25/26 College Football Playoff Sim

[Purple Stein]

That time of year again where I start pointlessly simming the CFP! This year I'm drawing brackets from CBS Sports and using MyGameSim to run the simulations. Here are the results of Week 6, the first of 10 or 11 sims.

Round 1
5. Indiana 56 12. Virginia 34
8. Georgia 34 9. Georgia Tech 26
7. Texas Tech 37 10. Missouri 20
6. Mississippi 37 11. Memphis 16

Round 2
4. Texas A&M 34 5. Indiana 20
8. Georgia 33 1. Miami 10
6. Mississippi 40 3. Oregon 20
2. Ohio St 70 (!) 7. Texas Tech 45

Semifinals
8. Georgia 43 4. Texas A&M 20
2. Ohio St 31 6. Mississippi 30

Championship
2. Ohio St. 42 8. Georgia 37

Ohio State is your first sim champ!

I also simmed a UConn schedule against these 12 teams -- we went 2-10 with a 37-26 win over Miami and a commanding 58-17 win over Missouri.

More to come next week!

 

[Purple Stein]

Here we go, sim 2, after the games of 10/11:

Round 1
12. USF 28 5. Indiana 20
8. Georgia 31 9. Notre Dame 20
10. Ole Miss 58 7. Oregon 17
6. Texas A&M 35 11. LSU 23

Round 2
4. Texas Tech 40 12. USF 27
1. Ohio St 27 8. Georgia 14
10. Ole Miss 30 2. Miami 27
3. Alabama 30 6. Texas A&M 16

Semifinals
1. Ohio St 52 4. Texas Tech 37
3. Alabama 52 10. Ole Miss 48

Championship
1. Ohio St 27 3. Alabama 19

Ohio State has now won the first two sim championships and is undefeated against substantial competition. Miami is winless.

A sim of UConn against these 12 teams resulted in a record of 3-9, with wins against Alabama (30-28), Texas Tech (44-41) and Oregon (48-38). Go Huskies!

 

[Purple Stein]

Your Vowelguy top 16 after 2 sims:

 

[Purple Stein]

Sim 3, heading into the weekend of 10/25:

First Round
No. 9 Georgia Tech 19 at No. 8 Oregon 44
No. 10 BYU 16 at No. 7 Ole Miss 49
No. 11 Vanderbilt 19 at No. 6 Georgia 27
No. 12 South Florida 24 at No. 5 Miami 38

Second Round
8. Oregon 23 at 1. Ohio State 14
7. Ole Miss 24 at 2. Indiana 47
6. Georgia 20 at 3. Alabama 24
5. Miami 41 at 4. Texas A&M 20

Semifinals
8. Oregon 31 vs 2. Indiana 38
5. Miami 44 vs 3. Alabama 38

Championship
5. Miami 40 vs 2. Indiana 28

Ohio State, after winning the first two sim championships, gets bounced in the round of 8 this time. Meanwhile, Miami, who up until now had been winless in sim tournaments, holds aloft their first simulated trophy.

Total Championships
Ohio State 2
Miami 1

UConn finished 2-10 against a schedule of these teams, with wins over USF and Texas A&M.

 

[Vowelguy]

FYI 2nd round games aren’t on campus
Orange sugar cotton Rose this year

 

[DoctorWho85]

Man I'd love a GT Indiana championship game

 

[JwittersPAC]

Sim 3, heading into the weekend of 10/25:

First Round
No. 9 Georgia Tech 19 at No. 8 Oregon 44
No. 10 BYU 16 at No. 7 Ole Miss 49
No. 11 Vanderbilt 19 at No. 6 Georgia 27
No. 12 South Florida 24 at No. 5 Miami 38

Second Round
8. Oregon 23 at 1. Ohio State 14
7. Ole Miss 24 at 2. Indiana 47
6. Georgia 20 at 3. Alabama 24
5. Miami 41 at 4. Texas A&M 20

Semifinals
8. Oregon 31 vs 2. Indiana 38
5. Miami 44 vs 3. Alabama 38

Championship
5. Miami 40 vs 2. Indiana 28

Ohio State, after winning the first two sim championships, gets bounced in the round of 8 this time. Meanwhile, Miami, who up until now had been winless in sim tournaments, holds aloft their first simulated trophy.

Total Championships
Ohio State 2
Miami 1

UConn finished 2-10 against a schedule of these teams, with wins over USF and Texas A&M.

UConn would beat Texas A&M?

 

[Purple Stein]

UConn would beat Texas A&M?

In this one sim in this one point and time, it was a thrilling 24-20 win!

 

[Purple Stein]

Your Vowelguy top 19 based on results from before this weekend -- lots of changes coming this week no doubt.

 

[ZooCougar]

Your Vowelguy top 19 based on results from before this weekend -- lots of changes coming this week no doubt.View attachment 112662

If 9-3 were a football team it would be LSU.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your Halloween weekend sim:

Round 1
9 Oregon 20 8 Vanderbilt 31
10 BYU 10 7 Miami 38
11 Georgia Tech 37 6 Ole Miss 27
12 Memphis 31 at 5 Georgia 37

Round 2
8. Vanderbilt 22 1. Ohio State 30
5. Georgia 27 4. Alabama 30
11. Georgia Tech 36 3. Texas A&M 21
7. Miami 34 2. Indiana 30

Semifinals
4. Alabama 37 1. Ohio State 31
11. Georgia Tech 34 7. Miami 14

Championship
11. Georgia Tech 38 4. Alabama 45

Alabama captures the first sim championship for the SEC while Georgia Tech makes a great run as an 11 seed. Over the past two weeks, it seems like the sim is falling in love with the ACC.

Total Championships:
Ohio State 2
Miami 1
Alabama 1

In a simmed schedule against these 12 teams, UConn went 1-11, managing only a 35-31 win over BYU (though we took Ole Miss to overtime and of course lost). We got crushed more than usual, which suggest that the sim does not look kindly upon our loss to Rice.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your updated VowelGuy top 19 - for the first time we have a new number one team in the sim, and it's Alabama.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your sim ahead of the games of 11/8:

Round One
12. Memphis 14 5. Georgia 10
9. Oregon 21 8. Texas Tech 34
11. UVA 48 6. Ole Miss 59
10. Notre Dame 30 7. BYU 45

Quarterfinals
12. Memphis 21 4. Alabama 35
8. Texas Tech 10 1. Ohio State 28
6. Ole Miss 44 3. Texas A&M 38
7. BYU 44 2. Indiana 31

Semifinals
4. Alabama 52 1. Ohio State 49 (2 OT)
6. Ole Miss 31 7. BYU 17

Championship
4. Alabama 35 6. Ole Miss 14

BYU has a magical run, but Alabama captures its second sim championship. It is clear at this point that the sim thinks that Alabama and Ohio State are the two best teams.

Total Championships:
Alabama 2
Ohio State 2
Miami 1

UConn had its best ever record against the field, going 4-8 with wins over Virginia, BYU, Texas A&M, and Indiana.

 

[Purple Stein]

And your VowelGuy top 19. Sim does not like A&M!

 

[JwittersPAC]

And your VowelGuy top 19. Sim does not like A&M!

View attachment 113062

I question your model. For example I think UConn has a good offense but a very poor defense. I find it hard to believe UConn would win 20% of the time against these teams listed.

 

[JwittersPAC]

Man I'd love a GT Indiana championship game

I could see Indiana. No way GT. The ACC is just terrible in football so winning league games mean nothing.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your sim before the weekend of 11/15:

Round One
12. USF 49 5. Georgia 48
9. Notre Dame 24 8. Oregon 66
11. Miami 35 6. Texas Tech 45
10. Texas 17 7. Ole Miss 23

Quarterfinals
12. USF 28 4. Alabama 43
8. Oregon 20 1. Ohio State 31
6. Texas Tech 30 3. Texas A&M 34
7. Ole Miss 20 2. Indiana 24

Semifinals
4. Alabama 17 1. Ohio State 21
3. Texas A&M 21 2. Indiana 28

Championship
2. Indiana 31 1. Ohio State 30

Interesting tournament this time around - the first all chalk semifinals, the first 1 vs 2 in the title game, and Indiana's first national championship! Despite their loss, the sim still seems to think that Ohio State and Alabama are the two best teams - this is the third straight week they've been matched up on the 1/4 line in the semifinals.

Total Championships:
Alabama 2
Ohio State 2
Miami 1
Indiana 1

UConn struggled against the field this week, posting a 2-10 record with wins over Notre Dame and Texas. A 62-3 loss to 12 seed USF was particularly humiliating.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your updated vowelguy top 20 sees Indiana surging to number 6 overall while Alabama holds onto the top overall ranking.

 

[JwittersPAC]

Your updated vowelguy top 20 sees Indiana surging to number 6 overall while Alabama holds onto the top overall ranking.

View attachment 113261

There are very few mediocre teams in the SEC. It will be interesting to see in the CFP this year if being battle hardened is an advantage.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your sim headed into the weekend of 11/22:

Round One
12. Tulane 38 5. Texas Tech 35
9. Notre Dame 31 8. Oklahoma 20
11. Miami 37 6. Ole Miss 44 (OT)
10. Alabama 21 7. Oregon 35

Quarterfinals
12. Tulane 24 4. Georgia 38
9. Notre Dame 24 1. Ohio State 31
6. Ole Miss 24 3. Texas A&m 34
7. Oregon 35 2. Indiana 31

Semifinals
4. Georgia 48 1. Ohio State 24
7. Oregon 27 3. Texas A&M 21

Championship
7. Oregon 31 4. Georgia 34

12 seeds continue their impressive first round runs and Georgia gets its first sim championship. As you can see from the list below, the sim sees a lot of parity in the field! This week, the sim finally finished its love affair with Alabama but has suddenly decided to take a shine to Oregon -- they climb 3 spots in the rankings from 12 to 9 after the run to the title game as a 7 seed.

Total Championships:
Alabama 2
Ohio State 2
Miami 1
Indiana 1
Georgia 1

UConn posted its first donut against the field this week, going 0-12. Painful 4 point losses to Notre Dame and Oklahoma and an overtime loss to national champion Georgia kept the Huskies out of the win column.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your updated Vowelguy top 22. Alabama holds onto the top overall ranking, with Georgia flying up the rankings from 9th to 3rd.

 

[Purple Stein]

One last sim as we head into the playoffs!

Round One
12. James Madison 20 5. Oregon 48
9. Alabama 38 8. Oklahoma 14
11. Tulane 37 6. Ole Miss 35
10. Miami 6 7. Texas A&M 20
Quarterfinals
5. Oregon 31 4. Texas Tech 34
9. Alabama 30 1. Indiana 37
11. Tulane 31 3. Georgia 32
7. Texas A&M 17 2. Ohio State 27
Semifinals
4. Texas Tech 33 1. Indiana 43
3. Georgia 15 2. Ohio State 23
Championship
2. Ohio State 42 1. Indiana 32

In a rematch of the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State gets its revenge and wins its third sim championship of the season. The sim loved chalk in the actual bracket, picking only two upsets across the 11 games.

Total Championships:
Ohio State 3
Alabama 2
Miami 1
Indiana 1
Georgia 1

No time to sim UConn against the field right now, but will add that later.

 

[Purple Stein]

Your final vowleguy top 23. Ohio State reclaims the number one overall ranking heading into the playoffs.

Even though the SEC has 3 of the top 5 teams, the sim thinks the Big Ten is by far the best conference.

Last year, the sim had Alabama ranked number one, and they preceded not to make the playoffs at all. Hopefully a better performance this time!

 

[Vowelguy]

One last sim as we head into the playoffs!

Round One
12. James Madison 20 5. Oregon 48
9. Alabama 38 8. Oklahoma 14
11. Tulane 37 6. Ole Miss 35
10. Miami 6 7. Texas A&M 20
Quarterfinals
5. Oregon 31 4. Texas Tech 34
9. Alabama 30 1. Indiana 37
11. Tulane 31 3. Georgia 32
7. Texas A&M 17 2. Ohio State 27
Semifinals
4. Texas Tech 33 1. Indiana 43
3. Georgia 15 2. Ohio State 23
Championship
2. Ohio State 42 1. Indiana 32

In a rematch of the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State gets its revenge and wins its third sim championship of the season. The sim loved chalk in the actual bracket, picking only two upsets across the 11 games.

Total Championships:
Ohio State 3
Alabama 2
Miami 1
Indiana 1
Georgia 1

No time to sim UConn against the field right now, but will add that later.

It would bring me such joy if “G5s are no better than AAA and don’t belong” Tulane beats SEC Ole Miss.