2017 NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

[Drew]

So is Syracuse definitely in? Just lost to Miami by 5 in their first ACC tournament game.

I'm curious to see where Wake Forest falls. I don't think they are that good but they have gotten a few big wins lately. If they beat VT today are they a lock?

GT has to be out after losing to Pitt last night.

Vanderbilt seems to have played their way to the right side of the bubble by beating UF last week.

 

[Drew]

Jeff BorzelloESPN Staff Writer

Syracuse can't feel comfortable for Selection Sunday. RPI of 80, 2-11 away from home, five sub-90 losses -- countered by wins over Florida State, Duke and Virginia.
NCAAM 12m

 

[Drew]

Joe LunardiSenior Writer, ESPN.com

Am keeping Syracuse in the projected NCAA field despite today's loss. Next up, can Clemson keep its NCAA hopes alive?

 

[Paesano]

ESPN University will get in.

 

[Travelman6]

ugh, sick of these 13 and 14 loss teams getting so much love this year...cuse, vandy, tech, msu....let in a 25 (give or take) win mid major like Ill St..

(yah, I know, $$$ $peak$

 

[UConnSwag11]

if we win the tourney they're out, if xavier wins some games they're in same with wake

 

[gtcam]

if we win the tourney they're out, if xavier wins some games they're in same with wake

yep - very true

 

[Jaker]

Cuse will be in, book it

 

[Drew]

Wake got blown out tonight by VA Tech, I think they are so mediocre. Syracuse has a RPI of 84 and a record away from home of 2-11 that just isn't a tournament team at all

 

[Drew]

Also DePaul is currently beating Xavier at MSG. You have to think that if they lose this the Musketeers won't be in the tournament right?

 

[shizzle787]

Syracuse shouldn't sniff the tournament. They went 18-14. That's pathetic. Congrats, you beat three good teams at home. You also lost to us (ouch) and didn't beat anyone in the OOC portion of your schedule. At some point, losses (14!) should matter.

 

[whaler11]

Also DePaul is currently beating Xavier at MSG. You have to think that if they lose this the Musketeers won't be in the tournament right?

And when you saw Xavier make the three at the end of the first half - if you didn't go to your bookie and play Xavier -5.5 in the second half....

 

[whaler11]

Syracuse shouldn't sniff the tournament. They went 18-14. That's pathetic. Congrats, you beat three good teams at home. You also lost to us (ouch) and didn't beat anyone in the OOC portion of your schedule. At some point, losses (14!) should matter.

I put up a thread talking about how this was really the worst bubble ever - I was told it's always bad.

Yeah, that's not really the case. Lunardi is a clown but his stuff is a decent proxy. He had Wake Forest in going into today and Clemson the 5th team out.

He has 18-13 (8-10) Illinois off a loss to RUTGERS as the third team out.

Cal is his 7th team out - and they had to fight Oregon State to the death. 5 win Oregon State.

Kansas State is his second team out going into today. They have a losing record in a league where they played TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma twice.

This tournament is going to be a circus - but the easiest teams to fade are the teams getting in from the P5 who have done nothing. Kansas State. Syracuse. Vanderbilt. Iowa. Illinois. Wake. Michigan State. USC.

 

[shizzle787]

I put up a thread talking about how this was really the worst bubble ever - I was told it's always bad.

Yeah, that's not really the case. Lunardi is a clown but his stuff is a decent proxy. He had Wake Forest in going into today and Clemson the 5th team out.

He has 18-13 (8-10) Illinois off a loss to RUTGERS as the third team out.

Cal is his 7th team out - and they had to fight Oregon State to the death. 5 win Oregon State.

Kansas State is his second team out going into today. They have a losing record in a league where they played TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma twice.

This tournament is going to be a circus - but the easiest teams to fade are the teams getting in from the P5 who have done nothing. Kansas State. Syracuse. Vanderbilt. Iowa. Illinois. Wake. Michigan State. USC.

The point here is probably that the field should go back to 64. No one cares about the First Four , and teams that have no business getting in get in.

 

[whaler11]

The point here is probably that the field should go back to 64. No one cares about the First Four , and teams that have no business getting in get in.

I watch the first four games - and the only good thing about them is the 16s that win get an extra tourney credit for their league - but agreed the tournament should be 64.

They don't even do the First Four right - it should be 4 games starting at noon on Tuesday.

 

[shizzle787]

I bet on the first four games - and the only good thing about them is the 16s that win get an extra tourney credit for their league - but the tournament should be 64.

FIFY, and this is probably the only reason (other than stuffing more P5 teams in) for these games.

 

[whaler11]

FIFY, and this is probably the only reason (other than stuffing more P5 teams in) for these games.

I bet on them if I like a number, but I watch them either way. I watch a ton of low-major basketball - I go to a ton of Central, Hartford, Fairfield and Quinnipiac games. If I'm stuck at my inlaws and Bryant or Providence is home on a weekend afternoon I go to the game.

 

[uconngb]

And when you saw Xavier make the three at the end of the first half - if you didn't go to your bookie and play Xavier -5.5 in the second half....

Easiest money EVER

 

[Drew]

Bracketology with Joe Lunardi

Lunardi Last 4 In:

Syracuse
Xavier
Wake Forest
Illinois State

First Four Out:

Rhode Island
Kansas State
Illinois
Iowa

Next Four Out:

Houston
California
Indiana
Georgia

 

[Slasher]

Syracuse is not getting in. ESPN/Lunardi can pimp them all they want, but the worst RPI team to ever make an NCAA tournament as an at-large is 67. 84 would blow that away.

That RPI plus:
2-11 away from home.
194 rated non-conference SOS.
14 losses (would tie record for most losses for an at-large team)

Just don't see it.

 

[HooperScooper]

Syracuse is not getting in. ESPN/Lunardi can pimp them all they want, but the worst RPI team to ever make an NCAA tournament as an at-large is 67. 84 would blow that away.

That RPI plus:
2-11 away from home.
194 rated non-conference SOS.
14 losses (would tie record for most losses for an at-large team)

Just don't see it.

But you can't just look at their resume in a vacuum. You have to compare it to other bubble teams. I agree it seems like a weak resume for an at-large bid. But need to see the other resumes for comparison.

 

[Jerry1714]

Lunardi is pretty average on his brackets, which is sad, here are two that I would actually pay attention to:

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections: March 9, 2017 by @AndyBottoms

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2017

Also, Jerry Palm does not even have Cuse in the discussion for being in

 

[Drew]

Illinois just got blown out by a Michigan team that landed in DC at 1045 this morning after suffering a plane crash attempting to get to DC yesterday. There goes their hopes and dreams.

Georgia is up 4 on Tennessee with 10 minutes to go. Need to win to have any chance.

The more bubble teams that lose the better. If we can't get in I'd like to see Houston get in. Gray and Dotson would be fun to watch in the tournament for a game or 2

 

[Matrim55]

Don't think Illinois is getting in!

 

[champs99and04]

I put up a thread talking about how this was really the worst bubble ever - I was told it's always bad.

Yeah, that's not really the case. Lunardi is a clown but his stuff is a decent proxy. He had Wake Forest in going into today and Clemson the 5th team out.

He has 18-13 (8-10) Illinois off a loss to RUTGERS as the third team out.

Cal is his 7th team out - and they had to fight Oregon State to the death. 5 win Oregon State.

Kansas State is his second team out going into today. They have a losing record in a league where they played TCU, Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma twice.

This tournament is going to be a circus - but the easiest teams to fade are the teams getting in from the P5 who have done nothing. Kansas State. Syracuse. Vanderbilt. Iowa. Illinois. Wake. Michigan State. USC.

I'm completely on the other side here. There are going to be quality teams that don't get in, and it's because of the flaws in the selection process. Teams that won more games against tougher schedules are being left out for teams from better leagues because "quality wins" has become such an arbitrary and inflated statistic. Houston, Wake, and Rhode Island are all quality teams who might not get in. Even Syracuse is a tournament quality team, they're just not deserving - the line between deserving team and quality team has become blurred to the point where the formula needs an overhaul. Still: Rhode Island not getting in would be a crime.