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I sure wouldn't want to play Michigan state
2017 NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch
- Thread starter Drew
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Anything that could potentially knock Syracuse out is a result I'm rooting for, so I dig it. Great job Musketeers!
storrsroars
Exiled in Pittsburgh
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Hoping that advanced metrics get some love this year.
What I've got based on my own formula:
Last 4 Byes:
Middle Tennessee
Rhode Island
Nevada
Michigan St.
Last 4 In:
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Illinois State
Houston
First 4 Out:
Seton Hall
Indiana
USC
TCU
Next 4 Out:
Syracuse
Providence
California
Georgia
However, I have little doubt that the committee will see things differently. Indiana will likely replace Illinois St. and either Cuse or TCU will replace Houston. I also have Kansas St. firmly in, but I think they've got a good chance of getting replaced by a BE team. If USC sneaks in, then the committee is still giving far too much weight to RPI.
What I've got based on my own formula:
Last 4 Byes:
Middle Tennessee
Rhode Island
Nevada
Michigan St.
Last 4 In:
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Illinois State
Houston
First 4 Out:
Seton Hall
Indiana
USC
TCU
Next 4 Out:
Syracuse
Providence
California
Georgia
However, I have little doubt that the committee will see things differently. Indiana will likely replace Illinois St. and either Cuse or TCU will replace Houston. I also have Kansas St. firmly in, but I think they've got a good chance of getting replaced by a BE team. If USC sneaks in, then the committee is still giving far too much weight to RPI.
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Us or UCF. Also need URI to win their tourney, and maybe Alabama to win theirs?
I think they'll find a way to put 'Cuse in anyway.
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Take five: Rhode Island being out is a crime. Cuse being in over them is purely felonious.
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Michigan is already safely in and well ahead of Cuse.
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I think we're going to see some surprise selections. Just focusing on the AAC, I think UCF or Houston might sneak in, even if we somehow steal a bid.
For instance, Tulsa made it last year with way worse advanced metrics than Houston has, and roughly equivalent metrics to UCF. To be fair, they beat Cincy and SMU, but still, their numbers were mid-60s, and they had a poor RPI.
If UCF beats SMU today, I think there's a higher shot than we think of them getting in, and I wouldn't be utterly surprised to see Houston in there, either.
For instance, Tulsa made it last year with way worse advanced metrics than Houston has, and roughly equivalent metrics to UCF. To be fair, they beat Cincy and SMU, but still, their numbers were mid-60s, and they had a poor RPI.
If UCF beats SMU today, I think there's a higher shot than we think of them getting in, and I wouldn't be utterly surprised to see Houston in there, either.