsall built a brand for 4 years then got a pop with a near BCS bid, regrouped and then got it and underachieving that season in doing so. (Loses to terrible Temple and Louisville, dropping a game to a beatable Michigan team). That's what you want out of a four year cycle.

And forget continuity. Edsall was an outlier in longevity. Coaches need to win with players they didn't recruit. The bulk of Bob's first full recruiting class won't play a meaningful snap if at all until next season. They'll be RSr's, in 2019. No one is waiting that long, not even Bob.

There is enough size, strength, and speed right now to beat most of the teams on this schedule. They need to execute individually and as a unit. Can Bob get them to do that? A good coach would.

Building blocks, my friend. We are coming off 3 and 2 win seasons. A 5 win season would signal a turnaround, get UConn fans excited for 2016, and possibly show the nation that our program has (or will have) a pulse again. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE a bowl game season in 2015 but I'm not sure how realistic an expectation that would be coming off of the last 2 dismal seasons. Just have a 100+% improvement on Win total year to year and put us back in the ballpark for bowl game discussion leading into 2016. Hopefully, the momentum of improving to 5 wins coupled with the arrival of Levenberry, added recruits, settled QB situation will create excitement around the program leading into the 2016 season.

 

[06029]

Building blocks, my friend. We are coming off 3 and 2 win seasons. A 5 win season would signal a turnaround, get UConn fans excited for 2016, and possibly show the nation that our program has (or will have) a pulse again. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE a bowl game season in 2015 but I'm not sure how realistic an expectation that would be coming off of the last 2 dismal seasons. Just have a 100+% improvement on Win total year to year and put us back in the ballpark for bowl game discussion leading into 2016. Hopefully, the momentum of improving to 5 wins coupled with the arrival of Levenberry, added recruits, settled QB situation will create excitement around the program leading into the 2016 season.

Depends on who the 5 wins are against. If the 5 do not include 1 upset of significance, then they mean no more than a 3 or 4 win season. A significant upset is MO, Cinci or BYU. That would get people's attention real fast. 5 wins against Army, Nova, USF, Tulane and 1 other at home, not nearly as much notice.

4 wins is a realistic expectation. 100% improvement over last year. Add in a couple of big scare/close road losses to the 3 above, that would be a solid season.

 

[whaler11]

So Mississippi and UTEP had the same level of success last year.

Interesting way of looking at it.

 

[whaler11]

I always enjoy the assumption that UConn is trying/going to improve but the other teams I guess stay completely stagnant.

I'm not sure how much evidence one would need to understand that UConn hasn't had the horses to win... 5-19 seems a bit more informative to me that just saying they have the size and speed to win.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

I always enjoy the assumption that UConn is trying/going to improve but the other teams I guess stay completely stagnant.

I'm not sure how much evidence one would need to understand that UConn hasn't had the horses to win... 5-19 seems a bit more informative to me that just saying they have the size and speed to win.

This is pretty much where I'm at. To think that we have the talent, size, and speed solely because we're UConn, you would have to divorce yourself from the reality of the last 4 years. We have to recruit better than we have. P won 5 games his first 2 seasons with Edsall's recruits. Pretty obvious to me that our recruiting fell off near the end of Randy's tenure and then took a nose dive under P. To expect us to line up and beat Tulane "just because" is nonsense.

 

[UConnDan97]

I always enjoy the assumption that UConn is trying/going to improve but the other teams I guess stay completely stagnant.

I'm not sure how much evidence one would need to understand that UConn hasn't had the horses to win... 5-19 seems a bit more informative to me that just saying they have the size and speed to win.

When we beat UCF, I know we had the horses to win other games.
When we held Ajayi to a season low rushing yards, I know we had the horses to win other games.
When TJ Weist found a way to win his last three games, I know we had the horses to win other games.

Your first post was spot on. This team has been through 4 OC's, 2 head coaching regimes, and numerous position coach changes. We've leaned on and removed the wildcat multiple times over the last couple of years. We've switched from the 4-3 to the 3-4 and back again. We've changed blocking philosophies multiple times. We've changed work out regimens and strength coaches year after year. We've sat stud seniors on the bench such as Geremy Davis so that we could get rookie WR's more burn on key third downs. And so on, and so on. And ALL of that had an impact on how many games we won.

I've said it before and I'll say it again; wins and losses aren't just a function of talent. It's a function of strategy and implementation of that talent. And I'd argue that the last two regimes have done a horrible job at it...

 

[Confident Carl]

The problem with 5 wins is that it isn't really any better than 2 wins to recruits, TV, casual fans, or prospective conferences. It's a non bowl season. The levels of CFB success are:

No bowl game
Bowl game
Conference Championship
BCS Bowl Game
NCG
NC

You can always parse further with win this bowl game, beat your rival, or a better bowl game invite or not being a complete laughingstock.

5 wins would make us not a complete laughingstock. Whoopee. It doesn't mean momentum for next season, you could just as easily stay at 5 or drop to 3 as you could jump to 7.

Long term builds are not what CFB is about. You have 2 maybe 3 productive years from players. Young needs to mix with old, offense needs to mesh with defense. You can have a senior laden team have it's one day in the sun, but if that day is 7 win trip to the Bahamas bowl, is that worth 3 years of sub .500 FB? To me that is the definition of a terrible program (or Rutgers).

Edsall built a brand for 4 years then got a pop with a near BCS bid, regrouped and then got it and underachieving that season in doing so. (Loses to terrible Temple and Louisville, dropping a game to a beatable Michigan team). That's what you want out of a four year cycle.

And forget continuity. Edsall was an outlier in longevity. Coaches need to win with players they didn't recruit. The bulk of Bob's first full recruiting class won't play a meaningful snap if at all until next season. They'll be RSr's, in 2019. No one is waiting that long, not even Bob.

There is enough size, strength, and speed right now to beat most of the teams on this schedule. They need to execute individually and as a unit. Can Bob get them to do that? A good coach would.

SubbaBub - I am as anxious as anyone to have UCONN win and dominate in football but to be fair, Diaco needs a third year under his belt before we can adequately evaluate his coaching success or failure. Simply put his system and recruits have to jell.

A good example would be Memphis under Justin Fuente who came onto the scene in 2012. That year Memphis finished 4-8 after 3 seasons of 2-10, 1-11 and 2-10 respectively. Fuente's 2013 season ended worse, 3-9. Fuente totally transformed Memphis, a team we smashed in 2013 and that returned the favor last year.

Here is a good article about Memphis's dramatic turnaround!

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...memphis-football-2015-preview-schedule-roster

We all know that Memphis finished the 2014 season at 10-3. That included a close 42-35 loss to UCLA who finished 10-3 and ranked 14th in the country and a 55-48 bowl win over BYU.

Now that Memphis has started to win they are raising ticket prices!

http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2015/03/03/Colleges/Memphis.aspx?

During that same 6 yr period UCONN produced two 8-5 seasons in 09 & 10, two 5-7 in 11 & 12, 3-9 in 2013 and 2-10 under Diaco in his first year, 2014. 2015 should be an improvement however most would agree 2016 is the year that we need to see major improvement. If it comes sooner, that's even better. If not, I am willing to give Bob Diaco and staff another year or two to develop.

 

[Confident Carl]

Building blocks, my friend. We are coming off 3 and 2 win seasons. A 5 win season would signal a turnaround, get UConn fans excited for 2016, and possibly show the nation that our program has (or will have) a pulse again. Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE a bowl game season in 2015 but I'm not sure how realistic an expectation that would be coming off of the last 2 dismal seasons. Just have a 100+% improvement on Win total year to year and put us back in the ballpark for bowl game discussion leading into 2016. Hopefully, the momentum of improving to 5 wins coupled with the arrival of Levenberry, added recruits, settled QB situation will create excitement around the program leading into the 2016 season.

You nailed it. Couldn't have said it better.

 

[whaler11]

Understanding the win/loss record is the ultimate scorecard - I think a qualitative review of this team in year 2 is more valuable than what the record is.

To me they could have an encouraging season at 3-9/4-8 and a disappointing season at 5-7/6-6.

I need to see all 12 games to have an opinion. Telling me the record without the context is useless.

 

[Husky25]

Understanding the win/loss record is the ultimate scorecard - I think a qualitative review of this team in year 2 is more valuable than what the record is.

To me they could have an encouraging season at 3-9/4-8 and a disappointing season at 5-7/6-6.

I need to see all 12 games to have an opinion. Telling me the record without the context is useless.

Normally, I'd agree with you, but given what this team has done over the last 4 seasons, there is no way a 6 win UConn team in 2015-16 is a disappointment.

That said, 3rd year regression may very well be a death knell.

 

[whaler11]

Normally, I'd agree with you, but given what this team has done over the last 4 seasons, there is no way a 6 win UConn team in 2015-16 is a disappointment.

That said, 3rd year regression may very well be a death knell.

Yes I almost added that exact point - it would be pretty unlikely that 6-6 would be a disappointment. It's pretty unlikely 5-7 would be.... it's much more likely 3-9 is encouraging - I was trying to balance the point.

 

[jdb50]

Yes, we were terrible. The line was terrible, the turnovers were terrible. The wide outs were excellent, the defense was very good. The fight and togetherness was missing. If you improved all those holes by 10%, wouldn't that be enough to get past these other bottom feeders?

We may have been on the floor, but climbing two rungs on the ladder isn't asking a whole lot. The entire point of last season was to set up for a turnaround this season. The kind of turnaround that nets coaches contract extensions.

If they beat Mizz or BYU, I'd be stunned. Less so if they beat Cincy, or UCF. No other win would be that much of a surprise as to constitute a shock. 7 or 8 of them would be surprising, but not beating 5 out of the 7 cupcakes and a mild upset. Isn't that why we show up?

Bub, the day we walk into Cinci and win A game I will be STUNNED. The usual order of the day except for the Jasper Howard season is to be frog marched out to the bus as soon as the opening kickoff occurs and thrown on it. This season hinges on Coach V getting us to have some ability to score.

 

[whaler11]

My memory may fail - I had high hopes going to Cincinnati in 2005 at 4-1 off DJ beating Syracuse at Rentschler in rain. There was no TV and had to listen on radio while watching the Bush Push ND/USC game.

 

[SubbaBub]

So Mississippi and UTEP had the same level of success last year.

Interesting way of looking at it.

I didn't give either one a second thought, and neither is going to make any noise this year either so in the broadest sense yes they are about the same. The only thing Ole Miss has going for it is being a middle to bottom team in the SEC. If you are not challenging for the upper levels you aren't going anywhere with any regularity.

Edsall was challenging the best of the Big East. Not a huge accomplishment in the national conversation but it netted us some NFL players, a BCS trip a couple brand name wins, and him a trip to the B1G.

Beating 5 AAC teams wouldn't net us a bus ticket. Winning a bowl game is the mark of a potential uptick. Beating good opponents does too. Winning 5 makes you first of the worst which is nothing to get excited about. Not even sure it's a sign of a pulse.

 

[SubbaBub]

Understanding the win/loss record is the ultimate scorecard - I think a qualitative review of this team in year 2 is more valuable than what the record is.

To me they could have an encouraging season at 3-9/4-8 and a disappointing season at 5-7/6-6.

I need to see all 12 games to have an opinion. Telling me the record without the context is useless.

I agree context will say more than the record except Nova and Army et al are on the schedule. Last year's game against ECU wasn't a building block, neither were Army or SMU had we won them. UCF wasn't either and that was a good win.

 

[whaler11]

I didn't give either one a second thought, and neither is going to make any noise this year either so in the broadest sense yes they are about the same. The only thing Ole Miss has going for it is being a middle to bottom team in the SEC. If you are not challenging for the upper levels you aren't going anywhere with any regularity.

Edsall was challenging the best of the Big East. Not a huge accomplishment in the national conversation but it netted us some NFL players, a BCS trip a couple brand name wins, and him a trip to the B1G.

Beating 5 AAC teams wouldn't net us a bus ticket. Winning a bowl game is the mark of a potential uptick. Beating good opponents does too. Winning 5 makes you first of the worst which is nothing to get excited about. Not even sure it's a sign of a pulse.

Um Mississippi was 7-0 and ranked #3 in the country until the whole team got hurt. But same as UTEP because you didn't personally note them - even the playoff committee did.

 

[SubbaBub]

Um Mississippi was 7-0 and ranked #3 in the country until the whole team got hurt. But same as UTEP because you didn't personally note them - even the playoff committee did.

I remember a lot of people pumping the SEC as the reincarnation of Hannibal's army. Turn out not to be so much. If M went to a major bowl game then that's great for them and nothing to do with UTEP. If they didn't than their 7-0 is the same as the orange 25-0 as it related to program momentum, which is what we are talking about.

The 5 win narrative gets us 8th place in next year's preseason AAC poll and the tag line, "Can Bob Diaco's Huskies break the 5 year bowl drought?" I mean if that doesn't get the celebration started, wooooo! Progress!

 

[freescooter]

I don't see any way 3-9 is in any way could be encouraging. None at all. And as I've said before I think Diacos approach of treating last year like a JV season was a horrible error in judgement. We had a schedule just made to order for a turn around season and to not try and take advantage of that was a bizzare decision by both Diaco and noted football guy Warde Manuel. It set the program back 3 years I terms of recovering some level of public interest. This team almost has to have a Memphis level turn around before it is taken seriously now. And playing freshmen doesn't always lead to long term success. Sometime it does. Sometimes it just leads to discouraged guys.

And this year while the schedule is much tougher it still has a 1aa team Army and some other bad teams such that 3 wins would be essentially no progress.

 

[Confident Carl]

I don't see any way 3-9 is in any way could be encouraging. None at all. And as I've said before I think Diacos approach of treating last year like a JV season was a horrible error in judgement. We had a schedule just made to order for a turn around season and to not try and take advantage of that was a bizzare decision by both Diaco and noted football guy Warde Manuel. It set the program back 3 years I terms of recovering some level of public interest. This team almost has to have a Memphis level turn around before it is taken seriously now. And playing freshmen doesn't always lead to long term success. Sometime it does. Sometimes it just leads to discouraged guys.

Holy smoke! Hard to believe that you really believe what you just wrote!
Babies just can't lift coffee tables, oh wait...

http://footballscoop.com/news/diaco-rebuilding-uconn-like-baby-trying-lift-coffee-table/

 

[freescooter]

Army Stony Brook SMU USF Tulane. That is hardly New England Seattle Baltimoer Green Bay and San Francisco. That was 5 winnable games. Ok you lose 1 but get an upset or 2 along the way and it's a decent season. If we didn't have the talent to beat Army and SMU we really need to reevaluate this whole thing. If you seriously think Diacos approach to the season didn't cost us 3-4 games I don't know what to say. Hell I doubt they even game planned for some of those.

 

[ktuck911]

Holy smoke! Hard to believe that you really believe what you just wrote!
Babies just can't lift coffee tables, oh wait...
View attachment 9912
http://footballscoop.com/news/diaco-rebuilding-uconn-like-baby-trying-lift-coffee-table/

Just noticed that link was from November 2014... Would love to re-visit this with HCBD now... Where are we now?????

 

[freescooter]

Beyond that Diaco took over a team that had won 5,5 then finished up the 2013 season winning 3 straight. While it ain't great both 5 win teams could have, with any luck at all been bowl teams. He was the one who claimed he had nothing. I am a bit skeptical that we lacked that much talent. We had momentum which he elected to squander. We had some excitement. Which he elected to squander remarkably quickly. We will be lucky to have 25000 for the opener this year and if they lose that a crowd if it can be called that of under 20000 could be the norm

 

[Redding Husky]

We'll be 2-10 if nothing changes from last year. I'm expecting improvement, so I'll go with 4-8.

Then (maybe) 6-6 in 2016.

 

[Husky25]

5 wins is my dancing in the streets benchmark. Anything above that might solicit some celebratory streaking to the quad next to the gymnasium. Anything below that should put Diaco & Staff on a warm coaching seat.

Not that I wanted to see it, but when did you streak across the quad, Dooley?

I bumped this thread to remind people what the general idea of a "successful" season would be. Many said 4-5 wins. Some used the thread as a way to bash the Coach yet again and some of us (not many) thought a bowl game was in reach in year 2. Personally, I have my opinions on how I think red-shirts should be used, but I will not question Diaco's strategy going forward. I believe more than ever that if he didn't give so many freshmen real game experience in his mulligan year, UConn would not be looking at the opportunity for 7 wins come Saturday night.

 

[Waquoit]

No one in this thread had us bowling. That means everyone has to admit Diaco has done a great job this year.

 

[Dooley]

Not that I wanted to see it, but when did you streak across the quad, Dooley?

Instead of the quad, I streaked on the field after the win. I don't think anybody saw anything because, hey, it was cold out!

 

[Dooley]

I am completely thrilled to go bowling this year, in year 2. Diaco had some interesting quotes in his presser saying that he expected to go bowling in year 2 and felt that way during offseason S&C. I was ecstatic after win 5 and was optimistic that we could beat Houston at home coming off bye (and their QB banged up). The rebuild has been accelerated by this year's bowl game for sure. The extra practices will definitely help the younger guys hit the ground running come spring and summer ball.

I'll be interested to see what people's expectations are for 2016 when the time is right. We still have to get through an offseason - stay healthy, keep grades up, keep guys out of trouble, etc. But the expectations should be, for the most part, encouraging:

- NY6 bowl
- AAC championship
- AAC championship game
- Contend for AAC
- Undefeated or 1 loss OOC play
- 6/7 wins and "minor" bowl game
- regression