I think there's better than a 50-50 chance that all four make to the Final Four, but certainly less than 90 %. I think the most likely to lose in the round of 8 is UCLA, least likely UConn. I think the only way USCe loses is if Iowa can consistently get the ball to Heiden, which is a tall task especially with Okot in the game. I think the 3 seeds in both UCLA and Texas's brackets would be tough, although I'm not sure UCLA would have an easier time with LSU or Duke. I do think Louisville matches up better with Texas than Michigan. Vandy-UConn is really a wonderful possibility; Vandy plays a similar game to UConn, but they're also reminiscent of a Beg East team, and UConn's had a lot of practice defending that style this year.