12/27/21: NET Rank v. AP Poll

[Skeets]

The bookies set lines that will produce an equal amount of wagering on either team. Lines get adjusted or not based on the betting. If you hear of a bookie who "got killed" on a certain game then it's likely that it wasn't a bookie but a gambler who sat on some wagers. That isn't bookmaking.

Yep, like most of us, bookies want to maximize their profits. They do this by tweaking the odds so that an equal number of people bet on each team. Small time bookies don't have much control of the odds. When their books are out of balance they have to "lay off" bets to bigger bookies. Sorta like buying loss prevention insurance. There is a science to this...

 

[darkstar1]

No. They make odds and handle bets. They are not predictors of outcomes.

When a spread is established, it is a prediction of outcome. The only line that isn’t a prediction is a pick’em.

 

[visitingcock]

When a spread is established, it is a prediction of outcome. The only line that isn’t a prediction is a pick’em.

It is not a prediction of outcome. It is an agreement to pay if you choose on either side of the line. If more gets bet on one side - the line moves.

 

[darkstar1]

It is not a prediction of outcome. It is an agreement to pay if you choose on either side of the line. If more gets bet on one side - the line moves.

I believe we agree and it’s just semantics. I know how it works. Been betting long enough. Of course lines move based on betting patterns. Indeed many predictions are based on the lines established.