4 levels of UCONN's TOUGH 2015 schedule

[Confident Carl]

Thought this broke down the schedule pretty good and would create some good feedback on the yard entering July. Knowing I am on the glass half full side of the yard I have done my best to be objective. I tried hard to be optimistically realistic about the upcoming season. Realistically (with a little optimism) my prediction is 4-8. My totally off the charts optimism is 8-4 and obviously we would all probably take a .500 6-6 season right now. Here is my take on the attached which breaks UCONN's season down into 4 tiers.

Level 1 - "Pack the Rent"
Level 2 - "Redemption"
Level 3 - "We're Double Digit underdogs this is what we have new uniforms for"
Level 4 - "Do you believe in miracles?"

My thoughts in blue and red.

Level/Tier 1 “Pack The Rent”Optimistic 3-0 - Realistic 2-1

Sept. 3 vs. Villanova – UConn’s first game of the season is the first on this list but this FCS opponent is not who you want to open the season against. ‘Nova made a quarterfinals appearance in the 2014 FCS Tournament and is hungry to prove themselves against UConn. If UConn struggles the same way they handled FCS Stony Brook, this could be a long first game at the Rent.

Sept. 12 vs. Army – Football games in Yankee Stadium are cool and all, but UConn will host their second game of the year against Army and seek revenge on last season’s 35-21 loss that was much closer than the final score indicated. This is winnable territory for UConn in their second straight home game.

Oct. 17 vs. USF – The only conference game in the first tier of opponents, USF comes to UConn in October and this middle of the season game could be a toss-up for either team and the loser of this matchup could occupy the bottom of the AAC standings by the end of this one.


Level/Tier 2 “Redemption” Optimistic 3-0 - Realistic 1-2

Sept. 26 vs. Navy – The newcomer in the conference has the pieces of a good football team and could play the wild-card role of the conference with an impressive year from Keenan Reynolds. The Husky defense will have a different look at the triple-option and it will be the first time the teams have met since 2006 when Navy beat UConn 41-17.

Oct. 30 vs. ECU – UConn came into last year’s matchup with ECU as 28-point underdogs and had the game tied going into the fourth quarter. It was somewhat of a turning point in the Pirate’s season as they went on to lose four of their next six games, but ECU still found a way to survive. Now without Shane Carden, the Pirates won’t take the Huskies lightly when they come to East Hartford in the fall.

Nov. 7 at Tulane – In what is probably UConn’s final opportunity at a regular season win in the AAC, a trip to New Orleans is scheduled for the third to last game of the year against Tulane who had similar issues in 2014 with quarterbacks. Sure, the Huskies should have pulled out a win against them last year, but now they will have to go to the Big Easy with no intentions of going to Bourbon Street. That’s tough enough.


Level/Tier 3 “We’re double-digit underdogs, this is what we have new uniforms for”
Optimistic 2-1 - Realistic 1-2
Oct. 10 at UCF – Win/Win situation here as far as the rivalry goes. UConn wins and gets the last laugh or UCF wins big and they did it because of the rivalry. This is what we’ve been waiting for.

Nov. 21 vs. Houston – Tom Herman takes over the head coaching job at Houston and suddenly the Cougars are a contender in the AAC with a young talented quarterback in Greg Ward Jr. This will be the first meeting all-time between UConn and Houston and likely won’t go in the home team’s favor.

Nov. 28 at Temple – The finale of the season comes against Temple led by their strong experienced defense. It’s hard to predict scores in this tier of games, but UConn would be stealing a win from any of these three teams, especially in their final two games of the year.


Level/Tier 4 “Do you believe in miracles?”Optimistic 0-3 - Realistic 0-3

Sept. 19 at Missouri – Scheduling the reigning SEC East Champ Missouri is a big part of the reason UConn has one of the toughest schedules in the country and in the American. All three games in this tier require a bit of travel for the Huskies and their first road test of the year will be their toughest game of the year.

Oct. 2 at BYU – The second road test will be the farthest the Huskies travel all year. Provo, UT will be where BYU and Taysom Hill runs and throws against (aka all over) UConn. The dual-threat quarterback and his running back, Jamaal Willams, are both recovering from season-ending injuries but will be back to full force for this date.

Oct. 24 at Cincinnati – The Bearcats return 13 starters and will not risk losing to UConn just to have a surprise rivalry pop up between the schools next year. Gunner Kiel will have to put up big numbers this year to launch Cinci into the AAC title discussion. I like him to pad his season stats against the Huskies.

http://aacfootballfever.com/uncategorized/the-4-levels-of-uconns-2015-schedule.html

 

[pepband99]

Realistic 4-8, optimistic 8-4? Way to go out on a limb

It's probably true-ish, though, although the idea that anyone sees 3-0 from this team in the Navy/ECU/@Tulane stretch seems far fetched to an extreme.

 

[Confident Carl]

Realistic 4-8, optimistic 8-4? Way to go out on a limb

It's probably true-ish, though, although the idea that anyone sees 3-0 from this team in the Navy/ECU/@Tulane stretch seems far fetched to an extreme.

That was my ultra optimistic view. In reality I said they would go 1-2. I am simply saying that it is possible for them to beat all three of those teams. UCONN was leading into the 4th quarter against ECU away in Greenville. Certainly we could beat Tulane and an upset of Navy at home is possible. Again, be reminded that is my optimistic view.

Be reminded that these are not game stretches. Rather the season is tiered by degree of difficulty and not chronological order.

 

[mikedog10]

I think 4 wins is the optimistic-realist prediction, and I would be happy to see that much improvement in the team. I fully expect to see that improvement.

If this team wins 6 or more games, I'm about ready to impeach Dannel in favor of Bobby.

 

[RedSoloCup]

If they are 'in' the game when we play the higher level teams, and are showing effort, I can live with a loss there. They are not moral victories at that point, but they are building moments.

Really I want them into every game this year. I will go all optimistic and say 4-5 wins too... Love the team but they are still laying foundations...

I have to laugh at the "risk of an other rivalry" quote... you got a like for that one.

 

[J187Money]

Carl - very reasoned analysis. Thanks for the read.

 

[ktuck911]

If we don't see 4 wins (at least) it won't be a season that makes you think we'd do much better in year 3 of the Diaco regime... my opinion... again it'll come down to OL and QB play... I saw one (only one) game last season where our offense showed any kind of sustenance.. that's when we beat UCF.. So, we need to see that kind of play against teams like Nova, Tulane (payback IMO), Army (another payback game), and 1, maybe 2 more teams (hopefully 3): ECU (we showed we can hang with them with a veteran QB, and their D can get scored on, even by us, as weak as our offense was), and Houston (they're pretty much in the same boat as us, starting over with a new HC).. a couple of wildcards, that could potentially put us into bowl contention that I see are: Temple and USF... We've always had tough games with both, except for last year..

We win what we should win (Nova, Tulane, Army), then semi-surprise with a W vs. ECU and Houston (imo, not so much of a surprise), and a W vs. either USF or Temple .. or, dare I say it, both, we "shock the world", and are bowl bound... hopefully to Orlando...

there's my glass half full assessment... believe it or not, it does makes sense... potentially.

 

[BlueandOG]

Carl, you are a man after my own heart. Screw the doom and gloom! We will be bowling in December, nothing less.

 

[UConnDan97]

If you take a 3-game package such as your Tier 4 package and say that the optimistic view is "0-3", then you forfeit the right to be called "Confident" Carl.

You have to be more confident than that, Carl. The optimistic view is 15-0...

 

[Stainmaster]

You have to be more confident than that, Carl. The only view is 15-0...

FIFY

 

[SubbaBub]

Tulane, USF, Army, Nova are must wins.
Temple is a flip, but if we are to believe in magic Bob, this should be a win.

The rest are uphill some upmountain. I'd like to steal one, maybe ECU or Navy/UCF. If we blow one of the first 5, then we'll need to steal a second.

I think BYU, Mizz, Cincy, Hou are the big asks for a rebuilding team.

6-6, bowl game. If we aren't sitting at 5 on the final day with a chance, I will be disappointed.

 

[mets1090]

When you have 4 games that are virtual locks for losses on the schedule, winning 6 of the remaining 8 games is a tall order for a team coming off a 2-10 season. I'd be delightfully surprised if they did, but I think 4 wins is more likely.

Of course if Shirreffs comes in and is an average FBS QB that goes out the window and we should be going bowling.

 

[J187Money]

Tulane, USF, Army, Nova are must wins. Temple is a flip, but if we are to believe in magic Bob, this should be a win. The rest are uphill some upmountain. I'd like to steal one, maybe ECU or Navy/UCF. If we blow one of the first 5, then we'll need to steal a second. I think BYU, Mizz, Cincy, Hou are the big asks for a rebuilding team. 6-6, bowl game. If we aren't sitting at 5 on the final day with a chance, I will be disappointed.

Agreed. As bad as the first 2 PP years were, all 12 games mattered. Last two years? Not so much.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Here's a hint:

When you have no cupcakes on the schedule, you ARE the cupcake on the schedule.

Until proven otherwise.

 

[Husky25]

7-5 is the ceiling for this team, in my purview (which is admittedly limited)...

 

[ConnHuskBask]

As I said going into last season, I just want to see consistent improvement. I really thought the UCF win and playing ECU tough were signs we were headed in that direction until the bottom fell out again.

Really comes down Shireffs. If he can be a bottom 25% FBS and literally not the worst QB in FBS (Boyle per QB rating) maybe we snag 4 or 5 wins.

 

[SubbaBub]

Here's a hint:

When you have no cupcakes on the schedule, you ARE the cupcake on the schedule.

Until proven otherwise.

We have 5-7 cupcakes on the schedule. The 07, 09 and 2010 teams would roll all 7, and give the other 5 a good battle, winning a majority. Why doesn't anyone else see how bad these teams are and how little it would take to beat these teams we should have beaten last year as horribly as we played at times.

 

[SubbaBub]

7-5 is the ceiling for this team, in my purview (which is admittedly limited)...

I agree that 7 is the ceiling and somewhat unrealistic to predict winning against good teams. The 5 historic tomato cans are another story.

We may blow one because we are not good, but any more means zero progress has been made once you account for variance. Usf, Tulane, Army, and SMU should have been wins that would have been 6 with just a little less suckitude. I expect at minimum a moderately less amount of suckitude this season. Good can wait until 2016.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

We have 5-7 cupcakes on the schedule. The 07, 09 and 2010 teams would roll all 7, and give the other 5 a good battle, winning a majority. Why doesn't anyone else see how bad these teams are and how little it would take to beat these teams we should have beaten last year as horribly as we played at times.

It's not that we don't see how bad these teams are, but we see a bad team when we look in the mirror.

There is not close to the talent on the current team that there was in 09 or 10. The #uptick was the biggest fallacy ever created.

 

[SubbaBub]

It's not that we don't see how bad these teams are, but we see a bad team when we look in the mirror.

There is not close to the talent on the current team that there was in 09 or 10. The #uptick was the biggest fallacy ever created.

Yes, we were terrible. The line was terrible, the turnovers were terrible. The wide outs were excellent, the defense was very good. The fight and togetherness was missing. If you improved all those holes by 10%, wouldn't that be enough to get past these other bottom feeders?

We may have been on the floor, but climbing two rungs on the ladder isn't asking a whole lot. The entire point of last season was to set up for a turnaround this season. The kind of turnaround that nets coaches contract extensions.

If they beat Mizz or BYU, I'd be stunned. Less so if they beat Cincy, or UCF. No other win would be that much of a surprise as to constitute a shock. 7 or 8 of them would be surprising, but not beating 5 out of the 7 cupcakes and a mild upset. Isn't that why we show up?

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

It's not that we don't see how bad these teams are, but we see a bad team when we look in the mirror.

There is not close to the talent on the current team that there was in 09 or 10. The #uptick was the biggest fallacy ever created.

Probably. But if we accept that recruits generally take 2-3 years to really gain the muscle/speed to compete at the next level, you don't really know if PP got us the recruits we needed. For all we know Cochran was going to lead the heck out of this team. And on top of it, we've had some incredibly bad luck with players like him.

I imagine you're probably right, but I don't know that we can say definitively at this point since we're just now seeing his recruits get onto the starting team, no? When I look at our roster I see a lot of PP-era recruits, which makes sense. Not many folks can come in and make an impact as a true freshman (Diaco's recruits).

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

Probably. But if we accept that recruits generally take 2-3 years to really gain the muscle/speed to compete at the next level, you don't really know if PP got us the recruits we needed. For all we know Cochran was going to lead the heck out of this team. And on top of it, we've had some incredibly bad luck with players like him.

I imagine you're probably right, but I don't know that we can say definitively at this point since we're just now seeing his recruits get onto the starting team, no? When I look at our roster I see a lot of PP-era recruits, which makes sense. Not many folks can come in and make an impact as a true freshman (Diaco's recruits).

Not sure I follow. I wasn't making any judgements on Diaco's recruiting. I do think we have more than enough data to know that P's recruiting was lackluster to say the least. The #uptick was more something that HFD and his cult followers touted every time we landed a verbal commit.

 

[EdgewoodNHV]

Not sure I follow. I wasn't making any judgements on Diaco's recruiting. I do think we have more than enough data to know that P's recruiting was lackluster to say the least. The #uptick was more something that HFD and his cult followers touted every time we landed a verbal commit.

I was talking about P's recruiting. I mean, for instance, if our O-line comes together at all, they'll be P's recruits, right? Same with D-Line, linebackers, etc.?

 

[whaler11]

P and staff coached them so poorly it's hard to say. Is this 4 offensive coordinators in 4 years too? It's hard to keep track.

 

[UConnDan97]

P and staff coached them so poorly it's hard to say. Is this 4 offensive coordinators in 4 years too? It's hard to keep track.

This is exactly right.

I still believe that PP brought in a fair amount of talent, so people can feel free to label me part of the HFD cult. The issues is how they've been coached. And if I'm being fair, that poor coaching has spanned both the previous and the current staffs.

I'm really hoping...desperately hoping...that Diaco and company have learned from their mistakes from last year and come out of the tunnel ready to win in game 1, not game 5. No "preseason" games. No developing of young players to set the future at the cost of the present. This is the year that you show what you're made of as a coaching staff. Because I really do believe that we have more than a fair amount of talent in that locker room...