3/10 Games to Watch for Seeding

[tzznandrew]

A win only gave us a Q2 victory because of the slide PC has been on. But all that's left is ranked Q1 games. Here's what would be best for our seeding:

BET
Creighton over Xavier

ACC
Duke over Miami (gross)
Clemson over Virginia

B12
Iowa State over Kansas
TCU over Texas

B10
Maryland over Indiana

P12
Oregon over UCLA
Arizona State over Arizona

SEC
Mizzou over Tennessee

 

[Tenspro2002]

B12
Iowa State over Kansas
TCU over Texas

No can do. I have a little money on Kansas or Texas to win the Big XII Tournament.

That said, I'm not sure it's realistic for Texas to drop all the way to a 4 seed anyway, so that one is moot. ISU helps the resume a bit if they advance.

The big one today is Tennessee. If they lose, and especially if we win, there is no argument for them to be ahead of us.

 

[jake14mw]

No can do. I have a little money on Kansas or Texas to win the Big XII Tournament.

That said, I'm not sure it's realistic for Texas to drop all the way to a 4 seed anyway, so that one is moot. ISU helps the resume a bit if they advance.

The big one today is Tennessee. If they lose, and especially if we win, there is no argument for them to be ahead of us.

You don't think we're safely ahead of Tennessee already? I hope we are, but maybe not.

 

[tzznandrew]

You don't think we're safely ahead of Tennessee already? I hope we are, but maybe not.

Bracket Matrix still shows that, on average, more bracketologists than not have them ahead of us. It's close though.

Tennesse's average is 3.41
UConn's is 3.56

Frankly I think we should be solidly ahead of them, Baylor (whose average is 2.06) and Kansas State (3.01).

 

[Rocktheworld]

A win only gave us a Q2 victory because of the slide PC has been on. But all that's left is ranked Q1 games. Here's what would be best for our seeding:

BET
Creighton over Xavier

ACC
Duke over Miami (gross)
Clemson over Virginia

B12
Iowa State over Kansas
TCU over Texas

B10
Maryland over Indiana

P12
Oregon over UCLA
Arizona State over Arizona

SEC
Mizzou over Tennessee

So just better teams losing lol

 

[tzznandrew]

So just better teams losing lol

That's the phase we're at in the conference tournaments. We're competing with UVA/Miami/Xavier/Indiana/Arizona/Tennessee. Probably not Texas. So we want them to lose. We want Oregon and Iowa State to win because we beat them.

 

[Rocktheworld]

That's the phase we're at in the conference tournaments. We're competing with UVA/Miami/Xavier/Indiana/Arizona/Tennessee. Probably not Texas. So we want them to lose. We want Oregon and Iowa State to win because we beat them.

Oh don’t get me wrong, I totally get it. It’s much simpler when you’re a top 12 team trying to inch your way higher

 

[auror]

Nova at 74. Would be really nice to keep them in. Dayton still playing (tomorrow), but thankfully not many more teams after them still playing.

 

[REB1094]

I love how insane UConn fans are. You posted this as 6am, and the responses started at 7:20

Oregon and Iowa St wins would be huge. Hope they both can win their conferences, no matter how unlikely

 

[Tenspro2002]

You don't think we're safely ahead of Tennessee already? I hope we are, but maybe not.

"Safely"? No. Lunardi still has them as a 3 and us as a 4.

 

[Storrs South]

I would say Texas over TCU is better. Unrealistic as other's have said to get past Texas at this point and don't want to give committee reason to think TCU should leapfrog us.

Then again if UConn takes care of business tonight it's a moot point.

 

[auror]

I would say Texas over TCU is better. Unrealistic as other's have said to get past Texas at this point and don't want to give committee reason to think TCU should leapfrog us.

Then again if UConn takes care of business tonight it's a moot point.

Especially when TCU has the "missing Mike Miles for a bunch of losses" thing, which could be a reason someone on the committee argues they're really good if they go on a B12 tournament run.

 

[auror]

Tennessee - UConn is quite close. Tennessee's computer numbers got sliiiightly worse last night, so we tied them in Predict and passed them in Resume.

	UConn	Tennessee
Record	25-7	23-9
NET	7	3
Predict Rank Ave	4.66	4.66
Resume Rank Ave	14.5	15
SoS (non conf in para)	43 (86)	32 (47)
Q1 (Q1A in para)	7-5 (4-3)	7-6 (3-4)
Q2	6-1	3-3
Q1+2	13-6	10-9
Q3+Q4 losses	1	0
Away+Neutral	10-5	9-7

I think where before I had them slightly ahead, I think I now have us slightly ahead. The 3 games better in Q1+Q2 and the even metrics have overcome the SoS and bad loss.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Palm's update this morning:

Doing this in S-Curve order:

2-Marquette
2-Gonzaga
2-Texas
2-UCLA

3-Kansas State
3-Arizona
3-UConn
3-Baylor

4-Tennessee
4-Virginia
4-Indiana
4-Xavier

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Doing this in S-Curve order:

2-Marquette
2-Gonzaga
2-Texas
2-UCLA

Am I reading this right, Marquette is the #5 overall seed?? Surprising but great to see BE get that kind of respect. Also highlights the opportunity UConn has in the semifinal

 

[auror]

Palm's update this morning:

Doing this in S-Curve order:

2-Marquette
2-Gonzaga
2-Texas
2-UCLA

3-Kansas State
3-Arizona
3-UConn
3-Baylor

4-Tennessee
4-Virginia
4-Indiana
4-Xavier

Well let's do UConn - Baylor then.

	UConn	Baylor
Record	25-7	22-10
NET	7	14
Predict Rank Ave	4.66	12.66
Resume Rank Ave	14.5	7.5
SoS (non conf in para)	43 (86)	2 (42)
Q1 (Q1A in para)	7-5 (4-3)	11-10 (6-6)
Q2	6-1	4-0
Q1+2	13-6	15-10
Q3+Q4 losses	1	0
Away+Neutral	10-5	8-7

Clear strength of schedule, resume ave, and bad loss advantage to them. But we edge them in away from home, Q1+Q2 win%, and predicive.

This is the kind of comparison that comes down to what the committee values. The top 16 reveal showed the committee favored the B12, so we might be behind right now.

But they're done playing and beating Marquette I think would put us solidly past them with 8-5 (5-3) Q1(A) and closing the gap on the resume metrics.

 

[king conn]

Palm's update this morning:

Doing this in S-Curve order:

2-Marquette
2-Gonzaga
2-Texas
2-UCLA

3-Kansas State
3-Arizona
3-UConn
3-Baylor

4-Tennessee
4-Virginia
4-Indiana
4-Xavier

I'm sorry, how the heck is Marquette a borderline one seed? If that's true, if we beat them tonight we should be a 2 seed.

And LoL at Kansas St. How many losses do they need to drop to a 4 seed, 15? They are ranked in the 20's on Ken Pom for crying out loud At this rate they would make the tournament with 20 losses.

 

[OkaForPrez]

Bracket Matrix still shows that, on average, more bracketologists than not have them ahead of us. It's close though.

Tennesse's average is 3.41
UConn's is 3.56

Frankly I think we should be solidly ahead of them, Baylor (whose average is 2.06) and Kansas State (3.01).

So many of the brackets on bracket matrix just peg to lunardi and palm at the top that the gaggle of brackets just reflect them. Lunardi still having us as a 4 and Tennessee as a 3 is a head scratcher.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I'm sorry, how the heck is Marquette a borderline one seed? If that's true, if we beat them tonight we should be a 2 seed.

And LoL at Kansas St. How many losses do they need to drop to a 4 seed, 15? They are ranked in the 20's on Ken Pom for crying out loud At this rate they would make the tournament with 20 losses.

Well they had 8 until losing to TCU yesterday. Look at Palm's 4 seeds: Tennessee has 9. IU has 10. Xavier has 8 and probably 9 after tonight. Virginia has 6, but the ACC is weak. Still could see them moving up to a #3.

UConn has 7. Honestly, all these teams are closer to each other than we like to pretend.

 

[Dibbie]

We have a good case for 2 seed if we win tonight. Can swap with Marquette. Who knows what committee thinks about Gonzaga. They were pretty pedestrian before they started their mid-major schedule. Not right for them to be a 2

 

[huskyfever34]

So many of the brackets on bracket matrix just peg to lunardi and palm at the top that the gaggle of brackets just reflect them. Lunardi still having us as a 4 and Tennessee as a 3 is a head scratcher.

Looks like Lunardi changed it this morning we are a 3 seed in the East (still in Albany) with Baylor the 2. Would like that draw

 

[Tenspro2002]

Palm's update this morning:

Doing this in S-Curve order:

2-Marquette
2-Gonzaga
2-Texas
2-UCLA

3-Kansas State
3-Arizona
3-UConn
3-Baylor

4-Tennessee
4-Virginia
4-Indiana
4-Xavier

Wow, that is massive respect to Marquette and Gonzaga. I thought Arizona would be comfortably on the #2 line. Baylor and KSU being out means we have opportunity to pass them as well. Hopefully Tennessee is indeed behind us. If we lose, any of those #4 seeds could pass us.

 

[UConnRock]

Looks like Lunardi changed it this morning we are a 3 seed in the East (still in Albany) with Baylor the 2. Would like that draw

Moved UConn ahead of K-State, kept Tennessee at 3.

 

[Uconn77Duke74]

i would love to see what the point spread would be if we matched up with any of the 1-15 AP.

 

[tzznandrew]

I'm sorry, how the heck is Marquette a borderline one seed? If that's true, if we beat them tonight we should be a 2 seed.

And LoL at Kansas St. How many losses do they need to drop to a 4 seed, 15? They are ranked in the 20's on Ken Pom for crying out loud At this rate they would make the tournament with 20 losses.

I don't think that's what Palm actually has. He's just listing them E-M-S-W. He has Marquette slotted as the 2 in Purdue's region, Kansas State as the 3, and Tennessee as the 4. And they're all listed first—so that can't actually be an S-Curve. It it were listed in S-Curve order, Purdue would be Top Overall, and Marquette should have been listed last among 2-seeds. etc.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Moved UConn ahead of K-State, kept Tennessee at 3.

Ah, great, I hoped that KSU losing would help us. We'll find out if the Committee agrees.

By the way, this is why it was better for Marquette to win. It should be hard for the Committee to penalize us for losing to a top 10 team. Losing to St. John's would be devastating.

Going forward, Tennessee could still gain, but KSU is done.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Either Baylor gets a 2 seed or Bracketmatrix never needs to get used again. That website, along with every single "bracketologist" that has Baylor as a 2 seed has put all their chips on that call.

 

[UCLJ0211]

Looks like Lunardi changed it this morning we are a 3 seed in the East (still in Albany) with Baylor the 2. Would like that draw

Has Kentucky, Duke and Michigan State in our bracket. That’s a good omen!

 

[auror]

Let's do Arizona also.

	UConn	Arizona
Record	25-7	26-6
NET	7	11
Predict Rank Ave	4.66	10
Resume Rank Ave	14.5	10.5
SoS (non conf in para)	43 (86)	54 (56)
Q1 (Q1A in para)	7-5 (4-3)	8-2 (4-1)
Q2	6-1	6-4
Q1+2	13-6	14-6
Q3+Q4 losses	1	0
Away+Neutral	10-5	11-4

Pretty clearly behind them. Only real thing we have on them is predictive stuff and small SoS. We'd need them to lose ASAP and then maybe win BET to pass them.

 

[auror]

Lastly for today, UConn - Kansas St.

	UConn	Kansas St
Record	25-7	23-9
NET	7	23
Predict Rank Ave	4.66	26
Resume Rank Ave	14.5	11.5
SoS (non conf in para)	43 (86)	16 (312)
Q1 (Q1A in para)	7-5 (4-3)	9-8 (4-5)
Q2	6-1	4-1
Q1+2	13-6	13-9
Q3+Q4 losses	1	0
Away+Neutral	10-5	7-8

I don't even think this is particularly close. Our resume is better. We should be above them.

They're out. If we lose tonight, the profiles will be closer and they could get it with B12 bias. If we win, we're clearly ahead of them.