13 Regular Season Games Left. | The Boneyard

13 Regular Season Games Left.

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Hunt for 7

Hunt for 7

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We have 13 regular season games left. Went through the schedule and it seems the biggest games in question would be the following road games:

@ Villanova
@ St Johns
@ Creighton
@ Marquette

What is our most likely conference record?

15-5
16-4
17-3
18-2

Or will we unexpectedly lose a home game. My thought if we stay healthy is 17-3 with a chance at 18-2.

I understand one game at a time for the team but it is always fun to look ahead a bit.
 
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I'm guessing we have one boneheaded loss at home and 2-3 losses on the road. 2 of the tough games and one weird one versus a lesser team. It's the Big East so these things just happen.

Would put us at 16-4 or 15-5 in the conference. Probably 1st or 2nd place.
 
husky429 said:
I'm guessing we have one boneheaded loss at home and 2-3 losses on the road. 2 of the tough games and one weird one versus a lesser team. It's the Big East so these things just happen.

Would put us at 16-4 or 15-5 in the conference. Probably 1st or 2nd place.
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16-4 wins this conference. I think that's where we finish (doomed)
 
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BrassBonanza said:
I'm sad we have so little time left with Castle.
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Agree and he's just starting to bust out and showing what he is capable of. Hopefully a great finish before he moves on
 
Vuce said:
Agree and he's just starting to bust out and showing what he is capable of. Hopefully a great finish before he moves on
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I don't see him 'busting out' offensively this year. He's great defensively and we are lucky to have him, but he's EXTREMELY limited on offense. I hope the team realizes this and we avoid future games like last night where he's taking a significant volume of the team's perimeter shots. Last night would have been an exceptional game from him if he shot less. Put him in the Andre Jackson role in the offense this year and let him focus on defense, rebounds, assists, and fast breaks.
 
I think starting from the premise of us winning every home game is a bold move. Do I expect us to win every game, sure. Will we be favored in every game, sure.

Just locking in all wins when we still have Marquette, Villanova, Providence left seems a little crazy. Even Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall are tough matchups on any given night. Even being favored in every game on KenPom, the expected record in home games is 5-1
 
navery12 said:
I think starting from the premise of us winning every home game is a bold move. Do I expect us to win every game, sure. Will we be favored in every game, sure.

Just locking in all wins when we still have Marquette, Villanova, Providence left seems a little crazy. Even Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall are tough matchups on any given night. Even being favored in every game on KenPom, the expected record in home games is 5-1
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Providence is a bottom 3rd BE team at this point
 
We've played a pretty weak portion of the conference schedule so far.

I expect us to win at most 3 on the road against Creighton, Marquette, Nova, PC, and St. John's.

We're not going to run the table at home.

I think we'll probably go something like 9-4 the rest of the way, finish at 25-6 (15-5), maybe a game better. If we make the BET finals, that should be good enough for a #1 seed.
 
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navery12 said:
I think starting from the premise of us winning every home game is a bold move. Do I expect us to win every game, sure. Will we be favored in every game, sure.

Just locking in all wins when we still have Marquette, Villanova, Providence left seems a little crazy. Even Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall are tough matchups on any given night. Even being favored in every game on KenPom, the expected record in home games is 5-1
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Providence without Bryce Hopkins isn't a game we should lose home or away. They're 1-4 without him—closer games than you'd think (so good on Kim English) but they're essentially about a half-step ahead of Georgetown without him.

That said, I totally agree that there will be some difficult home games even against "lesser" teams and we will undoubtedly drop one or two "dumb" games still.

If we win @ Villanova this weekend, though, I definitely expect to be rolling into St. John's at 19-2.

The Big East is nowhere near as good as we thought it would be. We thought there'd be an upper crust of teams competing for 1 and 2 seeds. It's really just us there, and Marquette competing for a 3 or 4. Everyone else is 6 seed or worse. I don't really love that—I'd like another few real top shelf games. Oh well.
 
I'm gonna drink the Kool-Aid and say we go 17-3 and finish first. No home losses. The way Seton Hall is playing right now, we might need to win 11 out of 13 to finish on top!
 

According to Torvik, 66% chance of ending with 14/15/16 wins, with 15 being the most common (25% chance).

The way this conference season has gone (and looking at the projected matrix), 14 wins likely has a chance to split the title, unless Seton Hall keeps it up to a Marquette-esque level from last season.
 
auror said:

According to Torvik, 66% chance of ending with 14/15/16 wins, with 15 being the most common (25% chance).

The way this conference season has gone, 14 wins likely has a chance to split the title, unless Seton Hall keeps it up to a Marquette-esque level from last season.
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2/3 of the conference already has 3 losses lol. I think 15-5 wins the league
 
AntG168 said:
Providence is a bottom 3rd BE team at this point
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Which is why we should and will beat them, but we've been down this road before with just writing in a bunch of "easy" wins and rolling into the Big East tournament at 29-2. We're the best team in the country but I'm not exactly ready to lock that in
 
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Trying to run out the season with all Ws and staying at no. 1 takes enormous mental energy and toll on team. I’m hoping for a loss or 2 because we can’t be spent going into the NCAAs
 
I'm less focused on the number of wins and more on winning the Big East regular season. And towards that goal, Saturday night is absolutely huge. A road win (and if 'Nova plays well it will be a tough road win) would put us two clear of everyone in the conference other than Seton Hall. And when we get the Hall again, it won't be in friggin Jersey.
 
giddyup said:
Trying to run out the season with all Ws and staying at no. 1 takes enormous mental energy and toll on team. I’m hoping for a loss or 2 because we can’t be spent going into the NCAAs
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Agreed kind of my reason for looking at the games left. This is all about peaking at the right time. But also considering the 99 and 04 ( 04 not as dominant in season but they were favored pre season) teams were mostly dominant all year without any peaks or valleys. Is this team capable of shouldering all the things that would come from being the favorite from this point moving forward.
 
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Last night's defensive effort/offensive rebounding excellence changed how I would respond to this OP.

As long as we're healthy-- I see our floor for the rest of the regular season as 13-3. (EDIT: 10-3. My bad.)
 
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If everyone is healthy, I’ll say we run the table at home and have two losses on the road. Similar to last season, we have so many weapons that if someone has a dog poop night, there are several others who can step up.
 
Umami Zen said:
Last night's defensive effort/offensive rebounding excellence changed how I would respond to this OP.

As long as we're healthy-- I see our floor for the rest of the regular season as 13-3.
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Did you mean 10-3, and then 3 BE tourney wins?
 
So far looks like 16-4 or 15-5 are running neck to neck. I love our fan base. We have every reason to be saying things like we will run the table etc. But not our fan base we are realists and although we hate it when it happens these late season conference games are so difficult to call. Teams might be playing for their ncaa tourney lives and then you have to factor in the officiating. Last night was ok but that’s as good as it is going to get as far as officiating until the ncaa tourney. I could see us losing a close game due a bad call or just one night the officiating just taking us out of the entire game. Saturday will be interesting, the officials love Nova and the memory of the classy Jay Wright. I imagine we will be on the short end of the officiating stick in this game.
 
SilentDog said:
So far looks like 16-4 or 15-5 are running neck to neck. I love our fan base. We have every reason to be saying things like we will run the table etc. But not our fan base we are realists and although we hate it when it happens these late season conference games are so difficult to call. Teams might be playing for their ncaa tourney lives and then you have to factor in the officiating. Last night was ok but that’s as good as it is going to get as far as officiating until the ncaa tourney. I could see us losing a close game due a bad call or just one night the officiating just taking us out of the entire game. Saturday will be interesting, the officials love Nova and the memory of the classy Jay Wright. I imagine we will be on the short end of the officiating stick in this game.
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Yeah when I think about this board the first thing that comes to mind is how realistic posters are about things.
 
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