This isn't to say veterans can't make mistakes and it also doesn't mean one and done culture can't win a championship, but I would say your odds are better with the old school culture than the one and done culture.
I guess this is as good as any place for me to jump in. I was actually thinking about this topic over the past few days and have discussed similar Topic in the past.
I've witnessed two different dynamics where young inexperienced players, particularly freshmen, can shoot you in the ass somewhere along the way to the Final Four.
One relates to the importance of having experienced guards and or players that have the ball in their hands during winning time that know how to make winning plays without getting their mind all jumbled due to the pressure and magnitude of the moment.
The other is having one-and-done freshman, usually guards that have the ball in their hands throughout most of the game, who want to impress the NBA coaches and scouts, and can't help but keep on shooting and missing, eventually shooting their team right out of the tournament. You often see that in some of the earlier rounds were they lose even though they're a higher seed.
With Dook's Final-4 loss the other night, the young players actually performed pretty well throughout most of the tournament, but failed to close out their game against Houston, where the moment was simply too big for them and the more experienced players simply weren't able to lead the team through those high pressure winning time possessions.
If my memory serves me, the Michigan fab five way back in the day completely imploded at the end of the game, but they did make it to that NCAA Final game.
I remember UConn beating one of Calipari's Kentucky teams where their highly touted freshman point guard completely shot them right out of that game.
As pointed out, even upperclassmen who had been balling most of the season often can't handle high pressure moments in a win-or-go-home tournament. It's not just closing out games, but handling situations when an opponent makes a run to overtake the lead or pull away during a close game. We've been fortunate to have many ballers who handled those situations such as Khalid El Amin, Ricky Moore, Kemba, Bazz, Newton, Cam, to name a few.
Note that our Husky Women's team demonstrated this during their NC run that netted them NC #12, where their experienced leaders and even their freshman star, all excelled during their high pressure and winning time moments.
Conversely, the key players on our men's team, both experienced (Karaban) and young (McNeeley & Ball) simply didn't handle the magnitude of the game, specifically making open and lightly contested shot, and failing late in the game with the lead to score and make the stops needed to advance past UF. Though, I'd be remiss to not mention that they arguably had their best defensive game of the year, sans the last few minutes of the game. I'm still not sure why they missed so many open looks. If they simply had a middling type of shooting game they win that by double digits. As flawed as they were, they had the talent to advance deep into the tourney, but they relied heavily on the freshman, McNeeley, who just didn't have enough experience to handle the magnitude of a win-or-go-home game against a #1 seed, while UF's star 4 yr PG, Walter Clayton Jr, so far, has carried the Gators to the championship game.
Bottom line, there are just very few NCAA Men's championship teams that were led by a freshman PG, or players who had the ball in their hands, that were relied on to win games for them.
As much talent the staff has brought in for next year, we have to hope that Silas Demary Jr and the young and returning players have the skill and mental toughness to handle those high magnitude moments. I'd like to see them add a second point or combo guard that has the skill and mental toughness to hold their own since Demary won't be able to play 40 minutes. It's not going to be easy to land that type of player, but hopefully the staff can spin their magic and land a solid backup lead guard. Good thing they didn't bring in a freshman to fill the lead guard position, though Adams might see some backup time at the 1.
