Wins needed for 2019 NCAA Bid

[HuskyHawk]

It's frustrating that this team can't seem to really put things together. Need to just go on a streak and win the next 5 or 6 without a L. Put the bubble in the rearview mirror.

 

[huskymedic]

From D1Baseball’s Week 12 Postseason Stock Report

>>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)

SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane

>>No change from last week. UConn’s No. 25 RPI and 7-7 record against the top 50 keep it off the bubble for now, but it must improve its 7-8 record in the American to secure its position. With home series coming up against Wichita State and South Florida, we expect the Huskies to take care of business.

Houston remains on the right side of the bubble even after a series loss at USF, but its footing has certainly gotten more tenuous. The Cougars are just 9-9 in the American and No. 42 in the RPI, with a 5-7 record against the top 50. We still like their chances to finish strong with home series coming up against UNLV and Tulane plus a road set at UCF.

Tulane remains the only other viable postseason contender in the American, but the Green Wave really needed to win their series against East Carolina last weekend, and they did not. At 9-5 in the American and No. 82 in the RPI, Tulane still has an outside chance if it can finish red-hot and boost that RPI 30-plus spots, but we don’t like its chances.<<

 

[ucjoet]

Important win last evening. Gets us to .500 in AAC. Off to some work appointments

Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
8 - 8 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 28 -18/ .609 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 26 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Just got back from game, unfortunately cant be there for second game of doubleheader. Beautiful day for a baseball game. Pitching was outstanding. Hope that continues and our bats get going.

Big win , in that it gets us over .500 in AAC play. A win to sweep the series would be sweet. Post season Criteria Chart is ALL Green

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
9 - 8 / .529 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 29 -18/ .617 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 25 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

We did win 3 of 4 this week, which if we did that all year we would be hosting a regional. Also we did get to .500 ( 9-9) in AAC play. I believe if the tourney was announced today we would definitely be selected. So there is a lot to be happy about.

My only concern is that we seem to be teetering on the edge. Every game is so important, and I am hoping we can get the wins needed. Thinking a minimum of 4 -3 over next 7 games, but really hoping for at least 5 -2. If we go 4 - 3, I think we would need a couple of wins in AAC tourney. It would also be nice if we can get a 2 or 3 seed in AAC tourney. That way we avoid ECU until championship game.

Lets win 3 of 4 this week.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
9 - 9 / .500 % .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 29 -19/ .604 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 28 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[SAMCRO]

SCHOOL	CONF	OVERALL
ECU	15-2	35-11
Tulane	10-6	28-18
Cincinnati	11-9	22-24
Houston	9-9	28-18
UConn	9-9	29-19
UCF	8-12	28-19
Memphis	6-9	22-21
Wichita State	6-12	21-26
USF	5-11	23-21

In conference remaining games:
UConn 3 v USF and 3 @ Tulane game (and 1 @ URI OOC)
Tulane 1 v UCF, 3 @ Houston and 3 v UConn
Cincinnati 1 v ECU and 3 @ Memphis
Houston 3 v Tulane and 3 @ UCF
UCF 1 @ Tulane and 3 v Houston

My guess:
7-0 or 6-1 locks is in the tourney. We don’t have the bats or consistency to achieve this (would love to be wrong)

5-2 probably gets us in, but puts us in bubble territory and may require a win or 2 in the conference tourney.

4-3 probably requires us winning 3 in the tourney, and maybe winning the tourney.

Sub .500 and we will need to win the tournament to make the field.

 

[huskymedic]

Daily Campus: Baseball: Strong showing needed in final weeks of the season to secure NCAA tournament spot

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

Baseball America's Projected Field of 64 (5/8/19)

UConn projected as the #3 seed in the Oxford MS w/ host Ole'Miss (#16 seed overall). NC State and Bryant also in Regional.

ECU still hosting in Greenville (#7 seed overall)
Houston as the #3 seed in the Lubbock Texas Regional

 

[huskymedic]

Baseball America's Projected Field of 64 (5/8/19)

UConn projected as the #3 seed in the Oxford MS Regional w/ host Ole'Miss (#16 seed overall). NC State and Bryant also in Regional.

ECU still hosting in Greenville (#7 seed overall)
Houston as the #3 seed in the Lubbock Texas Regional

D1Baseball College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: May 8

UConn projected as the #2 seed in the Chapel Hill Regional w/ host North Carolina (#12 seed overall). Tennessee and Elon also in the Regional

ECU still hosting in Greenville as the #9 overall see.
Houston is the #3 seed in Oxford MS.
UCF is listed under the "First Five Out"

>>East Carolina is right on the cusp of the top eight and comes in at No. 9 this week. The Pirates continue to dominate the American Athletic Conference and have a strong RPI. It would not be surprising to see ECU enter the top eight at some point soon.<<

Here are how the overall bids breakdown by conference: SEC (10), ACC (9), Pac 12 (5), Big Ten (4), Big 12 (4), American (3), Missouri Valley (3) and Big West (2).

 

[huskymedic]

 

[huskymedic]

Clearly on a roll...

 

[huskymedic]

Clearly on a roll...

UCF also took out #17/18 Miami 8-7 tonight.

 

[dbmill]

From Aaron Fitt:

Postseason Stock Report: Week 13 At-Large, National Seed Analysis • D1Baseball

Texas Tech surged into top-eight seed position in our latest field of 64 projection. Aaron Fitt breaks down the races for national seeds and takes a conference-by-conference look at the at-large picture.

d1baseball.com

>American Athletic Conference (3 total bids)
SAFELY IN: East Carolina, Connecticut
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Houston
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Tulane, UCF

No change from last week. UConn and Houston remain in solid shape with 9-9 conference records and RPIs of No. 26 and No. 37, respectively. If both can finish .500 in the American, they should get in easily, and even 11-13 might be enough, though a losing conference mark would make for a nervous selection Monday. Houston has the more challenging remaining schedule: vs. Tulane, at UCF. The Huskies host South Florida and then travel to Tulane.

The Green Wave is back in second place at 10-7, 5.5 games behind ECU. But Tulane is stuck at No. 94 in the RPI and just 2-7 against the top 50, making its at-large hopes a real long shot. But if it can finish with series wins at Houston and vs. UConn, the RPI should make a big jump, and its case would get very interesting. But we aren’t projecting that to happen.

UCF has quietly snuck closer to the bubble after winning a road series at Tulane and a midweek game at Miami, getting the knights up 14 spots to No. 53 in the RPI. They’re still just 9-12 in the American, but a home series win over Houston the final weekend would give them at least a shot. UCF also gets a good RPI road game midweek at FAU.<

 

[uconnbaseball]

Our second sweep of the year (lol MSU) would make us much less nervous.

 

[ucjoet]

I seem to start each update, by stating " it was a big win". But yesterday I believe truly was a big win. A comeback victory at home keyed by a clutch HR from Prato, and great pitching. Never like doubleheaders, but need at minimum a split. But really hoping for our first AAC weekend sweep.

If we take care of business this weekend, it sets up a huge series with Tulane next weekend. Would love to get a 2 or 3 seed and avoid ECU until possible championship game.

We are tied for 3rd in AAC if you go by loss column with 9 losses. We are 1 of only 2 teams (ECU the other) with a winning % (9-8) vs Q1 teams. So right now we are in good shape. But we need to keep winning.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
10 - 9 / .526% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 30-19/ .612 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 26 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[seeya27]

I have followed the team a little bit, but not closely, this season. What are our chances for an NCAA bid? Does require us winning the ACC?

 

[uconnbaseball]

I have followed the team a little bit, but not closely, this season. What are our chances for an NCAA bid? Does require us winning the ACC?

We do not need to win the conference. .500 ball the rest of the way probably gets us in, .600 ball would for sure.

 

[DefCONNOne]

I have followed the team a little bit, but not closely, this season. What are our chances for an NCAA bid? Does require us winning the ACC?

Is it possible to win a conference we aren't in?

 

[seeya27]

We do not need to win the conference. .500 ball the rest of the way probably gets us in, .600 ball would for sure.


Thanks UCBaseball!

 

[seeya27]

Is it possible to win a conference we aren't in?

Wishful thinking I guess.

 

[ucjoet]

Exactly what probably most of us were afraid of. Losing a series to a lower level AAC team at home, that now puts us on the bubble with much work to do. I know the term Must win is overused but need at minimum to take 3 of next 4, and then probably win at least 2 in AAC tourney to have a chance. That gets us to 35 wins, and an At large invitation could go either way.

Also not for certain( depending on other games), but would need to sweep Tulane to have any chance of getting into 2 - 3 seed area in AAC tourney.

Lets get the Rhode Island win and go from there.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
10 - 11/ .476% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 30-21/ .588 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 33 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

Exactly what probably most of us were afraid of. Losing a series to a lower level AAC team at home, that now puts us on the bubble with much work to do. I know the term Must win is overused but need at minimum to take 3 of next 4, and then probably win at least 2 in AAC tourney to have a chance. That gets us to 35 wins, and an At large invitation could go either way.

Also not for certain( depending on other games), but would need to sweep Tulane to have any chance of getting into 2 - 3 seed area in AAC tourney.

Lets get the Rhode Island win and go from there.

Go Huskies


Current record.. season goal
4 - 5 / .444% .... 5 - 4 / .556 - Top 55 RPI (out of conf)
7 - 4 / .636% .... 7 - 4 / .636 - Over 55 RPI (out of conf)
9 - 1 / .900% ... 9 - 2 / .818 - New England games
10 - 11/ .476% .... 14 - 10 / .583 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney


Post season Criteria
(1) 30-21/ .588 ..... 37-22 / .617 - Overall record

(2) 33 .... <50- RPI

(3) 4th ....Top 4 AAC


CHART Code
red = below goal
green = at or above goal
black = not yet applicable

UConn's RPI has taken a hit, but it is still in decent shape. However, as you point out, the AAC conference record is not, and that is where the trouble lies. Still, if UConn takes 2 out of 3 at Tulane (it won't be easy) and wins at least 2 games in the AAC conference tournament, then I think the Huskies would be in pretty good shape for an NCAA at large bid.

 

[huskymedic]

AAC Standings heading into the final weekend:

All games Thursday>Saturday
Memphis @ ECU
UConn @ Tulane
Cincinnati done - Final weekend OOC
Houston @ UCF
Wichita @ USF for final spot in Tourney

*Tulane & Memphis had a game cancelled due to weather*

 

[ucjoet]

If my facts are correct, if we sweep Tulane and Houston does Not sweep UCF. We would be the 3rd seed.
This would be a great weekend to get our first AAC sweep.
Go Huskies