2.29 Bracketology

[Jerry1714]

I would not be surprised if the league got 2 teams or 4 teams, I would be really surprised if UConn and Cincy are not in the tournament, so 1 team would be very surprising. 2-0 weeks from us and Cincy I think lock up bids.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Even after yesterday, we are still averaging a 9 seed in the bracket matrix and are in the field in 76/77 of these bracket projections.

 

[Hi-Low]

I think Lunardi is a St. Joe's guy so maybe that explains it but how in the world are they are an apparent lock at an 8-seed? Best wins are Dayton, Temple & GW....5 top 100 wins and 2 of those are "bogus" (Princeton & Buffalo)....they have beaten exactly 1 tourney team (Dayton). They have an vastly inflated Rpi of 26, Bpi 42....no bad loses, 24 wins but 19 are rpi 100+....the resume when you actually break it down stinks!

Sour grapes I know but just shows how the Rpi is such a joke and should be completely tossed aside. Princeton Rpi is 35 with exactly 1 top 100 win (Yale)...lol...so Princeton's bogus Rpi boosts St. Joes...etc, etc.

 

[Hi-Low]

Last one (maybe) on this Bracketology nonsense....bored so checking resumes of teams apparently "locks" ahead of us.

Witchita St a 7 seed???....exactly 1 win of note (Utah).....otherwise nothing! I mean take a look....lost to some ok teams but only 1 win that is even remotely relevant. Just makes zero sense....I guess the key is to beat up on bad teams and lose to as many ok teams as possible.

At least UConn beat a few good teams not just 1 and no loses outside the top 100 like Witchita St. I know we dug this hole by losing to Temple & Cincy twice but very annoying when teams clearly worse on paper are regarded higher.....I know they were missing Van-Fleet for 3 of the good loses so I guess we can just assume they would have been wins....gimme a break, they lost games with him as well to lesser competition.

 

[Jerry1714]

We are 28th in Kenpom, only 2 teams ranked in the top 30 have been left out (Dayton in 2010 and WSU in 2011 were both 26th).

 

[pepband99]

We are 28th in Kenpom, only 2 teams ranked in the top 30 have been left out (Dayton in 2010 and WSU in 2011 were both 26th).

And that's AFTER a trainwreck of a defensive performance that probably cost us a few spots. We can probably get a couple of spots back. Moreso than RPI (aside from an AAC tourney run), where our fate is sealed somewhat.

 

[Hi-Low]

We are 28th in Kenpom, only 2 teams ranked in the top 30 have been left out (Dayton in 2010 and WSU in 2011 were both 26th).

Let's hope we stay inside the top 30 then.....

 

[UofCT]

Testing to see if I am still being controlled by the mods! However, I agree that we are a lock for the play in game. A lock!

 

[BFieldHusky]

Our other metrics besides RPI are solid. 28 in Kenpom. 26 in BPI. 32 in Sagarin.

 

[CTBasketball]

We lose to SMU were leaving it up to the committee. Need to win.

A mediocre LSU team feat. Ben Simmons could jump us. It's going to happen again for the 3rd year in a row.

 

[BFieldHusky]

Our other metrics besides RPI are solid. 28 in Kenpom. 26 in BPI. 32 in Sagarin.

Copied this from another board:

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

RPI
KPI
BPI
Pomeroy
Sagarin
LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.

Here are where the American teams currently rank in the six-rank average:

SMU 13
UConn 31
Cincy 33
Tulsa 47 (among the last 4 in)
-----------------
Houston 61
Temple 77

 

[Jerry1714]

Copied this from another board:

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

RPI
KPI
BPI
Pomeroy
Sagarin
LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.

Here are where the American teams currently rank in the six-rank average:

SMU 13
UConn 31
Cincy 33
Tulsa 47 (among the last 4 in)
-----------------
Houston 61
Temple 77

Very good post.

Our KPI is 41, LRMC is 30, RPI is 53, BPI is 26, Pomeroy is 28, and Sagarin is 32

So that actually averages 35

 

[Kitaman]

SMU Thursday is the biggest game since the AAC final last year.

Its our Tourney preview, and should be treated/played like an elimination game by the team.

 

[CTBasketball]

Copied this from another board:

So I have posted before an article saying that the selection committee looks at 6 rankings:

RPI
KPI
BPI
Pomeroy
Sagarin
LRMC

And I posted some research that if you averaged those six rankings last year, you would have correctly identified every at large team.

Currently, you have to be in the Top 50 of the six-rank average to get an at-large bid. There are 36 at-large bids, 12 conference champs in the Top 50, plus SMU/Louisville.

Here are where the American teams currently rank in the six-rank average:

SMU 13
UConn 31
Cincy 33
Tulsa 47 (among the last 4 in)
-----------------
Houston 61
Temple 77

For the added human element bonus:

• Joe Alleva - LSU Athletic Director, former Duke assoc. AD, loves Ben Simmons
• Joe Castiglione - Oklahoma Athletic Director, chairs NCAA Football APR committee
• Janet Cone - UNC Asheville Athletic Director, ties to Under Armour
• Tom Holmoe - BYU Athletic Director, Mormon
• Mark Hollis - Michigan State Athletic Director, an overall good guy
• Bernard Muir - Stanford Athletic Director
• Bruce Rasmussen - Creighton Athletic Director, only Big East representative
• Peter Roby - Northeastern Athletic Director, a New Britain born man and possibly our only tie to CT (nothing here actually).
• Jim Schaus - Ohio Univ Athletic Director, a big player in NCAA Basketball APR
• Kevin White - Duke Athletic Director, notable aszhole and steals from children.

As you see we have absolutely ZERO representation. I elect to beat SMU and win the AAC Tournament. There will be snubs this year, we must avoid being hit with that snub-nose bang bang. Need to win. Now.

 

[7774]

We lose to SMU were leaving it up to the committee. Need to win.

A mediocre LSU team feat. Ben Simmons could jump us. It's going to happen again for the 3rd year in a row.

You keep that tin foil hat fastened tight, buddy.

 

[CTBasketball]

You keep that tin foil hat fastened tight, buddy.

Have you been around the past 2 Selection Sundays?

 

[Jerry1714]

Have you been around the past 2 Selection Sundays?

Have you actually looked at the numbers and resumes? Clearly not, because if you had, which have been posted numerous times on this board, you would see you the whole "AAC always gets screwed" is inaccurate and unfounded.

 

[7774]

Have you been around the past 2 Selection Sundays?

Yes, it's just unlike you I actually try to look at all the facts, and reach conclusions based upon them as an objective non homer. I don't decide that the NCAA tournament committee has some special specific hatred for the AAC, and then cherry pick facts that support the conclusion that I've decided in advance is true.

 

[PcketknfNiels]

Agree. 2 at the most.



I've seen Wichita play multiple games this year and I'm just not impressed. Yes VanVleet is a top 10 PG but that's all they have. Baker has taken a step back this season and the rest of the team is average at best.

Wichita has 2 veteran leaders at guard that have been playing together forever. They're one of the last teams I would want to see in a 1st round match-up, especially if the prize for winning that would be to play MSU.

 

[Slasher]

I'm a bracketologist in my spare time. Here's my current S curve. Last year I missed one team, the abomination that was the UCLA selection. All but 4 selections were within one seed line. (VCU, SMU, Wichita State and Louisville). One caveat is that I don't have "predictions" plugged in that give bonuses to my formula, those include regular season championships of multi-bid leagues and tournament championships. A team like UNC would rise in that scenario as they lead the ACC. I start adding those when there's some clarity there. I also assume auto-bid is the highest ranked team in my S-Curve, not the current leader of the conference. The obvious 1-bid leagues are in no particular order at the bottom of the S-Curve, those I update as those teams win conference tournaments.


S-Curve Seed Team
1 1 Villanova
2 1 Kansas
3 1 Virginia
4 1 Oklahoma
5 2 Oregon
6 2 Xavier
7 2 Utah
8 2 Michigan State
9 3 Miami
10 3 North Carolina
11 3 West Virginia
12 3 Texas
13 4 Iowa State
14 4 Duke
15 4 Kentucky
16 4 Iowa
17 5 Purdue
18 5 Texas A&M
19 5 California
20 5 Maryland
21 6 Arizona
22 6 Baylor
23 6 Indiana
24 6 Texas Tech
25 7 Oregon State
26 7 Seton Hall
27 7 Colorado
28 7 Notre Dame
29 8 Wisconsin
30 8 Southern California
31 8 Saint Joseph's
32 8 Wichita State
33 9 Dayton
34 9 Vanderbilt
35 9 Connecticut
36 9 Pittsburgh
37 10 Tulsa
38 10 South Carolina
39 10 Cincinnati
40 10 Arkansas Little Rock
41 11 Florida
42 11* Michigan
43 11* VCU
44 11* Butler
45 11* Syracuse
46 11 San Diego State
47 12 Valparaiso
48 12 St. Mary's
49 12 Princeton
50 12 Monmouth
51 13 South Dakota State
52 13 Stony Brook
53 13 Hawaii
54 13 Hofstra
55 14 Akron
56 14 Chattanooga
57 14 C-USA
58 14 Atlantic Sun
59 15 Big Sky
60 15 Big West
61 15 Big South
62 15 MEAC
63 16 Northeast
64 16 Ohio Valley
65 16* Patriot
66 16* Southland
67 16* SWAC
68 16* WAC