2024 NFL Playoffs

[Husky25]

Of the four New York, Metro, and New England franchises, only Buffalo is playing beyond Sunday. On the other hand, the NFL broadcast format makes so anyone can follow their favorite teams from anywhere in the country. Also there are still Fantasy games that allow fans of non-playoff teams to remain engaged.

As the regular season gets longer, the slate seems to set earlier. This year, there are only two spots not set and five of the six Wildcards teams are already in the playoffs, but there is still some seed jockeying yet to play out.

In the AFC the last team in will be the 7 seed. The Broncos are in the driver's seat, but there's a double caveat. While they are hosting the Chiefs (15-1) in the 4:00 window, the Chiefs are rumored to be resting key starters.

The Dolphins, who hold the tiebreaker over the Broncos (record vs. AFC), need a Chiefs road victory and road win themselves at the Jets. Both games are in the 4:00 window. The Week 1 loss at New England looms large for the Bengals, who need losses by both the Dolphins and Broncos (against whom they are 1-0 H2H), as well as a win at Pittsburgh on Saturday night. Lose and they are done. Pittsburgh can still win the AFC North and host a wild card game, so they are going to be a tough out. The Chargers are currently the 6 seed but can move up to #5 with a win and Cinci win.

In the NFC, Wildcard seeding between The #7 Packers (home, 1:00 vs. CHI) and #6 Washington (at Dallas, 1:00; no Dak or CDL) can flip-flop. The 4 seed (NFC South Champ) is also still up for grabs. The Bucs (vs. New Orleans, 1:00) are in the driver's seat for the division, but Atlanta holds the tiebreaker. ATL need a win vs. Carolina at 1:00 and Bucs loss to win the division at 9-8. The NFC bye is also unsettled. The Lions are currently #1, but have the same record as #5 Minnesota. They play in Detroit at 8:20, where the loser (14-3) goes on the road next week at a potential 9-8 division winner. The Eagles (13-3) cannot clinch the 1 seed.

Personally, my rooting interests are in Washington and New England. So my preference is for Marshon Lattimore to get healthy, win (obviously), stay in the 6 hole, and play the Rams. I'm sick of the Eagles. After that, whatever. I do not think Washington has a shot at the Super Bowl, but their story over the last two seasons has been nothing short of remarkable and with $100M in next years cap, it should only continue.

In the AFC, I will be rooting for any team not sporting Red and Gold as their primary colors.

 

[storrsroars]

I really want to see Joe Burrow make the playoffs. The first drive tonight vs Steelers was surgical - 6/6, 64 yds and the TD in 5:11. The guy is just special. Too bad Cincy's defense is horrific. But I expect Bengals to win tonight, and if things break their way tomorrow and they get in, I wouldn't want to be the team that plays them.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I really want to see Joe Burrow make the playoffs. The first drive tonight vs Steelers was surgical - 6/6, 64 yds and the TD in 5:11. The guy is just special. Too bad Cincy's defense is horrific. But I expect Bengals to win tonight, and if things break their way tomorrow and they get in, I wouldn't want to be the team that plays them.

They're out. I'm very glad the Jets won so the Patriots don't face Denver and Cincinnati next year. I think the Bengals will shore up the defense and be very good. Denver D has been superb.

I can't predict the playoffs. It's pretty wide open.
AFC: The Chiefs look very vulnerable, but they seem to win. Buffalo is up and down. Baltimore always teases and then fails. Chargers are a dark horse candidate. Built for the playoffs.
NFC: Lions look great but the defense isn't always there. Vikings the opposite, the D is solid, but the offense can let them down. Eagles, Bucs or Rams could all pull this off.

 

[Husky25]

I really want to see Joe Burrow make the playoffs. The first drive tonight vs Steelers was surgical - 6/6, 64 yds and the TD in 5:11. The guy is just special. Too bad Cincy's defense is horrific. But I expect Bengals to win tonight, and if things break their way tomorrow and they get in, I wouldn't want to be the team that plays them.

Early losses to New England and Washington really put them in a hole. Now it turns out that Washington was not as terrible as expected, but looking past them and starting 1-4 is always a problem.

The Rams could not take care of business and fell to the 4 Seed. Washington (12-5) now has a second date in Tampa (10-7, -3). Looking at the Buc's schedule, they mainly beat the teams they should have, but I think it is fair to say that WSH is not the same team that Tampa soundly defeated in September.

WSH had a rookie QB playing his 1st real game, a makeshift line, new schemes on both sides of the ball. and holes in the secondary. They end up nearly doubling their Vegas O/U, Daniels is probably winning Rookie of the Year, Marshon Lattimore is on pace to play and Mike Sainristil is fairly solid. Biadasz needs to come back as well. The run game on both sides of the ball is concerning, but I don't think the game will be a repeat of the 3 score laugher from Week 1.

I don't think either team has much chance of getting past the Divisional Round and the NFC Rep in the Super Bowl will be either Detroit, Minn, or Philly.

 

[Husky25]

The first four games went as expected with the respective home teams (Division winners) winning pretty convincingly. I was building my son's pinewood derby car, but I had the games on in the background on my tablet in the garage.

I thought it was going to be more of the same during the first few drives last night, but Washington held Tampa to a field goal, then took a couple possessions to move the ball themselves. For personal reasons, I ended up having to go to bed after the failed 4th and goal conversion, so I didn't finish watching the game until this morning.

What a 4th Quarter! What a finish! This is what Parcells means when he referred to just getting into the tournament. This also marks the 4th game in a row that came down to Washington's last possession and the 5th that came down to the final possession overall. Though the final play in New Orleans should have never happened, but the refs inexplicably stopped a running clock for 4 seconds.

I expect Minnesota to win tonight and I expect the clock to strike midnight on Washington next week in Detroit. Regardless of what happens, they've had an unbelievable season. OTOH, they need to figure out their running game on both sides of the ball. I've seen a few way-to-early mock drafts that have them picking a DT, so that should help.

 

[Deepster]

I was disappointed by Denver. I know that's a tough game for a rookie QB, but they came out on fire then reality set in.

I'm also waiting for some defense to finally punch Josh Allen in the mouth. If he doesn't want to slide and wants to convert every 3rd and 4th down, then make him pay for it. I think he's super overrated as a QB.

 

[Husky25]

I was disappointed by Denver. I know that's a tough game for a rookie QB, but they came out on fire then reality set in.

I'm also waiting for some defense to finally punch Josh Allen in the mouth. If he doesn't want to slide and wants to convert every 3rd and 4th down, then make him pay for it. I think he's super overrated as a QB.

I was in the car when I heard that game went to halftime at 10-7, after Denver missed the field goal. I couldn't turn it on again until it was well in hand. Bo Nix was a back up fantasy QB on one of my teams. He looks like a player.

 

[Husky25]

I thought Minnesota had a great shot at winning last night, and a puncher's chance of going to the Super Bowl.

C'est la vie, but I don't think the emotional high that LA must have been on can be discounted.

HOU at KC
I think Houston has a chance in KC and I would be tempted to bet the spread (+8), if not the moneyline. 8 was exactly the final score when they played just before Christmas. Despite KC's 15-2 record, they seem more vulnerable than at any point in the last three years. Then again they seem to be getting the Officials advantage that so many whined about for Tom Brady.

WSH at DET
Allegiance aside and as I've alluded to above, I believe the Washington stagecoach reverts to a pumpkin and the steeds once again become mice. Detroit's offense is too explosive, Washington plays a bend/don't break type of defense, and their run defense is a sieve. OTOH, they tend to tighten up in the Red Zone, A Field goal attempt is a Win for Washington. I think they will be able to keep up with Detroit for a half or so, but if Montgomery is back (which is expected), Detroit would be best suited to keep the ball out of Daniels' hands and shorten the game. Washington tends to play keep-away as well with long drives ending in points. So if both teams employ the above strategy, the Under (55.5) looks enticing. Washington has a chance if Detroit doesn't convert in the red zone, it's close late, and Washington has the ball. The last five Washington games and six of their last seven were decided on the final possession.

LAR at PHI
I don't see much of a game here, quite frankly. The Rams have to travel 3,000 miles again (Phi beat them at the Linc 37-20 just before Thanksgiving) and play in the cold as their city burns. Their rush defense is not much better than Washington's, but they have to contend with Saquon Barkley, who ran for 255 back in November. This is the game you have on in the background while taking down the last of the Christmas decor. If only UConn was playing on Sunday.

BAL at BUF
These guys played earlier in the year on a Sunday night in Baltimore. I was at Sound Side in Bridgeport that night with a couple Bills fans and there were a lot more in the crowd. One of my friends chose to watch the game over seeing Greta Van Fleet and was pretty miffed by the time we all caught up again. It didn't get any better on the ride home either as Derrick Henry ran all over the Bills that night. I think I saw this game open as a pick'em, so it looks like Baltimore (-1.5) has attracted the early money. This looks like a real entertaining game, but I would give the edge to Buffalo in front of Bill's Mafia.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I thought Minnesota had a great shot at winning last night, and a puncher's chance of going to the Super Bowl.

C'est la vie, but I don't think the emotional high that LA must have been on can be discounted.

HOU at KC
I think Houston has a chance in KC and I would be tempted to bet the spread (+8), if not the moneyline. 8 was exactly the final score when they played just before Christmas. Despite KC's 15-2 record, they seem more vulnerable than at any point in the last three years. Then again they seem to be getting the Officials advantage that so many whined about for Tom Brady.

WSH at DET
Allegiance aside and as I've alluded to above, I believe the Washington stagecoach reverts to a pumpkin and the steeds once again become mice. Detroit's offense is too explosive, Washington plays a bend/don't break type of defense, and their run defense is a sieve. OTOH, they tend to tighten up in the Red Zone, A Field goal attempt is a Win for Washington. I think they will be able to keep up with Detroit for a half or so, but if Montgomery is back (which is expected), Detroit would be best suited to keep the ball out of Daniels' hands and shorten the game. Washington tends to play keep-away as well with long drives ending in points. So if both teams employ the above strategy, the Under (55.5) looks enticing. Washington has a chance if Detroit doesn't convert in the red zone, it's close late, and Washington has the ball. The last five Washington games and six of their last seven were decided on the final possession.

LAR at PHI
I don't see much of a game here, quite frankly. The Rams have to travel 3,000 miles again (Phi beat them at the Linc 37-20 just before Thanksgiving) and play in the cold as their city burns. Their rush defense is not much better than Washington's, but they have to contend with Saquon Barkley, who ran for 255 back in November. This is the game you have on in the background while taking down the last of the Christmas decor. If only UConn was playing on Sunday.

BAL at BUF
These guys played earlier in the year on a Sunday night in Baltimore. I was at Sound Side in Bridgeport that night with a couple Bills fans and there were a lot more in the crowd. One of my friends chose to watch the game over seeing Greta Van Fleet and was pretty miffed by the time we all caught up again. It didn't any better on the ride home either as Derrick Henry ran all over the Bills that night. I think I saw this game open as a pick'em, so it looks like Baltimore (-1.5) has attracted the early money. This looks like a real entertaining game, but I would give the edge to Buffalo in front of Bill's Mafia.

Hou/KC. Houston can win, but probably won't. The Texans Defense has been better and KC is living on the edge all year. KC tends to make clutch plays when needed. Hard to go against them in Arrowhead the way their D is playing. Maybe the under here.

Wash/Det. I think this is going to be competitive and close. Washington has been really clutch and Detroit's D is just ok. I think Detroit wins, but Washington is getting 8 and I think that's too much.

LAR at PHI. I see an upset here. Philly's passing offense is trash. The Rams passing offense is so different with Puka and Kupp. I don't think the fires play in, but the Rams are trending up and Philly is limping along. Should be very close.

Bal/Buf. The best matchup on paper. Could go either way, but Buffalo tends to make clutch plays at home. Baltimore is best when blowing people out. Can Baltimore win a close game against an equal opponent? Either team can beat KC.

 

[Deepster]

I don’t think Detroit runs the ball to keep Washington off the field. I go full throttle and dare Washington to match them. No way a rookie QB wins this game in that environment.

 

[Deepster]

I like Baltimore over Buffalo. Anything Allen can do, Lamar can do and they have D Henry. I think he’s the difference maker.

 

[Husky25]

I don’t think Detroit runs the ball to keep Washington off the field. I go full throttle and dare Washington to match them. No way a rookie QB wins this game in that environment.

Washington has a good chance of winning in this case. I think Campbell and Johnson are smarter than that.

7 points after a 3 minute quick strike is worth the same amount as 7 points after matriculating the ball down the field for 9 minutes. I hope Kingsbury would not get into a pi55ing contest of who can score faster. He hasn't all season. No reason to start now.

I think the key is whose defense is fresher in the 4th quarter.

 

[storrsroars]

Darnold was a nice redemption story. Until it wasn't. Last two weekends probably cost him several tens of millions of dollars.

I think it's Detroit's year and I'm hoping for a Detroit v Bills SB. Two teams with 0 SB wins.

While Lamar is uniquely talented, IMO, both he and Harbaugh are under intense pressure to get to an AFC final, and one or both will shoot themselves in the foot.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I don’t think Detroit runs the ball to keep Washington off the field. I go full throttle and dare Washington to match them. No way a rookie QB wins this game in that environment.

Detroit has one of the best running games in the NFL. Gibbs is the best RB playing in that game. That is what makes them so dangerous.

2024 NFL Offense Rushing Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Find a list of the Offense Rushing team stat leaders for the 2024 NFL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

 

[Deepster]

Detroit has one of the best running games in the NFL. Gibbs is the best RB playing in that game. That is what makes them so dangerous.

2024 NFL Offense Rushing Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

ESPN is the place for NFL stats! Find a list of the Offense Rushing team stat leaders for the 2024 NFL Regular Season.

www.espn.com

They're also 1st in scoring. They're not going to bleed the clock with the weapons and gamebreakers they have in Amon Ra, Jameson Williams, Laporta and Gibbs. The O/U is 55.5.

 

[HuskyHawk]

They're also 1st in scoring. They're not going to bleed the clock with the weapons and gamebreakers they have in Amon Ra, Jameson Williams, Laporta and Gibbs. The O/U is 55.5.

Oh I agree, but they can run the ball. The threat of them doing something aggressive in the passing game means that they can probably grind out first downs between Gibbs, Laporta and the WR. They can certainly play keep away when they need to.

The risk for Detroit is that Washington will go for broke and has great big play potential with Daniels and Terrible Terry. Detroit defense needs to step up and get Washington off the field on 3rd down, which Tampa kept failing to do.

 

[Deepster]

Oh I agree, but they can run the ball. The threat of them doing something aggressive in the passing game means that they can probably grind out first downs between Gibbs, Laporta and the WR. They can certainly play keep away when they need to.

The risk for Detroit is that Washington will go for broke and has great big play potential with Daniels and Terrible Terry. Detroit defense needs to step up and get Washington off the field on 3rd down, which Tampa kept failing to do.

The comment that started me on this was "I think they will be able to keep up with Detroit for a half or so, but if Montgomery is back (which is expected), Detroit would be best suited to keep the ball out of Daniels' hands and shorten the game."

I just think Detroit's offense is so good, they're not going to adjust their game plan to anyone...they're going to do what they do best and make you beat them. That's all.

 

[Husky25]

Oh I agree, but they can run the ball. The threat of them doing something aggressive in the passing game means that they can probably grind out first downs between Gibbs, Laporta and the WR. They can certainly play keep away when they need to.

The risk for Detroit is that Washington will go for broke and has great big play potential with Daniels and Terrible Terry. Detroit defense needs to step up and get Washington off the field on 3rd down, which Tampa kept failing to do.

His name is "Scary" Terry.

There have been three games, including the one on Sunday, this season where 2x Pro Bowl punter, Tres Way, has not taken off his ball cap and 3 others where he has only puntered once. 3rd down stops are important to stopping Washington, but they converted 87% of their 4th down attempts as well (albeit only 1 for 4...the most important one last weekend.

Detroit are more aggressive on late downs, but have a lower conversation rate.

 

[HuskyHawk]

His name is "Scary" Terry.

There have been three games, including the one on Sunday, this season where 2x Pro Bowl punter, Tres Way, has not taken off his ball cap and 3 others where he has only puntered once. 3rd down stops are important to stopping Washington, but they converted 87% of their 4th down attempts as well (albeit only 1 for 4...the most important one last weekend.

Detroit are more aggressive on late downs, but have a lower conversation rate.

Yeah I botched that. Terry is looking so much better with a real QB. The conversion rate doesn't seem sustainable against better defenses. Also, sooner or later that swashbuckling style is going to lead to interceptions and fumbles, which the Lions will definitely make you regret.

Look at the schedule. Other than Panthers, Browns and Cardinals they are in tight games every week. I think Detroit beats them, I just think it will be a 3-4 point game.