#1 and #2 Seeds Going into Conference Tournament weekend

[bballnut90]

Assuming UCONN easily handles Louisville tomorrow, I think the top 8 seeds at this point should be:
1. Connecticut
1. Louisville
1. Notre Dame
1. Stanford

2. Duke
2. South Carolina
2. Tennessee
2. West Virginia

I listed the teams in alphabetical order...obviously the top overall seed will be Notre Dame or Connecticut, with a 95% chance it being UCONN. I don't think the difference between being named the top overall or the #2 overall will really matter considering that the rest of the field is so far below these two teams, I'll be stunned if the championship game isn't Notre Dame vs. Connecticut.

At any rate, for the rest of the #1s and #2s...obviously, a lot will depend on conference tournament play but I think Notre Dame/UConn/Stanford will all be locks for #1 seeds unless Stanford majorly fudges in their conference tournament.

I think if South Carolina wins the SEC tourney, they should jump Louisville for the last #1 unless Louisville can beat/almost beat UConn. 0 bad losses and a better SOS than Louisville with a comparable/favorable record to Louisville...I think they nab that last spot over Louisville, especially if they beat Tennessee and Kentucky in the tournament.

I think if Louisville gets blasted by UCONN two more times and still manages to cling on to a #1 seed they'll go down as one of the least proven #1 seeds of all time. They have 0 wins against top 20 teams, and only 2 wins against top 25 teams (against #24 Rutgers)....I really can't justify them getting a #1 seed but at this point, I think you have to give it to them over anyone else.


If Louisville gets blasted and Tennessee beats South Carolina and Texas A&M in the conference tournament, you could make a great case for the Lady Vols to be a #1 seed. They'll be 27-5 with several strong wins in the SEC and against UNC....they have 2 bad losses to Vanderbilt and LSU but I anticipate the committee rewarding Tennessee for their strong SOS and finish to end the season (if they win the SEC tourney they'll enter the tournament winning 13 of their last 14.)


Outside of Louisville/South Carolina/Tennessee, I don't see any other strong contenders for the final #1 seed.

If Duke has a poor showing in the ACC tournament they could drop to a 3 or 4 seed solely because of their point guard issue despite having a pretty good regular season (wins over Kentucky, Cal, Purdue, Maryland and only losses to UNC, Notre Dame and Connecticut.) If they finish 2nd in the ACC tournament, I think you still give them a #2 seed.

West Virginia has emerged as a strong team after upsetting Baylor today. They have a horrible SOS, but after losing their first game of the season to Ohio State they have finished 26-2 with their only losses being a home loss to Baylor and a road loss at Texas. If they knock off Baylor in the Big 12 tournament, they'll get the nod for a #2 seed over Baylor. If Baylor beats WVU, I think they take the #2 seed.


Maryland could sneak in and take a #2 seed from Duke if they knock off the Blue Devils in the ACC Semis....and besides MD, I don't really see anyone else competing for a #2 seed.


So in summary:
#1 seed locks are:
-Connecticut
-Notre Dame
-Stanford

Last number 1 is Louisville if both South Carolina/Tennessee lose. If Louisville upsets Connecticut tomorrow or in the AAC tournament, they lock in a #1 seed.

If South Carolina or Tennessee win the SEC Tournament, they'll get the last #1 over Louisville if Louisville loses twice more to Connecticut.

#2 seeds will be 2 of Tennessee/South Carolina/Louisville, Duke or Maryland (whoever makes it further in the ACC tournament), and West Virginia or Baylor (whoever wins Big 12 Tournament.)

 

[easttexastrash]

So many things to play out in the next couple of weeks. Should be a lot of fun to watch. I still don't see a clear cut 4th #1 seed in the group. If Louisville can hang close with UCONN they have a great opportunity to snag it...if not, who knows. I am guessing that if either UT or USC win the tourney that they are more deserving since Louisville hasn't had to contend with much in the way of top 10 opponents, other than UCONN.

 

[UcMiami]

As it has been for the last month I think it will come down to ...
Can Baylor win the B12T
Can SC win the SECT
and you could add in
Can WVU win the B12T
Can TN win the SECT

If any of the above occur then they are the only real challengers to Lousiville getting a #1 seed. If Louisville loses tomorrow and in the AACT they will finish with with a 30-4 record with three losses to Uconn and a loss Dec 1 to KY (a team that was stronger at that point than they have proved since.) None of the teams above have three exceptionally good losses on their record and only one OK loss.
SC would end up with a record of 29-3 with OK losses to UNC, TA&M and TN - not bad but that is three losses to non #1 teams, and UNC was the only team they played OOC.
WVU would end up with a 29-3 record with two bad losses (OSU first game out, and TX) and one OK loss to Baylor, but that is three losses to non-#1 teams and they played no one OOC.
Baylor ends up at 28-4 with one bad loss (KU) one exceptional loss (Uconn) and two OK losses (KY and WVU) but that is 3 losses to non-#1 seeds and they played a poor OOC.
TN ends up at 27-5 with one bad loss (Vandy) one exceptional loss (ND) and three OK losses (LSU, Stanford, KY) - again three losses to non-#1 seeds. They did play a decent OOC.
The other advantage for the committee is that it covers their a__es by giving Louisville a #1 seed - that way insuring that three of the four regional sites are hosted by a #1 seed and the only site not so hosted does not have a #2 seed hosting.

 

[Vowelguy]

Duke is not a 2 seed unless they have a good ACC tourney.
Baylor will get one.

 

[ScarlettB]

Louisville can lock up a #1 seed by beating UConn tomorrow night or in the AAC tournament. If they don't win one of those two games, they could only back into a #1 with other top teams faltering. Let's see how much they want it.

 

[UConnCat]

Louisville can lock up a #1 seed by beating UConn tomorrow night or in the AAC tournament. If they don't win one of those two games, they could only back into a #1 with other top teams faltering. Let's see how much they want it.

Do you think Louisville's failure to beat UConn either tomorrow or in the AAC tournament means they didn't want it enough?

 

[doggydaddy]

Will Tennessee still be a #2 seed if they lose in the 1st round of the SEC tourney?

 

[ScarlettB]

Do you think Louisville's failure to beat UConn either tomorrow or in the AAC tournament means they didn't want it enough?

Not necessarily. I don't know that they can beat UConn, but they need to put up a really good fight. If they can't beat you in one of those two games, personally, I would not give them a #1 seed and I would not want them to get a 4th crack at beating you in the final four. I would rather see someone else get the opportunity.

 

[wire chief]

It's getting so that Stanford is always a #1 by virtue of being the best of
cream puffs. Their win over Tn is good but what else? And a bad loss to Wash. I don't expect anything different. Just grousing.

 

[UcMiami]

Not necessarily. I don't know that they can beat UConn, but they need to put up a really good fight. If they can't beat you in one of those two games, personally, I would not give them a #1 seed and I would not want them to get a 4th crack at beating you in the final four. I would rather see someone else get the opportunity.

They would only get the fourth shot if they earn it which is fine by me. I just don't see another team that has really stepped up to deserve a #1 seed over Louisville. SC has the regular season crown in the SEC but they have been beaten by some pretty mediocre teams including TN. It has been three months since Louisville lost to a team they should have beaten - no other team except ND and Uconn can say as much.

 

[UcMiami]

It's getting so that Stanford is always a #1 by virtue of being the best of
cream puffs. Their win over Tn is good but what else? And a bad loss to Wash. I don't expect anything different. Just grousing.

Agree, and unless something changes I vote the NCAA do away with a 'Western' regional - at least move it to mountain time or down to the SW where you begin to include TX teams as being in the neighborhood.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Tennessee can win the SEC Tourney, and they still wont get a #1 seed IMO.

They are a solid #2.

 

[Vowelguy]

Record against Sagarin top 25:

ND 9-0
UConn 6-0
WV 8-2
Bay 8-3
UNC 7-5
Tenn 5-3
Stan 3-1
Duke 6-5
Md 5-4
Kentucky 4-3

I don't see how Lou can get a 1 seed, unless they beat UConn.

 

[pap49cba]

Mulkey oppined in her post-game presser today that if Baylor wins the Big12 tourney they will get a #1 seed.

 

[semper]

I don't think Louisville has the talent to beat us. They have a really good coach and some fine players, but now with KML back, even if she's not tops...did you see Kara's study of our Mo on Shonni?

 

[01Neaggrad02]

"I listed the teams in alphabetical order...obviously the top overall seed will be Notre Dame or Connecticut, with a 95% chance it being UCONN. "


Can someone please explain to me how Notre Dame would be the overall number 1 if UCONN goes undefeated? Seriously?

I'd love to see Notre Dame play Louisville!


"I think if Louisville gets blasted by UCONN two more times and still manages to cling on to a #1 seed they'll go down as one of the least proven #1 seeds of all time."

UCONN was beaten by Notre Dame three times last year yet still was a #1 seed. Where do you come up with this? Then you wonder why Mike DiMauro says Boneyard people are dumb and speak out of their rear-ends.

 

[triaddukefan]

"
"I think if Louisville gets blasted by UCONN two more times and still manages to cling on to a #1 seed they'll go down as one of the least proven #1 seeds of all time."

UCONN was beaten by Notre Dame three times last year yet still was a #1 seed. Where do you come up with this? Then you wonder why Mike DiMauro says Boneyard people are dumb and speak out of their rear-ends.

1) UCONN never got blasted by ND three times last year... if i recall correctly... each game went down to the final seconds and could have gone either way.

2) ... last season UCONN defeated Duke, Maryland, Stanford, Penn State and a few other highly regarded teams. Louisville best wins this year are LSU, Oklahoma, and FSU. Big difference there

3) It shouldnt take a Duke fan to point these facts out to UCONN fan

 

[easttexastrash]

Record against Sagarin top 25:

ND 9-0
UConn 6-0
WV 8-2
Bay 8-3
UNC 7-5
Tenn 5-3
Stan 3-1
Duke 6-5
Md 5-4
Kentucky 4-3

I don't see how Lou can get a 1 seed, unless they beat UConn.

Looks like either BU or WVU is most deserving of the 4th #1 seed.