Why The Selection Committee is a Joke

[Stew Crew]

Another big shift I noticed is that teams that makes runs are not rewarded nearly as much as in the past. 10 years ago, an Auburn or Iowa State, by winning their conference championship, would have been bumped up at least 1 line, if not 2, especially with most of the other top teams losing. Auburn and Iowa State are basically where they were before the tournaments began.

 

[LStudfellow]

On the one hand, I get the "it doesn't matter who they put in our bracket, we are the best team so why whine about it?" crowd. Basically, you are right. So, no need to copy and reply back. I get that, 100%.

But that fact does not take away from the fact that this "Committee" did the absolute worst job I have ever seen, and then sent a guy out who was utterly clueless to try and explain away their utter BS.

Not only did we get the highest ranked 2, 3 and 4 seeds in our bracket (it was not even close, by any applicable metric), but also received the 2nd highest ranked 16 seed (how the hell does UNC get the easiest 16's as the worst #1 seed as well as the extra advantage to have a play-in winner instead of us, with two teams that were 'closer in mileage' to Brooklyn (Howard, #276 in KenPom or Wagner #293) than Stetson, #218???

We obviously received a bracket that was largely done by Friday, as at that point they considered us the 3rd #1 seed. Totally obvious, totally biased, and for that committee chair to come out and say they were working 'tirelessly' until 2 a.m. Saturday night is totally and utter crap. If they were in that room until 2 a.m. it is because they were partying, plain and simple. Typical bureaucrat who will sit in front of you, lie to your face but expect no push back for their lies, deceit and 100% lazy effort.

It is also crystally clear that they do not even follow the same criteria from year to year. Just think back to 2011 and how we jumped at least 3 seed lines by winning the Big East Tournament with 5 wins in 5 days. We finished that year 9-9 in the Big East and were seeded 9th for the BE tournament. No way we were higher than a 6th seed for the NCAA Tournament going into conference tournament weekend.

Yet, here we are this year where winning their respective conference tournaments did nothing for Iowa State, Illinois or Auburn? That is just plain nonsensical. Honestly, it feels like once again we are supposed to keep our criticisms to a whisper because they roll out a guy with the "Doctor" title before his name, and that is supposed to make him and that committee beyond reproach. Uhhhh, no. Sorry. Incompetence and laziness is still incompetence and laziness, no matter who gets up in front of me and tries to sell it to me as something otherwise. The 'mileage' line was as ridiculous as it was farcical.

Oh, and when did it become a part of the criteria that a #1 seed with the advantage of playing relatively close to home must then be 'penalized' with the hardest bracket? I guess that become a criteria when, exactly? THIS YEAR?!?!?! I never, ever heard a previous committee make mention of it when #1 seeded UNC and Duke got a path to the Final 4 that would include playing games in and close to North Carolina. We used to be told that was part of their "reward". Such an utter and complete joke!

Now, let's go win this Tournament and give these bureaucratic idiots the double-barreled middle finger they have so richly earned and deserve!

 

[HuskyFich]

Avoiding groupthink is good. It leads to more interesting discussions and better outcomes overall. And they do have all the same base metrics on the team sheets the committee is given (NET/Quads, KenPom, BPI, SOR, KPI, road/neutral splits, strength of schedule splits, etc.), but people are allowed to believe and/or bring up other metrics not on the sheets (like WAB, T-Rank, EvanMiya, etc.)

Yep. All is perfectly fine until the last sentence. I just feel the members should have to justify their selections with analytical evidence to prove their reasoning. Or at least give a tally of which members were in/out on each team.

Watching them try to analytically justify Virginia & Mich St would be the equivalent of a SNL skit.

 

[auror]

Yep. All is perfectly fine until the last sentence. I just feel the members should have to justify their selections with analytical evidence to prove their reasoning. Or at least give a tally of which members were in/out on each team.

Watching them try to analytically justify Virginia & Mich St would be the equivalent of a SNL skit.

Virginia and Mich St are easy to justify analytically, but just with different analytics (resume like SOR for VIrginia vs. predictive like KenPom for Mich St). The real issue is that the committee fluctuates between breaths of between wanting the most deserving and the strongest teams in the field and they are measured by different metrics and resumes.

 

[HuskyFich]

Virginia and Mich St are easy to justify analytically, but just with different analytics (resume like SOR for VIrginia vs. predictive like KenPom for Mich St). The real issue is that the committee fluctuates between breaths of between wanting the most deserving and the strongest teams in the field and they are measured by different metrics and resumes.

Yeah. You and I are basically say the same thing. Please selection committee, just give us consistency, lol.

 

[Doctor Hoop]

The committee definitely had their brackets set without taking into account results over the weekend and adjusting accordingly. Other than slotting new 1-bid conference winners in their slots they left it with UConn as the third #1 seed. That may be the biggest insult, as we probably should have been #1 or #2 at that point. Iowa St. probably should have been the 4th #1 ahead of UNC, or at worst the top #2. Kentucky, UNC, Duke, Virginia and Mich. St. were given gifts on silver platters.

That said, look at the bracket. We may see FAU and Auburn (who has to get past SD St. or we see them instead), but we'll only see one of Iowa St. and Illinois if the seeds hold. And those two teams have to get past Wash St. and BYU to make it that far.

Yes, all those teams can be p-o'd that they got slotted with UConn, but they have work ahead of them to even subject themselves to that nightmare.

 

[BlueandOG]

I am very disappointed to see how the Big East was treated by the selection committee. There is no reason why St John's and Providence were dumped over all of the ACC and MW schools.

 

[navery12]

They put a clown yes man to go on national tv and explain a biased probably fixed process and it came off looking like complete BS. If I passed this guy in the street I would heckle him worse than the opposing fans have heckled Danny. This guy should know anyone who does not live in the P2 world or the Midwest absolutely despises him. They took the competitive balance out of March Madness. It’s only a couple years until people like Dr. PHD FOS…..is gone and they treat this like a business. Can’t wait for that too happen. You know it’s been so long since we were fighting for a high seed I kind of forgot how bad it is. Like when they put UCLA and us in the same bracket during Ray’s last year. The national championship was played when we played UCLA. This Midwest biased has hurt us over the years. We might have 7 chips if it wasn’t for this bias. On the flip side not one team ranked 2-4 in our bracket was happy too see that they were put into our bracket. I will be rooting as much for Pukedo to lose on the sled ride down the mountain as for us climbing the mountain. It’s funny all the people that roasted me when I suggested the selection committee had a mid west biased. Not one is coming at me today. I was hoping that would happen. Especially from my favorite antagonist @navery12. Wonder if he thinks it’s still all in my head. Yesterday brought me back to the nineties and all the bracket BS that happened to us. Of course the conference tournaments did not matter. The Big10 tournament always ends half hour before the selection show. How could they matter. Same as the other P2 conference the SEC. Football money hard at work to protect all the P2 conferences. It only bothers me because it is so obvious. After steaming about it most of last night this is where I landed. They knew we are so dominant the only way to make it competitive is put every team possible that has a style that might work against us in our bracket. And like many said that was finished by last Thursday. We get to select our sites so we get hosed for dominating. Let’s make Brooklyn and TD real home venues. Now it’s time for the fans to step up and buy every ticket. I am willing to contribute $10k to a collective that will buy as money tickets for UConn fans who cannot afford to go. I am spending double that to me in Brooklyn and Boston. Was not going to Boston but now I bought tickets for the second weekend. They are very good tickets and I paid for them just so I can find the ncaa committee group that they send to all venues so I can heckle them. This just opened up a lot of all wounds from when I lived in Chicago and had to argue with all those Midwest people who think they always that the moral high ground as the passive aggressive punks they are. Does anyone remember how bad it was in the it’s getting screwed on selection Sunday years.

 

[uconnever]

On the one hand, I get the "it doesn't matter who they put in our bracket, we are the best team so why whine about it?" crowd. Basically, you are right. So, no need to copy and reply back. I get that, 100%.

But that fact does not take away from the fact that this "Committee" did the absolute worst job I have ever seen, and then sent a guy out who was utterly clueless to try and explain away their utter BS.

Not only did we get the highest ranked 2, 3 and 4 seeds in our bracket (it was not even close, by any applicable metric), but also received the 2nd highest ranked 16 seed (how the hell does UNC get the easiest 16's as the worst #1 seed as well as the extra advantage to have a play-in winner instead of us, with two teams that were 'closer in mileage' to Brooklyn (Howard, #276 in KenPom or Wagner #293) than Stetson, #218???

We obviously received a bracket that was largely done by Friday, as at that point they considered us the 3rd #1 seed. Totally obvious, totally biased, and for that committee chair to come out and say they were working 'tirelessly' until 2 a.m. Saturday night is totally and utter crap. If they were in that room until 2 a.m. it is because they were partying, plain and simple. Typical bureaucrat who will sit in front of you, lie to your face but expect no push back for their lies, deceit and 100% lazy effort.

It is also crystally clear that they do not even follow the same criteria from year to year. Just think back to 2011 and how we jumped at least 3 seed lines by winning the Big East Tournament with 5 wins in 5 days. We finished that year 9-9 in the Big East and were seeded 9th for the BE tournament. No way we were higher than a 6th seed for the NCAA Tournament going into conference tournament weekend.

Yet, here we are this year where winning their respective conference tournaments did nothing for Iowa State, Illinois or Auburn? That is just plain nonsensical. Honestly, it feels like once again we are supposed to keep our criticisms to a whisper because they roll out a guy with the "Doctor" title before his name, and that is supposed to make him and that committee beyond reproach. Uhhhh, no. Sorry. Incompetence and laziness is still incompetence and laziness, no matter who gets up in front of me and tries to sell it to me as something otherwise. The 'mileage' line was as ridiculous as it was farcical.

Oh, and when did it become a part of the criteria that a #1 seed with the advantage of playing relatively close to home must then be 'penalized' with the hardest bracket? I guess that become a criteria when, exactly? THIS YEAR?!?!?! I never, ever heard a previous committee make mention of it when #1 seeded UNC and Duke got a path to the Final 4 that would include playing games in and close to North Carolina. We used to be told that was part of their "reward". Such an utter and complete joke!

Now, let's go win this Tournament and give these bureaucratic idiots the double-barreled middle finger they have so richly earned and deserve!

They sent him out there so they can laugh at him trying to explain it. They were watching it live laughing at him say nothing, I understood nothing he said.

 

[TheShot1990]

NCAA committee, here is Ken's explanation of his ranking methodology. Where's yours? We want to read that one next. As long as you followed your previously well-established criteria, we will have no complaints. Just tell us what it is.

https://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/

 

[HuskyHawk]

I know you're happy to be in a conference better than the American, and better than the Big East. But since your team isn't even in, and our team is the #1 overall seed, maybe this board isn't the place to try to "rub our noses in it". Try feeling superior over on Georgetown's board.

 

[Rico444]

That said, look at the bracket. We may see FAU and Auburn (who has to get past SD St. or we see them instead), but we'll only see one of Iowa St. and Illinois if the seeds hold. And those two teams have to get past Wash St. and BYU to make it that far.

This is why I'm not worried about it. 8/9 seeds are always a little scary, but FAU probably should have been a bubble team, so to me they're not as strong as a usual 8/9. Then there's Auburn, who's good but had only one Q1 win going into the conference tournament. So I understand that KenPom and the computers love them, but they mostly racked up those numbers against mediocre competition. Iowa State is good, but every 1 and 2 seed is good. Arizona was ranked #1 in the country earlier in the year, and just last week Tennessee was called the best team outside of Uconn/Purdue/Houston.

 

[Tex-Lager93]

Iowa State lands in the East as the "number 8" team despite discussion as a #1 (the clear #5 team)...because their non-conference strength of schedule...and their distance to the region...wut. Just pick the handful of real metrics and plug it into AI. Where it lands, it lands. These yahoos don't know how to seed teams.

 

[icednct]

The Mountain West getting 5 teams?
Put those 5 against St Johns, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova and Butler and lets see who wins... Come on!!

Big East got hosed. The teams that got snubbed all played difficult non-conference games they shouldn't be punished for that!
The likes of Butler and even DePaul had good wins out of conference which just goes to show how good the conference is.
Villanova got hosed for playing a gauntlet non conference and ran out of gas against some hungry in state teams... If they played all cupcakes they would have won all those games... Clown show this committee is.

 

[Tenspro2002]

View attachment 97823 It sucks that I was right about this.

It must be awesome being Michigan State and knowing, every year, before the season even begins, that the sheer difficulty of their schedule -- regardless of how they perform in those games (14 losses!!) -- will be enough for the Committee to put them in the field.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Another big shift I noticed is that teams that makes runs are not rewarded nearly as much as in the past. 10 years ago, an Auburn or Iowa State, by winning their conference championship, would have been bumped up at least 1 line, if not 2, especially with most of the other top teams losing. Auburn and Iowa State are basically where they were before the tournaments began.

The Committee is too lazy to adjust their brackets based on results from Friday and Saturday, nevermind Sunday.

They shouldn't be doing this and should find people eager to do the work.

 

[REB1094]

There’s a reasonable case that the East region was miserably botched, and the most likely explanation is that the brackets were finalized on Thursday except for the order of the 1 seeds, and the autobids if there was an upset

There’s also a reasonable case from Auburn/Iowa St/Illinois fans that they went on a tear to unexpectedly win P5 tournaments, and their reward is to be put in the same region as the overall #1

The path is harder than it should be, but each game is essentially a home game and UConn will still be favored every single round, no matter what

Lets go Huskies.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

Wins against Top-5 Kenpom teams needed to reach Final Four (to chalk):

UConn(1) = 2
Houston(1) = 0
Purdue(1) = 0
UNC(1) = 0

Iowa State(2) = 2
Arizona(2) = 0
Tennessee(2) = 1
Marquette(2) = 1

Illinois(3) = 2
Creighton(3) = 1
Baylor(3) = 0
Kentucky(3) = 1

Auburn(4) = 2
Duke(4) = 1
Alabama(4) = 0
Kansas(4) = 1

Explain to me why, as the top overall seed, we need to beat two top 5 teams to make the Final Four, while for 11-loss Alabama (who finished 5th in the SEC), the number is zero?

There’s no defense for the bracket the committee put out. The other top-4 seeds in our bracket are also pissed - and rightly so. You can’t put 3 Top-5 Kenpom teams in the same bracket if you’re being even remotely serious.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

Some of you guys (most of you guys) follow this stuff way more closely than I do. What was this committee member droning on about with "mileage" being the determining factor as to some of these teams being slotted in the East? I've never heard that explanation before and it seems completely insane to me. (Auburn plays in Spokane this week.)

 

[UConnSwag11]

Last year, UCONN helped the Big East because they destroyed everyone OOC and their metrics were amazing. Going into conference play and losing those games boosted the Big East. Didn’t happen this year.

 

[kobe]

The Mountain West getting 5 teams?
Put those 5 against St Johns, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova and Butler and lets see who wins... Come on!!

Big East got hosed. The teams that got snubbed all played difficult non-conference games they shouldn't be punished for that!
The likes of Butler and even DePaul had good wins out of conference which just goes to show how good the conference is.
Villanova got hosed for playing a gauntlet non conference and ran out of gas against some hungry in state teams... If they played all cupcakes they would have won all those games... Clown show this committee is.

creighton got blown out by two mountain west teams. try again friend.

 

[navery12]

Some of you guys (most of you guys) follow this stuff way more closely than I do. What was this committee member droning on about with "mileage" being the determining factor as to some of these teams being slotted in the East? I've never heard that explanation before and it seems completely insane to me. (Auburn plays in Spokane this week.)

It's a really weird way to say they put the top 4 seeds in regions based on geographic proximity. So when it came time to place Auburn the options were East or West (since Tennessee was in the Midwest as a 2 seed and Kentucky was in the South as a 3 seed already). So they got to stay closer to home with the East over Alabama one spot lower on the S curve

 

[huskyjawz]

Another big shift I noticed is that teams that makes runs are not rewarded nearly as much as in the past. 10 years ago, an Auburn or Iowa State, by winning their conference championship, would have been bumped up at least 1 line, if not 2, especially with most of the other top teams losing. Auburn and Iowa State are basically where they were before the tournaments began.

That's pure laziness by the committee and total BS. The committee rep used to come on TV and explain how they had different scenarios based on which team would win the late games on Sunday. Now they don't talk about it because they don't do it.

 

[businesslawyer]

Wins against Top-5 Kenpom teams needed to reach Final Four (to chalk):

UConn(1) = 2
Houston(1) = 0
Purdue(1) = 0
UNC(1) = 0

Iowa State(2) = 2
Arizona(2) = 0
Tennessee(2) = 1
Marquette(2) = 1

Illinois(3) = 2
Creighton(3) = 1
Baylor(3) = 0
Kentucky(3) = 1

Auburn(4) = 2
Duke(4) = 1
Alabama(4) = 0
Kansas(4) = 1

Explain to me why, as the top overall seed, we need to beat two top 5 teams to make the Final Four, while for 11-loss Alabama (who finished 5th in the SEC), the number is zero?

There’s no defense for the bracket the committee put out. The other top-4 seeds in our bracket are also pissed - and rightly so. You can’t put 3 Top-5 Kenpom teams in the same bracket if you’re being even remotely serious.

The simple answer is that you are using KenPom to represent 100% of your analysis, and the Committee considers many ratings and factors. Ken Pom cares how much you beat lousy teams by. Many don’t think that should be a factor, and resume based rankings don’t give margin of victory any weight whatsoever. Just like — I don’t know — the NBA and MLB and the NFL.