2019: Vast Improvements

[VAHuskyFan]

We’re 13-9, in the bottom half of the conference, and far from being an at-large contender for the tournament.

But we’ve come a long way. Here are two facts that show how far the team has come this year vs. 2017 and 2018.

Blowout losses against good teams are WAY down: The past two years, we went 0-19 against RPI Top-50 opponents. What’s worse is how we lost. 15 of our losses (~79%) were by 10 or more. 9 of our losses (47%) were by 20 or more. We were basically even money to have the doors blown off us every time we stepped onto the court against a good team.

This year, we’re 1-6 against RPI Top-50 teams. Not a huge shift in winning percentage, but we’ve cut our double-digit losses in half (43% vs 79%) and only lost by 20 or more once (14% vs 47%). In other words, we’ve generally competed against good teams, even if we haven’t quite broken through to where the wins start piling up.

Blowout wins against bad teams are WAY up: The past two years, we went 13-2 against teams outside the RPI-Top-200. Rarely did we put bad teams away. We won by double digits less than half the time. And we won by 20+ just 3 times (20%).

This year, we’re 9-0. We’ve beat EVERY team by double digits. And 2/3rds of our wins have been by 20+. That’s a huge and encouraging shift.

What about the other games? The 2017 and 2018 Huskies went 16-15 against RPI 51-200 teams, outscoring opponents by 18 (half a point per game). This year, we’re 3-3 and have outscored our opponents by 31 (5+ points per game). Similar records, but the scoring margins suggest improvements here as well.

In conclusion, this team and Hurley have shifted the window of competitive games. The past two years, we got blown out by good teams and played everyone else close (even terrible teams). This year, we’ve played close against good and OK teams and run roughshod over bad teams. It’s a process, but the initial signs are encouraging — even if we haven’t seen a huge shift in wins and losses just yet.

 

[Huskybass]

Great quantitative analysis. Thank you.

We are also seeing some things we haven't seen in years. The kids are playing with passion and having fun. That pass from Josh to Sid yesterday was a thing of beauty. Kids are breaking through, starting to feel it. Great to see.

We have some real talent coming in next season and lots to like in terms of returning players. Josh, Christian, Sid, Gilbert and Polley will all be seasoned and on any given night any one of them can drop 15-20 points. This season hasn't been easy, but it is paving the way for a fun and successful 2019-20.

 

[Palatine]

We’re 13-9, in the bottom half of the conference, and far from being an at-large contender for the tournament.

But we’ve come a long way. Here are two facts that show how far the team has come this year vs. 2017 and 2018.

Blowout losses against good teams are WAY down: The past two years, we went 0-19 against RPI Top-50 opponents. What’s worse is how we lost. 15 of our losses (~79%) were by 10 or more. 9 of our losses (47%) were by 20 or more. We were basically even money to have the doors blown off us every time we stepped onto the court against a good team.

This year, we’re 1-6 against RPI Top-50 teams. Not a huge shift in winning percentage, but we’ve cut our double-digit losses in half (43% vs 79%) and only lost by 20 or more once (14% vs 47%). In other words, we’ve generally competed against good teams, even if we haven’t quite broken through to where the wins start piling up.

Blowout wins against bad teams are WAY up: The past two years, we went 13-2 against teams outside the RPI-Top-200. Rarely did we put bad teams away. We won by double digits less than half the time. And we won by 20+ just 3 times (20%).

This year, we’re 9-0. We’ve beat EVERY team by double digits. And 2/3rds of our wins have been by 20+. That’s a huge and encouraging shift.

What about the other games? The 2017 and 2018 Huskies went 16-15 against RPI 51-200 teams, outscoring opponents by 18 (half a point per game). This year, we’re 3-3 and have outscored our opponents by 31 (5+ points per game). Similar records, but the scoring margins suggest improvements here as well.

In conclusion, this team and Hurley have shifted the window of competitive games. The past two years, we got blown out by good teams and played everyone else close (even terrible teams). This year, we’ve played close against good and OK teams and run roughshod over bad teams. It’s a process, but the initial signs are encouraging — even if we haven’t seen a huge shift in wins and losses just yet.

Don't confuse everyone with facts and numbers. What about Jalen's shirt?

A couple of eyeball observations. Our transition defense is waaaaayy better than last year. Nova was the only game that stands out where we got destroyed by bad transition defense (and that was only for a half). We hit open jumpers at a much higher clip than last year. Can't give you a number but I believe my eyes. I also believe taht we have had more fast starts this year. We have had a couple of very slow starts lately but last year it was an epidemic. We still have no idea how to win a close game. But hopefully that will come.

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

Say we finish 6th in the league, cruise past Tulane or whomever in the first round. Do you think the third place team will be thinking “oh sweet, UConn. Easy W.” No chance, Lance. Coming for you, Tacko.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Say we finish 6th in the league, cruise past Tulane or whomever in the first round. Do you think the third place team will be thinking “oh sweet, UConn. Easy W.” No chance, Lance. Coming for you, Tacko.

If you're going to be mediocre, be a #6 seed.

Get a so-so #3 in the first round, with a chance that #2 and #1 are knocked out before you can face them.

 

[willie99]

Carlton taking giant steps forward, that's impressive, haven't seen that stuff in a long time

 

[Friendship]

We beat the teams we should (with a few surprises i.e. Syracuse) and we lose to the teams we should. Sign of good coaching. Would love to see a good win before the end of the season.

Encouraging for the future nonetheless

 

[Vancat]

Starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. And it's not a train.

 

[Mister P]

Just another sign that Hurley is molding the program and players to his style. He knew what he was inheriting and knew that there would be low points along the way. I just love his tenacity and the fact that he isn’t backing down to refs , opposing coaches and players(JA) in order to let everyone know that things will be done his way. I believe Hurley knew coming in that Jalen was basically a “rented” 1 year player who could help the team this year but wasn’t going to be a part of his rebuild. His means and methods are for the younger players.
Anyone who has played organized sports knows that a successful team starts at the top. He is setting the example for the underclassmen and the incoming recruiting class. As it’s been said many times on this board it’s starts with changing the culture of the program. Stay patient , good things ahead.

 

[Madmannsucks]

Hurley is most likely the solution. But last year the schedule was so much stronger. They have not played nearly the equivalent of last years schedule. Hence the lack of blow out losses.

 

[Marat]

Ok, anyone else boarding the UConn express to recovery? Stops will be limited once on the highway.....

 

[Guapo]

Yeah, this pretty much just confirms what we’ve seen with our own eyes.

This team, while not particularly good, plays real basketball.

We’ve gone from a “really bad basketball team” to a “real, but bad, basketball team.”

 

[LStudfellow]

Yeah, this pretty much just confirms what we’ve seen with our own eyes.

This team, while not particularly good, plays real basketball.

We’ve gone from a “really bad basketball team” to a “real, but bad, basketball team.”

I would amend this a bit. Are they still "bad"? Actually, I would say based upon objective results they have moved up into the "mediocre" column. In fact, their results (a few games above .500 and in the middle of the league standings, albeit a lesser league than the Old BE, of course) and rankings (anywhere between 72 and 143 depending on the metrics being used) are pretty much the definition of mediocre. Now of course I realize that for us longer term UConn fans including you, me and many others on here Guapo, any comparison of this group to almost every one of the 1987-1988 through 2013-2014 teams they are "bad", but more objectively the results and numbers say mediocre.

Either way, THE MOST IMPORTANT PART is: we are trending quite distinctively and substantially in a positive direction. Best example: Josh Carlton. It has been so long since we have seen actual in-season or even in-career improvement in a big man that we had almost forgotten what it looks like. Josh Carlton over the last 3 weeks to a month is EXACTLY what it looks like. Feels like a revelation.

GREAT job by our whole coaching staff, not just Hurley, to get the younger kids to buy into their program.

It feels so good to say "it is going to be really fun to watch the process" of our growth back into a Top 25 program over the next several years!

 

[Guapo]

I would amend this a bit. Are they still "bad"? Actually, I would say based upon objective results they have moved up into the "mediocre" column. In fact, their results (a few games above .500 and in the middle of the league standings, albeit a lesser league than the Old BE, of course) and rankings (anywhere between 72 and 143 depending on the metrics being used) are pretty much the definition of mediocre. Now of course I realize that for us longer term UConn fans including you, me and many others on here Guapo, any comparison of this group to almost every one of the 1987-1988 through 2013-2014 teams they are "bad", but more objectively the results and numbers say mediocre.

Either way, THE MOST IMPORTANT PART is: we are trending quite distinctively and substantially in a positive direction. Best example: Josh Carlton. It has been so long since we have seen actual in-season or even in-career improvement in a big man that we had almost forgotten what it looks like. Josh Carlton over the last 3 weeks to a month is EXACTLY what it looks like. Feels like a revelation.

GREAT job by our whole coaching staff, not just Hurley, to get the younger kids to buy into their program.

It feels so good to say "it is going to be really fun to watch the process" of our growth back into a Top 25 program over the next several years!

“Bad”, of course, is a relative term.

I don’t want my comment to be misconstrued; I’m happy with what I’ve seen this year. There’s been improvement both individually and as a team as the year as progressed. We’ve also seen bad habits that had been hardwired into this program slowly diminish.

I’m a huge believer in Hurley and I still believe this team has the talent to get hot and win the conference tourney, however unlikely that may be.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

This season was all about hitting the reset button and for the most part I'm pleased with some of the guys improvements (Carlton, Vital particularly).

With that said, there is still a long way to go and I am very interested in seeing this upcoming stretch at Temple, at Memphis, v Houston, at SMU and v Cincinnati. The numbers provided are encouraging, but it's such a small sample size to really mean anything.

Blowing out a league opponent is nice, but keep in mind that some of our league opponents are just as bad as early season cupcakes.

 

[RedsoxCowboys]

This season was all about hitting the reset button and for the most part I'm pleased with some of the guys improvements (Carlton, Vital particularly).

With that said, there is still a long way to go and I am very interested in seeing this upcoming stretch at Temple, at Memphis, v Houston, at SMU and v Cincinnati. The numbers provided are encouraging, but it's such a small sample size to really mean anything.

Blowing out a league opponent is nice, but keep in mind that some of our league opponents are just as bad as early season cupcakes.

I would say probably 2-3 in that 5 game stretch coming up, with 1-4 more likely than 3-2.

 

[Towney007]

Carlton and Vital have pretty much played themselves into reasons to be fairly excited next year. They're both playing with some confidence and I'm kind of excited for CV to take the reigns and be the leader next year.

Gilbert and Wilson give us some legitimate talent to work with and then adding in Bouknight, Gaffney and Akok will help a ton. I'm not confident Polley and company are all that good - but if they're bit players next year, I think they can fill that role really well.

Wild card for me id Diarra. I don't really know why I'm so optimistic about him, but i've loved his motor and if he can make a big step forward and stay healthy then that'd be huge. We could be a little better than we thought.

Obviously the big gap is in the middle. We need a grad transfer big. I'm kind of excited to see how things develop in the next two weeks.