Great D last night. Need to hit some outside shots though.....Polley looked pretty good considering what his week was probably like. So....a win tonight should get us a 4......any chance for a 3 seed? Great to be talking high seeds again.
1 more - 4 seed? 2 more - 3 seed?
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Had we won the Creighton game probably… now if we win the BET maybe we get to the 3, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it. Would definitely guarantee a 4 though. One more win puts us firmly in the 4 conversation, though again, I probably wouldn’t bet on it. But I think the win last night locked us in as a 5 minimum.
E: as auror said, it’s gonna depend on what other teams around us on the s-curve do.
E: as auror said, it’s gonna depend on what other teams around us on the s-curve do.
This depends on what the other teams in that same range do. Texas losing is good.
Other teams to root against...
Houston
Illinois
UCLA
Arkansas
Providence
I think a 3 might be a stretch unless we look really convincing against Nova and (probably would have to be) Providence.
Other teams to root against...
Houston
Illinois
UCLA
Arkansas
Providence
I think a 3 might be a stretch unless we look really convincing against Nova and (probably would have to be) Providence.
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CTBasketball
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I think we’re more on the 5 line now. Keep winning and cement a 4 seed at the minimum .
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I think we're locked in with a floor of a 5 seed now. Win tonight and we'll have a good shot at a 4 seed. Have a hard time seeing a path to a 3 since I think we'd have to beat Nova and PC, and if PC makes the championship game they might still be ahead of us
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Houston is so overrated. Haven't beaten anyone. Got smoked by Memphis. They're 3-3 against the top 3 teams in AAC (SMU, Memphis, Wichita). Gets me so mad that they've been ranked ahead of us consistently. None of those are KenPom top 25 teams. Memphis 28, SMU 58, Wichita 95.
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I have a bad feeling that we needed Providence to lose yesterday to get onto the 4 line. We need to beat Nova and probably have one of those other teams lose earlier than expected, or beat both Nova and Providence, to be a guaranteed 4. I think a 3 is out of the question. Maybe in years past where late-season performance was weighted more strongly, but not anymore -- too many meh losses earlier in the year.
Houston I think is behind us. The others we need to root against.
Remember, every other team on the 5 line along with us is thinking "1 more big win and we move up". Well, if everyone wins, then not everyone can move up.
My take:
Lose to Nova: 5 seed regardless (tread water)
Beat Nova, lose BET finals: 5 seed if other teams hold serve, 4 seed if 1-2 of them lose early
Win BET: 4 seed
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This is where I'm at too.
One of the problems is that Creighton is not top 50 in NET, so if they're in the champ game, it will only be a Q2 win. But if Providence makes the BET final instead, it'll be very hard for us to be seeded ahead of them (regular season champ who made tourny finals at 26-5).
Our best chance is still probably Providence makes it and then we pass other teams, not them.
Yeah I was surprised Creighton was only 64 in the NET. I think they are much better than that ranking indicates. I wonder if they beat PC how much their NET would improve- albeit likely not enough to get them to top 50.
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At this point, no one is moving more than a couple spots in either direction.
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FfldCntyFan
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I was speaking last night on the walk to Grand Central after we beat SH last night.
I am fully aware of the stark difference in quality of first round opponent from the four seed to five seed but I think in our specific case that won't really be an issue.
Twelve seeds are normally power conference schools, with power conference length and athleticism that for whatever reason had a middling season. Thirteen seeds are often smaller conference schools who while relatively deficient in spots in terms of length and athleticism, are normally well disciplined and play smart basketball within their abilities.
I see this version of our Huskies having far less trouble with the former than they would with the latter.
I am fully aware of the stark difference in quality of first round opponent from the four seed to five seed but I think in our specific case that won't really be an issue.
Twelve seeds are normally power conference schools, with power conference length and athleticism that for whatever reason had a middling season. Thirteen seeds are often smaller conference schools who while relatively deficient in spots in terms of length and athleticism, are normally well disciplined and play smart basketball within their abilities.
I see this version of our Huskies having far less trouble with the former than they would with the latter.
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Geez, what is up with Creighton’s NET?
Creighton: 21-10 (6-5 Q1, 4-4 Q2) = 64?
Then you have:
Michigan: 17-14 (5-10 Q1, 3-3 Q2) = 34
Oklahoma: 18-14 (4-11 Q1, 6-2 Q2) = 38
Oklahoma St: 15-15 (4-10 Q1, 3-3 Q2) = 49
Oklahoma State has a Q4 loss as well. But Creighton lost two games by 20+ so they must not be very good. The NCAA needs to fix its NET algorithm.
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I actually wonder if we lose to Creighton in the championship game, if that would "undo" any of the gain we would get from beating Nova.
I don't think they would ding us for losing to Providence, but I wonder if losing to Creighton would knock us off the 4 line if we would otherwise be there after beating Nova.
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If we want a 4 seed, we need Illinois (playing right now) to lose to Indiana.
Arkansas (another prospective 4 seed) plays LSU, who Lunardi has as a 5, so this may be a wash anyway.
Iowa is another team that could move ahead of us with a deep run, they play Rutgers.
USC could knock UCLA off the 4 line, but could also work their way up themselves.
Not a lot of unequivocally good outcomes for us. Providence losing is one of them, but then we need to beat both Nova and Creighton.
Arkansas (another prospective 4 seed) plays LSU, who Lunardi has as a 5, so this may be a wash anyway.
Iowa is another team that could move ahead of us with a deep run, they play Rutgers.
USC could knock UCLA off the 4 line, but could also work their way up themselves.
Not a lot of unequivocally good outcomes for us. Providence losing is one of them, but then we need to beat both Nova and Creighton.
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And Illinois goes down. If we win tonight, we should get a 4 seed over Illinois.
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We should go back.
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We just moved ahead of LSU in Kenpom with their loss.
wheelerdog
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I don't think we can get to the 3 line, but winning the tournament would get us off the worst 4/best 5 slot and out of Gonzaga's bracket.