Will there be a basketball season, if no fans are allowed in the stadiums?

[RichZ]

Yours is a reasonable if premature curiosity.

One thing I can offer is that in recent years, I have shifted from a personally self-confident laxness regarding an annual flu shot toward realistic recognition that my flu shot is a contribution to a greater good beyond myself.

We are witnessing with COVID-19 a similar risk-benefit tension and lack of clarity that certain recommended measures are for the purpose of not endangering others more so than specifically protecting ourselves from dangers that might not deeply or directly threaten us.

Case in point -- the anti-vax movement brought back measles and polio.

 

[8893]

Fauci has said that that is exactly the plan once we work through this initial burst. I'm paraphrasing but essentially he said the current shutdown is needed to prevent overwhelming our healthcare system. Once the active cases drop and hospital beds free up contract tracing and isolation is the game plan. That's just my recollection from when I was actually paying attention to the daily briefings. I'm not sure if that position has evolved.

I hope that that's correct. I didn't think we had the testing capacity to accomplish it within the time that many states want to open back up.

 

[CL82]

I hope that that's correct. I didn't think we had the testing capacity to accomplish it within the time that many states want to open back up.

Me too. One thing about Fauci that I really appreciate, is he doesn't lock into time frames. He understands that there are economic and political considerations, but that's not his issue. When the numbers are right, he advocate a switch, until then it is the status quo. You can tell he's groomed the president on this. He's much more vague on his assertions lately, or at least when I stopped listening to the briefings.

 

[8893]

Me too. One thing about Fauci that I really appreciate, is he doesn't lock into time frames. He understands that there are economic and political considerations, but that's not his issue. When the numbers are right, he advocate a switch, until then it is the status quo. You can tell he's groomed the president on this. He's much more vague on his assertions lately, or at least when I stopped listening to the briefings.

Agreed.

 

[Excalibur]

It

but the reality is we will all mostly have to accept that there will be some risk to do the things we need to do to make a living and survive. If anyone thinks the US will just stay shut down for 6-12 months over this I can tell you right now that isn’t happening.

Nobody thinks that, but there will damn well be a cost-benefit analysis on certain activities, and sporting events/concerts etc will probably fall on the wrong side of that analysis a lot longer than others.

 

[superjohn]

Fauci has said that that is exactly the plan once we work through this initial burst. I'm paraphrasing but essentially he said the current shutdown is needed to prevent overwhelming our healthcare system. Once the active cases drop and hospital beds free up contract tracing and isolation is the game plan. That's just my recollection from when I was actually paying attention to the daily briefings. I'm not sure if that position has evolved.


Again I believe that that Fauci said that a possible vaccine exists and is in testing. IIRC, March 2021 was the date that it would available. Again, though, this is old news and, much like recruiting, the COVID-19 crisis is fluid.

There's at least a half dozen vaccines in some form of trials but I just don't know how we can put a date on it.

 

[NJHusky]

If people knew how incredibly low the mortality rate is for everyone who isn't old or has heart disease, respiratory disease, or diabetes then they would probably be out in droves when things open back up. A plan should always be focused around protecting that segment of society.

exactly. Isolate those at risk. Test those that interact regularly with those groups.
I also wonder if this will convince people to actually do something about their diet & exercise to vanquish a preventable/treatable disease like type 2 diabetes.

 

[Chin Diesel]

GHO/Travelers going to be played in June as a TV only event.

I will assume golfers will have to play in the event otherwise it's a vacant course. Golfers will need rental vehicles, course will need staff to groom and sustain course. TV will need infrastructure set up. Probably need some security too.
Probably a few hundred people and volunteers to support the golfers, course and TV.

 

[methodology]

No one knows the answer to this at this point. It's useless to speculate.

California said no sports or concerts til 2021 its not speculation at this point

 

[krinklecut]

This is a good point but with the regular flu we have an annual vaccine and tens of thousands of people die from the condition each year. So, even with a vaccine it stands to reason that plenty of people will still pass away from COVID. So do we just stay hunkered down for years? It's an honest question. Basically you can never be around people until the deaths are down to zero? Cuz that isn't happening and if that is the case then what is an acceptable number?

No - with a vaccine the death rate hopefully drops down to flu levels. Getting tired of people talking about how many people the flu killed. The flu killed 30,000 americans last year. Covid has killed 30,000 in the past 6 weeks, with social distancing in place. The two are not comparable.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Nobody thinks that, but there will damn well be a cost-benefit analysis on certain activities, and sporting events/concerts etc will probably fall on the wrong side of that analysis a lot longer than others.

Yes, but you also have to realize that the "cost" part of this is huge for universities on the sports side. They are certainly going to be pressured by the networks to fulfill their contracts and have college FB and college Bball even if it is in empty stadiums. There are too many parties with money at stake (the NCAA, the universities and the media corporations). Universities may have to make the decision to limit or eliminate fans at events, but I think it's very unlikely they will not have any games at all. As you mention, it'll be a decision about financial vs. health risk and it will end up being some middle ground (help ease the financial risk by playing the games, ease the health risk by eliminating fans from attendance). If anything, having no fans will lead to some of the best TV ratings we've ever seen and should help the likes of ESPN, FOX, etc.

 

[CL82]

There's at least a half dozen vaccines in some form of trials but I just don't know how we can put a date on it.

I think the there is a standard clinical protocol that takes years. My understanding is that the working target is a one year trial. So if the vaccine started in March it can be available in March. That assumes that production happens prior to the end of the clinical trial, likely based on early results. Again though, I have no expertise on this whatsoever. That is entirely based on my recollection of one or more briefings, so take it with a large grain of salt. I'm sure there are guy on the board who actually have expertise and give insight into whether that is accurate or even possible. @pj is one, I think.

 

[8893]

I think the there is a standard clinical protocol that takes years. My understanding is that the working target is a one year trial. So if the vaccine started in March it can be available in March. That assumes that production happens prior to the end of the clinical trial, likely based on early results. Again though, I have no expertise on this whatsoever. That is entirely based on my recollection of one or more briefings, so take it with a large grain of salt. I'm sure there are guy on the board who actually have expertise and give insight into whether that is accurate or even possible. @pj is one, I think.

I thought I read something a couple weeks ago to the effect that Bill Gates (through his foundation) was spending billions to produce seven potential vaccines before they even know if they will be effective, the thinking being that at least one of them is likely to work, even if the money is wasted on the others. This would put them way ahead of the standard timetable because production will begin before the clinical trials have been completed.

ETA:

Bill Gates is spending billions to produce 7 potential coronavirus vaccines

The billionaire told The Daily Show the move will waste billions of dollars, but will save precious time.

thehill.com

 

[Vuce]

No - with a vaccine the death rate hopefully drops down to flu levels. Getting tired of people talking about how many people the flu killed. The flu killed 30,000 americans last year. Covid has killed 30,000 in the past 6 weeks, with social distancing in place. The two are not comparable.

So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.

 

[superjohn]

So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.

guillotine.

 

[8893]

So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.

Why would you expect it to be any different than the situation with any other flu vaccine? Again, you have answered you own question. No one will be mandated to get it.

 

[Robertelamin]

So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.

It can’t see it being mandated. The people that don’t get it will just take on the risk

 

[krinklecut]

So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.

I...I don't know? What happens to them is they take on the risk of falling ill from an extremely deadly virus when they could have just gotten vaccinated.

 

[gampelcrazies]

If they don't have students on campus during the fall semester I wonder if they would cancel the non-conference schedule and have conference play during the spring semester. That is if things were to get better. Instead of just flat out canceling it.

Also I wonder if the season were to happen if UConn would just play games at Gampel because the attendance would be smaller than XL and wouldn't make the players travel to Hartford.

 

[pj]

But if the vaccination turns out to be harmful, isn't there some risk that by introducing a large percentage of the population to this risk that you ultimately hurt more people than would have been the case if you simply let the virus run its course? (I'm by no means an anti-vaccine guy, and get a flu shot every year)

In principle, you could make a vaccine that would kill 0.1% of those vaccinated. But it would not be easy. It's basically a sure thing that any vaccine will be safer than the virus. You should have to prove efficacy, but you can do that in 6 weeks if you test it in a population that is highly exposed to the virus.

Safety, especially the relative safety of different vaccines, takes longer to evaluate. Therefore, I wouldn't compel anyone to take a vaccine until it was proven. However, with lots of vaccines out there and people getting experience quickly, people could chart a reasonably intelligent course after a few months of experience.

 

[freescooter]

I'm more curious about how many fans will actually show up once they're allowed back in arenas. Even if everything is back to "normal" by the fall I'm not sure I'll be going to any sporting events for the 2020-21 season.

Surely the diehards and people who think COVID-19 is a hoax will be lining up on the first day, but I don't think arenas/stadiums will be full right off the bat.

That is consistent with recent polling. 75% say they don’t plan to attend games like they previously did. Just like folks are not going to restaurants or the theatre or other events, unless and until there is at least some level of confidence they will be safe. My guess is that attendance will be down for virtually all sports if they are played. The wild card of course is the question of whether covid19 comes back after the initial surge. If it does that will be the end of sports as we have become accustomed to seeing them.

 

[Kathy]

Do you see some pathway to having traditional college campuses that the rest of the world doesn't see?

Without a vaccine, robust antibody testing, and reliable contact tracing, students will not be back on campus. Those things are not going to be ready by the fall semester.

Universities are already discussing. No summer classes and they said they need a minimum 6 weeks to plan for fall semester. Not sure how they can open up dorms without a vaccine or at least antibody and virus testing. BTW - South Korea said that they are finding people who had the virus, recovered and tested negative are testing positive again- not a huge sample yet but concerning if that is the case.

 

[CL82]

The wild card of course is the question of whether covid19 comes back after the initial surge. If it does that will be the end of sports as we have become accustomed to seeing them.

Pretty sure it will. Not as bad but we haven't seen the end of it until there is a vaccine. (And even that isn't "an end" per se.) The thing is this a called a "novel" virus for a reason. It's jump from animals to humans is new and accordingly we are unprepared to deal with it. 18 months down the road there should be significant "herd immunity" and with it significantly lower risk to the population as a whole.

(Again this is well out of my area of expertise. Just my sense of how this stuff works.)

 

[freescooter]

So here is another question...….let's say we get a vaccine. Will every single person be mandated to get vaccinated? What if some folks refuse? What happens to them? Locked up? There are plenty of people out there who refuse to get vaccinated for other stuff.

Nobody will be forced at gunpointvto be vaccinated. Some will be required by jobs. Health care workers are already required to get flu shots for instance as are some folks in other industries. I could see it being required for school enrollment like many other vaccines are. Just as we hope enough people have enough sense to stay home, Social distance etc., and most do, most will get vaccinated if it’s available. Those people will be safe just as they are from the flu and the measles. With few exceptions (eg those who have some legitimate medical reason) sensible folks will do it.

 

[HooperScooper]

This might be the most depressing thread ever on the Boneyard. I refuse to read past the first page.