3/12 Metrics

[BFieldHusky]

NET: 30 (up 2 spots)
KenPom: 34 (up 2 spots)
BPI: 17

22:9; 14-6 in the BE
Road/Neutral: 8-7

Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 7-3
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 6-0

 

[RuffRuff]

NET: 30 (up 2 spots)
KenPom: 34 (up 2 spots)
BPI: 17

22:9; 14-6 in the BE
Road/Neutral: 8-7

Quad 1: 5-5
Quad 2: 7-3
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 6-0

Given it’s all relative what could be helpful is kicking out the same metrics for the 4-5 teams around us per BM, who we are now generally competing with for the last 7th.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

 

[UConnTrumbull]

I’ll be honest. I don’t get the St. Mary’s hype. Consistently projected a 5 seed. Best win is Gonzaga twice and Nebraska? Good team but 5 seed good? I’ll take the 12/5 underdog.

 

[RuffRuff]

I’ll be honest. I don’t get the St. Mary’s hype. Consistently projected a 5 seed. Best win is Gonzaga twice and Nebraska? Good team but 5 seed good? I’ll take the 12/5 underdog.

Some of these teams know how to bamboozle the computers - StM is one of them. I'm with you 100% on them. They are basketball's version of:

 

[ColchVEGAS]

I watched the Gonzaga/St. Mary's game last night, first time I have seen a full St. Mary's game all year and left confused how they are ranked so highly. A typical St. Mary's squad, they are so methodical. They are on upset watch for me depending on who they draw in the field.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Some of these teams know how to bamboozle the computers - StM is one of them. I'm with you 100% on them. They are basketball's version of:

If there are a lot of SEC teams with clunky records that are highly rated off quality losses and beating each other. If they get slaughtered in the first round or two, the models will need a full rebuild.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

While the NET rankings might look like there is a huge gap between teams, I suspect the underlying ratings are pretty close between 30 and 40 as you get into the fat part of the curve.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Given it’s all relative what could be helpful is kicking out the same metrics for the 4-5 teams around us per BM, who we are now generally competing with for the last 7th.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2025

UConn:
NET: 30; KenPom: 34; BPI: 17
22:9; 14-6 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-7
Quad 1: 5-5; Quad 2: 7-3; Quad 3: 4-1 Quad 4: 6-0

Missouri
NET: 20; KenPom: 20; BPI: 30
21-10; 10-8 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 3-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 3-0; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 8-0

BYU:
NET: 26; KenPom 24; BPI: 24
23-8; 14-6 in B12; Road/Neutral 8-6
Quad 1: 6-6; Quad 2: 7-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Marquette:
NET: 25; KenPom: 26; BPI: 19
22-9; 13-7 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-6
Quad 1: 5-8; Quad 2: 7-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Kansas:
NET: 18; KenPom: 21; BPI: 12
20-11; 11-9 in B12; Road/Neutal: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 6-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 3-0

Memphis:
NET: 49: KenPom: 48; BPI: 42
26-5; 16-2 in American; Road/Neutral: 12-3
Quad 1: 6-1; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 9-3; Quad 4: 6-0

Miss St.
NET: 34; KenPom: 32; BPI: 37
20-11; 8-10 in SEC; Road/Neutral: 10-6
Quad 1: 7-9; Quad 2: 5-2; Quad 3: 2-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Gonzaga:
NET: 8; KenPom: 9; BPI: 9
25-8; 14-4 in WCC; Road/Neutral: 12-6
Quad 1: 4-6; Quad 2: 6-2; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 10-0

Creighton:
NET: 38; KenPom: 36; BPI: 25
22-9; 15-5 in BE; Road/Neutral: 7-6
Quad 1: 5-6; Quad 2: 6-3; Quad 3: 6-0; Quad 4: 5-0

New Mexico:
NET: 41; KenPom: 41; BPI: 47
24-6; 17-3 in MW: Road/Neutral: 9-5
Quad 1: 3-3; Quad 2: 8-1; Quad 3: 3-2; Quad 4: 10-0

Georgia:
NET: 31; KenPom: 33; BPI: 38
20-11; 8-10 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 5-8
Quad 1: 4-10; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 3-0; Quad 4: 8-0

West Virginia:
NET: 47; KenPom: 51; BPI: 48
19-12; 10-10 in B12: Road/Neutral: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 4-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 5-0

 

[tzznandrew]

If there are a lot of SEC teams with clunky records that are highly rated off quality losses and beating each other. If they get slaughtered in the first round or two, the models will need a full rebuild.

Many of them are highly rated because they beat good teams OOC, even if they took some lumps in conference.

Almost all the teams in this batch have better wins than our best win, which I assume is at Marquette (unless you're going solely by metrics, in which case Gonzaga is a Top 10 win).

There are definitely some shaky SEC teams, though. I'm not at all afraid of Missouri, Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Miss State.

Missouri: wins over Alabama, Florida, Kansas
Ole Miss: wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama
A&M: win over Purdue
Georgia: wins over St. John's, Kentucky, Florida
MSU: win over Memphis

The whole conference killed it in OOC, so I don't know how you account for that other than rewarding them with a bunch of bids, even if I think some of them, like the above five, are fairly mid and probably won't go too far.

 

[UCann]

UConn:
NET: 30; KenPom: 34; BPI: 17
22:9; 14-6 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-7
Quad 1: 5-5; Quad 2: 7-3; Quad 3: 4-1 Quad 4: 6-0

Missouri
NET: 20; KenPom: 20; BPI: 30
21-10; 10-8 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 3-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 3-0; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 8-0

BYU:
NET: 26; KenPom 24; BPI: 24
23-8; 14-6 in B12; Road/Neutral 8-6
Quad 1: 6-6; Quad 2: 7-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Marquette:
NET: 25; KenPom: 26; BPI: 19
22-9; 13-7 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-6
Quad 1: 5-8; Quad 2: 7-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Kansas:
NET: 18; KenPom: 21; BPI: 12
20-11; 11-9 in B12; Road/Neutal: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 6-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 3-0

Memphis:
NET: 49: KenPom: 48; BPI: 42
26-5; 16-2 in American; Road/Neutral: 12-3
Quad 1: 6-1; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 9-3; Quad 4: 6-0

Miss St.
NET: 34; KenPom: 32; BPI: 37
20-11; 8-10 in SEC; Road/Neutral: 10-6
Quad 1: 7-9; Quad 2: 5-2; Quad 3: 2-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Gonzaga:
NET: 8; KenPom: 9; BPI: 9
25-8; 14-4 in WCC; Road/Neutral: 12-6
Quad 1: 4-6; Quad 2: 6-2; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 10-0

Creighton:
NET: 38; KenPom: 36; BPI: 25
22-9; 15-5 in BE; Road/Neutral: 7-6
Quad 1: 5-6; Quad 2: 6-3; Quad 3: 6-0; Quad 4: 5-0

New Mexico:
NET: 41; KenPom: 41; BPI: 47
24-6; 17-3 in MW: Road/Neutral: 9-5
Quad 1: 3-3; Quad 2: 8-1; Quad 3: 3-2; Quad 4: 10-0

Georgia:
NET: 31; KenPom: 33; BPI: 38
20-11; 8-10 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 5-8
Quad 1: 4-10; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 3-0; Quad 4: 8-0

West Virginia:
NET: 47; KenPom: 51; BPI: 48
19-12; 10-10 in B12: Road/Neutral: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 4-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Win a couple games in the BET and we’re a 7 seed lock it in. We will get a bump to protect the 1 seeds from having to play us in the 2nd round. It will have zero to do about preference for UConn or the BE vs not wanting to screw over the 1 seeds from the other conferences. No one will want to play us.

 

[Get a Job]

Am I the only one who thinks that the committee will not give one second of thought to "protecting" the 1-seeds from UConn?

 

[RuffRuff]

Am I the only one who thinks that the committee will not give one second of thought to "protecting" the 1-seeds from UConn?

I don't think they'll give that .5 seconds of thought. They'll slot to resumes. What I'm most interested in is how far off the computers will they go - how much qualitative human touch will they put on this versus how much will they just stick to what the algorithms are telling them.

 

[NJHusky]

UConn:
NET: 30; KenPom: 34; BPI: 17
22:9; 14-6 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-7
Quad 1: 5-5; Quad 2: 7-3; Quad 3: 4-1 Quad 4: 6-0

Missouri
NET: 20; KenPom: 20; BPI: 30
21-10; 10-8 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 3-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 3-0; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 8-0

BYU:
NET: 26; KenPom 24; BPI: 24
23-8; 14-6 in B12; Road/Neutral 8-6
Quad 1: 6-6; Quad 2: 7-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Marquette:
NET: 25; KenPom: 26; BPI: 19
22-9; 13-7 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-6
Quad 1: 5-8; Quad 2: 7-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Kansas:
NET: 18; KenPom: 21; BPI: 12
20-11; 11-9 in B12; Road/Neutal: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 6-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 3-0

Memphis:
NET: 49: KenPom: 48; BPI: 42
26-5; 16-2 in American; Road/Neutral: 12-3
Quad 1: 6-1; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 9-3; Quad 4: 6-0

Miss St.
NET: 34; KenPom: 32; BPI: 37
20-11; 8-10 in SEC; Road/Neutral: 10-6
Quad 1: 7-9; Quad 2: 5-2; Quad 3: 2-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Gonzaga:
NET: 8; KenPom: 9; BPI: 9
25-8; 14-4 in WCC; Road/Neutral: 12-6
Quad 1: 4-6; Quad 2: 6-2; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 10-0

Creighton:
NET: 38; KenPom: 36; BPI: 25
22-9; 15-5 in BE; Road/Neutral: 7-6
Quad 1: 5-6; Quad 2: 6-3; Quad 3: 6-0; Quad 4: 5-0

New Mexico:
NET: 41; KenPom: 41; BPI: 47
24-6; 17-3 in MW: Road/Neutral: 9-5
Quad 1: 3-3; Quad 2: 8-1; Quad 3: 3-2; Quad 4: 10-0

Georgia:
NET: 31; KenPom: 33; BPI: 38
20-11; 8-10 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 5-8
Quad 1: 4-10; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 3-0; Quad 4: 8-0

West Virginia:
NET: 47; KenPom: 51; BPI: 48
19-12; 10-10 in B12: Road/Neutral: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 4-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 5-0

If those are the teams bucking for the 7 seed, there are 4 teams better than us, unfortunately

 

[JohnFSilver]

UConn:
NET: 30; KenPom: 34; BPI: 17
22:9; 14-6 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-7
Quad 1: 5-5; Quad 2: 7-3; Quad 3: 4-1 Quad 4: 6-0

Missouri
NET: 20; KenPom: 20; BPI: 30
21-10; 10-8 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 3-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 3-0; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 8-0

BYU:
NET: 26; KenPom 24; BPI: 24
23-8; 14-6 in B12; Road/Neutral 8-6
Quad 1: 6-6; Quad 2: 7-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Marquette:
NET: 25; KenPom: 26; BPI: 19
22-9; 13-7 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-6
Quad 1: 5-8; Quad 2: 7-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Kansas:
NET: 18; KenPom: 21; BPI: 12
20-11; 11-9 in B12; Road/Neutal: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 6-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 3-0

Memphis:
NET: 49: KenPom: 48; BPI: 42
26-5; 16-2 in American; Road/Neutral: 12-3
Quad 1: 6-1; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 9-3; Quad 4: 6-0

Miss St.
NET: 34; KenPom: 32; BPI: 37
20-11; 8-10 in SEC; Road/Neutral: 10-6
Quad 1: 7-9; Quad 2: 5-2; Quad 3: 2-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Gonzaga:
NET: 8; KenPom: 9; BPI: 9
25-8; 14-4 in WCC; Road/Neutral: 12-6
Quad 1: 4-6; Quad 2: 6-2; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 10-0

Creighton:
NET: 38; KenPom: 36; BPI: 25
22-9; 15-5 in BE; Road/Neutral: 7-6
Quad 1: 5-6; Quad 2: 6-3; Quad 3: 6-0; Quad 4: 5-0

New Mexico:
NET: 41; KenPom: 41; BPI: 47
24-6; 17-3 in MW: Road/Neutral: 9-5
Quad 1: 3-3; Quad 2: 8-1; Quad 3: 3-2; Quad 4: 10-0

Georgia:
NET: 31; KenPom: 33; BPI: 38
20-11; 8-10 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 5-8
Quad 1: 4-10; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 3-0; Quad 4: 8-0

West Virginia:
NET: 47; KenPom: 51; BPI: 48
19-12; 10-10 in B12: Road/Neutral: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 4-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 5-0

I am sorry. If teams are under .500 in quad 1 and 2 I don’t think they should be ahead of teams that are above .500 and have around same number of games.

Quad 1-2 - UConn is 12-8, Missouri is 9-10.

Missouri gets credit for losing? That makes no sense.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Also. How is Gonzaga top 10?

 

[Dutch Boyd]

Win a couple games in the BET and we’re a 7 seed lock it in. We will get a bump to protect the 1 seeds from having to play us in the 2nd round. It will have zero to do about preference for UConn or the BE vs not wanting to screw over the 1 seeds from the other conferences. No one will want to play us.

They said this in Full Ride on XM this morning. If we were an 8 it would the strongest 8 ever.

 

[Palatine]

Win the BET. That is the goal.

 

[JohnFSilver]

If those are the teams bucking for the 7 seed, there are 4 teams better than us, unfortunately

Which teams better than UConn?

 

[firstnline]

Win the BET. That is the goal.

Agreed. Come back to Storrs with the hardware.

 

[ctbro1999]

Rooting for Colorado to keep winning to make our loss to them less bad!

 

[businesslawyer]

Many of them are highly rated because they beat good teams OOC, even if they took some lumps in conference.

Almost all the teams in this batch have better wins than our best win, which I assume is at Marquette (unless you're going solely by metrics, in which case Gonzaga is a Top 10 win).

There are definitely some shaky SEC teams, though. I'm not at all afraid of Missouri, Ole Miss, A&M, Georgia, Miss State.

Missouri: wins over Alabama, Florida, Kansas
Ole Miss: wins over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama
A&M: win over Purdue
Georgia: wins over St. John's, Kentucky, Florida
MSU: win over Memphis

The whole conference killed it in OOC, so I don't know how you account for that other than rewarding them with a bunch of bids, even if I think some of them, like the above five, are fairly mid and probably won't go too far.

This was the Big EAst in 2011. It did so well OOC early in the season that a team that finished NINTH in the regular season could win the tourney and end up as a 4 seed in the NCAAs. But that was us, so no one complained.

The only way to rate conferences is based on OOC play. Because it was months before the NCAAs it's not nearly as good a predictive tool as if teams had their OOC games spread out throughout the year, but it's still all computers have to go on.

 

[businesslawyer]

UConn:
NET: 30; KenPom: 34; BPI: 17
22:9; 14-6 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-7
Quad 1: 5-5; Quad 2: 7-3; Quad 3: 4-1 Quad 4: 6-0

Missouri
NET: 20; KenPom: 20; BPI: 30
21-10; 10-8 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 3-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 3-0; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 8-0

BYU:
NET: 26; KenPom 24; BPI: 24
23-8; 14-6 in B12; Road/Neutral 8-6
Quad 1: 6-6; Quad 2: 7-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Marquette:
NET: 25; KenPom: 26; BPI: 19
22-9; 13-7 in the BE; Road/Neutral: 8-6
Quad 1: 5-8; Quad 2: 7-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Kansas:
NET: 18; KenPom: 21; BPI: 12
20-11; 11-9 in B12; Road/Neutal: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 6-1; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 3-0

Memphis:
NET: 49: KenPom: 48; BPI: 42
26-5; 16-2 in American; Road/Neutral: 12-3
Quad 1: 6-1; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 9-3; Quad 4: 6-0

Miss St.
NET: 34; KenPom: 32; BPI: 37
20-11; 8-10 in SEC; Road/Neutral: 10-6
Quad 1: 7-9; Quad 2: 5-2; Quad 3: 2-0; Quad 4: 6-0

Gonzaga:
NET: 8; KenPom: 9; BPI: 9
25-8; 14-4 in WCC; Road/Neutral: 12-6
Quad 1: 4-6; Quad 2: 6-2; Quad 3: 5-0; Quad 4: 10-0

Creighton:
NET: 38; KenPom: 36; BPI: 25
22-9; 15-5 in BE; Road/Neutral: 7-6
Quad 1: 5-6; Quad 2: 6-3; Quad 3: 6-0; Quad 4: 5-0

New Mexico:
NET: 41; KenPom: 41; BPI: 47
24-6; 17-3 in MW: Road/Neutral: 9-5
Quad 1: 3-3; Quad 2: 8-1; Quad 3: 3-2; Quad 4: 10-0

Georgia:
NET: 31; KenPom: 33; BPI: 38
20-11; 8-10 in SEC: Road/Neutral: 5-8
Quad 1: 4-10; Quad 2: 5-1; Quad 3: 3-0; Quad 4: 8-0

West Virginia:
NET: 47; KenPom: 51; BPI: 48
19-12; 10-10 in B12: Road/Neutral: 6-8
Quad 1: 6-10; Quad 2: 4-2; Quad 3: 4-0; Quad 4: 5-0

Georgia and Mizzou, with their poor Quad 1 records, are the ones in that group that I can see being seeded well below their computer rankings.

 

[NJHusky]

I am sorry. If teams are under .500 in quad 1 and 2 I don’t think they should be ahead of teams that are above .500 and have around same number of games.

Quad 1-2 - UConn is 12-8, Missouri is 9-10.

Missouri gets credit for losing? That makes no sense.

What do y think our record would be in SEC this year??

UConn q3 loss isn’t helping

 

[NJHusky]

Georgia and Mizzou, with their poor Quad 1 records, are the ones in that group that I can see being seeded well below their computer rankings.

Georgia lost to 1 unranked team….Arkansas

Mizzou beat Ku ( when 1), Ala and Fla.

And they are 9 & 6 in SEC.

loosing to top 5 schools in conf shouldn’t ding them much imo.

 

[tzznandrew]

This was the Big EAst in 2011. It did so well OOC early in the season that a team that finished NINTH in the regular season could win the tourney and end up as a 4 seed in the NCAAs. But that was us, so no one complained.

3-seed.

But, yeah, I agree with you. There were 11 teams that year, and they deserved all 11 even if they all didn't make deep runs. Some of that happened because UConn played Cincy and Marquette played Syracuse. And Pitt, much as I hate them, got screwed against Butler.

They had I think 9 teams in 2009, 3 1-seeds, and 4 E8 teams. Very deep league then, just not quite as good OOC.