Our path to the tourney is very simple. Beat UCF tomorrow, and win our first AAC tourney game which will be Cincy/Tulsa giving another quality top 50 RPI. The 4/5 is an NCAA tourney eliminator for the loser. A victory would give us 4 top 50 RPI (2 of which are top 25) wins, 7 top 100 wins (possibly 8 if Georgetown climbs back in from 106), eliminates another bubble contender, and leaves us sitting at 22-10 (12-7). Pretty much dead on for one of the last 4 in spots assuming we lose the next game.
This pathway only fails if there are 1 or 2 bid stealers or one of the teams below us (Gonzaga, Ohio State, LSU, etc) makes a deep run. The bubble is the softest it's been in years. A trip to the AAC final locks up a bid.
Regardless, it feels good to have destiny in our hands. If we lose the 4/5 we don't deserve a bid. Looking forward to seeing how the team responds with their backs to the wall in that 4/5 game.