21-22 Projected Opponent Quad Rankings

[MU in MKE]

Heat check put out a list of the projected quad rankings of all teams for the upcoming year. If their projections hold, UConn should have atleast 25 quad 1 & 2 games.

This list assumes: 1. The make up Florida game doesn't happen until next year. 2. UConn faces VCU/LoC/etc at Battle for Atlantis for one Q2 game. 3. That there are at least 4 cupcakes on the schedule with two mystery games left.

The order is just broken between general non-con then conf. schedule

See quad projections here:
College basketball: NET Quad projections, schedule breakdowns for 2021-22 season — Heat Check CBB

School	Home/Neutral/Away	Quad Rank
Central Connecticut	Home	4​
Cupcake	Home	3 or 4​
??
??
B4A	Neutral	1​
B4A	Neutral	2​
B4A	Neutral	1​
Cupcake	Home	3 or 4​
WVU	Away	1​
St Bon	Neutral	1​
Cupcake	Home	3 or 4​
Georgetown	Away	1​
Georgetown	Home	2​
Marquette	Away	1​
Marquette	Home	2​
Creighton	Away	1​
Creighton	Home	2​
DePaul	Away	2​
DePaul	Home	3​
Butler	Away	2​
Butler	Home	3​
Xavier	Away	1​
Xavier	Home	1​
Villanova	Away	1​
Villanova	Home	1​
St. Johns	Away	1​
St. Johns	Home	2​
Providence	Away	1​
Providence	Home	2​
Seton Hall	Away	1​
Seton Hall	Home	1​

 

[auror]

Good stuff. For context, last year we had 15 Q1+Q2 games in 23 games.

Home to Depaul was Q4 last year and 5 BE games were Q3. They are forecasting only 2 such BE games this year, so we'll see.

 

[rollskies]

I know this isn’t the main takeaway, but this chart has me really wondering what Butler will look like this season

Looks like according to Heat Check, They are predicting Butler to be somewhere in the 76-135 NET range, which be 2nd worst to DePaul (assuming DePaul is the worst)

I have seen so many people have Butler around 5-6 in the BE rankings. I personally am still pretty low on Butler and I see them as a team more towards the bottom of the conference, so I don’t mind this prediction at all. Just pointing out they have been all over the place in different rankings i’ve seen.

 

[CL82]

Why are the quads different home vs away vs neutral?

 

[UconnU]

Why are the quads different home vs away vs neutral?

They put a lot of emphasis on away wins. Quad 1 is top 25 home, top 50 neutral, top 75 away.

 

[CL82]

They put a lot of emphasis on away wins. Quad 1 is top 25 home, top 50 neutral, top 75 away.

Thanks, I didn't know that.

 

[MU in MKE]

I know this isn’t the main takeaway, but this chart has me really wondering what Butler will look like this season

Looks like according to Heat Check, They are predicting Butler to be somewhere in the 76-135 NET range, which be 2nd worst to DePaul (assuming DePaul is the worst)

I have seen so many people have Butler around 5-6 in the BE rankings. I personally am still pretty low on Butler and I see them as a team more towards the bottom of the conference, so I don’t mind this prediction at all. Just pointing out they have been all over the place in different rankings i’ve seen.

I wonder though if it's because they really feel that way about Butler or if it has more to do with them using so many historical sources that it outweighed the potential that some people see in them.

For example, most years BE resumes will have quadrant breakdowns closer to the one below from 2020, which seems to be in line with their prediction from this year. Maybe they just expect things to be more normal this year?

 

[rollskies]

I wonder though if it's because they really feel that way about Butler or if it has more to do with them using so many historical sources that it outweighed the potential that some people see in them.

For example, most years BE resumes will have quadrant breakdowns closer to the one below from 2020, which seems to be in line with their prediction from this year. Maybe they just expect things to be more normal this year?

View attachment 69317

That would actually make sense. Could be heavily weighed on historical data. That matchup could very well end up being a quad 1 away game for the BE depending on how things actually play out for Butler. Either way it’s still refreshing to see bottom half big east teams still be in the top half of NET rankings for these purposes.

 

[andy34]

Heat Check also put out their preliminary bracket for next year. We're a 6 seed, and they have 6 Big East teams in the field including in no particular order: St. John's (8), Butler (11), Seton Hall (11, play in), Xavier (10), Villanova (2). A few scattered thoughts:

1. We're solidly now seen as the 2nd best team in the league. Can't argue with that, we have to actually beat Nova for people to think differently.
2. The middle of the Big East is a huge question mark. 6 bids is probably our ceiling as a conference next season. Who is gonna step up and win some big games besides us, Nova, and (hopefully) the Johnnies? Can Creighton surprise people next year?
3. Echoing what others have said in this thread, I'd be very surprised if Butler was an at-large big next year. They'll have lots of Q1&2 opportunities (just like we will) but this would be a massive improvement for them. I don't see it.
4. The American is a 2 bid league again, same as the A10 and the Mountain West. Lol

 

[auror]

Heat Check also put out their preliminary bracket for next year. We're a 6 seed, and they have 6 Big East teams in the field including in no particular order: St. John's (8), Butler (11), Seton Hall (11, play in), Xavier (10), Villanova (2). A few scattered thoughts:

1. We're solidly now seen as the 2nd best team in the league. Can't argue with that, we have to actually beat Nova for people to think differently.
2. The middle of the Big East is a huge question mark. 6 bids is probably our ceiling as a conference next season. Who is gonna step up and win some big games besides us, Nova, and (hopefully) the Johnnies? Can Creighton surprise people next year?
3. Echoing what others have said in this thread, I'd be very surprised if Butler was an at-large big next year. They'll have lots of Q1&2 opportunities (just like we will) but this would be a massive improvement for them. I don't see it.
4. The American is a 2 bid league again, same as the A10 and the Mountain West. Lol

I don't know how they have Butler in the field if they're projecting them to be worse than 75th. Two hands not talking to each other on that site.