2020 Recruiting Thread | Page 24 | The Boneyard

2020 Recruiting Thread

Stainmaster

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Yeah, more validation on the recruiting strategy.

Those of us who actually follow the program have noticed the staff targeting more Southern/TX kids for years now. You aren’t pointing out anything we didn’t already know, nor are you fighting some group of posters telling you they aren’t.
 
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Chief ...

Do you remember when Greg Schiano of Rutgers held camps in Florida & put billboards in interstates in the Sunshine State.

Seems like 10 years ago
 
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Ryan Smith is a 6-2 200lb LB from Harrison High School in Kennesaw Georgia. Other offers from Air Force, Akron, Army, Austin Peay, BGSU, Coastal Carolina, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, EKU, FAU, Fordham, Holy Cross, Howard, Lehigh, Illinois State, Kent State, Liberty, Louisville, Ohio, Southern Illinois, Tennessee Tech, Troy, Tulane, USTA and Yale.

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As Chief was saying earlier, it’s a paradigm change, not the usual pattern from past years. This latest wave of offers just validated the information that Chief was trying to share. I am not trying to get in a debate about comparative educational systems in states but suffice to say we will need an Admissions Office that cooperates much more so than in the past, if this strategy is going to work.
If you compare RE 1.0 to RE 2.0, the recruiting geography strategy hasn't changed that much. What may have changed is the number of early offers in Southern states as historically, Florida kids have been late to commit. Also, we know schools throw out more offers than they did in the past and kids publicize offers more easily with Twitter. (And, Rivals typically didn't list FCS and some lower FBS offers in the past which made some past UConn recruits look like they didn't have any other offers. By the way, a Northeastern recruit is more likely to have FCS offers as there are a lot of FCS schools in the Northeast relative to other states. In NE/NY/PA there are 27 FCS schools. In the four big recruiting states there are 4 in California, 4 in Florida, 3 in Georgia, and 8 in Texas.)

Here are the recruits for RE 1.0 from 2004 to 2009 vs recruits for RE 2.0 in 2018 and 2019 by state and I threw in 2 years of Diaco as well (some states with a small number of recruits not listed and 2019 was a small recruiting class):

RE 1.0: CT 3.7, FL 3.5, PA 3.2, NJ 2.2, DC/MD 1.8, GA 1.7, MA 1.7, NY 1.7, VA 1.0, Canada 0.7, NH 0.7, Texas 0.7

RE 2.0: CT 3.0, FL 3.0, TX 2.5, Canada 2.0, DC/MD 2.0, GA 1.5, PA 1.5, MA 1.0, NY 1.0, NJ 0.5.

Diaco 2015/2016: NJ 4.5, CT 2.5, FL 2.0, MA 2.0, NY 1.5, PA 1.5, DC/MD 1.0, TX 0.5, VA 0.5

Given there is year to year volatility, the two RE groups look similar, but you could say we are doing more in Texas and less in NJ and PA. But, CT, FL, GA, and MD look pretty steady. I think the issue with PA is the smaller number of recruits. In 2005/2006, PA averaged ~47 current P5 recruits/year, but only ~33 recruits/year in 2018/2019.

Clearly, Diaco changed the recruiting geography: Heavier in NJ, lighter in FL, and nothing in GA or Canada.
 
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C

Chief00

If you compare RE 1.0 to RE 2.0, the recruiting geography strategy hasn't changed that much. What may have changed is the number of early offers in Southern states as historically, Florida kids have been late to commit. Also, we know schools throw out more offers than they did in the past and kids publicize offers more easily with Twitter. (And, Rivals typically didn't list FCS and some lower FBS offers in the past which made some past UConn recruits look like they didn't have any other offers. By the way, a Northeastern recruit is more likely to have FCS offers as there are a lot of FCS schools in the Northeast relative to other states. In NE/NY/PA there are 27 FCS schools. In the four big recruiting states there are 4 in California, 4 in Florida, 3 in Georgia, and 8 in Texas.)

Here are the recruits for RE 1.0 from 2004 to 2009 vs recruits for RE 2.0 in 2018 and 2019 by state and I threw in 2 years of Diaco as well (some states with a small number of recruits not listed and 2019 was a small recruiting class):

RE 1.0: CT 3.7, FL 3.5, PA 3.2, NJ 2.2, DC/MD 1.8, GA 1.7, MA 1.7, NY 1.7, VA 1.0, Canada 0.7, NH 0.7, Texas 0.7

RE 2.0: CT 3.0, FL 3.0, TX 2.5, Canada 2.0, DC/MD 2.0, GA 1.5, PA 1.5, MA 1.0, NY 1.0, NJ 0.5.

Diaco 2015/2016: NJ 4.5, CT 2.5, FL 2.0, MA 2.0, NY 1.5, PA 1.5, DC/MD 1.0, TX 0.5, VA 0.5

Given there is year to year volatility, the two RE groups look similar, but you could say we are doing more in Texas and less in NJ and PA. But, CT, FL, GA, and MD look pretty steady. I think the issue with PA is the smaller number of recruits. In 2005/2006, PA averaged ~47 current P5 recruits/year, but only ~33 recruits/year in 2018/2019.

Clearly, Diaco changed the recruiting geography: Heavier in NJ, lighter in FL, and nothing in GA or Canada.
Thanks for crunching the numbers - with nearly 60 offers so far to recruits in Southern states, something has changed this year. We usually bring in about 20 recruits - what’s the usual % of commits/offers?
 
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Thanks for crunching the numbers - with nearly 60 offers so far to recruits in Southern states, something has changed this year. We usually bring in about 20 recruits - what’s the usual % of commits/offers?
That is a good question. With some schools offering up to 400 scholarships for 20 to 25 spots, the yield is low. I think Edsall has typically offered a much lower number of scholarships. I think a 10% yield on offers would seem to be the target.

It seems the strategy this year is to offer the Southern recruits early and offer the Northern recruits during the upcoming camps. Edsall typically wants kids to camp for offers, but you can’t do that with Southern kids.
 
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That is a good question. With some schools offering up to 400 scholarships for 20 to 25 spots, the yield is low. I think Edsall has typically offered a much lower number of scholarships. I think a 10% yield on offers would seem to be the target.

It seems the strategy this year is to offer the Southern recruits early and offer the Northern recruits during the upcoming camps. Edsall typically wants kids to camp for offers, but you can’t do that with Southern kids.
I think this is exactly right. Let’s see how the offers shake out after the camps. I suspect it’ll be back to a normal balance.
 
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Winter Park Florida WR/DB Marcus Clarke:


I'm betting the list is adjusted since he picked up a "dream school offer" from the University of Miami today.
 
C

Chief00

Winter Park Florida WR/DB Marcus Clarke:


I'm betting the list is adjusted since he picked up a "dream school offer" from the University of Miami today.

I thought Randy1 was the only one allowed to have a dream school?
 

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Jarren Horton makes an offer in TX.

Jarin Johnson - 6’2 200lb OLB from Arlington TX. Jarin also has offers from Utah State, Bucknell and Louisiana Monroe,


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For perspective, this time last year we had just two commits; the infamous Darren Smith from TX and Dillon Harris - JUCO LB that had committed to us several times prior, but had to take the JUCO route to get the academics in order.

This is year is basically the same as last year.
 
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Pomfret CT native Cam Large attending Noble and Greenough up in MA. We were his third (after UMass /Kent State) of 26 offers.
 

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Pomfret CT native Cam Large attending Noble and Greenough up in MA. We were his third (after UMass /Kent State) of 26 offers.

Apparently he has no plans to heed Dino’s call to stay in the northeast.
 

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