2015 Recruiting Ranks: 12Jun update

[Vowelguy]

Not a lot of changes since a few weeks ago. Tenn up to #5 b/c of Cooper, Nebraska adds #58 to move up 5, and Louisville has a de-verbal dropping them from 3 to 7.

Uncommitted players:
Top 25: 9
26-50: 14
51-100: 20

 

[Vowelguy]

Of note:
Durr #2
Brown #7
Ogubowale #9
Camara #27

Anyone else that UConn is supposedly looking at?

fyi, CT's Kiah Gillespie is #32

 

[winlots]

One observation: think TENN moves up even more (in reality) due to arrival then of the transfer, just like we get a similar boost from arrival of Butler to compete that year.

One question: isn't that two years in a row for NEB to land a solid class? And, if so, has something changed out there? (I don't pay much attention at all to any basketball teams other than "Our Girls.") OK, so that's two questions.

 

[winlots]

VOW: again my thanks for your time and effort in putting these colorful presentations together.

And, as a PS to my post a moment ago, I'd say TENN in reality leapfrogs up to #2 and we go up to #1plus due to the transfers in.

 

[MilfordHusky]

UConn's class of 2014 is tough to evaluate in a sense, as it includes:

1 Canadian player

1 Homeschooled player (senior year)

1 Player with 2 major knee surgeries

1 Player who changed positions and schools

I love our kids, but their backgrounds are a bit unusual.

 

[Vowelguy]

Oh crud the thread should be titled 2015.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Oh crud the thread should be titled 2015.

Thanks. I didn't look closely because I'm fighting a cold, but something seemed amiss.

 

[Vowelguy]

Thanks to the mods for correcting my title!

 

[pap49cba]

Bret McCormick @ASGR1995 · Jun 11
ASGR#36 TT Starks 6-0 G 2015 Hopkins HS BROOKLYN Park MN has verbally pledged to Iowa State. AAU club Minnesota North Tartan.

 

[Vowelguy]

Bret McCormick @ASGR1995 · Jun 11
ASGR#36 TT Starks 6-0 G 2015 Hopkins HS BROOKLYN Park MN has verbally pledged to Iowa State. AAU club Minnesota North Tartan.

Yup. That's incorporated. Iowa st is 24th

 

[slug25]

I'm curious about your ranking metric that puts Purdue in 3rd place with two recruits in the 20's and a third in the 90's.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

I'm curious about your ranking metric that puts Purdue in 3rd place with two recruits in the 20's and a third in the 90's.

I was thinking the same thing.

No disrespect to vowelguy, who does a tremendous job compiling and updating this information. So my comments below are not intended to disparage vowelguy's work, and I hope no one interprets them as such.

But UCLA, for example, has two players at 17 and 24. Purdue's players are at 26, 29, and 96. So UCLA's entire class is ranked higher than the best player in Purdue's class. But Purdue's overall class ranking is higher because they have a third player, even though that third player is ranked in the mid-90s.

Look at Duke and Michigan. Duke's two player are at 25 and 37. Michigan has a four-player class, but no player is in the Top 50. Yet Michigan is ranked ahead of Duke (and by a significant margin in terms of points).

The women's game does not have the depth of its male counterpart. There is a significant difference among players in tiers, even if the depth of classes varies from year to year. It seems that in the rankings the number of commitments tends to be rewarded moreso than the quality of the commitments.

Vowelguy, if you would not mind, could you share the formula you use? Not trying to disparage your work, but I was curious as to how you account for differences among top 10 players, top 20 player, etc.

 

[Icebear]

VOW: again my thanks for your time and effort in putting these colorful presentations together.

And, as a PS to my post a moment ago, I'd say TENN in reality leapfrogs up to #2 and we go up to #1plus due to the transfers in.

Transfers do not fit in to the paradigm for a matrix based on graduating class rankings plus transfers will not be available for another year due to sitting out. In other words neither Natalie nor DD add anything to next years incoming recruiting class.

 

[Vowelguy]

I'm curious about your ranking metric that puts Purdue in 3rd place with two recruits in the 20's and a third in the 90's.

Any formula like this is inherently imperfect. Not only is the process ad hoc, but there is never a final outcome to compare whether the compilation was "good" or not. It's tricky to know how to make modifications over time, though I do occasionally, as you can probably always find a case where the results don't look so good -- I find that when I try to correct for those cases, other situations arise. So there's a push and pull to get things decent. (And this is just for fun, so it's not like I have infinite time to fine tune.)

The main thing that I wanted was for the compilation to NOT be linear. There is a much bigger gap between #1 and #2 than there is between #99 and #100, and I tried to develop a scheme to capture that.

Here goes. Helpful comments are welcome.

Here's how the players are scored:
* There are 5 ranking services used.
* #1 player = 400 points, #2 = 399, etc ...
* A player not listed is assumed to be unseen by those evaluators and thus given a low, but >0, point value.
* The point values are raised to the power 3.5 -- decidedly non-linear.
* The 5 rankings are weighted, with the middle value getting the most weight, so that outliers have less impact on the results.
* Lastly, the results are rebased so that a player with #1 in all services would score 1000, and the lowest rated player would be 0.

These are then aggregated to school totals:
* Each player's point total (NOT her rank) is used
* school total = 2/3 * (sum of player points) + 1/3 * (avg of player points)
* Using the average means that a school can't amass too high a total by getting a ton of mediocre players
* But, obviously, that 2/3-1/3 weighting was ad hoc

I'm sure some people would be in favor of a pure average and not a sum, but on that point I disagree. Yes, for a program like UConn, a class of 1 where the player is great would be sufficient. But most schools need to build up their rosters, and so getting 5 top 100 players is better than getting 1 top 20 player.

Purdue's point totals are 758, 753, 360, which puts it slightly ahead of ND's 895, 834.

 

[hoophuskee]

I don't think the player "360" (recruit in the 90's) should get as much value as you are giving. Notre Dame is similar to UCONN. A bench player with a rating of 360 (in the 90's) isn't that much of a factor, is it?

 

[Vowelguy]

I don't think the player "360" (recruit in the 90's) should get as much value as you are giving. Notre Dame is similar to UCONN. A bench player with a rating of 360 (in the 90's) isn't that much of a factor, is it?

A player ranked in the 90s is not a bench player at schools other than UConn and a few others.

 

[hoophuskee]

A player ranked in the 90s is not a bench player at schools other than UConn and a few others.

I know but here is what you said:

Yes, for a program like UConn, a class of 1 where the player is great would be sufficient

I was expressing Notre Dame in a similar light. I don't think Nore Dame is going to have that 90th ranked player start for them either. They have two superior players and the 90th ranked player is a bottom-of-the-bench player for them now I would think.

 

[itsasport]

I couldn't find the de-verbal from the Louisville Women's team. Their forum doesn't mention anything. There is a top player for the men's team that has decided not to go to Louisville.

 

[Vowelguy]

I couldn't find the de-verbal from the Louisville Women's team. Their forum doesn't mention anything. There is a top player for the men's team that has decided not to go to Louisville.

Maya benham according to a tweet by ProspectsNation
Though its website still lists her as Louisville, so not clear to me which is correct.

 

[HuskeySlim]

Regarding Winlots mention of Nebraska :

Coach Connie Yori has this Nebraska team headed in the right direction. She has got a top 10 recruiting class for 2015. Her # 1 is Jessica Shepard, ranked anywhere from #3 - #4, depending on which service you are looking at. Prospects Nation has her at #4. She is a 6'2 multi-talented player who can play inside or outside. A lot of folks haven't heard about her because she doesn't get a lot of pub. here in the East. Watch out for Jessica
Shepard in 2015. I bet she is a 4 year starter for Coach Yori.

She also has 6"3 Rachel Blackburn, rated #70 by prospects, and #71 Lanie Page a 6'3 forward from Kansas, who will be joining her sister Kaylee 2014, also a highly rated recruit.

The Big 10 and the rest of the country need to keep an eye out for Nebraska. Looks like they are on the move !

 

[winlots]

Regarding Winlots mention of Nebraska :

Coach Connie Yori has this Nebraska team headed in the right direction. She has got a top 10 recruiting class for 2015. Her # 1 is Jessica Shepard, ranked anywhere from #3 - #4, depending on which service you are looking at. Prospects Nation has her at #4. She is a 6'2 multi-talented player who can play inside or outside. A lot of folks haven't heard about her because she doesn't get a lot of pub. here in the East. Watch out for Jessica
Shepard in 2015. I bet she is a 4 year starter for Coach Yori.

She also has 6"3 Rachel Blackburn, rated #70 by prospects, and #71 Lanie Page a 6'3 forward from Kansas, who will be joining her sister Kaylee 2014, also a highly rated recruit.

The Big 10 and the rest of the country need to keep an eye out for Nebraska. Looks like they are on the move !

H.SLIM: Thanks for that feedback.....confirms my sense that the Huskers are becoming increasingly formidable (as I believe several teams are). But, I'm still wondering WHY.....is Yori relatively new (her name does seem familiar)......or recently adding some new solid recruiters to her staff...or something else at work there?

 

[Sonny44]

Nice to see some different programs moving up.