2.1 Bracketology

[scdono]

We need to win 3 terrible games beat Tulsa Cincinnati or SMU and beat temple. Then at least win in the tournament and we'll be at least 8 seats. Make finals and 6 to 7. Win championship and possible 5 seed. Lose only two games beat SMU at home and win championship possible 4 seed, assuming 2 losses are against Cincinnati and SMU.

 

[CTBasketball]

We need to win 3 terrible games beat Tulsa Cincinnati or SMU and beat temple. Then at least win in the tournament and we'll be at least 8 seats. Make finals and 6 to 7. Win championship and possible 5 seed. Lose only two games beat SMU at home and win championship possible 4 seed, assuming 2 losses are against Cincinnati and SMU.

We'll need to win out to get a 5 seed. That's our ceiling.

 

[JMick]

We'll need to win out to get a 5 seed. That's our ceiling.

If we win out there is a small chance at a 4 seed. CBB has been crazy enough this year where if we win 11 in a row teams ahead of us are bound to lose

 

[BoatShow]

4 seed means we're 13th -16th best team in the country...

 

[JMick]

4 seed means we're 13th -16th best team in the country...

16 wouldn't be that crazy if we were to win out. SMU and Louisville are gone.

edit: we'd be 28-6 with a decent resume. with UL and SMU out 26-8 is good for top 20 and would be borderline for that 16 spot.

 

[tzznandrew]

16 wouldn't be that crazy if we were to win out. SMU and Louisville are gone.

edit: we'd be 28-6 with a decent resume. with UL and SMU out 26-8 is good for top 20 and would be borderline for that 16 spot.

In a world where they win out, playing Tulane/Tulsa/Cincy in the AAC (a random guesswork), they'd go into the tournament at 28-6 with an RPI of ~15 and a SOS of ~57.

That's right in the 4-5 range.

But I don't think this is the likeliest scenario.

 

[JMick]

In a world where they win out, playing Tulane/Tulsa/Cincy in the AAC (a random guesswork), they'd go into the tournament at 28-6 with an RPI of ~15 and a SOS of ~57.

That's right in the 4-5 range.

But I don't think this is the likeliest scenario.

Definitely not a likely scenario. If we keep playing like we have lately the sky is the limit, but as long as we show up I'm confident we'll earn a 7-8 seed. Two weeks ago I would've been surprised we're even having this discussion.

 

[auror]

We are 4-6 vs the top 100 RPI. Pu-pu it all you like it still reflects who you played and how you played them. We are also 1-2 vs the top 50.

I will because it doesn't. The rest of your point is spot on, but the RPI is utter shit and grouping wins by it is bad, especially without specifying home or road.

 

[scdono]

There's no way 5 is our ceiling. If we go strictly by RPI sure but ESPN BPI has us as a 5 seed right now. If we win the tournament beat Cincinnati twice, SMU once temple Tulsa, our RPI will definitely be below 20. I'd bet on a 4 seed. Ceiling is definitely not 5 seed. Also you have to eliminate SMU and Louisville from consideration. So from a pure RPI 18 could get you 4 seed.

 

[Jerry1714]

There's no way 5 is our ceiling. If we go strictly by RPI sure but ESPN BPI has us as a 5 seed right now. If we win the tournament beat Cincinnati twice, SMU once temple Tulsa, our RPI will definitely be below 20. I'd bet on a 4 seed. Ceiling is definitely not 5 seed. Also you have to eliminate SMU and Louisville from consideration. So from a pure RPI 18 could get you 4 seed.

If we won out and played for instance Memphis, Cincy, and Temple in the AAC tournament and won it we would have an RPI of 13, so a 4 seed is definitely possible

 

[auror]

If we won out and played for instance Memphis, Cincy, and Temple in the AAC tournament and won it we would have an RPI of 13, so a 4 seed is definitely possible

I don't think there's much chance of Cincy finishing 5th in conference (counting SMU, so 4th seed in tournament). They have a decently favorable schedule remaining.

If we won out and got #1 seed, more likely tourny scenario is East Carolina, Tulsa, and Temple (or Cincy maybe). Wizard still puts us at 15th in RPI in that scenario. Losing at SMU makes it 21.

 

[JMick]

4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th - whatever. Let's just get in the tournament and see how the match-ups fall. Anything less than a 7th seed would be a gift after our early season struggles.

 

[tzznandrew]

If we won out and played for instance Memphis, Cincy, and Temple in the AAC tournament and won it we would have an RPI of 13, so a 4 seed is definitely possible

Memphis would have to fall to the 8 seed (since we'd be the 1 if we won out). Right now, we'd get ECU, USF, or Tulane in that first game (2 wins or fewer).

The 4-5 matchup will likely be Tulsa/Houston/Memphis in round 2.

Temple or Cincy in the title game.